REIT update December 2015. Marknaden för REIT bolag har varit ganska slagig och volatil under november månad. December har börjat med negativa avkastningar på alla REIT marknader vi täcker. Överlag klarade våra REIT fonder sig bra i november förutom UB European REIT som tappade 0,81%. Makro bilden i USA är att FED kommer att höja räntan nu i december och att den amerikanska ekonomin ser relativt svag ut för tillfället även om arbetsmarknaden ser ut att må bra. Tillverkningsindustrin saktar av kraftigt och tidigare har detta till och med lett till recession. Men den stora frågan är ifall arbetsmarknaden är stark nog att få igång en ökning av lönerna, vilket skulle vara mycket positivt för ekonomin i.o.m. att nästan 70 % av BNP tillväxten kommer ifrån konsumtion.
Värderingarna på REIT aktier ser förmånliga ut, speciellt i USA där det dessutom råder hög aktivitet i fastighetsmarknaden. Vi har under 2015 sett 5 REIT bolag som ingick i vår UB Nordamerika REIT fond köpas ut från börsen. En starkare ekonomi i USA och att man hållit tillbaka byggandet av fastigheter skapar goda förutsättningar för REITs med stigande hyror och lägre vakansgrader på lite längre sikt. Om inflationen stiger är det till fördel för REITs som har indexeringar som ”kickar” in.
Vi ser fortfarande en attraktiv värdering av REIT bolag i Asien med vår UB Asia REIT fond på en substansvärdering på 0,8 i förhållande till NAV och med en direktavkastning på 4,90%.
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