Beijing har under veckan devalverat yuanen, med den största nedskrivningen på tjugo år. Devalveringen gjordes genom att sänka den referensränta som används för att sätta valutakursen, sänkningen gjordes ned till 1,9 procent. Sänkningen kan anses vara liten, men det är det största fallet på mer än 20 år och den lägsta nivån på mer än tre år. Den kinesiska centralbanken har låtit yuanen stiga med mer än 30 procent under de senaste tio åren, en direkt effekt på klagomål från centralbankerna i USA och Europa som ansåg att den kinesiska valutan var undervärderad. Detta säger emellertid inte. Därför devalverade Kina yuanen. Den kinesiska centralbanken har valt att inte låta yuanen flöda fritt, istället kan den röra sig i ett spann på +/- två procent mot den växelkurs som ställs mot den amerikanska dollarn varje dag. Denna mittpunkt ligger ofta i total opposition till den plats där marknaden är på väg, ungefär som Beijing har försökt att köpa aktier snabbare än investerare säljer den för att undvika att börsen kraschar.
I en ekonomi där valutan hålls så pass hårt och de officiella uppgifterna kanske inte alltid avspeglar den ekonomiska verkligheten är devalveringen det tydligaste tecknet på att de styrande i Beijing anser att den kinesiska ekonomin behöver ett uppsving. En billigare yuan gör automatiskt den kinesiska exporten mer attraktiv. De styrande i Beijing föredrar att marknadsföra det som ett bevis Kina är redo att börja föra ett mer marknadsvänligt system för valuta som skulle ge yuanen status som reservvaluta och bättre tro från investerare.
Som en direkt effekt av detta följde övriga asiatiska valutor med ned. Kinas grannländer kommer att följa denna händelse noga för att se om detta kan vara ett sätt att bli mer lyhörd mot valutamarknaden. Sjunker yuanen för mycket kan det komma att innebära att övriga kinesiska länders export drabbas på bekostnad av Kina.
• Precious metals extend rally while energy continues to slide.
• Equity market volatility spikes as more than 5 trillion is wiped out from global equity markets since China devalued its Yuan.
• Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc remain strongest amidst risk averse backdrop.
Asian markets have opened the week sharply lower, exacerbating the global selloff in the aftermath of China’s currency reform. Despite attempts made by the Chinese government from lowering interest rates to the reserve requirement, suspending stock trading and finally devaluing its currency, sentiment is decisively negative. Equity market volatility along with Fed dovish Federal Reserve minutes has helped gold prices rally and any dovishness from this week’s meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole could add to that momentum.
Commodities
Precious metals extend rally while energy continues to slide. Gold at US$ 1154/oz has staged a comeback attaining its highest level in 5 weeks. Concerns over China’s growth path and slightly more dovish set of Federal Reserve Policy minutes drove gold higher in US dollar terms. The 38% y-o-y increase in platinum imports by China in July has helped support this week’s advance of 5.4%. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to US$39 and US$45 per barrel respectively continuing their 8th week of declines, the longest losing streak since 1986. The lowest reading in 9 years 47.1 in Caixin’s China purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for August coupled with the surprise increase of 2.5mn barrels in crude oil stocks by the US Department of Energy raised fears of waning demand in an oversupplied market.
Equities
Equity market volatility spikes as more than 5 trillion is wiped out from global equity markets since China devalued its Yuan. Weaker Chinese PMI data outweighed the strengthening European PMI data, accelerating a selloff in global equity markets. France’s economy stagnated in the second quarter and despite factory data in Germany rising to a 4-year high, the DAX fell 7.8%. Commodity stocks that make up about fifth of the FTSE 100 Index weighting caused the Index’s biggest weekly decline since December. In particular, mining giant Glencore PLC was the latest to fall prey to the commodity rout as profits declined 56% in H1. Its plans to close Eland platinum mine in South Africa and divest its 23.9% holding in Lonmin Plc (the world’s third largest platinum producer) extended further pressure on platinum supply.
Currencies
Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc remain strongest amidst risk averse backdrop. With risk off the table, the unwinding of carry trades lent support to low yielding currencies namely Euro and Yen. Although the impending Greek elections following Syriza party’s split could pose a risk to the Euro. The lack of a clear signal from the Fed minutes and miss on the manufacturing PMI pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike in September from 50 to 28 percent, reversing the strengthening dollar. The continued weakness in oil prices weighed heavily on the Canadian currency. The positive CPI print early in the week lent support to Sterling as investors see encouraging signs of the UK moving nearer to a rate increase.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Därför devalverade Kina yuanen Beijing har under veckan devalverat yuanen, med den största nedskrivningen på tjugo år. Devalveringen gjordes genom att sänka den referensränta som används för att sätta valutakursen, sänkningen gjordes ned till 1,9 procent. Sänkningen kan anses vara liten, men det är det största fallet på mer än 20 år och den lägsta nivån på mer än tre år. Den kinesiska centralbanken har låtit yuanen stiga med mer än 30 procent under de senaste tio åren, en direkt effekt på klagomål från centralbankerna i USA och Europa som ansåg att den kinesiska valutan var undervärderad. Detta säger emellertid inte. Därför devalverade Kina yuanen. Den kinesiska centralbanken har valt att inte låta yuanen flöda fritt, istället kan den röra sig i ett spann på +/- två procent mot den växelkurs som ställs mot den amerikanska dollarn varje dag. Denna mittpunkt ligger ofta i total opposition till den plats där marknaden är på väg, ungefär som Beijing har försökt att köpa aktier snabbare än investerare säljer den för att undvika att börsen kraschar.
I en ekonomi där valutan hålls så pass hårt och de officiella uppgifterna kanske inte alltid avspeglar den ekonomiska verkligheten är devalveringen det tydligaste tecknet på att de styrande i Beijing anser att den kinesiska ekonomin behöver ett uppsving. En billigare yuan gör automatiskt den kinesiska exporten mer attraktiv. De styrande i Beijing föredrar att marknadsföra det som ett bevis Kina är redo att börja föra ett mer marknadsvänligt system för valuta som skulle ge yuanen status som reservvaluta och bättre tro från investerare.
Som en direkt effekt av detta följde övriga asiatiska valutor med ned. Kinas grannländer kommer att följa denna händelse noga för att se om detta kan vara ett sätt att bli mer lyhörd mot valutamarknaden. Sjunker yuanen för mycket kan det komma att innebära att övriga kinesiska länders export drabbas på bekostnad av Kina.
Oil and Gold ETPs Remain in Focus Despite Easing Geopolitical Tensions
ETF Securities – Oil and Gold ETPs Remain in Focus Despite Easing Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical risks remained a focus for investors last week, with gold and oil ETPs seeing the 8th consecutive week of inflows. Russia and Ukraine progressed towards the termination of the conflict by agreeing on a permanent ceasefire, but fighting resumed on Sunday, threatening to end the truce. While the geopolitical situation appears to be improving, demand for defensive assets is likely to remain strong as uncertainty surrounding the relationship between Ukraine and Russia lingers. Meanwhile, the ECB surprised the market by cutting interest rates by 10bps and announcing a programme of purchasing asset backed securities last week, in an attempt to reinvigorate economic activity.
Oil and gold ETPs continue to see inflows despite easing geopolitical tensions.
ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL) sees the highest inflows since June as price drops to US$19oz.
Profit taking drives US$18.1mn of outflows from ETFS Aluminium (ALUM)
Oil and gold ETPs continue to see inflows despite easing geopolitical tensions. While it appears the easing in geopolitical tension surrounding the Russia/Ukraine standoff has weighed on precious metal and oil prices, investors continued to build hedges into their portfolios, with US$21.6mn added to long gold and oil ETPs last week. Gold ETPs recorded their 8th consecutive weekly inflows, totalling US$3.3mn last week. While the geopolitical situation appears to be improving, demand for defensive assets is likely to remain strong as uncertainty surrounding the relationship between Ukraine and Russia lingers. Moreover, we believe the continued recovery of US and China economies will also support demand for oil during the second half of 2014 with OPEC likely to reduce supply if demand and prices remain depressed. With speculative net long positions in oil futures likely to recover in the near term, we view current oil price levels as a good entry point and target Brent and WTI at US$110/bbl and US$105/bbl respectively.
ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL) sees the highest inflows since June as price drops to US$19oz. Inflows into LSIL totalled US$6.9mn last week. The silver price has been trending lower for the past 7 weeks and it is now getting close to attractive levels, in our opinion. While inventories remain elevated, signalling lacklustre industrial demand, silver price is trading closer to its marginal cost of production that currently stands at US$15oz. The Silver Institute expects demand for the metal to grow at around 5% per annum over the next two years thanks to a sharp turnaround in the global photovoltaic industry, led by China. In the medium term we expect the trend of destocking and price appreciation to resume as the global recovery gains pace.
Profit taking drives US$18.1mn of outflows from ETFS Aluminium (ALUM). Aluminium price is up 19% since the beginning of the year as production cuts have substantially improved the fundamentals of a market which has been plagued by oversupply for years. At the same time, copper ETPs saw US$68mn of outflows last week. Copper has lagged other industrial metals like aluminium, nickel and zinc this year, on aggressive production expectations and fears of a slowdown in China. However, we believe fears of copper oversupply are overblown and that copper remains attractive at current price levels given the underlying fundamentals.
Key events to watch this week. This week is relatively light in terms of economic releases, with industrial production figures for the UK, Japan, the Eurozone and India dominating the news flow. China’s new yuan loans, CPI and exports will also be monitored as investors try to assess the effectiveness of government policies on the real economy
Video Presentation
Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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En starkare kinesisk yuan – så kan du investera med ETF
En starkare kinesisk yuan – så kan du investera med ETF. Kinas centralbank, PBOC, meddelade i lördags att det högsta tillåtna dagliga handelsintervallet för yuanens växelkurs dubblas till 1 procent. Detta var första gången sedan maj 2007 som Kina förändrade det tillåtna intervallet. Yuanen har stärkts mot dollarn från cirka 6,60 USD till cirka 6,30 USD på ett år, se nedanstående graf.
Går det att investera direkt eller indirekt i yuanen? Jag kommer att presentera några tillgängliga ETF/ETP-alternativ med fokus på valuta- och obligationsinstrument nedan.
Valuta
Viktigt att klargöra att den kinesiska valutan renminbi handlas i ”mainland” Kina medan yuanen handlas offshore i Hong Kong. De två valutorna ska röra sig lika men avvikelser kan uppkomma. Tillgängliga yuan-valuta alternativ inkluderar WisdomTree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (ticker CYB). Det är även den ETF som handlas mest och som har störst förvaltat kapital. I år är avkastningen svagt negativ för denna ETF men sett över en tolvmånadersperiod är uppgången över 11 procent.
Obligationer
Dim sum obligationer är obligationer prissatta i yuan och noterade i Hong Kong. Både kinesiska företag och utländska företag kan notera dim sum obligationer. PowerShares Chinese Yuan Dim Sum Bond Portfolio (ticker DSUM) den ETF som handlas mest och som har störst förvaltat kapital. De flesta ETF-alternativen har endast innehav i relativt korta obligationer, vilket innebär att räntan/yielden blir ganska låg. DSUM har en ränta (SEC 30 day yield) som endast uppgår till 3,37 procent.
ETF-tabell
[table id=301 /]
Källa: Factset, 17 april, all avkastning i SEK
För den mest handlade yuan-ETF:en, se graf nedan.
För den mest handlade Dim Sum obligations-ETF:en, se graf nedan.
