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The Angel That Wasn’t

The cautionary advice to “expect the unexpected” makes a lot of sense for investors—at least in the sense that we should all learn to manage our own expectations by realizing there are outcomes we may not have anticipated. Sudden defaults by investment grade rated issuers would fall into this category, given their rare occurrence. The Angel That Wasn’t.

At VanEck we are anticipating a pick up in the volume of fallen angels, or investment grade bonds being downgraded to high yield status, in 2019. Our theory is not that we will see a systematic turn in the credit cycle that causes a massive wave of BBB-rated debt to fall into the high yield universe, but that we will see a variety of idiosyncratic situations develop.

From Fallen to “Failing”

One such situation occurred this month as a direct result of the very tragic wildfires that struck California over the last two years. Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), with nearly $18 billion in bonds1 in the ICE BofAML US Investment Grade Bond Index, is facing upwards of $30 billion in legal claims, which would render the utility insolvent. A series of downgrades by multiple agencies have brought the issuer’s rating quickly down from a BBB- to C during just the first two weeks of January.2 The bonds are effectively fallen angels, or as ICE BofAML more aptly labeled them in a recent note, “failing angels.” On January 14 the company announced that it would seek Chapter 11 protection as soon as January 29. On January 15, the company declined to make an interest payment due on one of its senior unsecured bond issues. PG&E’s debt prices have fallen significantly.

PG&E’s Bond Prices Have Plummeted

Source: Bloomberg.

Also on January 15, ICE BofAML announced that, although the bankruptcy filing date would fall after the preview date for its high yield indexes, PG&E’s bonds would NOT be added to the ICE BofAML high yield indexes, including the US High Yield Index or the Global Fallen Angel High Yield Index. The indexer made this decision based on the very high likelihood that these bonds would no longer qualify for inclusion by the next index rebalancing at the end of February, because defaulted bonds are excluded from their high yield bond indices. It is somewhat unusual for an investment grade company to default without first entering the high yield market, and PG&E would join the ranks of companies like MF Global, Lehman Brothers, and Enron.

A Thoughtful Exclusion

We believe the indexer has exercised discretion with regard to the index rules in a thoughtful and prudent manner. That is not to say the bonds in question are certain to fall further in value, that PG&E investors have been saved from losses, or that the bonds cannot rally from here. Markets are quick to price in bad news, and the reorganization of PG&E could, under reasonable assumptions, leave a high recovery value for the bonds. It is also possible that the situation could change, and that PG&E does not ultimately file for bankruptcy, in which case the bonds could still enter the high yield indices on the next rebalancing date at the end of February.

IMPORTANT DEFINITIONS AND DISCLOSURES

1Based on par amount as of 1/15/2019.
2Based on an average of various rating agencies.
ICE BofAML US Corporate Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

ICE BofAML US Fallen Angel High Yield Index (H0FA, “Index”), formerly known as BofA Merrill Lynch US Fallen Angel High Yield Index prior to 10/23/2017, is a subset of the ICE BofAML US High Yield Index (H0A0, “Broad Index”), formerly known as BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index prior to 10/23/2017), including securities that were rated investment grade at time of issuance. H0FA is not representative of the entire fallen angel high yield corporate bond market.

ICE BofAML US High Yield Index (H0A0, “Broad HY Index”), formerly known as BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index prior to 10/23/2017, is comprised of below-investment grade corporate bonds (based on an average of various rating agencies) denominated in U.S. dollars.

Important Disclosures

This commentary originates from VanEck Investments Limited (“VanEck”) and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security.

VanEck’s opinions stated in this commentary may deviate from opinions presented by other VanEck departments or companies. Information and opinions in this commentary are based on VanEck’s analysis.

Any forecasts and projections contained in the commentary appear from the named sources. All opinions in this commentary are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated date of this commentary and are subject to change without notice in subsequent versions of the commentary. Any projections, market outlooks or estimates in this material are forward-looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions that are solely the opinion of VanEck. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur.

No investment advice

The commentary is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This commentary has been prepared by VanEck as general information for private use of investors to whom the commentary has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment.

How currency movements can impact ETP returns

Constructing a portfolio with a mix of domestic and international assets has never been easier due to the wide range of Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) that are now available to investors on exchange. However, when investing in ETPs, it’s important to realise that you could be exposed to currency risk, as currency movements can have a significant impact on ETP returns.

In this article, we’ll explain how currencies in ETPs work and look at how currency movements can affect ETP returns.

Multiple currencies

If you’re interested in investing in ETPs, you may have noticed that there are often different currencies associated with the same ETP.

For example, an ETP tracking the S&P 500 – an index that is quoted in US Dollars – could be traded on the London Stock Exchange in Pound Sterling. The reason that ETPs are often traded in multiple currencies and on different exchanges across the world is that it provides investors with the opportunity to buy ETPs efficiently through their own local exchanges. While this is an advantage for investors, multiple currencies also introduce currency risk.

Understanding the risk

When it comes to understanding ETP currency risk, the first step is to determine where currency exchange rates can have an impact on the product valuation, and thus on performance calculation.

Investor’s currency: in what currency do you calculate your overall performance?

Trading currency: what currency does the ETP trades in?
NAV currency: what currency is the ETP’s NAV (Net Asset Value) calculated in?
Underlying components trading currencies: what is the trading currency of the portfolio constituents?

Assuming an exact same composition between the underlying index and the ETP, when comparing the underlying index performance with the performance experienced by investing in the ETP, you must realise that:

The constituents trading currencies is the same in both the index and the ETP
No currency impact here at this level
The ETP’s NAV and trading currency, as well as the investor’s currency can be different from the index calculation currency
Can have currency impact on performance calculation

As an example, a EUR investor wants to buy a 3x short 10-year US Treasuries ETP on Borsa Italiana. She buys an ETP trading in EUR, while its NAV would be computed in USD, and the underlying instrument (10-year US Treasuries) trading currency would also be in USD.

Once you know the currencies that you are dealing with, you can analyse how currency movements may affect performance. This investor would then be penalised by USD depreciation as it would erode the EUR value of the ETP. On the other hand, she would benefit from USD appreciation.

Here’s an example of how currency movements could impact the returns from a 3x short 10-year US Treasuries ETP traded on the Borsa Italiana.

Currency impact on performance: An example

In Figure 1 below, we present a hypothetical example that shows the daily movement of the ETP’s NAV in US Dollars, as well as the daily change in the EURUSD exchange rate. The NAV currency of the ETP is the US Dollar, but as it’s listed on Borsa Italiana, it’s traded in Euros.

Figure 1. ETP NAV movements and EURUSD fluctuations

Source: WisdomTree, illustrative example. You cannot invest in an index. Historical performance is not an indication of future results and any investments may go down in value.

The table shows that the Euro NAV price of the ETP is affected by both the change in the ETP’s NAV price in US Dollars and the EURUSD exchange rate.

Over the four-day period, the NAV in US Dollars was unchanged overall, i.e. 0.0% performance in USD. However, over the period the USD appreciated from 1.15 to 1.10 USD per Euro, so an investor who purchased the ETP in Euros would have seen an overall return of 4.5% (€90.9 end value vs. €87.0 start value), as a result of the change in the exchange rate.

Impact of currency movements over time

Figure 2 below shows how currency movements can have a significant cumulative effect over time, looking at the performance of that same 3x short 10-year US Treasuries ETP.

Figure 2. Currency moves can have a significant impact on returns: 2017 example

Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg. You cannot invest in an index. Historical performance is not an indication of future results and any investments may go down in value.

As you can see, the cumulative NAV return in US Dollars was -5.5% over the period. But a significant depreciation of the USD vs. the Euro resulted in a NAV return in Euros of -15.0%, a considerable 9.5% return difference.

Summary

Whenever investing, currency is likely going to have an impact on your portfolio’s performance, unless underlying, NAV, trading and reporting currencies are all the same. Understanding where this impact lies is important, as it allows you to better understand the potential risks arising from currency exchange movements, which can significantly support or dampen returns.

DISCLAIMER

The content on this document is issued by WisdomTree UK Ltd (“WTUK”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.

For professional clients only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any historical performance included on this document may be based on back testing. Back testing is the process of evaluating an investment strategy by applying it to historical data to simulate what the performance of such strategy would have been. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided on this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. The value of any investment may be affected by exchange rate movements. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the appropriate prospectus and after seeking independent investment, tax and legal advice. These products may not be available in your market or suitable for you. The content of this document does not constitute investment advice nor an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any product or make any investment.

Is US wage growth finally stepping out?

The calendar keeps flying by, and kicking off Q4 economic data, investors recently received the US October employment situation report. The money and bond markets have ‘graduated’ of sorts, and the typical headlines regarding the unemployment rate and new job creation have been rendered more secondary in importance at this point of the cycle, with wages now moving to centre stage. According to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), average hourly earnings (AHE), on a year-over-year basis, broke out of its recent range, begging the question; is US wage growth finally stepping out to the upside?

Without a doubt, the one ‘sticking point’ that seems to have alluded the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in their policy outlook has been the lack of any significant wage growth. Sure, the path of AHE has been on the positive side of the ledger, but the trajectory, or pace of the upside movement, has appeared to have confounded market participants.

Figure 1: Average hourly earnings

Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, as of 2 November 2018

The graph above highlights how the year-over-year rate of increase for AHE had been locked in a rather narrow band of roughly +2.5%-+2.8% since the end of 2015. It seemed as if every time there was a surprise to the upside, the following month or so reversed this performance, rendering any unexpected gain as a ‘false start’. However, over the last three months, the BLS has reported that the AHE annualized gain has twice hit the ‘+3%’ threshold, and in the case of the just released October data, the +3.1% increase represented the best showing since early 2009.

With two out of last three months producing ‘3’ handles for AHE growth, investors may finally be witnessing the long-awaited upside momentum in wages. As we have seen in prior episodes, the trajectory may not always be a straight-up move to the upside, but it does look as if progress is being made on this front. The scope of wage growth throughout various industries was also encouraging, an important point to consider because it can help to rule out the dreaded ‘aberrational’ result which tends to ultimately get cancelled out in future reports.

Conclusion

While the United States Treasury (UST) market did sell-off a bit on response to this data, the back-up in the UST 10-year yield was not necessarily noteworthy, nor did it signal any newfound concerns on the inflation front just yet. Inflation expectations, as measured by ‘breakeven’ spreads were only modestly higher after the jobs report. The bond market and the Fed have been down this road before and will more than likely wait to see the ‘whites of the eyes’ of sustainable wage growth before responding. In fact, this is just the type of result the Fed has long been waiting for. However, developments on the wage front will need to be monitored closely, because any upside surprises to this data, or inflation in general, is not currently factored into UST 10-year yields.

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Separating good from bad emerging market exposure

As pioneers of Modern Alpha™ strategies and currency hedging, WisdomTree has been at the forefront of providing smarter exposure to investors. We have seen an uptick in interest in discussing different strategies for exposure to emerging markets. This comes at a time when emerging market currencies have been under immense pressure due to trade concerns, sanctions and a host of other global macro-related issues.

Should all emerging markets exposures be painted with the same brush? Is there a way to separate emerging markets with lower risk and better fundamentals from those with higher risk with worse fundamentals in the current environment?

Segregating emerging markets into its components

Most investors have treated emerging markets like a single asset class. However, individual countries do have higher and lower risks, just like in any other region. In the European Union, for example, there are fundamental differences between the German and Italian economies. Similarly, in emerging markets, there are fundamental differences between the Indian and Brazilian economies

This is why when it comes to the single biggest threat facing emerging markets stocks right now—trade and geopolitics—we hear of certain countries like China and Turkey much more often than countries like India and South Korea.

When Washington looks into individual trade surpluses, they likely start with some version of the chart below, showing in Figure 1.

At a Chinese trade surplus of over $375 billion, Washington realizes that closing 10% of the total gap with China would be a much bigger victory than closing 100% of the gap with Malaysia, South Korea or especially India individually.

Here I would clarify that not all Chinese equities face the brunt of a trade war in equal measure, but investors should focus on sectors and companies that tap into China’s stellar internal growth, such as Information Technology, which is increasingly the focus of the new China economy, while staying away from traditional manufacturing and industrial companies.

Figure 1: 2017 trade deficit of the US for goods traded with large emerging markets trading partners

Source: US Census Bureau, as of 30 June 2018.

Currency Is Important

Whenever there is any negative sentiment about broad emerging markets, currencies, which are almost entirely driven by global appetite (and macro factors such as inflation and differences in interest rates), are usually the first to be impacted due to knee-jerk reactions from investors. In contrast, equities, which are in part driven by global risk appetite and in part by earnings and economic growth, can continue to do well.

Thus, emerging markets currencies tend to move in a flock, driven by global risk appetite, while stocks can continue to be differentiated from currencies and can offer alternative returns.

The chart shown in Figure 2 indicates how the India Rupee generally has been moving in lockstep with other emerging markets currencies over the last quarter (since trade war concerns started escalating). At the same time, Indian equities (i.e., MSCI India), shown in Figure 3, have demonstrated massive divergence from broad emerging markets equities (i.e., MSCI Emerging Markets Index). Note that outperformance by Indian equities, shown in figure 3, is even more interesting when you consider that it is in US Dollar terms and includes the currency drag of Rupee depreciation over that period.

Figure 2: Performance of MSCI Emerging Markets Index currency exposure & Indian Rupee versus the US Dollar

Sources: Bloomberg, MSCI. Period covered: 1 April 2018 to 31 August 2018. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. You cannot invest directly in an index. Index performance does not represent actual fund or portfolio performance. A fund or portfolio may differ significantly from the securities included in the index. Index performance assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or other expenses that would be incurred by a portfolio or fund, or brokerage commissions on transactions in fund shares. Such fees, expenses and commissions could reduce returns.

Figure 3: Performance of MSCI Emerging Markets Index versus performance of MSCI India Index

So, what has surprised us in emerging markets equity performance this year?

First, we believe a plain market cap-weighted exposure to emerging markets does severe injustice to investor portfolios by exposing investors to the potential risk of higher equity valuations.

We (and others) have watched the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil go from about $66 to about $79 between end of December 2017 to end of August 2018, which has led to the energy sector within the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to be the top-performing sector in this index during 2018 thus far .

The WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Index—which focuses on stocks with some of the highest dividend yields within emerging markets—has mitigated a large amount of the downside risk that has been seen in 2018 :

• WisdomTree Emerging Markets Equity Income Index: -2.09%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Index: -7.18%

Emerging markets as an asset class often earns bad press due to its lower performance concentrated in select sectors, regions or currencies. In my opinion, investors who actively seek out good emerging markets exposure—and avoid bad emerging markets exposure—can capture the long-term growth rates that Emerging Markets has to offer.

Gold inflows strengthen as geopolitical risks take centre stage

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Gold inflows strengthen as geopolitical risks take centre stage

Highlights

Geopolitical risk drives US$33.2mn into long gold ETPs and US$13.
6mn into long silver ETPs.Inflows into copper ETPs rebound with US$29.1mn inflows last week.
US dollar ETP positions widened for the second week in a row to US$10.2mn, as investors positioned against the Euro.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Gold ETPs attracted the largest inflows in 23 weeks as risk aversion took centre stage amidst military activity in Syria and ongoing trade tensions. Following days of sabre rattling by Mr Trump, the US, UK and France launched a missile attack on Friday in an attempt to destroy the Assad regime’s chemical weapon capabilities in Syria. In response, Russian president Vladimir Putin condemned the attack and warned that such action would inevitably lead to chaos. As the first port of call in times of political uncertainty, we expect gold to remain in demand for as long as the conflict between the US and Russia continues on the back of the Syrian crisis. In fact, for most of this year gold has been sporting its safe-haven hat.

US government shutdowns, sabre-rattling between US/Japan and North Korea, the ratcheting up of a trade war between the world’s largest economies, interactions between Russia and NATO sponsors deteriorating back to cold-war tendencies, the potential return of sanctions against Iran and the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran are few of the sources of investor anxiety. Added to that, the weaker greenback has lent buoyancy to gold prices that ended last week higher by 1%. Silver prices have also been benefiting in gold’s slipstream. Silver ETPs received US$13.6mn, marking the fifth consecutive week of inflows. We continue to have a positive view on silver’s fundamentals owing to a strong industrial cycle and constrained mine supply and expect silver to play catch-up in 2018.

Inflows into copper ETPs increase by US$29.1mn, reversing the prior two weeks’ trend of outflows. Owing to their cyclical nature, industrial metal prices have come under considerable pressure as the threat of trade wars continues. Last week Peru, the world’s second largest producer of copper after Chile, confirmed its intention to produce 3mn tons (36% up over the prior year) of copper per year by 2022. While supply has been increasing, the global copper market was in a seasonally adjusted supply deficit of 155,000 tons last year as confirmed by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). While the deficit looks set to decrease marginally on the back of higher supply, demand remains well supported. According to data from the customs authorities, China concentrate imports were up 8% over the prior year in Q1 2018.

US dollar ETPs widened for the second week in a row to US$10.2mn, primarily as investors positioned against the Euro. The rollover of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) in Europe from record highs in January coupled with weaker macro-economic data in Europe last week has dampened sentiment towards the European economic recovery. We believe, the current downturn is only reflective of a midcycle pause and expect Europe’s strong economic growth trajectory to continue.

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