Etikett: ECB

Promises to plans

ETF Securities Promises to plansPromises to plans

FX Weekly – Promises to plans

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange  – Promises to plans

Highlights

  • Focus on the EUR/USD will intensify next week as Trump is inaugurated and the ECB meet for the first time in 2017.
  • Longer term risks to the EUR/USD remain skewed to the downside as inflationary pressures mount in the US.
  • The EUR/GBP appears increasingly overvalued and a downward correction could be in store.

Time for action

In 2017, the investment landscape will be dominated by the ability of politicians in the US and Europe to deliver on promises of change made last year. Next week, President Elect Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th president of the US and his landmark speech will be scrutinised by market participants for signs of what proposed policy measures will take priority at the start of his four year term. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) will meet for the first time in 2017, placing market focus on the EUR/USD exchange rate which has recently rebounded from fifteen year lows. Our view is that in the short term the EUR/USD could tick modestly higher but will face technical resistance and in the longer term risks remain skewed to the downside. A better short term opportunity involving the EUR exists against the GBP, where negative sentiment has pushed the pair to expensive levels and a downward correction could be looming.

Inflation risks

The USD has lost ground so far this year as US treasury yields have moderated (down approximately 30bps*) and the market pricing of interest rate rises for 2017 has fallen from three to two. The EUR/USD has accordingly risen to around 1.064 (see Figure 1), which is near its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level*, a resistance established in December last year. With Trump expected to enact considerable fiscal stimulus measures, wage growth at the fastest rate since the recession and climbing energy prices, the risks to inflation are skewed to the upside. Over the next quarter, higher inflation risks have the potential to prompt the US Federal Reserve to pursue a more hawkish interest rate tightening cycle than is currently being expected which could see the EUR/USD fall back again towards the 1.04 level and potentially beyond.

Figure 1: US rates have moderated for now

(click to enlarge)

Brexit clarity

The EUR/GBP has recently climbed as Sterling has shown vulnerability to speculation over whether Brexit will entail an exit from the single market. Theresa May’s recent interview with Sky paid testament to this and highlighted the volatility we could expect from the currency in the coming two and a half months. However, the EUR is not insulated from its own political threats as elections in France, Netherlands and Germany this year raise the risks of a Eurozone break-up. In the near term, we believe the GBP could climb from current levels as negative speculation proves overdone and resilient economic performance continues. This dynamic could see the EUR/GBP fall back to its 50 daily moving average of 0.85, a fall of 2.8%*. Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs: Currency ETPs GBP Base ETFS Long EUR Short GBP (GBUR) ETFS Short EUR Long GBP (URGB) ETFS Long USD Short GBP (GBUS) ETFS Short USD Long GBP (USGB) USD Base ETFS Long GBP Short USD (LGBP) ETFS Short GBP Long USD (SGBP) ETFS Long EUR Short USD (LEUR) ETFS Short EUR Long USD (SEUR) EUR Base ETFS Long USD Short EUR (XBJP) ETFS Short USD Long EUR (XBJQ) ETFS Long GBP Short EUR (EUGB) ETFS Short GBP Long EUR (GBEU) 3x ETFS 3x Long USD Short EUR (EUS3) ETFS 3x Short USD Long EUR (USE3) ETFS 3x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB3) ETFS 3x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE3) ETFS 3x Long GBP Short USD (LGB3) ETFS 3x Short GBP Long USD (SGB3) ETFS 3x Long EUR Short USD (LEU3) ETFS 3x Short EUR Long USD (SEU3) ETFS 3x Long USD Short GBP (USP3) ETFS 3x Short USD Long GBP (PUS3) ETFS 3x Long EUR Short GBP (EUP3) ETFS 3x Short EUR Long GBP (SUP3) 5x ETFS 5x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB5) ETFS 5x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE5) ETFS 5x Long USD Short EUR (5CH5) ETFS 5x Short USD Long EUR (5CH6) ETFS 5x Long USD Short GBP (USP5) ETFS 5x Short USD Long GBP (PUS5) Basket ETFS Bullish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LGBB) ETFS Bearish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SGBB) ETFS Bullish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LUSB) ETFS Bearish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SUSB) ETFS Bullish EUR vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LEUB) ETFS Bearish EUR vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SEUB) The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors. The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks. Securities issued by FXL are direct, limited recourse obligations of FXL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith. The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley to determine whether Morgan Stanley’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley.

ECB’s minutes reveal concerns over Eurozone bonds scarcity

ECB’s minutes reveal concerns over Eurozone bonds scarcity

ECB’s minutes reveal concerns over Eurozone bonds scarcity. The minutes of the ECB’s December meeting, published yesterday, revealed that the increasing scarcity of high quality government bonds such as German bunds, was at the centre of the two main decisions taken by the Governing Council. Overall, the ongoing deleveraging of the public and the private sectors, coupled with the ECB’s purchases and the elevated demand for high quality Eurozone government bonds have aggravated the shortage of supply. We believe that this is a warning signal that QE in its current form has reached its practical limit in Europe. While some Eurozone governments have procrastinated in using fiscal stimulus, they will soon no longer have the choice but to implement structural reforms to support the economic recovery. Consequently, we believe the rotation from monetary to fiscal stimulus has not been fully priced into the market yet. Thus, we expect Eurozone yield curves to gradually steepen in 2017. Regarding the extension of the Asset Purchase Programme (APP), the minutes revealed that Governors debated over two options: a 6-month extension at a constant monthly pace of EUR80bn and a 9-month extension at a slower pace of EUR60bn. While the first option would have resulted in a smaller total amount of additional purchases (EUR480bn against EUR540bn for the second option), liquidity-related challenges drove the discussion toward the latter option. The first option would have necessitated an additional modification of the parameters of the programme, namely a change in the capital key – the proportion of bonds the ECB can buy from each country defined as the capital participation of the country to the ECB balance sheet. The ECB’s APP has supported bond valuations and reduced the supply of high quality bonds, making government collateral more expensive, leading daily volumes and rates in the European repo market to decline. In order to reduce these unintended consequences on the repo market, the ECB provides a securities lending programme (SLP) where the holdings of securities purchased under the Public Sector Purchase Programme are available for securities lending. The minutes revealed that the relaxation of the conditions to borrow collateral from the SLP was primarily to address the increasing scarcity of high quality bonds and collateral. Accordingly, ECB’s Governors announced in December that cash would be accepted as collateral against securities (no longer exclusively high quality bonds). Despite the marginal revisions of the parameters of the QE to smooth its implementation, the ECB’s monetary stimulus seems close to its practical limit, suggesting the Eurozone yields have reached their floor.

Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities

Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities

Morgane Delledonne joined ETF Securities as Fixed Income Strategist in 2016. Morgane has an extensive experience in Monetary policy, Fixed Income Markets and Macroeconomics gained at the French Treasury’s Office in Washington DC and most recently in her role as Macroeconomist and Strategist at Pictet&Cie in Geneva. Morgane holds a Bachelor of Applied Mathematics from the University of Nice Sophia Antipolis (France), a Master of Economics and Finance Engineering and a Master of Economic Diagnosis from the University of Paris Dauphine (France).

The ECB: To infinity and beyond?

The ECB: To infinity and beyond?

Co-author: Martin Arnold – FX & Macro Strategist The ECB: To infinity and beyond?

We believe the ECB decision to extend its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) while reducing the monthly amount by EUR20bn is extremely prudent and forward looking, reflecting rising inflation risks on the back of higher oil prices and the increasing prospect of higher fiscal spending next year. What’s more we believe the ECB is applying a precautionary approach to the potential inflationist risks associated to the rise of populist parties in Europe.With over 70% (by GDP) of the Eurozone having scheduled elections in 2017/18, political uncertainty is likely to keep gains for the Euro limited. Such political uncertainty, and in the absence of genuine economic reform, is also likely to force the ECB to do more in terms of yield curve management in order to buttress failing banks.

Both external and internal factors have been exerting pressures on the ECB to extend its quantitative easing. While the bond rout that followed the victory of Trump led more Eurozone government bond yields to exceed the deposit facility rate (-0.4%) – the minimum rate to be eligible for the ECB’s APP – increasing the amount of bonds available for purchase, the changes over the APP technical aspects (namely, widening the maturity range from 2yr-30yr to 1yr-30yr and accepting bonds yielding below the deposit rate) reveal the ECB’s concern that the bond rout could reverse.

After extending its QE policy until December 2017 and broadening the base of assets the central bank can buy, the ECB has further enhanced its commitment to supporting growth in order to engender inflationary pressures. Although the inflation picture has improved, there is significant uncertainty, and the ECB is likely to continue to use different stimulus measures to help boost demand, putting further downward pressure on the Euro.

Although late to the QE party, the ECB has shown a strong desire to strengthen the transmission mechanism that would allow the ‘easy money’ to get to the real economy, by buttressing bank balance sheets. In this way, yield curve targeting, like the Bank of Japan can further support bank balance sheets by steepening yield curves, and help funding get to the areas of the economy that need it most.


(click to enlarge)

Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities

Morgane Delledonne joined ETF Securities as Fixed Income Strategist in 2016. Morgane has an extensive experience in Monetary policy, Fixed Income Markets and Macroeconomics gained at the French Treasury’s Office in Washington DC and most recently in her role as Macroeconomist and Strategist at Pictet&Cie in Geneva. Morgane holds a Bachelor of Applied Mathematics from the University of Nice Sophia Antipolis (France), a Master of Economics and Finance Engineering and a Master of Economic Diagnosis from the University of Paris Dauphine (France).

Grekiska obligationer kan snart ingå i ECBs återköpsprogram

Grekiska obligationer kan snart ingå i ECBs återköpsprogram

ECB accepterar grekiska obligationer som säkerhet men de ingår inte i den europeiska centralbankens återköpsprogram. Ett nytt avtal under slutet av året kan emellertid komma att ändra på detta. Finansministrarna anser att den grekiska statsskulden är stabil, men IMF håller inte med.

ECB inte omfattar grekiska obligationer i sin statsobligationsköpsoperation. Det finns emellertid diskussioner kring detta och det är möjligt att de grekiska obligationerna redan från början av 2017 kommer att ingå i ECBs återköpsprogram.

Grekland vice finansminister Chouliarakis berättade för EU-parlamentet att ett avtal är möjligt att uppnå redan före slutet av årets utgång. Det finns två utmanande frågor: arbetsmarknadsreformerna och det primära budgetmålet.

Reformer på arbetsmarknaden omfattar kollektiva förhandlingar och uppsägningar, liksom regler för stridsåtgärder. De kollektiva förhandlingarna bröt samman efter reformerna 2012.

I maj enades den grekiska regeringen att lägga budget med ett primärt budgetöverskott (exklusive kostnader för skulden) på 3,5 procent av landets BNP. Eurogruppen av EMUs finansministrar upprepade vikten av detta avtal och ville att målet om 3,5 % upprätthålls efter 2018. Det är inte så att Grekland inte vill behålla ett så pass stort primär överskott på obestämd, all ekonomisk litteratur antyder också att det inte särskilt troligt eller effektiv. Någon gång efter 2018, Grekland vill minska det primära överskottsmålet till 2,5 % (med en minskning på 1 % som ska användas för att sänka skatterna) och därefter till 2 % på lång sikt. De europeiska finansministrarna fortsätter emellertid att kräva med av Grekland. De uppmanade premiärminister Tsipras att anta ”allvarliga” reformer. Det är emellertid Greklands finansminister, inte den grekiska regeringen som är det mest formidabla hindret för IMFs deltagande.

Finansministrarna erbjöd några redovisningsknep för att minska Greklands sammanlagda skuld med 20 procentenheter (i förhållande till BNP) till 2060. Dessa åtgärder inkluderar lättnader i landets återbetalningsplan, avstå från en kupong straff, och byta skulder för att minska ränterisker.

Otillräckliga åtgärder

IMF säger att dessa åtgärder är otillräckliga för att sätta Greklands skuld på en hållbar bana. Det har gjort gällande att de finanspolitiska målen inte är realistiskt. Finansministrarna har uteslutit nominella minskningar i Grekland skyldigheter, men IMF kräver mätbara och konkreta skuldlättnader för Grekland. Eftersom detta inte har tillkommit, är det osannolikt att IMF kommer att få delta i en ny lånefacilitet för Grekland.

Ett nytt avtal skulle erkänna de framsteg Grekland gör och understryker åtagandet att ytterligare åtgärder. Avtalet skulle underförstått förutsätta att den grekiska statsskulden är hållbar. Detta är vad ECB behöver höra innan den europeiska centralbanken kan låta de grekiska obligationerna ingå i ECBs QE verksamhet.

Det skulle öka förtroendet att ECB kommer att köpa grekiska obligationer om IMF finner Greklands skuld hållbar. Med oenighet mellan finansministrarnas bedömning och IMF, befinner sig ECB i en svår situation. Även om det bedriver egen hållbarhetsbedömning, som säger att det kommer att göra, kommer det att bli svårt att åsidosätta finansministrarna.

ECB redan accepterar grekiska obligationer som säkerhet för lån till grekiska banker. Det har också köpt EFSF obligationer från grekiska banker under tillgångsköpsprogram. Att köpa grekiska obligationer är ett inkrementellt steg. Beloppen kommer att vara små. Det borde inte vara förvånande om ECBs återköpsprogram omfattar grekiska obligationer i slutet av Q1 2017.

Limited prospect for Eurozone bond gains amid political uncertainty

Limited prospect for Eurozone bond gains amid political uncertainty

ETF Securities – Limited prospect for Eurozone bond gains amid political uncertainty

Highlights

  • The rise of populism in the Eurozone could weigh on the ECB’s Staff forecasts and force the ECB to extend its asset purchase programme (APP) beyond March 2017 at its December meeting.
  • Countries with the highest level of political uncertainty – France, Austria and Italy – have been hit the strongest by the global bond rout since September.
  • We believe the ECB could ultimately opt for yield-targeting if political uncertainty markedly alters the financial conditions in the Eurozone.

Download the complete report

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities’ products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.