Etikett: TAARSS

TAARSS says no trends…stay diversified during Q4

Deutsche Bank TAARSS says no trends...stay diversified during Q4TAARSS says no trends…stay diversified during Q4

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global
The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says no trends…stay diversified during Q4

 

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Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update

In Q4, prefer equities, followed by fixed income, and a pinch of commodities. Prefer longer maturities within fixed income.

Market review

Main asset classes were down during September with Global equities (ACWI) and US bonds (AGG) losing 3.32% and 0.61%, respectively. While Commodities (DBC) plunged by 7.23%.

TAARSS rotation strategy quarterly and monthly performance review

TAARSS strategies and benchmarks were all negative for the quarter and for the last month. The quarterly multi asset rotation outperformed its benchmarks, while the global equity monthly rotations were significantly weaker than their benchmarks. The multi asset allocation turned appropriate for Q3, however the equity TAARSS performance for market and regions was impacted by the reversal of EM and Latam.

Tactical positioning for Q4 and October 2014

Global growth uncertainty, geopolitical risks, looming interest rate hikes, and commodity weakness, all bode well for a volatile environment across all asset classes. As a result, TAARSS signals are suggesting non trending markets. More specifically, TAARSS recommends a diversified asset allocation for Q4 with a preference for equities, followed by fixed income, and a small sleeve for commodities. Within fixed income, TAARSS recommends a preference for long term duration for the quarter (see details for new quarterly duration rotation strategy on Page 18). For October, TAARSS signals for equities advice to maintain a diversified exposure with a relative preference for DM over EM, with focus in the US away from small caps. We also caution against the strength of the signals of Switzerland, Latin America, Brazil, Russia, South Korea, and US Treasuries as we think they are influenced by flow anomalies.

 

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TAARSS says EM, Asia, China, HK, US Large Cap, and US Treasuries

TAARSS says EM, Asia, China, HK, US Large Cap, and US Treasuries

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global

The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says EM, Asia, China, HK, US Large Cap, and US Treasuries

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Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update

We highlight: HK, China, US Treasury, Energy Cmdty, EM on the strong side; and Agribusiness, France, Italy, Utilities, and Europe on the weak side.

Market review

Global equities (ACWI) and US bonds (AGG) recorded gains of 2.58% and 1.15% during August, respectively. In the meantime, Commodities (DBC) experienced another month of weakness posting a loss of 1.15% last month.

TAARSS rotation strategy monthly performance review

TAARSS rotation strategies were mostly positive for the previous month; with most strategies outperforming their benchmarks. Within equities, the US (3.95%), US Mid Caps (5.06%), Latin America (8.59%), and Switzerland (2.53%) were the strongest performers per strategy; while Gold (0.38%) and Convertibles (3.24%) were the top categories within commodities and fixed income, respectively during the month of August.

Tactical positioning for September 2014

For the month of September, TAARSS equity positioning indicates a preference for Large Caps within the US and away from mid & small caps, Asia Pacific and Latin America among regions away from Europe, EM for market allocations, and Hong Kong for DM countries and away from France and Italy. In terms of fixed income sectors, TAARSS favors US Treasuries while steering away from EM Debt and Senior Loans; moreover Energy saw a very strong signal within the commodity rotation. Within non-rotation equity signals (US sectors and industries, EM countries, and equity themes), we highlight strong trends in International Real Estate, EM Asia (China, South Korea, and India), Latam (Brazil and Mexico), Russia, and domestic cyclicals (e.g. Cons. Discretionary and Transportation); while Utilities and Agribusiness are among the weakest ones.