Oil sees outflows as it trades at top of range – Weekly Flows Analysis
Highlights
- Second consecutive week of crude oil outflows as Brent trades closer to the top of range
- Investors sell GBP and EUR shorts
- Price declines in precious metals drive investors to sell silver and platinum but boosts gold buying
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Investors trim short GBP positions by US$17.9mn as Sterling appears to have reached rock bottom. After the UK voted to leave the EU in June, GBP depreciated more than 10% reflecting the inevitable economic decline and prolonged uncertainty that will ensue as the country failed to have a plan of action to manage the exit. However, the economic weakness, aggressive central bank stimulus and the potential for a fiscal blow-out are largely priced in, giving little scope for further depreciation.
Investors sell EUR shorts. Investors sold US$9.0mn of long USD, short EUR ETPs, largely reversing inflows into the same the previous week. With the EUR having depreciated against the USD by 1.1% last week investors took profit on their positions.
Gold continues to see inflows for sixth consecutive week. With US durable goods orders coming in higher than expected and the second GDP reading confirming a solid economic base, the Federal Reserve is running out of excuses for not raising rates. Although heavily hedged with emphasis that the outlook is uncertain and monetary policy is not on a preset course, Yellen said that she believes the case for a rate rise has strengthened in recent months. Gold prices fell close to 1.5%. Investors however continue to buy gold ETPs, as they add to hedges in their portfolios. Inflows of US$121.5mn into gold ETPs mark a four-week high.
Palladium and silver ETPs see outflows. While palladium ETPs have seen outflows for seven consecutive weeks, last week’s outflow of US$12mn was the largest since November 2015. After a 30% rally since mid-June palladium’s performance has stumbled in recent weeks, driving higher outflows. Silver’s decline from US$20/oz to US$18.5/oz in August saw an outflow of US$7mn. The fundamentals for both palladium and silver remain strong and so lower prices offer investors a good entry point. Both metals are in a supply deficit and stand to benefit from an uptick in the industrial cycle. Palladium’s use in pollution abatement equipment and silver’s use in photovoltaics is likely to see their demand increase as global environmental standards tighten.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
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