Etikett: CFTC

Så upptäcker Du en forex scam

Så upptäcker Du en forex scamSå upptäcker Du en forex scam

Den internationella valutamarknaden omsätter mer 1,65 biljoner dollar per dag enligt Bank of International Settlements ’Triennial Survey. Kombinera det med valutaoptioner och terminkontrakt, och det belopp som handlas på en dag uppgår till mer än 5 miljarder dollar. Med denna volym pengar som flyter runt en oreglerad spotmarknad som handlas över disk, utan ansvarsskyldighet, erbjuder forexbedrägerier bedragare en möjlighet att tjäna pengar under begränsade perioder av tid. Medan många av de populära gamla bedrägerierna har upphört, på grund av allvarliga verkställighetsåtgärder från Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) och 1982 års bildande av den självreglerade National Futures Association (NFA), fortsätter vissa gamla bedrägerier fortfarande och nya fortsätt poppar upp. Så upptäcker Du en forex scam

Point-Spread Scam

Den gamla forexbedrägeriet baserades på dataprofilering av bid/ask spread. Skillnaden mellan utbud och efterfrågan återspeglar i grunden att en fram och tillbaka transaktion behandlas genom en mäklare. Dessa spread skiljer sig vanligen mellan valutapar. Svindeln uppstår när dessa spreadar skiljer sig mycket mellan olika mäklare. Mäklare erbjuder ofta inte den normala två- till trepunktsspridningen i EUR/USD, till exempel, utan spreadar med sju pips eller mer. (En pip är den minsta prisrörelsen som en given växelkurs gör baserad på marknadskonvention. Eftersom de flesta större valutapar är prissatta till fyra decimaler, är den minsta förändringen den sista decimaltalpunkten.) Faktorn fyra eller flera pips på varje $ 1 miljoner handel, och eventuella vinster som uppstår till följd av en bra investering äts bort av provisioner.

Denna bluff har tystnat under de senaste 10 åren, men var försiktig med eventuella offshore-mäklare som inte regleras av CFTC, NFA eller deras ursprungsland. Dessa tendenser finns fortfarande, och det är ganska lätt för företagen att packa ihop och försvinna med pengarna när de konfronteras med sina handlingar. Många såg en fängelsecell för dessa datormanipulationer. Men majoriteten av kränkare har historiskt varit USA-baserade företag, inte de offshore baserade företag.

Signal-Seller Scam

En populär modern scam är signalförsäljningen. Signalsäljare är detaljhandelsföretag, sammanslagna kapitalförvaltare, eller enskilda traders som erbjuder ett system – för en daglig, veckovis eller månadsavgift. De hävdar att de har identifierar gynnsamma tider för att köpa eller sälja ett valutapar baserat på professionella rekommendationer som kommer att göra någon rik. De hänvisar till sin långa erfarenhet och handelsförmåga, plus testimonials från människor som hävdar att denna person har tjänat stora pengar åt dem.

De intet ont anande investerarna överlämnar X mängd dollar för privilegiet av att erhålla handelsrekommendationer. Många av dessa scammers samlar bara pengar från ett visst antal handlare och försvinner. Vissa kommer att rekommendera en bra trade då och då för att låta signalpengarna fortsätta. Denna nya bluff blir långsamt ett bredare problem. Även om det finns signalförsäljare som är ärliga och utför handelsfunktioner som avsedda, lönar sig det att vara skeptisk.

”Robot” Scamming i dagens marknad

En ihållande bluff, gammal och ny, presenterar sig i vissa typer av forexutvecklade handelssystem. Dessa scammers framhåller det egna systemets förmåga att generera automatiska affärer som, även när du sover, skapar stor rikedom. Idag är den nya terminologin ”robot” på grund av förmågan att arbeta automatiskt. Hur som helst har många av dessa system inte lämnats in för formell granskning och testats av en oberoende källa.

Undersökningsfaktorer måste innehålla testning av handelssystemets parametrar och optimeringskoder. Om parametrarna och optimeringskoderna är ogiltiga kommer systemet att generera slumpmässiga köp- och säljssignaler. Detta kommer att orsaka intet ont anande handlare att göra ingenting annat än att spela. Även om testade system finns på marknaden, bör potentiella valutahandlare undersöka vilket system de tänker integrera i sin handelsstrategi.

Andra faktorer att överväga

Traditionellt har många handelssystem varit ganska kostsamma. Bara några få år sedan var det inte ovanligt att behöva betala 5000 dollar för ett system. Detta kan ses som en bluff i sig. Ingen näringsidkare borde betala mer än några hundra dollar för ett ordentligt system idag. Var särskilt försiktig med systemförsäljare som erbjuder program till orimliga priser motiverat av en garanti för fenomenala resultat. Leta efter en av de många legitima säljare som är anständiga och vars system har testats korrekt för att potentiellt kunna tjäna betydande inkomster.

Ett annat uthålligt problem är att fonderna samlas. Utan segregerade konton kan enskilda investerare inte spåra den exakta utvecklingen av sina investeringar. Det gör det lättare för bedragarna att använda en investerares pengar för att betala orimliga löner. köpa hus, bilar och plan eller bara försvinna med kapitalet. Avsnitt 4D i Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 behandlade frågan om fondssegregation; vad som händer i andra nationer är en separat fråga.

Varningsskyltar

Andra bedrägerier och varningsskyltar finns när mäklare inte tillåter uttag av pengar från investerarkonton eller när problem finns inom handelsstationen. Kan du gå in eller lämna handel under ett ekonomiskt meddelande som inte överensstämmer med förväntningarna? Om du inte kan ta ut pengar, ska varningsskyltarna blinka rött. Om handelsplatsen inte fungerar enligt dina likviditetsförväntningar, bör varningsskyltarna blinka igen. En viktig faktor att alltid överväga när man väljer en mäklare eller ett handelssystem för att tillgodose dina personliga mål är att vara skeptisk till löften eller reklammaterial som garanterar hög prestanda.

Av de 193 ärenden som anmäldes till NFA under 2008 för regler och lagöverträdelser, reglerades 166 inom nio månader, men endast 23% av kärandena fick tillbaka sina förlorade pengar. Därför, som med många Ponzi-arrangemang, även när de som medvetet engagerar sig i forexbedrägerier ställs inför rätta, är det ingen garanti att investerare kommer att ersättas i en forex scam.

Genomför en due diligence på den Forex Broker du överväger att använda genom att samla in Bakgrundsrelaterade statusinformation Center (BASIC), skapad av NFA. Många förändringar har drivit ut skurkarna och de gamla bedrägerierna och legitimerade systemet för de många bra företagen. Men var alltid försiktig med nya sätt att presentera en forex scam; Frestelsen och lockelsen av enorma vinster kommer alltid att dra till sig nya och mer sofistikerade typer till denna marknad.

Is VIX the next market blunder?

Is VIX the next market blunder?

ETF Securities Equity Research: Is VIX the next market blunder?

Highlights

  • The VIX index is currently demonstrating a complete absence of fear. In the context of current world affairs and political instability, we believe this is demonstrating a worrying complacency amongst investors.
  • Shorting the VIX is a dangerously crowded trade. The risk of market dislocation increases as interest rates rise.
  • The VIX and equity valuations are unusually closely correlated, implying that investors are buying equities due to their low volatility, and are comfortable with high valuations as a result. As we believe the VIX is likely understating risk, this puts equity investors in a vulnerable position.

Changing course after failure

The VIX index, coined as the fear index, is currently demonstrating a complete absence of fear. Except for the occasional spike upwards this year it has been exceptionally low. The average level of VIX for this year sits in the lowest 5% in history (since 1991) with the current level being in the lowest 1%. Furthermore, the low of 9.75 this year was the 5th lowest in history, a level last achieved in late 1993. In the context of current world affairs and political instability, we believe this is demonstrating a worrying level of complacency amongst investors.

Recent spikes in the VIX highlight how this complacency can leave investors going short the VIX index vulnerable. The spike on 17th May is a good example. The VIX rose 46% from 10.6 to 15.6 overnight on the back of revelations that Donald Trump asked ex FBI Director James Comey to drop the FBI investigation into Russian involvement in the US Presidential elections.

From a superficial perspective, the low VIX suggests investors’ perception of future volatility is sanguine. We believe the VIX is understating risk. Our model of the VIX, which uses a combination of the Global Financial Stress Index (GFSI) and the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (detailed in VIX & Tax promises lulling equity investors into a false sense of security) highlights a widening deviation between our model results of the VIX and the actual VIX index. Our model suggests the VIX should be closer to 15, not its current level of 10.6. Thus, our model indicates that market perception of risk should be much higher. Perversely, we believe this disparity has been partly due to unstable macro events. A broad rise in the S&P500 is masking unusually low correlation between market sectors and individual stocks. This does not fully explain why the VIX has been deviating from our model, as this is a more recent phenomenon.

Since 2013 a worrying trend has arisen amongst a group of investors who are shorting the VIX. The subdued level of the VIX has likely been driven by investors, on the hunt for yield, motivated by years of loose monetary policy. The steep term structure gives these investors who are short the VIX a yield.

According to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), investors are holding record short positions – over 3x standard deviation from its historical range relative to long positions – suggesting shorting the VIX is an increasingly crowded trade.

We question how long this can last given the VIX is so low. We also remain concerned that an unwind of this trade will hurt, potentially prompting a VIX short squeeze and the resultant higher volatility prompting a risk asset sell-off. Timing a potential shift in sentiment is difficult although shorting the VIX will become increasingly less attractive every time the US Federal Reserve (FED) increases interest rates. The short VIX yield will therefore look increasingly less attractive as yields in other assets increase with rising interest rates. Conversely, an unexpected sharp move in equities or a significant political event could also precipitate an unwind in short VIX positioning.

On the other side of this trade are investors who see record lows in the VIX as an opportunity to buy long positions, fearing that volatility may rise. As illustrated by the shares outstanding from a selection of ETFs, short VIX ETF shares have been falling recently while long VIX ETF shares have risen sharply. This trend emerged not long after the first FED rate hike in December 2015.

The challenge in owning long VIX products is their ability to track the index. As the term structure is steep, it means as the products switch from one contract to the next, there is a cost incurred, meaning over time there is an increasing decay in relative performance.
The low measures of the VIX does have implications for the equity market. Historically there has been a poor relationship between the VIX and price/earnings (PE) valuations in the US, with a regression between of the two demonstrating an R-squared of 0.1 since 1990. However, over the last 2 years the R-squared his risen sharply to 0.58, suggesting a much closer correlation between the VIX and PEs.

The worrying aspect in the relationship is that the further the VIX falls, the higher valuations are, implying that investors are buying equities due to their low volatility, and are happy paying higher valuations to do so. As we believe the VIX is likely understating risk, this puts equity investors in a vulnerable position.

In short, we believe equity investors are becoming too complacent, valuations are high at a time when margins are likely to be squeezed further, whilst many promised corporate tax cuts may not come to fruition this year. Furthermore, we believe the VIX is lulling some investors into a false sense of security when holding equities. These factors leave equity markets vulnerable to a sell-off in the event of further interest rate rises and continued lack of clarity from the US political administration.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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Trump fade represents a commodities buying opportunity

Trump fade represents a commodities buying opportunity

The political worries in the US, with President Trump looking increasingly isolated, and broad tightening of monetary conditions in China has been detrimental to commodity prices, leading to a significant unwinding of exceptionally high speculative positioning. Trump fade represents a commodities buying opportunity CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) positioning data had highlighted commodities reaching a peak bullishness sentiment end-February 2017, as expressed in our February blog. Since then, due to the aforementioned issues, this bullish sentiment has unwound considerably, remaining just above it’s long-term average balance between bull and bears. Commodity speculators became very bullish after the Republican win in November with the promise of a US$1tr spend in infrastructure over the next 10 years. Recent press reports highlight that this spend is likely to include US$200bn from Federal Funds with the remaining being investment incentives for US$800bn from the private sector and local governments. It is becoming evident from press reports that the US$200bn will likely begin to be delivered in late 2018, whilst the additional US$800bn is very much uncertain due to it being at the discretion of the private sector and local governments. As investors have begun to realise that much of this spending will be delayed and potentially at much lower levels, it has contributed to this speculative unwind. Another contributor to the deteriorating sentiment has been tightening policy and weakening economic growth in China. Although we see evidence of stabilising growth in China, in recent years official growth data appears smoothed to some extent, our growth proxy, using freight volumes, electricity output, traffic volumes and retail sales suggest that growth in recent years has probably been overstated, although it looks to be improving despite the recent tightening of policy. The “Belt and Road” strategy recently announced by President Xi Jinping suggests a continued commitment to its US$150bn spend on infrastructure. More broadly in Emerging Markets (EM), in contrast to China, we are seeing Libor rates gradually decline as inflation eases, helping boost economic growth. The Emerging Market LEI (Leading Economic Indicator) leads commodity prices by 6 months with a high historic correlation, rises in the LEI imply that the recent commodity price weakness is temporary. We continue to believe that the fundamentals of increasing supply-side destruction, attractive valuations and buoyant demand for commodities remain intact. The Trump debacles have prompted a much needed speculative unwind, and in our view, recent price weakness represent a buying opportunity. We continue to see industrial metals as offering the best upside in the coming 12 months.

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments. James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.

Peak Bullishness in Commodities

Peak Bullishness in Commodities

Peak Bullishness in Commodities. Sentiment in broad commodities certainly has recovered over the last year having risen 20% from their lows in early 2016. It now looks like sentiment has moved from peak bearishness to peak bullishness. It implies that we could see a short-term setback in commodities as markets cool-off, although we believe the fundamentals remain attractive for the longer-term.

We use the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data to measure the net sum of all non-commercial long and short positions in an effort to understand current sentiment: how bullish or bearish investors currently are. Since the data begun in 1995 there has been a close correlation between movements in this CFTC data and prices. In early 2016 we witnessed what looked like the lowest sentiment since 2002 after continued worries over Chinese growth and the threat of interest rate rises. This coincided with the lowest prices since 2002.

CFTC positioning is high in many commodities, and it does look like we have reached peak bullishness in 2017. If you look across the commodities spectrum you can see that much of this stratospheric rise has been due initially to gold, silver, copper and now predominantly crude oil where speculative positioning is very close to 3X standard deviations above its long-term average, an extreme level.

Industrial metals are where we have seen the smallest rise in speculative positioning and where valuations are the most attractive. China consumes close to 55% of industrial metals globally at present so economic growth is very important for industrial metals outlook. We have created our own proxy for growth in China that incorporates bank loan growth, rail freight volumes, electricity production, retail sales, air travel and internet usage.

It implies that Chinese GDP growth is well below the official figures but crucially that growth is stabilising. Coinciding with this improvement in growth, we have seen a sharp rise in industrial metals consumption.

In a broader context for commodities, given that prices are generally below the marginal cost of production, global growth continues to improve and we are seeing the early signs of supply side destruction, the fundamentals remain intact. It just maybe worth waiting for speculative positioning to cool down a little bit.

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments.

James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.

How low could the gold price go?

How low could the gold price go?

With the prospect of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) now hiking 3 times in 2017 it is likely that in the shorter-term there is further price weakness for gold, but how low could it go and what could influence the price? How low could the gold price go?

There is a very close relationship between the gold price and the US dollar. If the dollar rises, gold historically falls, as has been the case during Q4 2016 as expectations for a rate hike have become more aligned amongst investors. Consequently, the US dollar has risen 7.5% since and gold has sold off by 13.5%.

(click to enlarge)

Looking at CFTC futures positioning, which is indicative of investor sentiment, it highlights that investors are not yet at peak bullishness for the US dollar nor are they at peak bearishness for gold that was witnessed at the end of 2015, just after the Fed’s first rate hike. If we assume similar levels of sentiment for both the US dollar and gold then it suggests that gold could fall by 19% by year-end, bringing the gold price close to US$1070.

Whilst the pressure on the gold price will be predominantly negative in the coming months we continue to believe there are sizeable risks for 2017 that are likely to support the gold price.

  • 82% of headline inflation moves in the US can be explained by moves in the oil price over the last 4 years, the recent rise of crude prices imply the year-end inflation could be close to 3%. This is a double-edged sword for gold, in the shorter term it may push up the prospects for more aggressive rate hikes weighing on gold, but the FED can’t be too aggressive on rates as the US economic recovery could be derailed and government debt remains high. An ineffective Fed would be supportive for gold in the longer-term.

(click to enlarge)

  • The rapid 5% rise in the USD clearly hurt those companies with greater foreign revenue exposure in Q4 2015. US companies where foreign revenues are significant (greater than 40%), year on year revenues declined 11% versus only 5% for the S&P500 as a whole in Q4 2015. This time around the US dollar has rallied 7.5% over Q4, threatening to damage company earnings during the next reporting season and in turn weigh on prices when optimism in the equity markets remain high.
  • 70% of Europe (by GDP) has elections in 2017 if Italy is included, and with populists either gaining or leading in the polling, political instability is likely to be high.
  • Markets are giving the President Elect the benefit of the doubt on his tax cutting and infrastructure spend promises, but what success will the President Elect have in negotiating a higher debt ceiling? We believe that the net effect of tax cuts is likely to be neutral whilst being disruptive for US corporates as their implementation will have such a varied impact.

These issues that may take a while for the markets to quantify, and may only begin to be priced in the second half of 2017. We believe the continued weakness in the gold price will present attractive entry points in the coming 6 months.

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments.

James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.