Etikett: Asian Stocks

Markets whipsaw between hawkish Fed and softer data

ETF Securities ETP Markets whipsaw between hawkish Fed and softer dataMarkets whipsaw between hawkish Fed and softer data

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Markets whipsaw between hawkish Fed and softer data

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Highlights

•  Commodities: Gold under pressure after 2015 rate hike odds stacked at 50/50.
•  Equities: Change in Fed’s tone sees choppy trading week for global stocks.
•  Currencies: Hawkish Fed raises the prospect of a 2015 rate hike.
•  Upcoming webinar: Global commodities, have we reached the floor in prices? Register here to attend.

Asian stocks have opened on a weaker footing after official data highlighted contraction in China’s manufacturing sector continuing through October. Although the factory activity came in higher than the previous month at 48.3, the reading remains below 50 dampening hopes of an expansion and renewing concerns of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. The release of the figures saw oil come under pressure. As US policy makers continue to eye December as a possible lift-off date, the October jobs report will provide further clues on the trajectory of interest rates. This week central banks in UK and Australia will announce their key interest rate decision.

Commodities

Gold under pressure after 2015 rate hike odds stacked at 50/50. Gold slid to $1134 last week hitting its lowest level in four weeks after the Federal Reserve concluded its last meeting on an unexpectedly hawkish note, bolstering the US dollar. Silver declined to $15.5 tracking gold lower. Wheat posted its biggest weekly gain in four months rising 6.4% as weather concerns in Ukraine, Russia and Australia continue to remain supportive of the price. Concerns are lingering over the quality of the wheat crop in Australia that is forecast to receive heavy rain in the days ahead. In addition better than expected export sales reported by the US department of Agriculture (USDA) improved the demand outlook for wheat. The ninth consecutive week of decline in the US oil rig count helped WTI crude and Brent oil rise rally 4.5% and 3.3% respectively.

Equities

Change in Fed’s tone sees choppy trading week for global stocks. Global stocks traded higher after the Federal Reserve softened their stance towards global financial risks and hinted at the possibility of a 2015 rate hike at the December meeting. However a lacklustre Q3 earnings season coupled with weaker US GDP data and falling consumer confidence forced markets to concede most of their gains last week. Eurozone and German inflation climbed out of negative territory and consumer confidence rose unexpectedly. In the US Exxonmobil and Chevron emerged as the latest victims of declining oil and gas prices, reporting a 63% and 47% drop in earnings per share for the third quarter while downstream operations rose. In Europe, Royal Dutch Shell announced its worst loss in 16 years.

Currencies

Hawkish Fed raises the prospect of a 2015 rate hike. The greenback rose sharply after the Federal open market committee (FOMC) meeting but retraced all its gains after a slew of weak US economic data. The October jobs report is now all the more import as guide for a December lift off by the highly data dependent Fed. Sweden’s Riksbank left its key rate unchanged but expanded the QE bond buying program by another SEK 65bn. The New Zealand central bank hinted at rate cuts ahead but opted to leave rates unchanged. The Chinese Yuan posted its largest one-day gain in 10 years on speculation the central bank would introduce reforms to foster yuan denominated trading to foreign firms. The 1% rise in Japanese industrial production after a 1.2% contraction in the previous month strengthened the Bank of Japan’s case to keep policy unchanged helping the Yen trade higher. The Aussie dollar remained lower after a weaker inflation reading raised hopes of a rate cut this week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Bad news signals good news – leaving room for further stimulus

Bad news signals good news – leaving room for further stimulus

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Bad news signals good news – leaving room for further stimulus

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Highlights

•  Commodities: Stronger US inflation data takes the shine off gold.
•  Equities: Tightening margins dominate US Q3 earnings season.
•  Currencies: Stronger core inflation data boosts the greenback versus major peers.
•  As part of our “Energy Wars” webinar series we welcome Richard Mallinson, a leading geopolitical analyst at Energy Aspects to join us, to discuss where next for the oil price. Register here to attend

Asian stocks have opened the week on a mixed footing after a raft of economic data released from Beijing this morning. China managed to beat their third quarter GDP estimate by a fraction 0.1% although they lagged behind industrial production estimates by -0.3% while retail sales remained a bright spot. European futures are indicating a lower open as they digest the pivotal data from China. This week central banks in Europe and Canada will decide on their interest rate policy with hopes pinned on further stimulus by Europe.

Commodities

Stronger US inflation data takes the shine off gold. Softer economic data from US and China helped gold rise above its 200d moving average $1176. However Thursday’s release of higher-than-expected US core inflation of 1.9%, came in just shy of Fed’s inflation target, pushed gold lower as investors revisited the prospect of a 2015 rate hike. Overblown fears caused by the VW emissions scandal are showing signs of abating as we see platinum attain its highest level in 7 weeks while palladium’s price reaction remain muted despite a 9.8% rise in new car registrations in Europe, marking the 25th consecutive month of growth. Oil prices failed to show a clear price trend declining in part due to profit taking from last week’s highs and a 7.6mn barrel increase in US crude oil reported by the US department of energy added to the supply glut.

Equities

Tightening margins dominate US Q3 earnings season. China’s benchmark Shanghai composite index posted its best week in four months rising 6.54% on renewed optimism of state reforms after the raft of weak economic data. Over in Europe stimulus bets are on the rise after a sharp deterioration in the German ZEW survey and Europe’s inflation data dipping into negative territory. The US earnings season have been disappointing, with 27% of companies that have reported showing negative QoQ earnings particularly in the energy, financials and materials sectors. Quarterly profit margins have fallen below 10% for the first time since 2012 as a combination of rising corporate revenues, the strength of the US dollar and demand for wage increases. US jobless claims are now at their lowest point since 1973 and it is likely that tightening margins will be a theme for this upcoming earnings season.

Currencies

Stronger core inflation data boosts the greenback versus major peers. In contrast to the negative inflation scenario in Europe, consumer prices excluding food and fuel climbed the most in 3 months aiding the US dollar’s rise to a seven week high versus the euro. The lowest UK unemployment reading 5.4% in 7 years helped the sterling gain support after the negative monthly CPI data sparked an initial sell off. The European central bank will announce its policy decision this week and investors are relying on the expansion of the quantitative easing program after the recent weakness in economic data. The Australian central bank this week highlighted concerns of a slowdown in the overheated housing market sending the Aussie dollar sharply lower. The loonie remained resilient ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision on Thursday. The minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting showed no signs of further quantitative easing keeping the Yen strong over the week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Hopes of cheap money continue as global markets struggle

Hopes of cheap money continue as global markets struggle

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Hopes of cheap money continue as global markets struggle

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Highlights

•  Commodities: Palladium gains after US auto sales surge ahead.
•  Equities: Fourth consecutive miss of payrolls data sends equities lower
•  Currencies: Expectations of a Fed lift off pushed forward after weak jobs data.
•  ETF Securities will be hosting a Q4 update on the 8 October to look at trends for commodities, equities and currencies – register here to attend

European and Asian stocks have started the week on a positive note after a volatile trading session last week. A feeble jobs report sparked a rush for safe haven assets with gold and silver posting their highest daily percentage gains this year. Optimism over the delay of a US rate hike seems to be dominating the minds of investors who will look towards global central banks to help restore demand. Central banks in Australia and UK will decide on the rate policy this week while Japan and US will respectively provide minutes for their past meetings.

Commodities

Palladium gains after US auto sales surge ahead. In the wake of the diesel emissions scandal, Palladium known for its use in gasoline auto catalysts rose to a 3 month high $700 after the US dominated by gasoline cars released the strongest monthly auto sales data in a decade. Gold recorded its biggest daily percentage gain this year of 2.1% on Friday after the closely watched US payrolls data missed forecasts delaying the anticipated rate hike in the US. Silver profited in gold’s slipstream rising 4.7% marking its highest daily percentage gain since April this year. The prospect of sugar cane processors switching production from sugar to ethanol subsequent to Petrobras’s announcement of raising gasoline prices helped sugar attain a 20-week high at $13.51. In addition, the disruption of the Brazilian harvest due to adverse weather conditions lent support to sugar prices.

Equities

Fourth consecutive miss of payrolls data sends equities lower. Global equities logged their worst quarter since 2011 last week. Global equity indices traded in a volatile range after the weak US jobs data postponed the case for a rate hike. China’s September manufacturing data rose marginally but continued to show signs of contraction. Broadly driven by lower oil prices the euro areas inflation rate turned negative in September, boosting the case for further quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Glencore became the latest victim of the commodity rout declining 30% on last Monday after analyst’s questioned the impact of its $30bn debt load on earnings. However it managed to stage a comeback rising 10% in London trading this morning on the back of reports that the company is in talks with potential buyers for its agriculture business. Investors enter the Q3 earnings season with caution as analysts remain bearish on outlooks.

Currencies

Expectations of a Fed lift off pushed forward after weak jobs data. The fourth consecutive miss in US non-farm payrolls data coupled with a downward revision by 35k in last month’s low print of 173k sent major currencies higher against the US dollar. The markets were quick to price out a December rate hike with the probability falling to 8% and will closely scrutinize the minutes of the FOMC meeting this week. Despite stronger lending and mortgage approvals data, the pound came under pressure this week due to weak manufacturing data. The Aussie dollar benefitted from the mildly positive Chinese data earlier in the week. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold this week. The Reserve Bank of India cut rates to 6.75%, 50bps more than expected citing uncertainty in the global economy.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.