ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Weak Growth Data Hits Equities, but China A Shares Buck the Trend
Highlights
- Cocoa jumps nearly 10% in 2 weeks as Ebola fears grow.
- China A-Shares buck the global equity trend and continue to rally.
- Growth fears and volatility weighs on commodity currencies, with further losses expected.
Global equity markets and cyclical metals ended the week lower as US and European PMIs, US durable goods orders and the German IFO index came in lower than expected. China A-shares bucked the trend, with a better-than-expected flash PMI reading adding support to the market. US payrolls will be the centre of attention this week as the market judges the capacity of the US economy to absorb an expected interest rate hike in H1 2015. A strong reading will likely to be US dollar positive, which will likely keep pressure on commodities. In the medium-term, however, we believe US economic strength will ultimately be positive for global growth and commodity demand and we view commodities as good value at current prices.
Download the complete report (.pdf)
Commodities
Cocoa jumps nearly 10% in 2 weeks as Ebola fears grow. Following the previous week’s 5.4% gain,
Equities
China A-Shares buck the global equity trend and continue to rally. Last week saw the MSCI China A index gaining 0.9% on better manufacturing PMI for September while the US and Eurozone manufacturing PMI disappointed again. The MSCI China A index has been trading above its 50 and 200 day moving averages since end of July, suggesting further potential rise in the near term. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected Michigan confidence added to the downward pressure in the US with the Russell 2000® Index dropping 4.2% over the past week. Concerns over the ECB’s capacity to restore growth in the Eurozone economy has weighed on European equity benchmarks, sending short European indices as well as the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index upward again, by 5.7% on average for the short indices and 2.6% for the volatility index.
Currencies
Growth fears and volatility weighs on commodity currencies, with further losses expected. ‘Commodity currencies’ were the worst performing last week with the currencies of major commodity producers Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Norway coming under pressure. Volatility has risen across a number of asset classes, including the FX market, as investor uncertainty has risen on anticipation of US rate hikes in the new year. Meanwhile, a soft patch for commodity prices (also partly a reflection of concerns over global growth) has also weighed on commodity currencies. There may be some scope for a rebound in the Canadian dollar and Norwegian Krone if oil prices can rebound, but we expect that further downside is likely for the Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Concerns over China’s economic strength will likely weigh on the AUD, while NZD is likely to experience further weakness after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand revealed it had sold the largest amount of currency in seven years to deflate the currency
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
General
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.
Third Parties
Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.
