Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – Kiwi downtrend to prevail
NZD decline pauses
Signs are emerging that the momentum that has sustained the yearlong rally in the NZD has started to take a marked turn. The trade weighted Kiwi has fallen 2.7% in the past six weeks as dovish domestic monetary policy and declining support from dairy prices has put the currency under pressure. In addition, the recent climb in developed market sovereign yields has tempered support for the NZD from carry trades, investments that profit from widening interest rate differentials between the NZD and other currencies (see Figure 1). While better than expected Q3 inflation numbers have provided the NZD/USD and NZD/EUR with a small boost, we still believe the downward trend is likely to continue, with current levels offering an attractive entry point for tactical investors. A further cut to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) official cash rate at the monetary policy meeting in November could be the catalyst for the next leg lower for the NZD.
(click to enlarge)
Bearish factors weigh in
At the latest monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) refrained from cutting interest rates but made it clear that “further policy easing will be required”. The New Zealand economy has benefited from strong inward migration and healthy growth, but headline inflation remains at multi-decade lows, in part due to the strength of its own currency. As outlined in a speech by the RBNZ assistant governor, John McDermott, last week the central bank’s concern is that soft headline inflation figures will feed into “expectations of future inflation” and “weigh on future actual inflation”. While Q3 inflation of 0.2% impressed markets, on an absolute basis it remains lacklustre, so we expect the RBNZ to maintain its dovish inclination and cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting on the 9th November. Lower rates will weigh on the relative rate differential between the NZD and its developed currency counterparts and keep the NZD under pressure.
Strong resistance to come
The NZD/USD is currently hovering between its recently established downward trend line at around the 0.721 level and its 100 day moving average (DMA) at 0.718. These levels have significance as they acted as key support points over recent months and will prove difficult for the currency pair to breach without a strong impetus. Should the currency pair turn lower it is likely to run into support at its July 25th low at around 0.696, 3.9% below current levels. For the NZD/EUR, the technical picture is less compelling at current levels but a further move to 0.66 would provide an attractive point to gain short exposure as this resistance has failed to be significantly penetrated since May of last year.
Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:
Currency ETPs
EUR Base
ETFS Long NZD Short EUR (EUNZ)
ETFS Short NZD Long EUR (NZEU)
GBP Base
ETFS Long NZD Short GBP (GBNZ)
ETFS Short NZD Long GBP (NZGB)
USD Base
ETFS Long NZD Short USD (LNZD)
ETFS Short NZD Long USD (SNZD)
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Market Insight – Foreign Exchange – Kiwi strength to fade on further easing
Optimistic Wheeler supports NZD
Last week Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor, Graeme Wheeler, struck a surprisingly optimistic tone at the bank’s monetary policy meeting, holding off on any further rate cuts and painting a far better picture of the global economy and the domestic inflationary outlook than three months ago. The improved tone of the meeting and decision to maintain the status quo boosted the NZD on the day and contributed to a wider 3.8% rally experienced since the start of June (on a trade weighted basis). Recent NZD strength can be attributed to the relatively high interest rate that New Zealandoffers when compared with developed market counterparts, as foreign central banks maintain ultra-loose monetary policy measures in the face of subdued inflationary pressures. Currency strength has potential to neutralise the impact of low interest rates on improvements in domestic inflation which could force the RBNZ to pursue a more aggressive easing path than currently assumed.
Risks to RBNZ projections
In its second monetary policy statement of the year, the RBNZ presented a risk scenario in which a stronger NZD weighs on inflation by making imports cheaper and consumers more prone to switching away from domestically produced goods and services to imports. In such an event, the RBNZ assumes that more aggressive cuts to interest rates will be needed to ensure inflation settles around the 2% level in the medium term. This risk may already be in play, with the current trade weighted level of the NZD 3.9% higher than assumed the RBNZ’s scenario analysis (see Figure 1). Should recent NZD strength be reflected in weak Q2 inflation data scheduled for release on the 17th July, then the NZD may come under pressure against the US Dollar, where core inflationary pressures and rate prospects are improving.
NZD/USD to face resistance
The NZD/USD exchange rate is trading at the highest levels for the past twelve months, but has struggled to sustain an increase beyond the 0.71 level that it reached on the day of the RBNZ meeting (9th June). Going forward, should the NZD/USD test this level again there is potential for it to run into some resistance.
*All figures quoted are sourced from Bloomberg unless stated otherwise.
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On March 10th the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets with a 25bp interest rate cut, citing international weakness and falling inflation expectations as key drivers. Even with the element of surprise, the move failed to halt the NZD’s recent rally, with the currency appreciating a further 2.1%* in the following fortnight on a trade weighted basis, contributing to a broader 5.8%* rise over the past seven months. The NZD has been a key beneficiary of improving risk sentiment and growing demand for high-yielding assets; with its domestic government bonds offering the best return of the G10 currency group (see Figure 1). However, the NZD/USD currency pair is approaching the peak of its recent trading range and the RBNZ appears likely to implement further monetary easing measures at its upcoming meetings; factors which, in the short term, may see the NZD correct lower.
Figure 1
(Click to enlarge)
Falling inflation expectations arouses concern
The recent strength of the NZD has surpassed the expectations of the RBNZ by some margin (with the trade weighted exchange rate sitting 4% higher than December projections) and is exacerbating central bank concern that falling inflation could embed itself in expectations. The latest monetary report revealed that results from business and consumer surveys monitored by the RBNZ indicate that inflation expectations have experienced a “material decline” in recent months (Figure 2); stoking fears that weakness could feed through to wage setting negotiations and trigger a deflationary spiral.
At the press conference following the monetary policy announcement, the RBNZ Deputy Governor identified the deterioration in inflation expectations as the “primary motive” behind the decision to cut rates in March. These concerns increase the importance of Q1 inflation numbers due on April 17th, as a poor reading will increase the likelihood of further interest rate cuts at the RBNZ’s upcoming meetings, which will likely place the NZD under pressure.
Figure 2
(Click to enlarge)
Top of recent range
A combination of dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, and NZD strength has pushed the NZD/USD currency pair to the higher end of its recent trading range. From a technical perspective, since falling through the 0.69 level in June of last year the NZD/USD has struggled to breach this level for a prolonged period and so further gains to the upside appear unlikely.
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Kommande rating review ett hot mot Nya Zeeland. iShares MSCI New Zeeland Capped ETF (NYSEArca: ENZL), har trotsat såväl logik som tyngdlagen under 2013. Denna ETF som har ett market cap på cirka 150 MUSD, är oss veterligen den enda som tracka börsen i Auckland. Nya Zeeland är vid sidan av att vara landet som Sagan om Ringen filmerna spelats in också en av världens största mjölkproducenter.
Under året som har gått har denna ETF visat en uppgång på 16,7 procent, vilket gör att den med råge överträffar den uppgång om 9,3 som dess australienska motsvarighet, iShares MSCI Australia ETF (NYSEArca: EWA) gett sina ägare. Få andra utvecklade marknader har kunnat uppvisa en sådan uppgång, men det finns ett moln på horisonten. Nya Zeeland förlorade nästan sin AAA-rating tidigare i år när Moodys Investors Service , den enda av tre stora kreditvärderingsinstitut som gett landet det högsta kreditbetyget funderade på att sänka detta.
Envis Kiwi
Den nyzeeländska dollarn, i vardagligt tal kallad kiwi, har förblivit envist stark till den grad att vissa internationella bankirer öppet har kallat det övervärderad. Detta till trots har Reserve Bank of New Zeeland envist vägrat att ta del av den lågräntepolitik som Federal Reserve vilket har fått flera av de största andelsägarna i ENZL att kritisera den starka kiwin.
Moodys varnade Nya Zeeland för att landets ökade bytesbalansunderskott gör det sårbart för externa chocker. Tittar vi på andra ETFer som följt ekonomierna i Indien och Indonesien så ser vi att dessa straffats hårt som en följd av dessa länders ökade underskott.
Nya Zeelands investeringsunderskott mot utlandet är nästan 27 % högre än Australiens och nästan tre gånger det för USA. Under det tredje kvartalet 2011 sänkte de båda andra kreditvärderarna Fitch Ratings och Standard & Poor’s Nya Zeelands ranking från AAA. Att Moodys valt att låta det vara kvar kan bero på olika orsaker, men enligt vad nyhetsbyrån Bloomberg rapporterar så skall Moodys åter granska Nya Zeeland under 2014, då med en ny metod som lägger en högre vikt vid olika länders externa positioner.
En förlust av AAA-ratingen kan komma att innebära att det är dags att ta hem vinsterna från ENZL. Tittar vi på hur det gick för Australien och Kanada så tog det dessa länder 10 respektive 17 år att återvinna sina AAA-ratings efter att de förlorat dem 1986 respektive 1992.
