Etikett: ZAR

Centralbankernas åtgärder signalerar tydlig vändpunkt för globala räntor

Centralbankernas åtgärder signalerar tydlig vändpunkt för globala räntorCentralbankernas åtgärder signalerar tydlig vändpunkt för globala räntor

  • Pundet kommer stärkas när korta positioner stängs
  • Avtagande stimulans boostar euron mot 1,10
  • FTSE100 och amerikanska småbolag känsliga för stigande räntor
  • Obligationer kopplade till inflation kommer att gå starkt

Enligt ETF Securities, en av världens ledande oberoende leverantörer av börshandlade produkter (ETP), kommer en viktig vändpunkt för globala räntor att nås under 2017. Centralbankernas åtgärder signalerar tydlig vändpunkt för globala räntor.

Efter nästan ett decennium av artificiellt låga räntor kommer centralbanker äntligen kunna förhålla sig mer balanserat till räntesättning, utan att behöva oroa sig över en politisk och ekonomisk instabilitet.

James Butterfill, Analyschef på ETF Securities, säger: “Efter en period av frikostig penningpolitik som vi inte har skådat tidigare, är tiden fram tills vi når vändpunkten för när centralbankerna kan normalisera räntorna beroende av ett antal förestående risker.

En våg av populism och ett potentiellt avtagande av globaliseringen kan öka på inflationstrycket ytterligare, vilket kan hämma centralbankernas återgång till ’det normala’. Dessutom har Federal Reserve varit för långsamma med åtstramningar och med så mycket statsskuld kommer centralbankernas återgång till ’det normala’ vara en utmaning.

Vi tror att det mest sannolika scenariot kommer att bli en fortsatt försiktig och återhållsam penningpolitik från centralbankerna under 2017 och 2018. Annars riskerar de att hamna efter i kurvan och kommer då att behöva dra åt svångremmen mer aggressivt senare i cykeln.”

Valutapåverkan

ETF Securities förväntar sig att Bank of England höjer räntan 2017, men att de inte tar bort sin balansräkningsstimulans från ekonomin, vilket kan innebära potential för pundet som för närvarande är den mest undervärderade valutan i G10-sfären, då investerare stänger sina korta positioner.

”På grund av dramatiska ekonomiska förbättringar och en ökning av inflationsförväntningarna, tror vi att den Europeiska Centralbanken (ECB) skulle kunna avsluta sitt QE-program i slutet av året och att den avtagande stimulansen bör driva euron tillbaka mot 1,10 under de kommande månaderna”, tillägger James.

ETF Securities förväntar sig inte ett ’taper tantrum’*, och i motsats till marknadens reaktion i USA under 2013 tror de att de europeiska aktiemarknaderna kommer att gynnas av återhämtningen i ekonomin.

”Centralbankerna kommer att behöva hitta en fin balansgång mellan farorna för inflation och lågkonjunktur. I USA tror vi att Fed kommer behöva bli mer hökaktig både i sin retorik och sina åtgärder senare under året. En stramare penningpolitik än vad marknaden förväntar sig kan leda till att den amerikanska dollarn återtar mark den har förlorat under det första halvåret vid årets slut”, säger James.

Svaghet

ETF Securities har isolerat de företag som är mest utsatta för räntehöjningar genom att titta på de med den största skuldbördan. Resultatet av detta är en mer försiktig inställning mot brittiska large cap-aktier och amerikanska småbolag.

Storbritannien har sett en betydande försämring i sin räntetäckningsgrad, vilket är ett mått på företags kapacitet att hantera sina utestående skulder, efter att ha fallit från 9x under 2012 till 3,4x idag. Allt under 1.5x indikerar ett ohälsosamt företag som kämpar för att hantera skulden. FTSE 100 har en lägre kvot än FTSE 250 och inom den ser fastighets- och resurssektorn särskilt utsatta ut.

”I USA har de mindre företagens ränteteckning skiljt sig från storföretagens. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) är den uppenbara gruppen av företag i S & P 500 som är känsliga för räntehöjningar, men olje- och gassektorn ser också svag ut, särskilt efter ett år av mycket låga oljepriser”, säger han.

Möjligheter

ETF Securities framhåller att obligationer kopplade till inflation är attraktiva i återhämtnings- och inflationsdrivande ekonomiska faser och har överträffat alla andra tillgångsslag under de senaste tio åren, vilket förväntas öka investerarnas aptit.

”Vi tror att den strukturella motvinden kommer fortsätta leda till nedåttryck på tillväxt och inflation under det kommande årtiondet och kommer således att ha en preferens för tillväxtmarknads-obligationer och high yield obligationer”, avslutar James.

ETF Securities andra Triannual Outlook för 2017 innehåller också:

  • Utsikter för platina: guld och ZAR förblir viktiga faktorer som påverkar priset
  • Metallutbudet kommer stramas åt: Flera utvecklingsländer tycks vara beredda att avstå från ekonomisk tillväxt från resursutvinning till förmån för miljön, vilket kan påverka 6% av det globala aluminiumutbudet och 8% av det globala nickelutbudet.
  • Begränsad respekt för överenskommelse bland OPEC-medlemmar: kartellen har endast kommit 83% på vägen mot överenskommelsen att skära ned till 1,2 miljoner fat, medan USA:s produktion håller nere priserna
  • Litium och energimetaller: hur efterfrågan på batterier till elbilar kommer att förändra aptiten för litium, kobolt, mangan och nickel

* ”Taper tantrum” är den term som används för att hänvisa till 2013 års uppsving i amerikanska statsobligationsräntor, vilket resulterade i Federal Reserves användning av åtstramning för att gradvis minska mängden pengar som då matades in i ekonomin

ETF Securities – Det intelligenta alternativet

ETF Securities Group är en av världens ledande innovatörer inom börshandlade produkter (ETPer) och erbjuder specialistinvesteringslösningar för investerare runt om i världen, vilket gör det möjligt för dem att på ett intelligent sätt bygga upp och diversifiera sina portföljer.

Vi är pionjärer och utvecklade exempelvis världens första börshandlade guldprodukt. Idag erbjuder vi ett av det mest innovativa sortimenten inom specialist-ETPer, vilket omfattar råvaror, valutor, aktier och räntor. Med denna pionjäranda, vår oöverträffade expertis och genom att arbeta med ledande partners, tar vi fram de mest intressanta investeringsmöjligheterna och gör dem tillgängliga för investerare som det intelligenta alternativet.

Om ETF Securities Tri-Annual Outlook

Vår tertiala analys Tri-Annual Outlook är en samling av korta artiklar som fokuserar på ämnen som vi tror står högt upp på agendan för investerare. Vi erbjuder vår expertis och insikt i valutor, aktier, råvaror och räntor som knyts ihop under vår globala makroekonomiska analys.

Om du vill veta mer om ETF Securities gå till: www.etfsecurities.com

För ytterligare information, vänligen kontakta pressavdelningen på:

T: +44 (0) 20 7448 4330

E: press@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ELF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only. Nothing in this communication amounts to, and nothing in this communication should be construed as, investment advice, an offer for sale or a solicitation or an offer to buy securities and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and/or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Can mining strikes offset currency headwinds?

Can mining strikes offset currency headwinds?

Platinum and the Rand: Can mining strikes offset currency headwinds?

Platinum prices have rebounded by over 20% during 2016, as the South African Rand (ZAR) has strengthened 4%. A stronger ZAR should constrain supply by narrowing already stretched mining company margins. Opposing forces are likely to keep price volatility elevated in coming months as a potentially weaker ZAR balances the threat of output cuts from strike action.

Economic conditions are challenging to say the least. South African growth is expected to be just 0.6% in 2016 according to the IMF, from 1.3% in 2015, the lowest in over six years. Rising social tensions are a result of burgeoning unemployment. Unemployment is at the highest level since records began in 2008, at nearly 27% of the population, according to Stats SA.

Drought is impacting food prices, driving inflation higher, and at the same time the central bank is raising rates to try and keep prices in check. Raising rates to offset supply side inflation and reduce capital outflows is a sign of desperation and the local currency is unlikely to be a beneficiary of such action. Indeed, the South African Reserve Bank notes that the weaker currency could be fuelling inflationary pressures.

As a general rule of thumb, investors should be wary of those EM countries that are tightening monetary policy to stave off capital flight, especially when there is little inflationary pressure and weak growth – South Africa is a good example. With lacklustre outlook for the economy, the Rand is likely to remain weak.

Early June sees the potential for a credit rating downgrade for South Africa from S&P Global Ratings, with consensus economist expectations that the country’s rating will enter junk territory by end-2016. The IMF’s most recent mission to the country suggests that the government’s budget target ‘may be challenging’. A decrease to non-investment grade is likely to prompt further capital outflows and see the ZAR move lower against the USD.

The close correlation between the currency and platinum should see metal prices follow ZAR lower in the near term. However, later in June, and with another supply deficit forecast in 2016, the platinum price is likely to receive support from potential output reductions resulting from contract negotiation activity and possible strike action[i].

(click to enlarge)

[i] Recent strike action in South Africa in 2012 and 2014 lifted the platinum price by 17% and 0.5%, respectively.

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.

 

Supply Squeeze to Prompt PGM Recovery

Supply Squeeze to Prompt PGM Recovery

ETFS Trade Idea –Commodities – Supply Squeeze to Prompt PGM Recovery

Summary

Platinum and palladium markets capitulate
Over the last year the prices of platinum group metals (PGMs) have seen a momentous decline. Since the 23rd June 2014, when strike action in South Africa concluded, platinum and palladium prices have fallen 34% and 27% respectively (Source: Bloomberg). Being both industrial and precious in nature, they have succumbed to pressure from a softer economic outlook for China, a stronger US Dollar and broadly negative sentiment towards commodities. At current levels, we believe that platinum and palladium prices are at or near a bottom and offer a good opportunity to gain long exposure for those investors with a medium term time horizon. The current low price environment means that a considerable portion of PGM mines are currently operating in unprofitable territory, which should ensure that supply remains tight going forward. On the demand side, the roll out of further European environmental legislation later in the year should see increased usage within autocatalysts.

Positioning diverges

Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and futures positioning have considerably diverged in the past month (see Figure 1). From June to July, ETF holdings of platinum and palladium have increased by 4.4% and 2.2% respectively while speculative futures positioning has turned increasingly bearish. ETF investors typically exhibit contrarian behaviour, with low prices often stimulating bargain hunting, and this appears to be at work within the PGM space. Indeed, at ETF Securities the last week saw the largest inflows into Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) providing long exposure to platinum and palladium in over seven months. ETP flows appear to corroborate our view that prices are near lows and provide an attractive entry point for those that are bullish on PGMs in the medium term.

(Click to enlarge)

Supply shortages to come

South Africa is responsible for an estimated 73% and 40% of global platinum and palladium production respectively (Source: Johnson Matthey). Last year’s labour dispute was the longest in South African history and resulted in an increase in labour costs for PGM miners that were already suffering from low margins as a result of depressed market prices. Put into perspective, according to the Thomson Reuters GFMS Platinum and Palladium 2015 Survey, the average total cash cost1 for South African platinum producers was US$1,272/oz in 2014 (see Figure 2), which exceeds the current platinum price of around US$955/oz. Although producers are finding some respite in a depreciating South African Rand (ZAR), many are currently operating at a loss. Two of the dominant platinum miners in the region, Anglo American Platinum (Amplat) and Lonmin, have recently announced plans to close mine shafts and initiate large job cuts in response to falling prices, actions which in the future are likely to result in supply shortages and should, once sentiment abates, spark a recovery in PGM prices.

(Click to enlarge)

Legislation to generate European demand

Euro VI legislation is targeted at reducing the levels of exhaust emissions from vehicles on the road, specifically it is aimed at reducing the level of nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide and an array of hydrocarbons in the atmosphere. It will primarily affect producers of new diesel cars as they will have to adhere to much more stringent emission limits. As such, from September 2015 (when legislation is due to be implemented), European autocatalyst demand for PGMs should grow and in turn support platinum and palladium price levels. This factor will be particularly important for platinum as approximately 42% of autocatalyst demand is sourced from Europe versus around only 24% for palladium (Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS).

Note: Total cash cost does not include: sustaining capex, indirect costs, corporate overheads, extraordinary costs or depreciation and amortization.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

ETFS Platinum (PLTM)
ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT)
ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD)
ETFS Daily Leveraged Platinum (LPLA)
ETFS Daily Short Platinum (SPLA)
Swiss Franc Daily Hedged Platinum (CPLT)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

When being made within Switzerland, this communication is for the exclusive use by ”Qualified Investors” (within the meaning of Article 10 of Section 3 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (”CISA”)) and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.

This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.