Gold ETPs attracted the largest inflows in 23 weeks as risk aversion took centre stage amidst military activity in Syria and ongoing trade tensions. Following days of sabre rattling by Mr Trump, the US, UK and France launched a missile attack on Friday in an attempt to destroy the Assad regime’s chemical weapon capabilities in Syria. In response, Russian president Vladimir Putin condemned the attack and warned that such action would inevitably lead to chaos. As the first port of call in times of political uncertainty, we expect goldto remain in demand for as long as the conflict between the US and Russia continues on the back of the Syrian crisis. In fact, for most of this year gold has been sporting its safe-haven hat.
US government shutdowns, sabre-rattling between US/Japan and North Korea, the ratcheting up of a trade war between the world’s largest economies, interactions between Russia and NATO sponsors deteriorating back to cold-war tendencies, the potential return of sanctions against Iran and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran are few of the sources of investor anxiety. Added to that, the weaker greenback has lent buoyancy to gold prices that ended last week higher by 1%. Silver prices have also been benefiting in gold’s slipstream. Silver ETPs received US$13.6mn, marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows. We continue to have a positive view on silver’s fundamentals owing to a strong industrial cycle and constrained mine supply and expect silver to play catch-up in 2018.
Inflows into copper ETPs increase by US$29.1mn, reversing the prior two weeks’ trend of outflows. Owing to their cyclical nature, industrial metal prices have come under considerable pressure as the threat of trade wars continues. Last week Peru, the world’s second largest producer of copper after Chile, confirmed its intention to produce 3mn tons (36% up over the prior year) of copper per year by 2022. While supply has been increasing, the global copper market was in a seasonally adjusted supply deficit of 155,000 tons last year as confirmed by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). While the deficit looks set to decrease marginally on the back of higher supply, demand remains well supported. According to data from the customs authorities, China concentrate imports were up 8% over the prior year in Q1 2018.
US dollar ETPs widened for the second week in a row to US$10.2mn, primarily as investors positioned against the Euro. The rollover of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) in Europe from record highs in January coupled with weaker macro-economic data in Europe last week has dampened sentiment towards the European economic recovery. We believe, the current downturn is only reflective of a midcycle pause and expect Europe’s strong economic growth trajectory to continue.
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Contributors to the text Gold’s Muted Response Speaks Volumes: Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager and Strategist, and Imaru Casanova, Deputy Portfolio Manager/Senior Analyst for the Gold Strategy
Gold Faced Selling Pressure Early in February Despite Normally Positive Conditions
In an environment that would typically be positive for gold, it appears gold faced selling pressure as investors searched for liquidity to cover margin calls and redemptions. Golddeclined in February as increased market volatility and a drop in equity and bond markets failed to support demand for gold as a safe haven1. On February 2, the labor market report in the U.S. showed a strong rebound in average hourly earnings that was well above expectations. The U.S. dollar rallied and gold declined. Equity markets dropped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)2 down almost 9% by February 8 (ending February down 4%), U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the U.S. dollar, rather than gold, was the beneficiary.
Weaker U.S. Dollar, Heightened Inflation Expectations Helped Gold Reach Month High
On February 14, January’s inflation report beat consensus, with headline inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)3 accelerating to 2.1% year-on-year. U.S. Treasury yields continued their rise and the U.S. dollar weakened. Meanwhile, the equity markets and gold bounced back. Gold reached its high for the month of $1,353.70 per ounce on February 15.
Gold Rally Loses Momentum as U.S. Dollar Strengthens on Fed comments
However, the gold rally was short lived, as the markets priced in hawkish expectations ahead of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on February 21. The Fed minutes themselves did not contain much new information, but confirmed the market’s expectations for three rate hikes this year. In addition, the testimony by new Fed chairman Jerome Powell to the House of Representatives’ Committee on Financial Services was viewed as optimistic, stating that he sees gradual rate hikes, and more importantly, an improved U.S. growth outlook. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)4 was up 1.7% during the month. Commodities were lower during February, which is also negative for gold. Gold closed at $1,318.38 per ounce on February 28, down 2% or $26.78 per ounce for the month.
Demand for Gold ETPs up YTD Helping Bullion Outperform Gold Stocks
Demand for gold bullion-backed exchange traded products (ETPs) declined in February, with holdings down about 0.3% for the month. This followed a 1.3% increase in holdings in January, resulting in a net 1.1% increase year to date as of February 28. We track the flows into the gold bullion ETPs as we believe investments in those products typically represent longer-term, strategic investment demand for gold and, as such, provide an excellent proxy for the direction of the gold market.
Gold stocks underperformed gold, with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)5 falling 9.91%, and the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)6 dropping 6.7% during the month. The junior companies caught up with their larger peers after underperforming in January.
Gold Stocks Impacted by Reaction to Mixed Q4 Reporting, Not Fundamentals
While many gold companies reported positive fourth quarter 2017 operating results, earnings/financial results were mixed and guidance for 2018, in some cases, seems to have surprised the markets. The negative sector headlines put significant selling pressure on the stocks. In many cases, these negative surprises have shorter-term effects, and do not change the companies’ fundamental valuations. However, more recently, it appears that selling pressure might be intensified by headline-driven, algorithm-based trading where the longer-term fundamentals are ignored.
The End of the Low Interest Rates Era and the Multi-Decade Bond Bull Market?
It looks like the post-crisis era of ultra-low, below-market interest rates and the multi-decade bond bull market both came to an end in February. In early February the simultaneous fall in both stocks and bonds caught the markets very off guard. Five- and 10-year U.S. Treasury rates jumped up and out of a downtrend that goes back to 1985. The stock market sell-off was a taste of the unintended consequences of Fed policies that encourage investors to take on more risk, driving markets in one relentless direction for nine years. Funds designed to thrive in a low volatility environment were forced to sell in a reinforcing feedback loop, exposing new systemic risks.
Bitcoin Crash Another Sign that Easy Money May Be Over
Another sign of the end of an era of easy money was the bitcoincrash. From its high of $19,511 in December, bitcoin declined 70% to its $5,922 low on February 5. It has since recovered to around $10,000. Bitcoin has already gone through one crash this year and the value of the emerging technology, while potentially disruptive, is still unproven.
Safe haven investments showed little reaction to the stock market selloff. Gold and the dollar essentially trended sideways, while U.S. Treasuries headed lower. So far investors are treating the stock market volatility as an overdue correction, however we see it as the beginning of a secular shift in markets and investor psychology that brings more volatility and risk going forward. Perhaps the prelude to a bear market and economic downturn.
It looks like a higher interest rate regime is taking hold. It is not yet clear whether it is being driven by inflationary expectations, Fed rate increases, increasing fiscal deficits, or a combination of all three. Protectionist trade policies, wage pressures, and a weak dollar may cause core inflation to trend through the Fed’s 2% target, which may bring more aggressive rate policies. Fiscal deficits projected to rise above $1,000,000,000,000 in a couple of years will cause the Treasury to issue huge quantities of debt at the same time the Fed is reducing its $4,000,000,000,000 hoard of U.S. Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities, and agency debt. (FYI…12 zeroes equals a trillion).
A new era of higher interest rates brings added uncertainty. As these rates rise, equity risk premiums get squeezed, making stocks less desirable. According to Gluskin Sheff7, a 50 basis point rise in rates costs the economy $250 billion in debt service annually. We do not know how the new Fed management will respond to volatile markets and potentially weaker economic growth. Unwinding the Fed balance sheet (quantitative tightening) is an unprecedented financial experiment. Is the February volatility an indication of how a system dominated by passively managed funds, algorithms, and automation will behave?
We believe the muted response from gold and other safe haven investments suggests complacency continues to dominate the markets. In fact, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index’s mid-month reading for February rose unexpectedly to nearly a 13-year high. As the year unfolds, we expect an erosion of complacency and confidence that benefits gold.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
1Safe haven is an investment that is expected to retain its value or even increase its value in times of market turbulence.
2The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ.
3The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them.
4U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. The DXY does this by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and six major world currencies: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner, and Swiss franc.
5NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.
6MVIS® Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
7Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., a Canadian independent wealth management firm, manages investment portfolios for high net worth investors, including entrepreneurs, professionals, family trusts, private charitable foundations, and estates.
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A rally in gold and silver prices piqued investor interest in precious metal ETPs. A 2.8% rise in gold prices and a 0.3% rally in silver prices last week aided inflows into precious metal ETPs. Silver saw a second consecutive week of inflows of US$8.3mn. Gold inflows of US$22.5mn reversed most of the prior week’s outflows. Gold prices started rallying mid-week when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) released it latest policy statement and projections. The market interpreted the Fed’s position as dovish, as the median forecast for end of year rates had not changed.
The US Dollar basket declined by 0.65% on the day of the release of the statement, providing a tailwind for precious metal prices. Although we think the market generally missed the fact the dispersion of dots in the ‘dot plot’ (the map of the FOMC participant’s views on where policy rates will end the year), shifted significantly from December 2017, with an equal number of participants now expecting four rate hikes in total this year as those expecting three. It will likely only take a small nudge to get more Fed participants to expect higher rates. Gold rallied harder towards the end of the week as its haven quality came into focus due to fears of a trade war intensifying. On Thursday, the Trump Administration announced it will imposing tariffs on Chinese imports. Details are vague, but the Administration is expected to offer further information in the next 15 days. Up to US$60bn in annual imports from China are targeted with a 25% tariff.
The Chinese response so far has been limited, with the Ministry of Commerce only announcing a reciprocal tariff on 128 US products accounting for US$3bn in imports. However, that does not preclude further action. The market fears that this could escalate into a full blown trade war. Also on Thursday, former United Nations ambassador John Bolton joined the Trump Administration, replacing H.R. McMaster as national security adviser. He is seen a policy hawk, who will take a tough stance on Iran and North Korea. Bolton believes that the current Iranian nuclear deal is irreconcilable. Having such a hawk as an advisor to the President appears to have raised the geopolitical premium in gold price.
Political volatility drove US$65mn out of diversified commodity baskets as investors considered de-risking and taking profit on earlier gains. That outflow reversed all of the inflows from the prior two weeks and was the largest outflow since June 2017. However, some investors saw last week’s price capitulation in cyclicals assets as a buying opportunity. For example there were US$10.6mn inflows into copper ETPs as the price of copper fell 3.7%. That was the highest inflow in seven weeks.
Oil prices rallied 5.5%, driving profit-taking from crude oil ETPs. An unexpected draw on inventory ignited oil prices mid-week, and then the instalment of an Iran-hawk into the Trump Administration sent prices substantially higher as a geopolitical premium entered the oil price. ETP investors continued to take profit, with US$90.4mn of withdrawals. That marked the highest outflow since November 2017. At the same time there were US$5.2mn of inflows into short crude oil ETPs, the highest since December 2017.
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Agricultural basket ETPs received the largest inflows since inception, totalling US$54.7mn surpassing the previous high achieved only four weeks ago. After a lacklustre performance over the prior year with the exception of cotton, a majority of agricultural commodities are trading higher in 2018 owing to severe weather conditions. Wheat prices have been benefiting from the ongoing dry spell in key US growing areas that is hampering the development of the dormant winter wheat. While the severe dry conditions in Argentina are supporting soybean and soybean meal prices higher. Meanwhile USDA’s February World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, shows lower closing inventories for corn stocks, lending buoyancy to prices. Added to that the weaker US dollar is also helping the value of dollar-denominated exports in many agricultural commodities.
Inflows into industrial metal basket ETPs rebound to US$42.1mn reversing the prior week’s trend of outflows. The pronounced US dollar weakness coupled with higher than expected inflation data in the US has lent buoyancy to industrial metal prices. As metals and commodities are viewed as a hedge against inflation.
Inflows into Nickel ETPs worth US$21.4mn garner momentum, rising for the sixth week in a row. Nickel was the best performer last week amongst the industrial metals complex, with a price rise of 7.3%. The growth associated with electric vehicle batteries is expected to play a role in demand for nickel that currently only accounts for 3% of total demand. Added to that, roughly 50% of the current nickel mine supply is suitable for battery use as the low grade nickel products are inadequate for battery manufacturing, raising the need for further production as global nickel inventories have been trading lower.
Gold ETPs suffer US$103.5mn redemptions on the back of profit-taking.Gold pricesadvanced to US$1360 per troy ounce attaining an 18-month high on the back of higher than expected inflation data and weaker retail sales in the US. Outflows from platinum ETPs continue for the seventh week in a row. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, while new car registrations in the EU rose by 7.1% year-on-year, the percentage of diesel cars as a proportion of all new cars registered declined by 33%. This is likely to weigh on platinum, known for its use in pollution abatement technologies used in diesel vehicles.
Energy basket ETPs face redemptions worth US$13.2mn. While Oil ETPs saw inflows worth US$21.8mn. In its latest update the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) predicted production increase of 1.8mn barrels per day (bpd) is likely to exceed the anticipated growth in global demand. Added to that, owing to the ongoing unscheduled outages in Venezuela, the market would appear to be largely balanced if OPEC’s current oil production at 32.3mn bpd remained constant. However when Venezuela resumes production at normal levels, the oil market will be oversupplied.
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Industrial metals ETPs saw US$99.9mn outflows. Arguably the most cyclically exposed of the commodities – industrial metals – experienced the highest outflows in 10 weeks. An equity market sell-off dragged other cyclical assets lower. Most of the outflows were concentrated in broad baskets (-US$133.6mn) and copper (- US$26.3mn). However, there were inflows into nickel (US$61.3mn) and silver (US19.3mn), highlighting that some investors are tactically searching for opportunities after the price decline.
Inflows into European equity long ETFs rose to highest level since 2016, while outflows from short ETFs rose to highest since 2016. Investors bought US$15.9mn of European equity ETPs as European bourses saw a capitulation in prices. Meanwhile investors locked in their profits, selling US$9.9mn of European (mainly UK) short ETF positions. The trading patterns indicate that many ETP investors see the current equity market declines as transitory
Gold fails to attract haven asset seekers.Goldis often the first port of call in times of stress. Not last week apparently. Gold saw US$57.3mn of outflows as its price declined 1.3%. As US Treasury yields spiked to 2.86% at the end of the week from 2.71% at the beginning of the week and US dollar appreciated, gold prices fell. A second US government shutdown in the space of three weeks on Friday only offered temporary support to gold as a spending bill was signed and government re-opened in a matter of hours.
Oil ETPs saw a further US$29.7mn of outflows as US pumps out a record 10.25mn barrels per day. In the past 32 weeks there has only been one week of inflows into oil ETPs. In contrast to oil futures, which had recently seen speculative positioning rise to an all-time high, ETP investors had been selling into the price rally that started in June 2017 and ended in January 2018. With many ETP investors having accumulated positions during the prices declines from 2014, recent selling indicates profit taking. We had argued in that prices around US$70/bbl hit in January were not sustainable as US production would rise in response and suppress prices again. Oil rig counts in the US have risen for the past three weeks, oil production has risen for four consecutive weeks and crude inventory is rising once again. In fact US oil production rose to over 10.25mn barrel per day last week (the highest since weekly records began in 1983 and higher than the monthly data that began in 1920).
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