ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Largest monthly inflows into Robotics ETPs since creation
- Robotics ETP saw US$52m of inflows since the beginning of the month, the largest monthly inflows since its creation.
- Energy ETPs outflows suggest investors are taking profits.
- Cocoa prices have reached a multi-year low, becoming appealing for technical buyers. We saw US$5.6m of inflows last week.
Download the complete report (.pdf)
Energy ETPs saw US$23.3m flows withdrawal last week as investors took profits. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that oil supplies fell by around 1.5m barrels per day (bpd) last month, including by 1m bpd reduction from OPEC. The OPEC cut compliance of 90% of pledged oil output curbs in January. However, the massive increase in US crude oil imports (to a four and a half year high) and the trend increase in rig count in the US partly offset the reduction in oil supply, suggesting energy prices overextended recently. Investors took profits as there is a limited upward potential in prices over the medium term.
Inflows into gold ETPs continue as price returns to November 2016 levels. We saw US$8.2m inflows into gold ETPs as the price of gold briefly touched US$1240/oz (up from US$1220/oz the week before). The 10bps decline on 10yr US Treasuries yields at the beginning of last week supported gold. We believe that the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty will limit downward pressures on gold prices.
Strong inflows in cocoa of US$6.4m last week suggest tactical buying as price fell to a five-year low. The 6.3% price decline last week brought cocoa price to a five-year low at US$2338/ton. This price drop reflects a correction after a larger-than-expected production while the threat of the Harmattan (a dry and dusty wind) – initially expected to disrupt 50% of global production – did not materialise. We believe the current multi-year low in cocoa’s price is perceived as a buying signal by contrarian investors.
European corporate bonds ETFs saw US$4.3m outflows. We believe the ECB’s decision to reduce the amount of monthly bonds purchase by EUR20bn after April coupled with the highly uncertain outcomes from the upcoming presidential elections have weighed on investor interest in European corporate bonds. The French far-right Presidential candidate, Le Pen, who is currently in second place according to recent polls, has promised the return of the French franc, threatening a redenomination of EUR1.7bn of French debt into francs if she were elected with the potential to default.
Video Presentation
Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Risk Warnings
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.