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Nickel – Electrification may boost demand

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ETF Securities Commodities Research: Nickel - Electrification may boost demand

ETF Securities Commodities Research: Nickel – Electrification may boost demand

Highlights

  • Nickel demand continues to outstrip supply.
  • China’s shift to quality rather quantity may help nickel demand.
  • Mine closures in Philippines constrain supply.
  • Electrification of vehicles likely to continue to increase demand for nickel in battery usage.

Industrial metals as a group have staged a recovery since 2016, following five consecutive years of decline between 2011 and 2015. Although zinc is the only metal to have recovered its losses (in nominal, not real terms) since 2011, the Bloomberg Commodity index has rallied 65% since it hit a trough at the beginning of 2016. Nickel is the furthest away from 2011 prices, despite having risen 77% from its 2016 lows (source: Bloomberg). We believe that there is further potential for price gains amid structural changes in demand and supply.

Supply deficit

Mine supply has been unable to keep up with demand in recent years as miners cut back on investment during the period of weak prices. According to the UN International Nickel Study Group, primary nickel production will fall short of primary nickel usage by 148,000 tonnes (8.7% of demand) in 2018, marking the third consecutive year of a supply deficit in the metal.

Steel production forecast to grow

According to the International Stainless Steel Forum, steel production in 2017 grew by approximately 5% and is forecast to grow by around the same rate in 2018. Steel production accounts for the lion’s share of nickel consumption (67%).

China’s focus on environment

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), a low-grade ferronickel primarily produced in China (for domestic usage), has experienced strong growth in recent decades as China’s urbanisation and construction boom has boosted demand for the metal. However, NPI production fell in 2016 and 2017 and China’s focus on better environmental outcomes could reduce its reliance on NPI in favour of higher quality nickel products. That shift will tighten the supply of higher grades of nickel ore. China’s demand for global nickel is likely to rise.

Philippine mine suspension still under review

When Philippine interim environment minister, Regina Lopez, failed to secure a permanent position, her decision to shutter 23 of the country’s 41 mines was widely thought to be reversed. The mines were closed due to environmental violations (see Metal supply to tighten as environmental concerns enforced). However, nine months on from her dismissal, the mines have not reopened. The Philippine government has not quite capitulated to miner lobbying power. Although it now allows open pit mining (which was banned by Lopez), it has appointed a team of 25 experts to assess mine closures with a report expected in Q1 2018. The Philippines was the largest nickel ore producer in 2016. Given the strength of evidence that there were environmental violations in the first review that led to the initial ban, we expect that a significant portion of mine supply will remain constrained after this second review.

Electrification of vehicles

Demand for electric vehicles is expected to grow substantially from a relatively low base. In 2016, the stock of electric vehicles was around 2 million (0.2% of total stock). The IEA forecast that by 2020 there will be between 9 and 20 million electric vehicles and by 2025 there will be 40-70 million vehicles. This growth in electric vehicles usage presents a structural change to the automobile market.

Notes: The RTS incorporates technology improvements in energy efficiency and modal choices that support the achievement of policies that have been announced or are under consideration. The 2DS is consistent with a 50% probability of limiting the expected global average temperature increase to 2°C. The B2DS falls within the Paris Agreement range of ambition, corresponding to an average increase in the global temperature by 1.75°C.

Electric vehicles – whether pure plugin or plugin-hybrid – rely on batteries. Currently the lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery is the most widely used technology for batteries. There are a number of different varieties of Li-ion batteries.

For cars, the nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cathode is the most popular. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre forecasts that NMC cathodes will grow more than other forms. By 2025, they expect NMC demand to rise from 40k tonnes in 2015 to 192k tonnes (a rise from 29% share to 48% share of the overall cathode active materials market for batteries).

Notes: Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO), Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC), Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminium Oxide (NCA), Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP). With the exception of LCO, all these materials are currently used in automotive Li-ion battery cells.

Up until recently, the NMC cathode would use equal parts of nickel, manganese and cobalt, but the market is changing to a 8:1:1 ratio of the three metals (in favour of nickel). The reason for the transition is largely due to the relative scarcity of cobalt and potential supply disruptions to the metal. 60% of the world’s cobalt is mined out of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The country accounts for close to 50% of world known reserves of the metal. The DRC was embroiled in a civil war between 1998 and 2003, with an estimated death toll of 3.9 million (Source: International Rescue Committee). The current President’s mandate ran out in 2016 and his ability to cling onto power is fading. The risk of a serious political disruption is rising. The security of mineral resources from the DRC is weak and the association with human rights violations is becoming unpalatable for those sourcing the metal.

The structural shift toward greater electrical car usage combined with higher weighting of nickel in the Li-ion battery NMC cathodes looks likely to provide a boost for nickel demand in the coming decade.

For more information contact:

Catarina Donat Marques
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 20 7448 4386
E catarina.donatmarques@etfsecurities.com

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Playing the AI revolution through commodities and gold’s curious rally

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“A single search query on Chat GPT consumes around 1500% more energy than a simple search google search. The overall energy amounts are marginal on their own. Even taken in aggregate, it is a blip in terms of total global energy demand. However, it is illustrative of the potential big increases in electricity demand that will come from the AI revolution.

“A single search query on Chat GPT consumes around 1500% more energy than a simple search google search. The overall energy amounts are marginal on their own. Even taken in aggregate, it is a blip in terms of total global energy demand. However, it is illustrative of the potential big increases in electricity demand that will come from the AI revolution.

“Over the past 20 years, the US has seen its electricity demand stagnate. While its economy has grown, it has been able to avoid the need to add electricity generation thanks to efficiency savings. But this is now changing, and a big reason is the boom in data centre demand, with AI datacentre demand in particular.

“For example, Virginia has one of the densest clusters of data centres in the US. Dominion, the utility company servicing the state, had previously forecast net energy to increase by 2.9% between 2022 and 2037. Now they forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 4.4% between 2023 and 2028, principally due to energy demand from data centres. Similar patterns can be expected across the country.

“So, while many investors are chasing the AI theme through exposure to tech stocks, especially through big names such as Microsoft, it is also worth highlighting the materials or commodity angle — a literal picks and shovels approach.

“Nuclear energy will provide a key role in supplying the electricity for this expected boom in electricity demand, particularly given its zero-carbon credentials. We’ve already seen Amazon purchase a data centre situated next to a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania for Amazon Web Services.

“With more nuclear energy generation, uranium will see greater demand. The uranium market is already tight with forecast deficits of supply vs demand. Primary uranium mine supply is significantly trailing demand, with a cumulative forecasted supply shortfall of approximately 1.5 billion pounds by 2040. This added component will put more pressure on the uranium price, to the benefit of the miners.

“But generating electricity is only one part of the story. At the same time, getting the electricity generated by nuclear energy to the end user requires transmission. That requires a lot of copper. A build of new data centres will require a buildout of copper-intensive transmission lines.

“As with uranium, the copper market is facing a supply deficit. Copper will be a key metal in the energy transition, with 2.5x more copper wiring in an EV vs a conventional car, while solar panels and wind turbines require grid expansions and upgrades. The additional demand for copper from the AI revolution and data centre build up simply adds to this.”

HANetf is the issuer of the Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (U3O8), Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (U8NJ) and the Sprott Copper Miners ESG-Screened UCITS ETF (ASWD).

Gold’s curious rally

“Gold has hit several new all-time-highs this year, breaching $2,431/oz. This has been driven by central bank buying, geopolitical-driven safe-haven buying, emerging market investment demand, as well as anticipation around forthcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts, albeit with declining expectations regarding the latter.

“But it is worth looking into some of these drivers themselves. Let’s start with anticipated rate cuts. Gold looks more attractive when interest rates are low or expected to be cut. Gold is a non-yielding asset, so it becomes more attractive the lower yields are on other assets such as bonds. So, with the year starting with expectations of several Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold came into focus.

“But the curious case of this year’s gold market rally is that, despite expectations around these rate cuts gradually receding, with more cautious language from the Fed and some less than positive inflation data prints, the gold rally has continued unabated.

“There are several reasons for this. First, the geopolitical climate is increasingly top of mind for investors. The war in Ukraine continues and we’ve seen a potentially dramatic escalation in the Middle East with Israel and Iran launching missile attacks on one another.

“At the same time, we’ve continued to see central banks buying gold for their reserves. This has principally, but not only, been driven by China. This is geopolitics related, as many see the Chinese central bank’s gold buying being driven by a movement among the BRICS countries towards de-dollarisation. But a key point here is that central banks are a potentially less price-sensitive buyer – their demand is driven by other strategic considerations.

“But while gold has rallied, gold ETF and ETC investors have been absent. This is not how it usually works. Inflows into gold ETFs and ETCs have historically been fairly well correlated with the gold price, but this year a gap opened up. US and European investors were selling gold while the price went up. However, latest data from the World Gold Council now shows that in March, there were slight positive inflows in gold ETFs among American investors. Europeans were still selling, but the uptick in gold ETFs in the US does potentially suggest a trend change.”

HANetf is issuer of The Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC (RM8U) and AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO).

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ETBB ETF en utdelande fond som spårar Euro Stoxx 50

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BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) med ISIN FR0012740983, strävar efter att spåra EURO STOXX® 50-index. EURO STOXX® 50-indexet följer de 50 största företagen i euroområdet.

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) med ISIN FR0012740983, strävar efter att spåra EURO STOXX® 50-index. EURO STOXX® 50-indexet följer de 50 största företagen i euroområdet.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. ETFen replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i denna ETF delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF har tillgångar på 144 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 27 juli 2015 och har sin hemvist i Frankrike.

Handla ETBB ETF

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Paris.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURETBB
Stuttgart Stock ExchangeEURETBB
Euronext ParisEURETBB
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURETBB
XETRAEURETBB

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Ny råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt

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Sedan i torsdags är en ny börshandlad fond utgiven av Legal & General Investment Management handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. Det är en råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt.

Sedan i torsdags är en ny börshandlad fond utgiven av Legal & General Investment Management handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. Det är en råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt.

L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced Commodities ex-Agriculture & Livestock UCITS ETF (XEXA) erbjuder investerare tillgång till prestanda för en korg av råvaror från energi-, industri- och ädelmetallsektorerna via terminskontrakt med olika förfallodatum. Sektorn för jordbruk och levande nötkreatur ingår inte.

ETFen är helt säkerställd. Eftersom terminskontrakt har en begränsad löptid stängs de vanligtvis före utgången och rullas över till ett nytt kontrakt med en senare löptid. Beroende på om det köpta terminskontraktet är billigare eller dyrare än det sålda terminskontraktet realiseras rullningsvinster eller rullningsförluster.

NamnISINAvgiftUtdelnings-
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L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced Commodities ex-Agriculture & Livestock UCITS ETFIE000MQ5XEW10,30%AckumulerandeBarclays Backwardation Tilt Multi-Strategy Ex-Agriculture & Livestock Capped TR Index

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 157 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

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