Etikett: Copper

Gold and Oil Back In Favour As Geopolitical Risks Rise

Gold and Oil Back In Favour As Geopolitical Risks Rise

Gold and Oil Back In Favour As Geopolitical Risks Rise. Geopolitical risk took another lurch for the worse last week, with Russia imposing a full ban on food imports and the US intervening in Iraq. While most macro data continues to point to a pick-up in global growth, benefiting cyclical assets, investors remain jittery and largely on the sidelines. With the geopolitical situation likely to remain tense, we expect defensive assets to continue to see strong demand in the near-term.

Gold and oil back in favour as geopolitical risks linger. Total inflows into gold and oil ETPs reached US$223mn and US$82mn respectively over the past month as geopolitical risks in Russia and the Middle East cloud the positive global economic outlook. The US authorised limited air strikes in Iraq last week, while Russia banned imports of food from the EU and the US, increasing risk aversion. While oil production and export facilities in southern Iraq have yet to be affected, a further push by ISIS into the south would likely trigger another spike in oil prices. With the geopolitical situation expected to remain tense, demand for defensive assets is likely to remain strong. Meanwhile, ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) saw US$8.5mn of outflows as the silver price came under pressure last week. Near-term headwinds are likely to continue to weigh on silver until it is clear that industrial demand is coming through. With the US manufacturing ISM rising to its highest level since 2011 and China demand picking up, we anticipate that industrial demand support will ultimately offset negative pressure from expectations of rising real interest rates.

Copper and aluminium receive combined inflows of US$127mn as investors buy into China’s growth story. While weak China’s import data and heightened geopolitical risks weighed on most industrial metal prices last week, growth in the world’s second largest economy remains robust and with strong government support the industrial metal rally looks set to continue. Stronger US growth combined with a rebound in Chinese manufacturing data and more decisive monetary stimulus in the euro area should continue to be supportive of commodity prices, metals in particular, in the coming months.

Long wheat ETPs receive US$2.7mn of inflows as abundant rainfall in Europe decreased the availability of high quality wheat. Wheat prices reacting strongly to the news and were up 5.9% last week, after having lost over 7% since the beginning of the year. Long cotton ETPs also saw inflows last week, totalling US$2.6mn, on expectations of a drought in Australia, the world’s cotton 3rd largest cotton exporter. At the same time, investors reduced their coffee exposure, with long and leveraged coffee ETPs seeing over US$5mn of outflows, as price plummeted 5.7% last week.

Key events to watch this week. Industrial production statistics for a number of countries will be coming out this week, with China, the US and the Eurozone’s likely to be watched closely. Bank of England Inflation Report will also be looked at by investors, as inflationary pressure might prompt an earlier-than-expected rate hike.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Silver and Copper see Strong Inflows as ECB Easing Boosts Risk Appetite

Silver and Copper see Strong Inflows as ECB Easing Boosts Risk Appetite

Download the complete report (.pdf)

The European Central Bank’s strong policy moves announced last week to spur growth and strong US employment data added to investor confidence in the global macro outlook, boosting interest in commodities broadly and more cyclical metals in particular. The gold price also rose on news of aggressive monetary measures taken by the ECB, as the metal often trades as an alternative hard currency.

Long silver ETPs see highest inflows in 10 weeks. Inflows of US$20.9mn last week show that investor enthusiasm for the metal that usually trades in gold’s shadow is growing. With global economic growth rising, prospects for the metal, used in many industrial applications, are improving. Silver is likely to post another supply deficit this year, following last year’s trend, further tightening the market. Despite the US imposing higher tariffs against Chinese solar panel imports last week, its new climate change policy announced last week is likely to lift the demand for photovoltaics in general. Solar panels are the fastest segment of demand growth for silver fabrication, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% over the past decade and are now as significant as photography in terms of sources of silver demand.

ETFS Copper (COPA) sees $18.1mn of inflows, the highest in a month. Investors appeared to view the drop in the copper price to a month low as a good buying opportunity. The price has been weighed on by an investigation into warehousing in China’s Qingdao port that investors worry could unwind financing deals using the metal as collateral. In our view, underlying real demand for the metal in China remains robust. We expect that as negative sentiment and speculative activity subsides, investors will again focus on tightening supply-demand fundamentals and continue to target a copper price of around US$7,500/tonne.

Gold ETPs see the biggest outflows since September 2013 as investors continue to rotate into more cyclical assets. Although the gold price rose on Thursday following the ECB’s decision to cut interest rates and press on with other monetary easing measures, the gold price ended the week lower as markets focused on the potential for further US dollar strength. In our view, however, with positioning already heavily negative gold, the gold price now trading near its marginal cost of production and developed market equity markets looking heavily stretched, we view the gold price as these levels as relatively cheap insurance against the possibility the current consensus positive macro views are wrong.

Profit taking drives US$15.8mn out of ETFS Aluminium (ALUM). Marking the largest outflow since November 2013. Aluminium has been the best performing industrial metal this month, gaining 4.7% as China tries to address oversupply in domestic production.

ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) saw its largest outflow since July 2013. Taking profit on a 1.1% rise in price, palladium investors sold US$12.2mn into the rally last week. With courts having thrown out the AMCU union’s request to stop the miners communicating directly with their employees in South Africa, an end to the prolonged strike does not appear to be getting any closer.

Key events to watch this week. China’s money supply, lending and production data will be in focus as investors watch to see the impact the government’s recent stimulus measures are having on the world’s second largest economy.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

 

For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this communication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This communication constitutes an advertisement within the meaning of Section 31 para. 2 of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG); it is not a financial analysis pursuant to Section 34b WpHG and consequently does not meet all legal requirements to warrant the objectivity of a financial analysis and is also not subject to the ban on trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Utveckling olika investeringar (15-19 feb)

Utveckling olika investeringar (15-19 feb)

Utveckling olika investeringar (15-19 feb). Veckan som gick. Veckan avslutades starkt. Dow Jones gick upp med 3,0% och S&P gick upp med 3,1% under veckan. Nasdaq utvecklades marginellt sämre och gick upp upp 2,8%.

Utvecklingen i Europa och Asien var också svagt positiv. De europeiska marknaden gick upp med 3,9% och i Asien var uppgången omkring 2%. Latinamerika utvecklades starkt och gick upp med cirka 4%. Bäst utveckling hade Australien med en utveckling om 5,4%. Sämsta landet var Japan med en oförändrad utveckling. Den bästa sektorn var koppar med en uppgång på 7,3%. Den sämsta sektorn var socker (”sugar”) med en nedgång på 1%.

De tre amerikanska ETF:erna med den bästa utvecklingen under veckan var*:

– iPath DJ AIG Copper ETN (Ticker JJC), 7,3%

– United States Gasoline (Ticker UGA),  7,1%

– Vanguard REIT (Ticker VNQ), 6,6%

De tre amerikanska ETF:erna med den sämsta utvecklingen under veckan var*:

–  United States Natural Gas (Ticker UNG) , -5,3%

–  CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (Ticker FXY), -2,1%

–  iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (Ticker FXI), -1,6%