En börshandlad fond för kinesiska large cap aktier
När aktiekurserna i de utvecklade ekonomierna ligger på sina högsta nivåer på ungefär tre år överväger vissa investerare alternativ. En marknad som flera väljer att titta på är Kina, världens största emerging market. iShares China Large Cap ETF (NYSEArca: FXI), en av de största kinafokuserade börshandlade fonderna. FXI är en börshandlad fond för kinesiska large cap aktier som har utvecklats väl under 2017.
Löpande reformer, särskilt från utbudssidan, kan ytterligare stödja den kinesiska ekonomiska tillväxten. Reformer har stärkt industrins lönsamhet och stärkt råvarupriserna. Kinas exportörer åtnjuter också förbättringar från en återhämtning i den globala handeln.
En stabil och konsekvent tillväxt
Investerare kommer att ta hand om det faktum att Kinas ekonomiska tillväxt inte är vad den var under de senaste rusningarna för tillväxtmarknaderna. För en ekonomi som ofta anses vara för het, kan en stabil och konsekvent tillväxt vara vad utländska investerare verkligen vill se.
Den kinesiska ekonomin växlar över mot inhemsk konsumtion som en viktig tillväxtdrivare. Följaktligen blir konsumtionsdrivna sektorer som teknik och tjänster växande faktorer i den kinesiska ekonomin.
Mätt i dollar har FXI haft en genomsnittlig årlig avkastning på 8,62% sedan starten. Eftersom Kinabara varit igång över en börskrasch 2015, har den genomsnittliga årliga avkastningen under de senaste 3 och 5 åren bara varit 4,78% respektive 5,82%. Däremot tycks aktiemarknaden visa några tecken på återhämtning på senare tid med en avkastning på 18,91% under det senaste året.
Få aktier
FXI kritiseras ofta eftersom denna börshandlade fond bara innehar 51 aktier. Den allokerar dessutom 53 proent av sin vikt till finansiella tjänster, nästan fem gånger den näst största sektorns vikt.
Yuanens svaghet har varit en invändning för investerare som beaktar Kina. Det scenariot kan förändras till det bättre. Den kinesiska valutan kommer att stärkas när yuanen går in i Internationella valutafondens korg av reservervalutor, eftersom den går samman med i dollar, euro, pund och yen.
Med vikten av att yuanen tillväxt som ett alternativ till den amerikanska dollarn kan investeringsflöden till Kina hjälpa till att stödja de kinesiska marknader och landsspecifika börshandlade fonder.
FXI är ett utmärkt investeringsinstrument för placerare som vill investera på den största tillväxtmarknaden i världen. När man jämför Kina med S & P500 är FXI relativt billigt. Även om detta kan innebära en potential för högre avkastning, måste investerarna vara medvetna om den kinesiska marknadens stora volatilitet och de risker som är förknippade med Kina. Investerare bör vara försiktiga och undvika att jaga marknaden.
iShares China Large-Cap (NYSEArca: FXI)
Denna ETF replikerar investeringsresultaten av FTSE China 50 Index, ett index som består av kinesiska large cap aktier som handlas på Hongkongbörsen. Den här börshandlade fonden investerar i allmänhet åtminstone 90 % av sina tillgångar i värdepapper i det underliggande indexet och i depåbevis som representerar värdepapper i det underliggande indexet. Indexet är utformat för att följa utvecklingen av de största företagen på den kinesiska aktiemarknaden som är tillgängliga för internationella investerare. Fonden är icke-diversifierad.
ETF Securities Currencies – Chinese Renminbi, The Basics
Summary
The liberalisation of currency controls and the growth of the “Dim-sum” bond market have seen the global trade of the hinese Renminbi (RMB) soar in recent years.
The RMB has come into sharp focus since last August, where its sudden depreciation generated a severe market selloff.
The RMB is traded on both onshore and offshore markets and rates between the two can differ.
Capital controls currently in place require the use of Non- Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) to gain exposure to the onshore RMB exchange rate for investors.
Since the development of the Yuan in 1948, Chinese authorities have maintained strict control over its value, pegging it to the US Dollar at various levels to meet economic objectives1. From 1994, the fixed exchange rate regime saw China accumulate a large trade surplus and considerable foreign exchange reserves (see Figure 1) as the undervaluation of the currency kept international exports artificially competitive.
(click to enlarge) 1 A Yuan is a unit of Chinese currency and is to the Renminbi (RMB) what the Pound is to Sterling, so both terms can be used interchangeably.
Unsurprisingly, this policy was unpopular and generated pressure from its primary trading partners, pressure which in 2005 led to a movement towards a “managed floating” exchange rate regime and a removal of the peg. This gave the currency more flexibility but still allowed for government influence on its overall level.
In more recent years, Chinese authorities have altered course and have progressively removed barriers to the free trade of the RMB. These moves have prompted the growing use of the Yuan in international business, with the RMB recently surpassing the Japanese Yen to become the fourth most popular payment currency globally (SWIFT, 2015). In addition, the proliferation of the “Dim-sum” bond market in 2009, which are bonds issued outside of China denominated in RMB have also helped the internationalisation of the currency. Global bodies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have also acknowledged the increasingly “free” use of the RMB and have included the Yuan in the valuation of its coveted Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket in October of last year.
(click to enlarge)
Many faces of the RMB
The global market for the RMB is somewhat segmented and so is quoted in a number of forms.
The RMB is traded both on the onshore Chinese market and on numerous offshore markets in Hong Kong, London, Singapore and New York. On a daily basis the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the Chinese Central bank, provides a daily fixing (at 09.15 local time) for the onshore rate (CNY) against the a basket of reference currencies, around which the pair can trade within a ±2% band. This onshore market, despite being somewhat liberalised, is still subject to considerable regulation.
The offshore market rate (CNH) is not subject to as strict controls and is ultimately determined by market forces. While the CNY and CNH rates tend to move in tandem, differences in liquidity and capital restrictions on arbitrage prevent this gap from closing permanently (see Figure 2).
Yuan plunges
On August 11th 2015, the PBoC announced that it would modify the mechanism through which the daily Yuan fixing would take place. In attempt to foster a more “market-driven” process, quotes from onshore primary dealers would be used as inputs into the calculation of the fix on a daily basis. That morning, the USD/CNY fix plunged 1.9% and the next day a further 1.0% in response, the largest absolute one day moves since the peg was removed in 2005.
The sharp declines sparked speculation that Chinese authorities were more concerned about domestic growth than previously anticipated and permitted the depreciation to boost the competitiveness of Chinese exports. The Chinese stock market reaction was sharp; with the Hang Seng Index plunging 3% intraday (see Figure 3). The impact was felt globally, with other major equity indices also falling considerably, only to recoup losses in the subsequent trade.
(click to enlarge)
How to trade the CNY
Due to trading restrictions imposed on the CNY, a liquid market for CNY Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) has blossomed. An NDF is a forward contract that fixes the exchange rate for a currency transaction at some point in the future. At expiry the profit/loss of the underlying contract is calculated and converted into US Dollars and settled.
NDF’s evolved out of the necessity for market participants to hedge exposure to currencies such as the CNY, Taiwan Dollar (TWD) and the Brazilian Real (BRL) all of which are subject to capital controls and cannot be physically delivered. Like FX forwards, the rates at which NDFs price is based on expected future interest rate differentials between the two relevant currencies.
When using NDFs, an investor has to “roll” his/her position prior to expiry in order for the currency exposure to be maintained. “Rolling” involves closing out a near term position before it expires and re-investing in a longer dated forward. Like in other asset classes this process can incur a cost/gain depending on the shape of the forward curve. As mentioned previously, interest rate differentials determine forward FX levels and thus dictate the shape of the curve and the corresponding impact of the roll (see Figure 4).
(click to enlarge)
An alternative to investing through NDF’s directly is to utilise currency exchange traded products (ETPs). Currency ETPs provide a transparent, liquid and freely tradable medium through which to gain access to emerging market currency pairs. Currency ETPs trade like shares and mitigate some of the operational complexities involved in investing in NDFs, although indices are priced from NDF’s.
Prospects for the CNY
Chinese authorities continue to manage the nation’s transition from an export and investment led fast growing economy to a more moderate mature consumer driven model. Recent declines in the PBoC’s FX reserves and intervention in the onshore stock market reflect the government’s desire for stability during this period of change. Therefore the possibility of further monetary intervention remains, which, in the near term which could weigh the RMB.
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Den kinesiska draken bereder plats för den indiska tigern när Indiens ekonomi växer snabbare än Kinas. I veckan publicerades Indiens BNP-siffror som visar att Indien nu tagit positionen som den snabbast växande ekonomin bland de större länderna. Enligt landets centralbyrå rapporterar Indien en BNP-tillväxt om 7,3 procent för 2015, och prognosen för 2016 ligger på en tillväxt om 7,6 procent. Indiens ekonomi växer snabbare än Kinas
Kina som länge har fungerat som ett draglok för den globala ekonomin rapporterade en BNP-tillväxt om 6,9 procent för 2015, men väntas rapportera en väsentligt sämre siffra för 2016 eftersom landet har plågats av flera ekonomiska problem som som sträcker sig från en nedgång i efterfrågan till kapitalutflöden på grund av en deprecierande yuan. Detta är emellertid inte första gången som Indien har gått sin granne. Enligt IMF inträffade detta under 1981, 1989, 1990, och 1999.
Tillverkning visade sig vara den stora vinnaren bland alla sektorer när det gäller att rapportera tillväxt förra året. Enligt den indiska regeringens statistik växte denna sektor med en hastighet om 12,6 procent. Å andra sidan, jordbruksektorn minskade med 1 procent.
Indiens premiärminister Narendra Modi har gjort ett antal resor utomlands för att främja landets tillverkningskapacitet och har presenterat ett särskilt program som kallas ”Make in India” för att locka till sig utländska investerare. Regeringen har också åtagit sig att skapa 100 miljoner tillverkningsrelaterade arbeten och öka tillverkningssektorns totala andel av Indiens ekonomi till 25 procent.
Tvivel om BNP tillväxt
Förväntningarna är att Indiens ekonomi kommer att driva den globala tillväxten under det kommande decenniet. Det finns emellertid tvivel om landets tillväxtsiffror. Flera ekonomer har ifrågasatt regeringens officiella siffror avsende tillväxtsiffrorna. På Mubaibaserade JA Bank säger chefsekonomen Shubhada Rao att det är svårt att se korrelationen. Hon hänvisade till till indikatorer såsom företagens orderböcker och lagerförhållanden som inte överensstämmer med den indiska regeringens bedömning av sektorn.
”Make in India” kampanjen har varit mycket uppmärksammad i pressen, men den har ännu så länge inte resulterat i några konkreta resultat hittills. I själva verket, enligt vissa bedömare så har denna kampanj drabbats av byråkratiska problem. Samtidigt visar annan data att Indiens kapitalflöden endast förbättrats marginellt sedan föregående år.
Det finns vissa sektorer som håller uppe den indiska ekonomin, till exempel IT och e-handeln, men enligt Ritika Mankar Mukherjee, analytiker på Ambit Capital så har stora delar av landets ekonomi saktat ned. Samtidigt förutspår IMF att Indiens ekonomi kommer att växa med 7,5 procent nästa år.
Slutsats
Under många år hade Indien en låg ekonomisk tillväxt. Avregleringen 1991 ledde emellertid att landets ekonomi satte fart. Frågan är bara om den indiska tigern kommer att kunna behålla sin ledarposition i en deprimerande global omvärld.
Sydkoreas utsikter omprövas efter FED-besked IShares MSCI Sydkorea Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWY), den största amerikanska börsnoterade fonden som replikerar utvecklingen av aktiemarknaden i Sydkorea, är vanligtvis en av de mest foglig tillväxtmarknadsfonderna, men denna ETF har nyligen fallit sedan Kina devalverat yuanen och oro för Federal Reserves räntepolitik. Nu kommer Sydkoreas utsikter omprövas efter FED-besked.
FED låter styrräntan vara oförändrad
Det senaste beskedet om att FED låter styrräntan vara oförändrad kan komma att fungera som en katalysator som gör att investerarna omvärderas både Sydkorea och EWY, en börshandlad fond som sett utflöden på mer än 166 MUS under september 2015. Vi ser redan nu hur utländska investerare försiktigt doppar tårna i den sydkoreanska aktiemarknaden.
Under veckan har utländska investerare nettoköpt asiatiska aktier för 789 USD, Kina och Malaysia oräknade. Detta är det största inflödet till dessa tillväxtekonomier sedan april enligt uppgifter från Credit Suisse. Av detta belopp investerades 184 MUS i Sydkorea, som även efter denna kapitalinjektion har ett nettoutflöde under månaden.
Sydkorea och Taiwan är de länder som är mest utsatta för yuanens svaghet
Mirae Asset Management hävdar att Sydkorea och Taiwan är de länder som är mest utsatta för yuanens svaghet då Kina står för 39% av Sydkoreas och 29% av Taiwans export.
Högre utdelningar och aktiesplittar har uppmuntrande vissa investerare. Koreanska företag står inför ökat tryck från regeringen att höja utdelningen, som är bland de lägsta av alla stora ekonomierna i Asien. Då Samsungs aktiekurs har rasat är utdelningar kortsiktigt kanske inte tillräckligt för att skapa ett stort intresse för sydkoreanska aktier på kort sikt.
Det som däremot lett till ett ökat intresse för Sydkorea är låga energipriser och låga kapitalkostnader, något som bäddar för en framtida vinsttillväxt. Sydkorea är en nettoenergiimportör, vilket innebär att det är en av de framväxande marknader som bör gynnas av låga energipriser.
Investerare satsar på att Bank of Koreas ansträngningar att försvaga landets valuta, wonen, kommer att leda till uppvärderingar för de sydkoreanska aktierna. Det skulle i sådant fall också gynna de valutasäkrade börshandlade fonderna som Deutsche dX-trackers MSCI South Korea Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEArca: DBKO) och WisdomTree Korea Hedged Equity Fund (NasdaqGM: DXKW).
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.
Market Review
Gold reacted favorably to the panic that afflicted global financial markets in August. Events unfolding in China brought weakness and volatility to markets around the world. Gold started trending higher on August 11 when the Chinese government made adjustments to the way the yuan is currently managed, enabling the currency to experience its largest two-day decline in more than a decade. Some analysts saw this as a desperate attempt by China to help stimulate its ailing economy through currency devaluation. With confidence waning, on August 18 China’s stock markets began a plunge to new lows for the year, with the Shanghai CSI 100 Index2 declining 24% in six trading days. This reverberated through global markets as commodities, emerging market currencies, and many developed market stock indices declined to new lows.
While the gold market encountered considerable volatility, gold bullion outperformed most asset classes in August with a $38.98 (3.6%) gain, compared to declines of 1.5% for copper, 1.3% for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)3, and 6.0% for the S&P 500 Index.4 Gold stocks felt the pressure of the general stock market selloff, however, they were still able to achieve gains for the month, as shown by the 2.06% advance in the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the 4.66% gain in the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index.5
Several indicators suggested tight supplies of physical gold in August. After experiencing heavy redemptions in July, gold bullion exchange-traded products became buyers, Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums trended higher, and gold forward lease rates turned negative. Offsetting these bullish indicators were reports of hedging by gold producers in Australia. With the Australian dollar gold price up 9.8% this year, some producers are seeing an opportunity to use limited hedging (selling gold forward) to ensure cash flows to high cost operations or to service debt.
Market Outlook
In August, gold performed as a safe haven investment, evidenced by its outperformance against most asset classes in the midst of widespread panic. Investors were afraid that further economic weakness in China might spread to engulf the global economy. Since 2013 gold has experienced several short-covering rallies sparked by geopolitical or financial stress. The last took place in January, when Greek debt problems reemerged and the Swiss broke its currency’s peg to the euro. These rallies had no legs because, in our opinion, the risks that drove them posed no real or lasting threat to the global economy, particularly the U.S. economy or financial system. Now financial risk is again driving gold and we ask, is this another temporary short-covering rally or the beginning of a sustainable trend? Once the short covering has run its course, is there enough investment demand to drive gold?
While the weak Chinese economy certainly bears watching, we believe international markets are overreacting. China has been working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others to enable the yuan to achieve international currency reserve status. The IMF is expected to make a decision, which may come later in 2016, on whether to include the yuan in its currency basket. The recent disclosure of China’s gold reserves and moves to eventually enable the yuan to float freely are part of this process. It looks as though the Chinese government is learning the hard way that changing currency policy in the midst of a stock market rout is not the best timing.
The meteoric rise of the Chinese stock market this year was driven mainly by a change in margin rules that enabled retail investors to speculate. With the market crash, the Chinese government is again learning the hard way what happens when inexperienced investors are given access to loans used to speculate on the market.
While these events are important to China, their fundamental impact on the global economy and financial system dissipates as one moves further from Asia. The Asian crisis of 1997 – 1998 was much worse, eventually triggering a Russian debt default and the implosion of hedge fund management firm, Long Term Capital Management. Yet the U.S. economy survived unscathed and gold’s overall trend was down from 1996 to 1999. Similarly, we don’t believe current events in China can serve as the source of longer-term support for gold as a safe-haven investment in the West.
Rather than focus on China, we see far greater risk elsewhere. The markets are quite nervous, which is not a good backdrop at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) is poised to make a historic rate decision. With policy rates near zero, the Fed’s primary tool (rate cuts) to kick start the economy is useless, in our view. This probably accounts for much of the nervousness, as investors must decide whether a shock in Asia can generate a market tsunami that reaches U.S. shores with virtually no policy protection.
Now the rest of the world must wonder whether the Fed will set off a ripple effect with a rate increase that turns into a tsunami on distant shores. The U.S. economy is relatively healthy and could probably withstand a series of rate increases. However, the Japanese economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter.6
China’s struggles are widely known. Brazil is in recession. European growth is slow and consumer prices advanced just 0.2% (annualized) in August.7 The price of WTI crude oil fell below $40 per barrel in August and copper is nearing $2.00 per pound. The flow of easy money brought on by quantitative easing8 and the carry trade into emerging markets reversed course when the Fed began to taper a couple of years ago. The world outside of the U.S. is now on the verge of deflation. Will rising rates, a strong U.S. dollar, and economic opportunities in the U.S. suck the remaining economic life (growth capital) out of the global economy? Can the U.S. remain an island of prosperity?
An important difference between now and the period of the 1997 Asian crisis are the imbalances in the global financial system caused by radical monetary and fiscal policies. Imbalances in interest rates, sovereign debt, asset prices, and central bank holdings are currently at unprecedented levels. Raising rates in a weak global economy with macro imbalances has risks. Postponing or eventually reversing course would damage the Fed’s credibility and would risk a loss of confidence. As we move towards 2016, these are some of the issues that could be supportive of the gold market. The more probable source of systemic risk lies in Washington, D.C., not Beijing.
Important Information For Foreign Investors
This document does not constitute an offering or invitation to invest or acquire financial instruments. The use of this material is for general information purposes.
Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers actively managed and passively managed investment products that invest in the asset class(es) included in this material. Gold investments can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. Gold equities may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry, and are subject to interest rate risk and market risk. Investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, including the takeover of property without adequate compensation or imposition of prohibitive taxation.
Please note that Joe Foster is the Portfolio Manager of an actively managed gold strategy.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the Fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. 2CSI 100 consists of the largest 100 stocks in CSI 300. CSI 100 aims to comprehensively reflect the price fluctuation and performance of the large and influential companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen securities market. 3U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. The DXY does this by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and six major world currencies: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner, and Swiss franc. 4S&P 500® Index (S&P 500) consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial, and transportation sectors. 5Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver. 6Cabinet Office Data Release, August 18, 2015. 7Eurostat data, August 2015. 8Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by a central bank to stimulate an economy when standard monetary policy has become ineffective.
