Under våren 2017 kom president Trump och hans rådgivare med idén om att den amerikanska staten skulle ge ut femtioåriga och hundraåriga obligationer. Dessa skulle komplettera den mest kända amerikanska obligationen, den trettioåriga. Tanken med förslaget var att den amerikanska staten skulle kunna dra fördel av dagens låga räntor och kunna säkerställa låga finansieringskostnader för lång tid framöver. Vi ser emellertid att flera av de stora spelarna på Wall Street förkastar hundraåriga obligationer. Det är till exempel institutioner som Black Rock, Vanguard, Brevan Howard med flera som säger argumenterar att det stora pensionsfonderna och försäkringsbolagen som förmodas köpa hundraåriga obligationer inte kommer vara intresserade. Vi tittar på dessa argument, men vi ser också närmare på vad andra länder gjort i fråga om att emittera långsiktiga obligationer.
Låga räntor och obligationer med lång löptid
När räntorna i USA börjar krypa upp efter ett decennium på rekordlåga nivåer, ser vissa i Trump-administrationen ut att följa vilja Europas ledning. De vill helt enkelt låsa dessa låga räntor under en längre tid genom obligationer med löptider så långa som 100 år. En sådan obligation skulle låta regeringen effektivt låna till dagens historiskt låga räntor och låsa in finansieringskostnadern oavsett hur de förändras under nästa århundrade.
USA skulle inte vara den första nationen att utfärda sådana långfristiga obligationer. Mexikoutfärdade ett hundraårigt obligationslån år 2010 och ett antal europeiska länder gjorde också det senaste året för att låsa räntorna på nivåer nära noll procent. Ett antal europeiska länder Österrike, Frankrike, Spanien, Schweiz och Italien sålde förra året obligationer som förföller minst femtio år framåt. Irlandoch Belgien uppgav 2016 att de överväger att emittera 100-åriga obligationer. Bank of Japan ansåg också att landet skulle utfärda ett 50-årigt obligationslån.
Wall Street osäkert på om Amerika borde följa efter
Medan det inte finns ett prejudikat för att låsa i låga räntor med med hjälp av ultralångfristiga statsobligationer, trycker några Wall Street-institutioner tillbaka. Wall Street Journal skriver att en kommitté av rådgivare från Wall Street häller kallt vatten på statssekreterare Steven Mnuchin förslag för att utfärda 50-åriga och 100-åriga amerikanska statsobligationer. De hävdar att de stora pensionsfonderna och försäkringsgivarna som till exempel Black Rock, Vanguard, Brevan Howard och ICAP inte kommer att visa något större intresse.
Den trettioåriga obligationsavkastningen över tiden
Pensions- och livförsäkringsbolag har vanligtvis långa tidshorisonter, och de är sannolika köpare av sådana obligationer. För närvarande är de längsta löptidsobligationer som utgivits av den amerikanska regeringen 30 år, och det har inte längre varit mycket efterfrågan på längre tid. De flesta försäkringsgivare föredrar faktiskt att köpa 20-åriga obligationer. Andra har hävdat att efterfrågan på 50-års + obligationer oavsiktligt skulle kunna leda till en minskning av efterfrågan på de avgörande 30-åriga obligationerna, vilket medför likviditetsproblem. Faktum är att risken är att likviditeten för båda löptiderna skulle vara för låg för att göra dem värdefulla på lång sikt.
Detta gäller särskilt portföljförvaltare som inte håller obligationer till förfall. Dessa portföljförvaltare handlar snarare genom att köpa lågt och sälja högt på marknaden. Dessutom har mycket långsiktiga obligationer en hög duration, vilket innebär att deras priser är mycket känsliga för ränteförändringar. En liten förändring i den långsiktiga räntan kan orsaka stora förluster. Slutligen är några analytiker oroliga att eftersom FED kommer att minska balansräkning så kommer det att bli ännu mindre efterfrågan på långfristiga obligationer på marknaden än det som har skett under senare tid.
Det har förekommit långa obligationer men…
Under Eisenhower-administrationen utfärdades en serie 40-åriga obligationer, och tillbaka när panamakanalen byggdes användes en 50-årig obligation för att finansiera den. Treasury Dept har länge ansåg att det är viktigare att upprätthålla en stadig ström av efterfrågan på den 30-åriga statsobligationen än att ta i tu med sporadiska långsiktiga problem för att få pengar för regeringens behov i en hundraårig obligation.
VanEck Joe Foster Gold Reacts to Fed Hawks in June
Gold continued its range-bound trading pattern, fluctuating between $1,200 and $1,300 per ounce since January. In June the price fell $27.39 (-2.16%) to end the month at $1,241.55. On June 14, the Fed raised rates for the fourth time in this rate hiking cycle. A common pattern emerged for the first three rate hikes with gold price weakness ahead of the hikes, followed by a rally to higher prices immediately after each hike. This pattern then changed, as gold reached its high for the year ($1,298 per ounce) on June 7 before the hike and subsequently trended lower for the rest of the month. Gold came under pressure as hawkish statements by the Fed following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting raised the odds of a fifth rate increase later in 2017.
The U.S. dollar gained strength temporarily following the FOMC meeting, but ended June with a 1.4% loss, as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY),1 which fell to nine month lows. The weakness was caused by comments from top officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE), which the markets interpreted as suggesting that some removal of monetary accommodation could be warranted soon. Also weighing on the U.S. dollar was the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrade of its 2018 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2.1% from 2.5%. The global economy appears to be set to outpace the U.S. economy over the coming year.
Gold Hurt by Intense Selling Pressure, and Possible Manipulation
The June performance of gold was disappointing given the weakness in the U.S. dollar. Gold normally has an inverse correlation2 with the dollar. However gold came under intense selling pressure that looks suspiciously like someone was set on manipulating the market lower. On June 26 before European markets opened at 4:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time, the futures market was hit with a 1.8 million ounce sell order that drove the price down $18 in an instant. The selling came during off hours when liquidity was light and it pushed the price below the technically important $1,250 per ounce level.
Further selling pressure on the day before the Fourth of July holiday in the U.S. had gold looking to test the $1,200 level. We have not seen this type of (presumably) manipulated selling pressure since the bear market period from 2013 to 2015. We assume this activity originates with banks or hedge funds attempting to generate a profit, or with a government attempting to dampen competition with the U.S. dollar. We will never know the source, or whether it is part of a broader conspiracy, so we do not waste further time considering the possibilities. In the longer term, the market is too broad and deep to be manipulated successfully.
Mixed Results for Gold Equities
Gold stocks were mixed in June. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)3 followed gold lower with a loss of 2.87%, whereas the MVIS™ Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)4 posted a gain of 5.59%. The junior miners are showing some mean reversion after being oversold ahead of a major Index rebalance that occurred on June 16.
Waiting for a Strong Catalyst to Propel Gold off its Base
Since the bear market ended in December 2015, the price of gold and gold shares has been forming a base. We have yet to see a strong catalyst, however. Thus far in 2017, U.S. dollar weakness and a general nervousness on many geopolitical fronts have provided solid support for gold as a currency alternative and hedge against risks. Gold ended the first half with a modest gain of 7.75%. Gold stock indices underperformed gold as GDMNTR gained 5.29% and MVGDXJTR rose 3.47%. We normally expect gold stocks to outperform gold in a rising market. The underperformance of the indices this year is likely due to:
1. Mean reversion after stellar outperformance in 2016;
2. Heavy net redemptions in the gold mining ETFs;
3. Inability of stock indices to engage in fundamental stock selection.
Support Exists for Current Price Levels
The market is now in the midst of the summer doldrums, a time when physical demand is at its lowest, trading volumes can be light, and, as we saw in late June and early July, the bears come out to play. The gold price is testing the $1,200 per ounce level for the third time this year. If $1,200 fails, then it will go on to test the $1,175 base of the uptrend that has developed over the past 18 months. Successfully holding above these price levels would be very positive technically and psychologically for the market. Fundamentally, we believe the market is well supported around current levels because:
1. Physical demand in India and China continues to improve, even though the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has yet to buy gold in 2017. We believe the PBOC is on pause this year due to foreign exchange and debt issues in China;
2. Geopolitics in the Middle East and Korea—along with uncertainty surrounding the U.S. political climate and policy—has created a pervasive nervousness globally that benefits gold;
3. The U.S. dollar appears to be in decline. While it did not help gold in June, we expect the historically negative correlation to benefit gold in the longer term;
4. Positioning in the futures market suggests there could be more buying ahead.
To Gold’s Benefit, This Fed Rate Hiking Cycle is Likely to End in Tears
We continue to be positive on the gold price in the longer term. Based on what we see and hear every day, all of us can imagine possible black swan5 events that might propel gold much higher. When we look at the economic cycle in the U.S., we find a more compelling investment case. Our March commentary highlighted many signs of a late cycle economy. In our May commentary, we published an ominous looking chart of NYSE margin debt. Complacency is at high levels typically seen at market tops. Investors continue to pour money into ETFs, driving stock market indices to new highs, while volatility as measured by the VIX Index6 is at historic lows. Most Fed rate hiking cycles end in tears. Will this one be any different?
Gold Remains a Solid Money Alternative Given Financial Risks
Gold would likely benefit from dollar weakness if the Fed is unable to raise rates later this year. In the longer term, when the economy and markets eventually see a downturn, the risks to the financial system will probably be substantial. Historically, excessive leverage is the core cause of financial upheaval. Student loans, automotive loans, and credit card debt are each over $1 trillion now. The ”elephant in the debt room” remains sovereign debt levels that exploded higher after the last financial crisis and has been growing ever since. A shrinking economy magnifies debt problems and, with interest rates still far below normal, would likely see the Fed again resort to quantitative easing and maybe more extreme intervention, such as debt monetization. Gold as a sound money alternative can act as a hedge against such risks.
With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.
Important Information
1 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) indicates the general international value of the U.S. dollar. The DXY does this by averaging the exchange rates between the U.S. dollar and six major world currencies: Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish kroner, and Swiss franc.
2 The correlation coefficient is a measure that determines the degree to which two variables’ movements are associated and will vary from -1.0 to 1.0. -1.0 indicates perfect negative correlation, and 1.0 indicates perfect positive correlation.
3 NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.
4 MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
5 Black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict.
6 VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options.
Important Disclosures
This commentary originates from VanEck Investments Limited (“VanEck”) and does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security.
VanEck’s opinions stated in this commentary may deviate from opinions presented by other VanEck departments or companies. Information and opinions in this commentary are based on VanEck’s analysis. Any forecasts and projections contained in the commentary appear from the named sources. All opinions in this commentary are, regardless of source, given in good faith, and may only be valid as of the stated date of this commentary and are subject to change without notice in subsequent versions of the commentary. Any projections, market outlooks or estimates in this material are forward-looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions that are solely the opinion of VanEck. Any projections, outlooks or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur.
No investment advice
The commentary is intended only to provide general and preliminary information to investors and shall not be construed as the basis for any investment decision. This commentary has been prepared by VanEck as general information for private use of investors to whom the commentary has been distributed, but it is not intended as a personal recommendation of particular financial instruments or strategies and thus it does not provide individually tailored investment advice, and does not take into account the individual investor’s financial situation, existing holdings or liabilities, investment knowledge and experience, investment objective and horizon or risk profile and preferences. The investor must particularly ensure the suitability of an investment as regards his/her financial and fiscal situation and investment objectives. The investor bears the risk of losses in connection with an investment.
Before acting on any information in this publication or report, it is recommendable to consult one’s financial advisor.
Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and the information contained in this material is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as investment, tax or legal advice, any recommendation, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy, an interest in any security. References to specific securities and their issuers or sectors are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities or gain exposure to such sectors.
Each investor shall make his/her own appraisal of the tax and other financial merits of his/her investment.
Sources
This commentary may be based on or contain information, such as opinions, recommendations, estimates, price targets and valuations which emanate from: VanEck portfolio managers, analysts or representatives, publicly available information, information from other units or Companies of VanEck, or other named sources.
To the extent this commentary is based on or contain information emerging from other sources (“Other Sources”) than VanEck (“External Information”), VanEck has deemed the Other Sources to be reliable but neither the VanEck companies, others associated or affiliated with said companies nor any other person, do guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the External Information.
Limitation of liability
VanEck and its associated and affiliated companies assume no liability as regards to any investment, divestment or retention decision taken by the investor on the basis of this commentary. In no event will VanEck or other associated and affiliated companies be liable for direct, indirect or incidental, special or consequential damages resulting from the information in this publication or report.
Risk information
The risk of investing in certain financial instruments, is generally high, as their market value is exposed to a lot of different factors such as the operational and financial conditions of the relevant company, growth prospects, change in interest rates, the economic and political environment, foreign exchange rates, shifts in market sentiments etc. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. When investing in individual shares, the investor may lose all or part of the investments.
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Gold to benefit from a more dovish Fed
Gold, platinum and silver ETPs to benefit further from a more dovish Fed.
Industrial metals ETPs saw US$31.5mn of inflows amid growing economic activity in the US and Europe and a potential surge in global infrastructure spending.
Inflows into oil ETPs returned after a one-week break as US oil inventories decline further.
Outflows from long EUR ETPs on high futures positioning and long USD ETPs on Yellen’s testimony.
Gold, platinum and silverETPs to benefit further from a more dovish Fed. Last week saw US$82mn inflows in precious metals ETPs, led by gold (US$46.8mn), then silver (US$23.9mn), platinum (US$6.8mn) and the basket (US$4.1mn). Janet Yellen’s comments last week on inflation cast some doubts among investors on whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue hiking rates by another quarter point this year. US headline inflation for June fell by 0.1% while core inflation came as unchanged at 1.7%. The gold price, as a result, rose by 1.2% over the past week. We however remain cautious and see a small 2.3% increase in the gold price for year-end. The price of gold is also a key driver of silver and platinum prices. With no evidence of industrial demand recovery, we believe both industrial precious metals will continue to benefit from the demand for safe haven assets. We believe silver still has upside potential by year-end while we see palladium near the top of its potential.
Industrial metals ETPs saw another week of inflows as manufacturing PMI continues to grow in the US and in the Eurozone. Last week saw US$31.5mn in industrial metals amid growing economic activity in the US and Eurozone with manufacturing PMI at 57.8 in the US and 57.4 in Europe in June. Investors favoured exposure to the basket for its diversification benefit (US$24.1mn). While the Chinese market deficit of industrial metals has reduced by 17% compared to its level in April 2016 according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, we believe infrastructure spending in China and India needs to respectively double and triple in order maintain current GDP growth rate which should be price supportive for the entire complex.
Inflows into oil ETPs returned after a week break as oil inventories in the US decline further. Oil ETPs recorded US$12.9mn inflows last week on the back of falling oil inventories in the US by 7.5mn barrels. US oil production, on the other hand, rose for the second consecutive week and is only 2.3% below to its peak in June 2015. OPEC’s latest release also reported an increase in oil production, threatening the OPEC and non-OPEC agreement as some producers look to have opened the tap again. Compliance to the agreement dropped to 78% according to the IEA.
The Euro and US dollar hit by a shift in investors sentiment. Long EUR ETPs recorded US$8.6mn of outflows last week and short EUR ETPs US$3.3mn inflows. In the face of weak inflation pressure and futures market positioning at the highest level in over six years, we believe there are downside risks for the Euro. In addition, we expect the European Central Bank to remain cautious on the extent of the discussion over tapering at this week’s policy meeting.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Important Information
General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.
This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Risk Warnings
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
Precis som finansmarknaderna väntat. FED höjde räntan, precis som väntat vid sitt senaste möte. Det betyder att den andra räntehöjningen för 2017 kom att ske i onsdags. I ett uttalande som publicerades efter mötet sades att Federal Open Market Committee sedan mötet i maj anser att data tyder på att arbetsmarknaden har fortsatt att stärkas och att den ekonomiska aktiviteten har stigit måttligt hittills i år
Med tanke på realiserade och förväntade arbetsmarknadsförhållanden och inflation, beslutade kommittén att höja målområdet för federala medel till 1 till 1-1/4 procent. Ståndpunkten för penningpolitiken är fortsatt tillmötesgående och därigenom stöds ytterligare stärkta arbetsmarknadsförhållanden och en fortsatt avkastning till 2 procent inflation. För de flesta hypotekslåntagare så innebär en räntehöjning med en kvarts procentenhet en mycket försumbar inverkan.
De fasta räntorna är knutna till den tioåriga statsobligationen
De fasta bostadsräntorna är knutna till den tioåriga statsobligationen och dess ränta. Många långivare har väntat på höjningen av räntan i flera månader, varför räntehöjningen redan är diskonterad och inbakad i dessa priser.
För de konsumenter som har lån med justerbar ränta är det nog en bra idé att överväga refinansiering och låsning i låg takt innan FED höjer räntorna igen. Konsumenter som har stora kreditkortsskulder kommer sannolikt att få se en ökad räntekostnad inom de närmaste månaderna.
Enligt FED har sysselsättningsvinsterna minskat men har varit i stort sett varit stabila sedan årets början och arbetslösheten har minskat.
Hushållens utgifter har ökat
Hushållens utgifter har ökat de senaste månaderna, och företagsinvesteringarna i USA har fortsatt att expandera. Under den senaste tolvmånadersperioden har inflationen minskat, exklusive livsmedels- och energipriser har de legat strax under två procent enligt FED.
Vid fastställandet av tidsplanen och storleken på framtida anpassningar av målinriktningen för federala medelräntor ska kommittén utvärdera realiserade och förväntade ekonomiska förhållanden i förhållande till målen för maximal sysselsättning och 2 procent inflation.
Donald Trumps första 100 dagar har påverkat börsen då det visat sig vara ett riktigt politiskt äventyr. Det har emellertid tagit bort fokus från en del av de konsekventa ekonomiska data som vi investerare nu har att förvänta oss. Från sysselsättning och bostäder till tillverkning och priser är den ekonomiska databilden en av en stark arbetsmarknad, stigande värden på bostäder, solida industriella siffror och låg inflation.
Den stadiga återhämtningen från nedgången under lågkonjunkturen 2008/2009 har gjort att vi åter närmar oss NAIRU-gränsen, icke-accelererande inflationstakt för arbetslösheten. I USA såg vi att arbetslöshet sänktes under februari, när 235 000 nya arbetstillfällen tillkom. De genomsnittliga timlönerna steg med 0,2 procent under februari och 2,8 procent under året, sedan Trumps första 100 dagar började.
En viktig indikator för FED
Detta är en allt viktigare indikator för att övervaka eftersom Feds sökande efter inflationsbevis vanligtvis börjar här. Arbetsmarknaden är fortsatt hälsosam och fortsätter att satsa på nya höjder, ett bullish tecken på sysselsättning och löner.
Efter en rekordhög siffra i oktober 2016 fortsatte S & P CoreLogic Case-Shiller USAs nationella bostadsprisindex att ta mark i januari, en ökning med + 5,9% från året innan. Trots låg högt 2013 har det amerikanska indexprisindexet hållit sig stabilt runt 165-nivån, med låga räntor som ökar bostadsinköp. Markit US Manufacturing PMI kom in i 54,2 i februari vilket innebär fortsatt expansion inom industrisektorn.
Den preliminära siffran för varaktiga varor under februari 2017 ökade med 1,7 procent MoM, medan industriproduktionen var oförändrad. Kapacitetsutnyttjandet låg stadigt runt 75,4% medan detaljhandeln ökade + 0,1% MoM.
Som antyds ovan förblir inflationen svag. Trots en räntehöjning hittills 2017 (och spekulationer om ytterligare två), är PCE Deflator en blygsam 1,9%, medan Kärn CPI registrerade en + 2,2% förändring i februari och Kärn PPI en marginell ökning om + 1,5%.
En blygsam prispress kommer säkerligen att ge Fed en paus innan de agerar för snabbt, vilket sannolikt förlänger den nuvarande godartade ekonomiska situationen. Varken för varmt eller för kallt verkar vara temperaturen på den ekonomiska gröt vara just nu och det är förmodligen något som kommer vara en tid framåt.
