ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Policy divergence widens after strong US jobs report
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Highlights
• Commodities: Strong greenback weighs on energy and precious metals.
• Equities: Buoyant US jobs report rejuvenates confidence in world’s largest economy.
• Currencies: Holler for dollar after strong US jobs report raises the prospect of 2015 rate hike.
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• The greenback was the main beneficiary of the payrolls report and weighed on the commodity complex with energy and precious metals posting losses of more than 4.5% for the week.
Commodities
Strong greenback weighs on energy and precious metals. A firmer dollar buoyed by a surprisingly strong US monthly payrolls report took its toll on the yellow metal, which posted a 4.7% decline on the week. Meanwhile WTI crude and Brent oil slid 4.9% and 4.3% respectively, shrugging off the weekly fall in active U.S. oil drilling rigs. Despite attaining its highest October figure in 14 years, US vehicle sales failed to support palladium prices plagued by ETF outflows and Volkswagen widening the scope of the emissions scandal to its gasoline engines. Supply woes resurfaced after Lonmin the world’s third largest platinum miner cautioned it could suffer insolvency if it failed to shore up its balance sheet. Sugar plunged 5.5% on Wednesday as investors trimmed positions mulling over tightening world supply against sluggish demand.
Equities
Buoyant US jobs report rejuvenates confidence in world’s largest economy. The strikingly buoyant US jobs report released on Friday failed to change the trajectory of global indices that traded most of the week on a cautious footing marked by light volumes. The monthly payrolls swept past expectations adding 271,000 jobs in October and unemployment data halved to 5% from its high in 2009 fuelling the Feds case for a rate hike in 2015. Waning demand inside the Eurozone resulted in an unexpected drop in German industrial production by 1.1% and slump in factory orders by 1.7% pressing for further easing in monetary policy by the European Central Bank. Meanwhile the Euro Area manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 53.9 in October, pointing to a potential recovery in this regard.
Currencies
Holler for dollar after strong US jobs report raises the prospect of 2015 rate hike. Interest rate futures moved to price in a 70% probability of a rate hike in December, after a stellar US jobs report reinforced the Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s remarks of a December rate hike a “live possibility”. With less than a month to go, the rise in the odds for a US rate hike sets the stage for monetary policy divergence between US and China, Europe and Japan, who are likely to continue to ease policy. Super Thursday caught investors off guard as dovish comments by the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, sent the pound lower. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s October meeting indicated optimism on the domestic economy while concerns from China and emerging markets continued to linger. Meanwhile European Central Bank maintained its bias towards further monetary easing if weak external conditions persist during its reassessment in December.
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