Etikett: Roubini Global Economics

What happens when fundamentals reassert themselves over sentiment?

What happens when fundamentals reassert themselves over sentiment?What happens when fundamentals reassert themselves over sentiment?

What happens when fundamentals reassert themselves over sentiment?

Register for this upcoming webinar, jointly hosted by ETF Securities and Roubini Global Economics

23 June 2015

 

Webinar Invitation

Register for this upcoming webinar, jointly hosted by

ETF Securities & Roubini Global Economics:


What happens when fundamentals reassert themselves over sentiment?

Register for the webinar

Date: Thursday 2 July 2015 | Time: 2 pm (BST)| Duration: 45 minutes

 

Guest Speaker: Sheryl King, Senior Director, Roubini Global Economics


Hosts: Nitesh Shah and Martin Arnold – Research, ETF Securities

Summary

 

We are joined by New York-based Sheryl King, Senior Director, Roubini Global Economics to explore what may happen in bond and equity markets when prices realign with fundamentals. Nitesh Shah and Martin Arnold, our in-house analysts will answer the same question from the perspective of the commodity and foreign exchange markets.

For a while now prices and yields have regularly departed from macro fundamentals and been driven more by the vagaries of sentiment. We are now seeing largely sentiment-driven bond market volatility spreading into other asset classes.

Examples include:

  • Recent sell-off in Bunds, which had little to do with economic surprises and more to do with potential easing of regulatory constraints that had led them to be over-bought
  • Oil price gains since March have run ahead of any material supply tightening, while overly bearish sentiment in industrial metals does not tally with the prospects for supply tightening.
  • Rapidly changing risk on and risk off sentiment is also impacting FX valuations.

In this webinar, we present the highlights from our joint Q3 Outlook, due to be published at the end of June, and will answer questions to help investors navigate an ever more complex and fast changing world.

 


Participation qualifies for 45 minutes of CPD credit

Learn more about the continuing professional development

program.

Register for the webinar

Speaker Biographies

Sheryl King, Senior Director of Global Country Research, Roubini Global Economics 

Most recently, Sheryl was chief economist and strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Canada, where she covered the Canadian and U.S. economies, along with the fixed-income and equity markets. Prior to that, she served as assistant chief economist at Merrill Lynch, where she headed the U.S. economics team overseeing its macro forecasting and leveraging her expertise on the equity and fixed-income markets. Sheryl was also the U.S. macro forecaster at TD Bank and served as the bond and currency strategist for TD Securities. Earlier in her career, she spent eight years working at the Bank of Canada. Sheryl has considerable on-air and print media experience and is a frequent guest columnist for the Globe and Mail. Bloomberg named her the top
sell-side macro forecaster for 2010. Sheryl is a member of the advisory board for the Center for Monetary and Financial Economics at Carleton University. She holds a Bachelor of Arts in economics from Concordia University (Montreal) and a Master of Arts in economics from Carleton University (Ottawa).

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst, ETF Securities 

Nitesh is a multi-asset Research Analyst at ETF Securities covering many markets from commodities to Chinese macroeconomics. Nitesh has 12 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis
University (USA).

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist,

ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and
Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.

For more information contact:

Peter Lidblom

ETF Securities (UK) Limited

T +44 (0) 207 448 8859

E peter.lidblom@etfsecurities.com
Important InformationThis communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”). ETFS UK is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

While this communication is made by ETFS UK, certain content has been produced and provided for ETFS UK by Roubini Global Economics, LLC (“RGE”). RGE is an independent, unaffiliated third party to ETFS UK. No forwarding, reprinting, republication or any other redistribution of this content is permissible without the express consent of RGE and ETFS UK. RGE and ETFS UK reserve the right to enforce their respective copyrights and pursue any such other action as they deem appropriate in respect of any such unauthorised use, republication or redistribution of this communication.

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The Third Industrial Revolution

The Third Industrial Revolution

Introducing a new monthly report co-authored by ETF Securities Research and Roubini Global Economics The Third Industrial Revolution

Download the complete report (.pdf)

The Third Industrial Revolution

his report provides an update to themes introduced in our Quarterly Outlook, published in March. Our focus this month is on the wave of technological innovation that is sometimes known as the third industrial revolution.

Dramatic advances are being made in the fields of robotics, energy, health care, IT and even defense that will increase productivity growth, global welfare and living standards. Technological improvements in robotics and automation will boost productivity and efficiency, translating into gains for manufacturers.

The revolution will also benefit highly skilled workers, as well as consumers, who stand to benefit from the lower prices that result from lower production costs. Some economies will of course lose out as their traditional strengths become weaknesses (in manufacturing, for example), but others, particularly those that manage to invest in education, will win.

What to watch this month: Turkish general election (June 7), which could mark the start of political and economic fragility in the country; FOMC meeting (June 17) – we think the U.S. Federal Reserve will wait until September before hiking, at the earliest.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”). ETFS UK is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

While this communication is made by ETFS UK, certain content has been produced and provided for ETFS UK by Roubini Global Economics, LLC (”RGE”). RGE is an independent, unaffiliated third party to ETFS UK. No forwarding, reprinting, republication or any other redistribution of this content is permissible without the express consent of RGE and ETFS UK. RGE and ETFS UK reserve the right to enforce their respective copyrights and pursue any such other action as they deem appropriate in respect of any such unauthorised use, republication or redistribution of this communication.

Europe’s Political Hurdles

Europe’s Political Hurdles

Introducing a new monthly report co-authored by ETF Securities Research and Roubini Global Economics Europe’s Political Hurdles

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Europe’s Political Hurdles

This report provides an update to themes introduced in our Quarterly Outlook, published in March. Our focus this month is on Europe’s fractious politics and the implications for our key theme of European growth.

We are seeing a growth improvement throughout most of Europe on low interest rates and low oil prices, but fiscal support and structural reforms are needed to make the recovery substantial and persistent. And a heavy political calendar could spoil the party.

Key risks coming up this year, and weighing on business sentiment and investment, include the UK general election in May, with a likely hung parliament, continuing Greek negotiations, the Catalan election in Spain (a proxy referendum on independence) and the Spanish general election later in 2015/early 2016.

What to watch this month: UK general election (May 7); Bank of England monetary policy committee (May 11) for indications of the timing of the first hike; major debt payments due from Greece to its official-sector creditors (May 8-15); Spanish regional elections (May 24) for indications about how the general election might progress.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”). ETFS UK is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

While this communication is made by ETFS UK, certain content has been produced and provided for ETFS UK by Roubini Global Economics, LLC (”RGE”). RGE is an independent, unaffiliated third party to ETFS UK. No forwarding, reprinting, republication or any other redistribution of this content is permissible without the express consent of RGE and ETFS UK. RGE and ETFS UK reserve the right to enforce their respective copyrights and pursue any such other action as they deem appropriate in respect of any such unauthorised use, republication or redistribution of this communication.

The World of Negative Rates

The World of Negative Rates

Introducing a new monthly report co-authored by ETF Securities Research and Roubini Global Economics The World of Negative Rates

Download the complete report (.pdf)

The World of Negative Rates

This report provides an update to themes introduced in our Quarterly Outlook, published on 21 January 2015. Our focus this month is on the uncharted waters of negative interest rates and what that implies for our key theme of monetary policy divergence and opportunities across asset markets.

Differing recoveries from the global financial crisis and the oil price slump have resulted in extremely low inflation in certain economies. In some cases (such as Europe), low oil prices have only reinforced deflationary trends.

This has opened up both the room and necessity for unusually low and even negative policy rates, particularly in Europe, even as other central banks, most notably as the Fed, prepare to hike. Safe-haven demand has plunged even longer-duration assets into negative territory.

What to watch this month: European Central Bank governing council meeting (Mar 5); Bank of England inflation and wages data (Mar 5); Chinese Jan and Feb macro data (Mar) for clarity on China’s growth and policy path; FOMC policy

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”). ETFS UK is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

While this communication is made by ETFS UK, certain content has been produced and provided for ETFS UK by Roubini Global Economics, LLC (”RGE”). RGE is an independent, unaffiliated third party to ETFS UK. No forwarding, reprinting, republication or any other redistribution of this content is permissible without the express consent of RGE and ETFS UK. RGE and ETFS UK reserve the right to enforce their respective copyrights and pursue any such other action as they deem appropriate in respect of any such unauthorised use, republication or redistribution of this communication.

Tumbling Oil Prices – Winners and Losers

Tumbling Oil Prices – Winners and Losers

Tumbling Oil Prices – Winners and Losers Introducing a new monthly report co-authored by ETF Securities Research and Roubini Global Economics

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Tumbling Oil Prices – Winners and Losers

This report provides an update to themes introduced in our Quarterly Outlook, published on 21 January 2015. Our focus this month is on what the tumbling oil prices imply for our key theme of growth and monetary policy divergence, particularly in light of the European Central Bank’s decision to add sovereign bonds to its quantitative easing (QE).

The global economy is dealing with the biggest oil supply glut since the mid-1980s, and financial markets continue to sort the winners from the losers.

In our view, lower oil prices are not a zero-sum game. Although the main impact is a transfer of wealth from producers to consumers; they are a net positive for the global economy, supporting growth, reducing inflation, improving importers’ external balances and giving space for global central banks to ease.

What to watch this month: Riksbank meeting (Feb 12) to monitor Sweden’s response to the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing; deadline for Greek package (Feb 28) for clarity on the eurozone debt situation; U.S. employment (Feb 6) CPI (Feb 26) for clarity on the Fed’s rate path.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”). ETFS UK is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

While this communication is made by ETFS UK, certain content has been produced and provided for ETFS UK by Roubini Global Economics, LLC (”RGE”). RGE is an independent, unaffiliated third party to ETFS UK. No forwarding, reprinting, republication or any other redistribution of this content is permissible without the express consent of RGE and ETFS UK. RGE and ETFS UK reserve the right to enforce their respective copyrights and pursue any such other action as they deem appropriate in respect of any such unauthorised use, republication or redistribution of this communication.