ETF Securities Weekly Investment Insights – Misplaced rate hike expectations
Highlights
- Rate hike expectations have been stoked by hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, misplaced rate hike expectations
- The recent uptick in the US Dollar appears unjustified and speculative positioning towards the currency remains elevated by historical standards.
- The USD/JPY currency pair is likely to retrace recent gains as technical resistance approaches.
March back on the table
Going by the uptick in the US Dollar and growing probability of a March rate hike being priced into Federal funds futures (34% to 40%*), Janet Yellen’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee this week was perceived as a hawkish display by the broader market. Her focus on the positive developments in the US labour market flew in the face of soft average hourly earnings data that accompanied the latest US jobs report and brought the possibility of an imminent interest rate hike back into focus. The trend was affirmed by a subsequent January inflation report that showed the strongest year-on-year price increases in the US in almost five years, with numbers both in the core and non-core components surpassing expectations (2.3% and 2.5% respectively*).
While higher inflationary pressures and hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve (Fed) intuitively point to a stronger US Dollar, we believe the current move is overdone and has potential to pullback, especially against the JPY. At its March meeting the Fed is unlikely to action its rhetoric, preferring to stay cautious during a time when the future of fiscal policy in the US remains so unclear. Speculative positioning towards the US Dollar also remains stretched relative to the JPY, making a retracement in the USD/JPY likely over the next month as rate hike expectations moderate and political risks increasingly come to the fore.
(click to enlarge the chart)
Resistance near
The USD/JPY currency pair is approaching what could prove to be a strong resistance point near its 50 daily moving average (DMA) at 115.2 (see Figure 1). The pair struggled to break through this level in late January and the price level represents a 50% retracement from its run lower since hitting a ten month high in December. Speculative long JPY positions are at a two year low while net speculative USD positioning sits 60% higher than its five year average. Any break lower is likely to see the currency pair reach for its February lows of near 111.6, a 2.4% drop from current levels. The upcoming release of Fed meeting minutes and Trump’s address to a joint session of congress are all likely to be key catalysts to any near term moves in US Dollar crosses.
Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:
Currency ETPs
USD Base
ETFS Long JPY Short USD (LJPY) ETFS Short JPY Long USD (SJPY)
3x
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short USD (LJP3) ETFS 3x Short JPY Long USD (SJP3)
The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.
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