Etikett: Copper

Political and policy uncertainty generates safe haven demand for gold

Political and policy uncertainty generates safe haven demand for gold ETF SecuritiesPolitical and policy uncertainty generates safe haven demand for gold

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Political and policy uncertainty generates safe haven demand for gold

  • Strong inflows into gold ETPs for 4th consecutive week, amidst political and policy uncertainty.
  • Profit-taking in oil continues for 4th consecutive week despite OPEC production cuts.
  • Natural gas ETPs received largest inflows since June 2015.
  • Copper bucks trend of industrial metal inflows, with largest outflows in 14 weeks.
  • Investors exit US Dollar positions as lack of clarity over Trump policy will keep the Fed on hold.

Strong inflows into gold ETPs political and policy uncertainty. Gold remains a firm investor favourite, notching up the 4th consecutive week of inflows. Investors have been lured to gold’s defensive characteristics as the Eurozone remains mired in political uncertainty with Dutch and French elections just around the corner. Meanwhile the ECB has hinted at temporarily moving away from its capital key in order to subvert the problems associated with its limited pool of bonds for its quantitative easing programme. Expanding its QE activities is likely to heap pressure on the Euro and investors are looking to gold as a monetary devaluation hedge. Gold inflows were at a 30 week high, totalling US$192.1mn last week

Profit-taking in oil continues for 4th consecutive week despite OPEC production cuts. OPEC Secretary General Barkindo indicated his optimism that the cartel can sustain a higher level of compliance than the 90% reported in January. Investors, however, appear less than convinced: We believe that oil prices will remain under pressure in the near term as US oil production and inventories continue to grow. Outflows from oil ETPs last week totalled US12mn mostly from WTI oil ETPs.

Natural gas ETPs received largest inflows since June 2015 after prices drop another 6.6%. Natural gas prices reached the lowest level since early November following unseasonably warmer weather in the US, leading to lower demand across all sectors. The sharp price declines have prompted bargain hunting by investors, with inflows totalling US$12.8mn – the largest inflows in 20 months.

Copper bucks trend of industrial metal inflows, with largest outflows in 14 weeks. Profit-taking by investors totalled US$21.9mn last week. The copper price has benefited from outages in mines that account for close to 12% of global capacity. If these outages last for another few weeks, we are likely to see another year of a supply deficit in 2017. The deep capex cuts we have seen over the past few years will take longer to materially bite into supply and so copper inventory could remain elevated for several years.

US Dollar ETPs record third consecutive week of outflows, totalling US$7mn. A lack of clarity over potential policy from the Trump Administration is having a negative effect on investors. We expect further softness for the USD in coming weeks as the Fed holds of on rate hikes ahead of the release of President Trump’s budget release in mid-March.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (”CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (”HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (”HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (”SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (”FXL”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (”MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (”OSL”), ETFS Equity Securities Limited (”ESL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (”GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, MSL, OSL and ESL, the ”Issuers”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the ”Company ”). Each Issuer (apart from SCSL) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a ”Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the ”Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended). Italy: When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited. Switzerland: In Switzerland, this communication is only intended for Regulated Qualified Investors. US: This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof, where none of the Issuers, the Company or any securities issued by them are authorised or registered for distribution and where no prospectus for any of the Issuers or the Company has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. Neither the Issuers, the Company nor any securities issued by them have been or will be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the Investment Company Act of 1940 or qualified under any applicable state securities statutes. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Any historical performance included in this communication may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this communication solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance. The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchaser or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of such jurisdiction. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Securities issued by the Issuers and the Company may be structured products involving a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This communication is aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant Issuer or the Company which includes, inter alia, information on certain risks associated with an investment. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may be priced in US Dollars, Euros, or Sterling, and the value of the investment in other currencies will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities of the Issuers or the shares of the Company which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuers and the Company. The relevant prospectus for each Issuer and the Company may be obtained from www.etfsecurities.com. Please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Issuers

General: The FCA has delivered to the regulators listed below certificates of approval attesting that the prospectuses of the Issuers indicated have been drawn up in accordance with Directive 2003/71/EC. For Dutch, French, German and Italian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) have been passported from the United Kingdom into France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands and have been filed with the l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in Germany, CONSOB and the Bank of Italy in Italy and the Authority Financial Markets (Autoriteit Financiële Markten) in the Netherlands. Copies of prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports, can be obtained in France from HSBC France, 103, Avenue des Champs Elysées, 75008 Paris, in Germany from HSBC Trinkhaus & Burkhardt, AG, Konsortialgeschäft, Königsalle 21/23, 40212 Dusseldorf and in the Netherlands from Fortis Bank (Nederland) N.V., Rokin 55, 1012 KK Amsterdam. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) may be distributed to investors in France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. This communication is not a financial analysis pursuant to Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) and consequently does not meet all legal requirements to warrant the objectivity of a financial analysis and is also not subject to the ban on trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis. This communication is not addressed to or intended directly or indirectly, to (a) any persons who do not qualify as qualified investors (gekwalificeerde beleggers) within the meaning of section 1:1 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act as amended from time to time; and/or (b) in circumstances where other exemptions or dispensations from the prohibition the Dutch Financial Supervision Act or the Exemption Regulation of the Act on Financial Supervision apply. None of the Issuers is required to have a license pursuant to the Dutch Financial Supervision Act as it is exempt from any licensing requirements and is not regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets and consequently no prudential and conduct of business supervision will be exercised. For Austrian, Danish, Finnish, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of CSL, HCSL, HMSL, MSL, ESL and FXL have been passported from the United Kingdom into Austria, Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and have been filed with Österreichische Finanzmarktaufsicht (Austrian Financial Market Authority) in Austria, Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority) in Denmark, Finanssivalvonta (Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority) in Finland, Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (Portuguese Securities Market Commission) in Portugal, Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (Securities Market Commission) in Spain and the Finansinspektionen (Financial Supervisory Authority) in Sweden. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for these entities may be distributed to investors in Austria, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Denmark and Sweden. For Belgian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for GBS, CSL, MSL and FXL have been passported from the United Kingdom into Belgium and has been filed with the Commission Bancair, Financiére et des Assurances in Belgium. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for GBS, CSL, MSL and FXL may be distributed to investors in Belgium. For Swiss investors: The prospectus (and any supplements thereto) for SCSL may be distributed to investors in Switzerland. Securities in SCSL are not shares or units in collective investment schemes within the meaning of CISA. They have not been approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and are not subject to its supervision. The Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities are not issued or guaranteed by a supervised financial intermediary within the meaning of CISA. This document does not constitute a prospectus under the Companies (Jersey) Law 1991 and is not an offer or an invitation to acquire securities in SCSL. This document does not constitute a Swiss listing prospectus under the SIX Listing Rules and the SIX Additional Rules for the listing of Exchange Traded Products. This document must be read in conjunction with the Swiss Listing Prospectus. If there is any inconsistency between this document and the Swiss Listing Prospectus, the Swiss Listing Prospectus shall prevail. Detailed information on the terms and conditions of the Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities can be found in the Swiss Listing Prospectus under Part 6 – Trust Instrument and Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities. Other than as set out above investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at info@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered. Securities issued by the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG (”UBS”), Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Merrill Lynch International (”MLI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC”), Bloomberg Finance LP (”Bloomberg”), Société Générale (”SG ”), Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated or any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS, MLCI, MLI, BAC, Bloomberg, SG, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this communication or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

Funds

Austria: Investors should base their investment decision only on the relevant prospectus of the Company, the Key Investor Information Document, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association, which can be obtained free of charge upon request at the Paying and Information Agent in Austria, Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG, Graben 21, A1010 Wien, Österreich and on www.etfsecurities.com. France: Any subscription for shares of the Funds will be made on the basis of the terms of the prospectus, the simplified prospectus and any supplements or addenda thereto. The Company is a UCITS governed by Irish legislation and approved by the Financial Regulator as UCITS compliant with European regulations although may not have to comply with the same rules as those applicable to a similar product approved in France. Certain of the Funds have been registered for marketing in France by the Authority Financial Markets (Autorité des Marchés Financiers) and may be distributed to investors in France. Copies of all documents (i.e. the prospectus (including any supplements or addenda thereto, the Key Investor Information Document, the latest annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and articles of association) are available in France, free of charge, at the French Centralizing Agent, Société Générale, Securities Services, at 1-5 rue du Débarcadère, 92700 Colombes – France. Germany: The offering of the Shares of the Fund has been notified to the German Financial Services Supervisory Authority (BaFin) in accordance with section 310 of the German Investment Code (KAGB). Copies of all documents (i.e. the Key Investor Information Document (in the German language), the prospectus, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association) can be obtained free of charge upon request at the Paying and Information Agent in Germany, HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Königsallee 21-23, 40212 Düsseldorf and on www.etfsecurities.com. The current offering and redemption prices as well as the net asset value and possible notifications of the investors can also be requested free of charge at the same address. In Germany the Shares will be settled as co-owner shares in a Global Bearer certificate issued by Clearstream Banking AG. This type of settlement only occurs in Germany because there is no direct link between the English and German clearing and settlement systems CREST and Clearstream. For this reason the ISIN used for trading of the Shares in Germany differs from the ISIN used in other countries. Netherlands: Each Fund has been registered with the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets following the UCITS passport-procedure pursuant to section 2:72 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act. United Kingdom: Each Fund is a recognised scheme under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and so the prospectus may be distributed to investors in the United Kingdom. Copies of all documents (i.e. the Key Investor Information Document, the prospectus, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association) are available in the United Kingdom from www.etfsecurities.com. None of the index providers of the Funds referred to herein nor their licensors make any warranty or representation whatsoever either as to the results obtained from use of the relevant indices and/or the figures at which such indices stand at any particular day or otherwise. None of the index providers shall be liable to any person for any errors or significant delays in the relevant indices nor shall be under any obligation to advise any person of any error or significant delay therein.  

Rate rise fears temper firm commodity fundamentals

Rate rise fears temper firm commodity fundamentals

ETF Securities Commodity Monthly Monitor – Rate rise fears temper firm commodity fundamentals

Your reference guide to commodity markets. Includes the latest outlook for each commodity sector and major developments for individual commodities.

  • Despite the lower probability of a La Nina weather pattern developing this year, the overhang of record stock levels and higher production forecasts are weighing on prices.
  • Fundamentals to sustain a recovery in industrial metals in Q4 or Q1 2017.
  • Oil continues to remain volatile, but will trade within a range of US$40/bbl to US$55/bbl.
  • Precious Metals likely to remain volatile amid key central bank meetings.

The base effects from the commodity rout in late 2015 only begins rolling out of the headline inflation data in late 2016 but should leave US inflation close to 1.7% by year end, up from 0.8% now. This coupled with rising wages is likely to pressure the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, with a rhetoric prior to that of increasing hawkishness. Following a strong run in commodities (since the February trough) of 22%, weaker growth expectations from China and forecasts for policy tightening in the US have driven a selloff, with commodities declining 6% since late June. We have continued to see inflows into safe-haven assets, particularly gold, reflecting a wide range of concerns that can be categorised into five main categories:

  1. uncertainty from the Fed and
  2. the ECB over policy action,
  3. Middle-East instability,
  4. negative interest rates surpassing that of gold’s cost of carry and
  5. the broad rise of political populism in the developed world.

We believe that the rise of populist parties, elected or not, is a powerful catalyst for reform, with incumbent parties scrambling to counter the populist wave by implementing similar policies. We expect economic stimulus to shift solely from monetary policy to include fiscal policy with the end result being a rise in infrastructure spend and social initiatives to combat inequality, prompting wider government deficits and higher inflation. Despite the broad set of fears pervading the market at present we are continuing to see improving growth figures from the developing markets where delivered economic data is broadly beating expectations. We believe the emerging markets are much better positioned to weather the prospects of a stronger USD now than they were 3 years ago.

  • Despite the lower probability of a La Nina weather pattern developing this year, the overhang of record stock levels and higher production forecasts are weighing on agricultural commodity prices. Coffee, sugar, corn and soybean oil were the only commodities to post positive returns among the agriculture commodity complex.
  • Fundamentals to sustain a recovery in industrial metals in Q4 or Q1 2017. Declining production combined with rising consumption resulted in a global supply deficit in each industrial metal in Q2. The commodity sector may end 2016 in a deficit for the second time since 2005. We believe copper is the best positioned to benefit from the recovery.
  • Oil continues to remain volatile, but will trade within a range of US$40/bbl to US$55/bbl. Speculation as to whether OPEC will freeze production after its informal meeting later this month has been a source of that volatility. However, we believe that focus on an OPEC freeze is misplaced and cuts to non-OPEC production will push the market into balance.
  • Precious metals declined 2.1% last month as expectations of a US rate hike this year increased and the ECB failed to signal any further loosening of policy. We believe demand for gold and silver is likely remain volatile in the second half of the year amid a number of decisive central bank meetings and the US presidential election.

For those of you following the contrarian model we have the following signals;

BUY                       Ticker Copper                 COPA LN PCOP LN (GBP hedged) 00XL GY  (EUR hedged) LCOP LN  (2x Leverage) 3CUL LN  (3x Leverage)

Live Cattle           AIGL LN FLIV LN  (Longer dated) LLCT LN (2x Leverage)

SELL                       Ticker Gasoline              UGAS LGAS  (2x Leverage)

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (”CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (”HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (”HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (”SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (”FXL”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (”MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (”OSL”), ETFS Equity Securities Limited (”ESL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (”GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, MSL, OSL and ESL, the ”Issuers”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the ”Company ”). Each Issuer (apart from SCSL) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a ”Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the ”Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended). Italy: When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited. Switzerland: In Switzerland, this communication is only intended for Regulated Qualified Investors. US: This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof, where none of the Issuers, the Company or any securities issued by them are authorised or registered for distribution and where no prospectus for any of the Issuers or the Company has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. Neither the Issuers, the Company nor any securities issued by them have been or will be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the Investment Company Act of 1940 or qualified under any applicable state securities statutes. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Any historical performance included in this communication may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this communication solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance. The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchaser or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of such jurisdiction. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Securities issued by the Issuers and the Company may be structured products involving a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This communication is aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant Issuer or the Company which includes, inter alia, information on certain risks associated with an investment. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may be priced in US Dollars, Euros, or Sterling, and the value of the investment in other currencies will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities of the Issuers or the shares of the Company which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuers and the Company. The relevant prospectus for each Issuer and the Company may be obtained from www.etfsecurities.com. Please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Issuers

General: The FCA has delivered to the regulators listed below certificates of approval attesting that the prospectuses of the Issuers indicated have been drawn up in accordance with Directive 2003/71/EC. For Dutch, French, German and Italian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) have been passported from the United Kingdom into France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands and have been filed with the l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in Germany, CONSOB and the Bank of Italy in Italy and the Authority Financial Markets (Autoriteit Financiële Markten) in the Netherlands. Copies of prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports, can be obtained in France from HSBC France, 103, Avenue des Champs Elysées, 75008 Paris, in Germany from HSBC Trinkhaus & Burkhardt, AG, Konsortialgeschäft, Königsalle 21/23, 40212 Dusseldorf and in the Netherlands from Fortis Bank (Nederland) N.V., Rokin 55, 1012 KK Amsterdam. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) may be distributed to investors in France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. This communication is not a financial analysis pursuant to Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) and consequently does not meet all legal requirements to warrant the objectivity of a financial analysis and is also not subject to the ban on trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis. This communication is not addressed to or intended directly or indirectly, to (a) any persons who do not qualify as qualified investors (gekwalificeerde beleggers) within the meaning of section 1:1 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act as amended from time to time; and/or (b) in circumstances where other exemptions or dispensations from the prohibition the Dutch Financial Supervision Act or the Exemption Regulation of the Act on Financial Supervision apply. None of the Issuers is required to have a license pursuant to the Dutch Financial Supervision Act as it is exempt from any licensing requirements and is not regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets and consequently no prudential and conduct of business supervision will be exercised. For Austrian, Danish, Finnish, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of CSL, HCSL, HMSL, MSL, ESL and FXL have been passported from the United Kingdom into Austria, Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and have been filed with Österreichische Finanzmarktaufsicht (Austrian Financial Market Authority) in Austria, Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority) in Denmark, Finanssivalvonta (Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority) in Finland, Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (Portuguese Securities Market Commission) in Portugal, Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (Securities Market Commission) in Spain and the Finansinspektionen (Financial Supervisory Authority) in Sweden. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for these entities may be distributed to investors in Austria, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Denmark and Sweden. For Belgian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for GBS, CSL, MSL and FXL have been passported from the United Kingdom into Belgium and has been filed with the Commission Bancair, Financiére et des Assurances in Belgium. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for GBS, CSL, MSL and FXL may be distributed to investors in Belgium. For Swiss investors: The prospectus (and any supplements thereto) for SCSL may be distributed to investors in Switzerland. Securities in SCSL are not shares or units in collective investment schemes within the meaning of CISA. They have not been approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and are not subject to its supervision. The Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities are not issued or guaranteed by a supervised financial intermediary within the meaning of CISA. This document does not constitute a prospectus under the Companies (Jersey) Law 1991 and is not an offer or an invitation to acquire securities in SCSL. This document does not constitute a Swiss listing prospectus under the SIX Listing Rules and the SIX Additional Rules for the listing of Exchange Traded Products. This document must be read in conjunction with the Swiss Listing Prospectus. If there is any inconsistency between this document and the Swiss Listing Prospectus, the Swiss Listing Prospectus shall prevail. Detailed information on the terms and conditions of the Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities can be found in the Swiss Listing Prospectus under Part 6 – Trust Instrument and Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities. Other than as set out above investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at info@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered. Securities issued by the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG (”UBS”), Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Merrill Lynch International (”MLI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC”), Bloomberg Finance LP (”Bloomberg”), Société Générale (”SG ”), Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated or any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS, MLCI, MLI, BAC, Bloomberg, SG, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this communication or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

Funds

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Commodity volatility expected

Commodity volatility expected

ETF Securities Commodities Research: Commodity volatility expected as China liberalises financial markets

Commodity volatility expected as China liberalises financial markets

Summary

China is both one of the largest producers and consumers of most commodities. Yet financial centres in the UK and US are responsible for setting global prices for many commodities.

China seeks to expand its role in the intermediation and price setting of global commodities. However a key hurdle is currency restrictions and capitals controls.

While timing of any currency and capital market reform is unclear, dismantling these restrictions could unwind large carry-trades that use commodities as collateral, introducing a new source of volatility to the asset class.

China and commodity demand

China’s role in the upward phase of the commodity supercycle remains largely undisputed: resource-intensive economic growth, led by urbanisation, industrialisation, and a growth in global trade between the mid-1990s and the financial crisis in 2008 drove demand for commodities higher. With supply unable to keep up with demand, prices rose substantially higher. Although more volatile, commodities prices have a fairly strong correlation to China’s GDP growth.

China’s commodity futures markets

Futures markets are an integral part of the global financial market infrastructure, as they allow both consumers and producers of commodities to hedge. Hedgers are typically on the short side of futures markets and thus need to offer positive risk premia to attract speculators on the long side.i By bringing a large number of financial investors to the long side, financialisation of commodities mitigates this hedging pressure and improves risk sharing.

Although China is the largest consumer of commodities, its development of a futures market in commodities only took place after the onset of the commodity supercycle (and many commodities have been added in the downward phase of the cycle). The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) started trading copper and aluminium in 1999 and added zinc (2007), gold (2008), nickel (2014).
The volume of gold and copper traded on the SHFE has been rising, highlighting the traction that the market for these metals has been gaining in China.

Global ambitions require currency policy change

China seeks to play a larger role in the intermediation of commodities internationally. It recognises it is the largest consumer and producer of many commodities, yet relies on financial centres outside of China for the setting of prices. Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said at the SHFE’s annual conference in May 2016 “We’re facing a chance of a lifetime to become a global pricing center for commodities”. Due to currency restrictions, trading in raw materials is largely off-limits to overseas investors. However, that is an issue that China has long pledged to change. Any change in currency policy will likely be a strong catalyst for the growth of China’s commodity futures market.

Distortions in Chinese commodities…

Closed capital markets and currency restrictions have led to some unusual practices in China. China’s interest rate is higher than many other countries (especially developed market interest rates which in some cases are below zero). If Chinese investors were able to borrow in foreign currencies they could engage in a typical carry trade and arbitrage from the rate differential (subject to currency market moves). However, capital restrictions which stop domestic investors accessing foreign loans and exchange rate management violate the so called ‘covered interest rate parity’.

However a loophole exists. In order to make Chinese manufacturers more profitable, the authorities allow them to use work in process inventory such as copper, tin, aluminium (or even finished inventory) as collateral for loans. A manufacturer can go to a local bank and ask to borrow in US dollars or euros or yen etc. at low interest rates using commodity as collateral. The funds will be delivered to the manufacturer in Yuan and can be deposited at high interest rates. The local bank would verify to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC, the central bank) that the collateral is sitting in a warehouse (i.e. is bonded) and the PBoC will use an offshore entity to borrow the funds (which it will then pass to the local bank).The existence of the facility could be artificially inflating demand for commodity imports into China.

The risk with opening up currency markets therefore is that this carry trade could fall away and unlock a substantial amount of commodities tied up in bonded warehouses to industrial usage.

It is estimated that in 2014 about US$109 billion foreign exchange loans in China were backed by commodities as collateral, equivalent to 31% of China’s short-term FX loans and 14% of China’s total FX loans.ii In 2014, China imported US$1.7 trillion of commodities. The estimated amount of financing therefore represents about 6% of imports. In the worst case scenario if all those commodities were to unwind (a scenario we don’t believe will occur), there could be a 6% supply shock, which would be price negative. A collateral unwind of a smaller magnitude, we believe will still lead to commodity price volatility.

Copper is probably most at risk. Close to half of current copper demand in China could be from the copper carry trade.

…including gold

A similar trade exists in gold. Imported gold is being used via gold loans and letters of credit to raise low cost funds for business investment and speculation. Financial liberalisation could also see these trades unwind.
In 1950 China had prohibited private ownership of bullion and put the gold industry under state control. With the creation of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in 2002, formal prohibition on gold bullion was lifted in 2004. China has embraced this relatively new opportunity to own gold, with the country overtaking India as the largest consumer gold coins and bars. Despite the cultural affinity to buy and store gold, those stocks can be monetised. Gold leasing i.e. the ability for banks to loan out gold has seen rapid growth. Gold can also be used as collateral for borrowing from banks as long as it meets the SGE criteria. Once again this collateral-based lending could fall away if access to unsecured loans is improved.

We expect any movement to a freer currency and open capital markets to be gradual. But that transition could introduce volatility to global commodity prices as collateral carry trades in China unwind.

i Keynes (1923), Hicks (1939), Hirshleiffer (1988)
ii “Commodities as Collateral” in forthcoming Review of Financial Studies by Ke Tang (Tsingua University) and Haoxiang Zhu (MIT Sloan School of Management), April 2016

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Continued inflows for commodities as energy sector bucks the trend

Continued inflows for commodities as energy sector bucks the trend

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Continued inflows for commodities as energy sector bucks the trend

  • Gold price continues higher, with 2016 inflows near US$1.9bn, as policy uncertainty reigns.
  • Palladium inflows hit six month highs on rising US car sales.
  • Profit-taking continues for crude oil ETPs, led by WTI products.

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Gold ETP inflows have experienced withdrawals in only two weeks in 2016, with inflows totalling US$1.9bn. Gold’s rally appears to be set to continue as the market reacts to softer economic data in the US. The downside surprise for US jobs will keep uncertainty surrounding US Fed policy elevated and will certainly support gold as a potential inflation overshoot in the US seems likely. Nonetheless, the gold price needs to sustainably break above the US$1300/oz level for confidence in the precious metal to remain high. Although futures market positioning is reaching stretched levels, with myriad economic indicators to be released this week from the US, China, the Eurozone and the UK, any disappointment will boost gold higher.

Palladium inflows reach the highest level since November 2015. Although modest, the US$3.0mn inflows represent the second consecutive week of inflows, and the largest since late November 2015. Car sales have been buoyant with US light vehicle sales rising 5% over the past month (4% yoy), according to Autodata. Meanwhile, support for platinum group metals could be renewed in coming weeks, as the so-called ‘strike season’ in the South African mining industry looms. New wage negotiations are expected to occur in June, when current agreements lapse. All indications point to troubled negotiations, which led to strikes and a slump in production from the world’s largest PGM mining country.

Energy sector bucks the trend with fourth consecutive week of outflows led by oil ETPs. More profit-taking has been evident in oil ETPs, as prices struggle around US$45/bbl. Last week’s outflows of US$38.7mn takes outflows over the past month to US$236mn. While crude prices were supported late last week as a wild fire threatened a not insignificant amount of Canadian oil sands output, such support is likely to fade with ongoing builds in US oil storage volumes. Last week’s outflows of US$38.7mn takes outflows over the past month to US$236mn. 80% of last week’s outflows consisted of withdrawals from WTI crude ETPs.

Diversified industrial metal exposures lead sector with US34.1mn inflows. Tighter fundamentals across a range of industrial metals have seen investors look to gaining broad exposures in the sector, with inflows into broad basket industrial metals ETPs the third highest on record. Copper remains the preferred choice for individual industrial metals exposures, resuming the trend of inflows, which totalled US$5.6mn last week.

Key events to watch this week. The economic calendar is bulging this week, with key economic indicators from around the globe scheduled for release. A raft of Chinese data is released, including trade, retail sales and industrial production will likely be the catalyst for a continued move higher for commodities, particularly industrial metals. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation and GDP readings will leave no question on the outlook for ECB policy: more stimulus. Central bank report from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England should shed some light on the outlook for monetary policy, but typically guarded communications could see asset market volatility remain elevated.

Video Presentation

Martin Arnold, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

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This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

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Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

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Failure to agree on a production freeze to weigh on oil

Failure to agree on a production freeze to weigh on oil

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Failure to agree on a production freeze to weigh on oil

  • Gold ETPs recorded another week of large inflows with current price momentum likely to last until the next Fed meeting on April 27.
  • A surge in oil prices ahead of the global oil producers meeting yesterday triggered profit taking last week with prices likely to weaken again as the meeting resulted in a non-agreement.
  • Improving sentiment has seen increased inflows into industrial metals ETPs since March 2016.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Interest in gold to continue until Fed uncertainty is lifted. Last week saw another US$180mn flow into gold ETPs, despite the yellow metal losing some ground, bringing total year-to-date inflows into gold ETPs to US$1.8bn. Strength in demand for the metal is likely to continue until the Fed provides more clarity on what it is looking for to make its next move.

Profit-taking ahead of the oil producers meeting could be followed by inflows again. Energy ETPs recorded US$80mn outflows last week, almost exclusively from oil ETPs. Buoyant oil market activity ahead of the OPEC/non-OPEC oil producers meeting on Sunday sent both Brent and WTI above the US$40/bbl. Prices surged 11.2% and 11.4% respectively over the past week to Thursday triggering profit taking, marking the largest weekly outflows since April 2015. Despite the strong likelihood of Iran absence stopping any potential agreement, investors were still pricing in an agreement to occur. As a result, yesterday’s lack of agreement to freeze output will likely see a sell-off in oil this week. We however believe that a lower for longer oil price should support global economic growth and demand for oil which will translate into the oil market falling into deficit this year, even without a cut in oil supply. Inflows into oil ETPs may return this week as prices weaken.

Interest in commodity basket ETPs increased across the complex. Diversified and sectorial commodity basket ETPs all recorded inflows last week, totalling US$53.5mn. Diversified broad baskets lead the board with net inflows of US$35mn, followed by precious metals baskets (US$9.1mn) and then industrial metals baskets (US$7.2mn). As different commodities tend to be driven by different factors, an exposure to a basket of commodities certainly allows investors to catch the momentum while mitigating the downside risks specific to individual commodities.

Sentiment towards industrial metals improves slowly but surely. Last week saw the largest inflows into industrial metal ETPs since May 2015 of US$29mn, mostly driven by inflows into copper ETPs. The commodity sector has seen continued and increasing inflows since early March 2016 indicating that the momentum is slowly but surely building up. Supporting this trend, short industrial metals ETPs have recorded increasing outflows at the same time. We continue to believe that this year will be a turning point for metals as we expect copper, nickel and zinc to be in deficit this year while demand from China remains robust.

Key events to watch this week. A number of confidence indicators and manufacturing PMIs are likely to be in focus. The Australian and Canadian central banks will publish their meeting minutes while the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision this Thursday is likely to be a non-event unless it publishes technical details of the expanded quantitative easing programme it intends to start in June.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.