Europas finansmarknad hoppade fredag efter att den europeiska centralbankens styrelseledamot Benoit Coeure antydde att en annan runda billiga fleråriga lån till banker kunde vara på gång. Detta gynnar de börshandlade fonder som satsar på denna sektor.
IShares MSCI Europe Financials ETF (NYSEArca: EUFN), som ger en målinriktad satsning på europeiska finansiella företag, steg 2,3% fredag. Samtidigt var den bredare Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (NYSEArca: VGK) och iShares MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEArca: EZU), som båda innehåller stora vikter mot det finansiella segmentet, 1,4 respektive 1,8 procent högre.
Förstärkning av euroområdets aktier och i synnerhet banksegmentet signalerade ECBs Coeure en ny riktade långfristig refinansieringstransaktion. Det kan också betyda att TLTRO skulle kunna vara på väg efter svaga ekonomiska data och osäkerhet över Brexit och globala handelsspänningar gav upphov till förväntningar om att ECB skulle kunna införa en ny runda stimulansåtgärder under de närmaste månaderna.
Finansieringsproblem
Spekulationer fick fart efter att Coeure sade att centralbanken är övertygad över tanken på att utfärda ett nytt flerårigt billigt lån till banker. Detta eftersom vissa länder står inför en återbetalning nästa år när de tidigare lånen måste betalas tillbaka. Till exempel har italienska banker och andra sydeuropeiska länder i synnerhet varit på investerarnas sinnen på grund av finansieringsproblem.
Potentialen för ECB-stimulans stötte upp Europas finansmarknad efter att segmentet drabbades av en långvarig kampanj av negativa räntor. Dessutom har de italienska marknaderna, som har varit särskilt undertryckta över försämringstillväxt, andats lättnadssuger.
”För italienska banker är det helt avgörande att det finns en diskussion om TLTROs”, säger Daniel Lenz, strategistrateg vid DZ Bank, till Reuters. Han hänvisade till riktade refinansieringstransaktioner på lång sikt – det officiella namnet på ECB: s senaste lånepaket till banker.
”De sydeuropeiska bankerna har refinansierat sig på minus 40 punkter och om de måste refinansiera vid halv swaps plus 200, skulle det göra en stor skillnad i finansiering. Det är viktigt för dem att få tillgång till billig likviditet, ”tillade han.
European bond yields are hovering near the lowest levels in history, but we believe it is not a bubble in the traditional sense. Yields are artificially low, driven by extraordinary levels of stimulus from the ECB. In this framework, we would characterise the situation as a bond balloon, not a bond bubble.
The critical difference between a balloon and a bubble is what happens at the end: central bankers are keen to deflate the balloon, rather than burst the bubble. The gradual deflation of the bond balloon is a key aspect of what policymakers want to achieve with the unwinding of asset purchase programs. As a result, communication is crucial to forming investor expectations about the path for tighter monetary policy.
We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to be guarded and very careful regarding its comments about unwinding stimulus at the upcoming policy meeting. We feel that the market has already largely priced in the tapering of the central bank’s bond purchasing programme. As a result, while there could be a brief spike higher for the Euro, it will be temporary. We feel FX markets are continuing to underestimate the cautiousness of the ECB in changing its policy settings. Investors should be wary, as ECB policymakers are already concerned about the rise in the Euro.
At the last meeting policymakers expressed concern ‘about the risk of the exchange rate overshooting in the future’. The Euro has moved higher since and with futures market positioning at the highest level on record, there are downside risks for the Euro against the Pound. The long EUR short GBP trade is overcrowded and currency pair could move back toward more historically average levels around 1.11 if the ECB’s rhetoric at this week’s meeting suggests a pragmatic and gradual approach to paring its asset purchases. If ECB President Draghi continues the narrative from last meeting and doesn’t discuss the issue at all, the negative Euro reaction could be very sudden and sharp. Further downside, toward 1.17 in the coming year is likely as clarity around Brexit negotiations is gleaned.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
Draghi in no hurry to spook the market, just the Euro
Draghi in no hurry to spook the market, just the Euro. European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi wants to engineer a smooth transition away from ultra stimulative monetary policy…but not too soon, because inflationary forces remain depressed. The problem is the strength of the Euro, which further depresses inflation. The ECB wants a weaker Euro…
At the last ECB press conference, Draghi commented that there were ‘two…observations of this nature ([on] the link between the asset purchase programme and the inflation convergence), but there wasn’t any discussion…on normalisation’. This very measured language highlights the mindset of policymakers: cautious to ensure that inflation and wage gains are gaining a solid foothold. Inflation across the Eurozone was flat in June, contributing to a 1.3% annual growth over the past year. We must remember the mistake that the ECB made in raising rates in 2011, only to have to cut rates before year-end 2011.
In this way, the ECB remains conservative with their communication on the need for tapering, with President Draghi noting that ‘discussions should happen in the fall’ because ‘we are not there yet’ regarding inflation and price stability. President Draghi does not want a taper tantrum to push borrowing costs sharply higher. But a weaker Euro would be of assistance, both for lifting inflationary forces and for boosting economic demand.
The market has misjudged the reticence of the ECB
We feel that the market has misjudged the reticence of the ECB and that confidence in aggressive tapering in coming months misguided. In turn we feel the Euro bounce during the press conference will be transitory. Indeed, the long Euro trade is overcrowded, with futures market positioning at the highest level in over six years. In the face of weak inflation pressure, there are downside risks for the Euro. Meanwhile, option pricing shows that optimism, albeit trending higher, is much more subdued than within the futures market.
As a result, we continue to expect the near-term Euro strength to falter and to move lower until a more urgent need for tighter monetary policy for the Eurozone becomes a more strongly voiced position.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
ETF Securities – ECB rule bending to pressure the Euro
Highlights
Markets have repriced the Euro lower, as the chance for a populist Presidential win from Le Pen’s Front Nationale (FN) has increased in recent weeks.
The Euro, beset by political uncertainty, has been unable to benefit from the uptick in the underlying economic environment and an improvement in investor positioning in the futures market.
Although European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing (QE) program appears at its limit, the central bank appears ready to deviate from its ‘capital key’ and buy bonds from more heavily indebted nations, in turn putting further pressure on the Euro later in 2017.
Politics repricing the Euro
Analysts have repriced consensus forecasts lower for the EUR/USD during 2017, as political uncertainty threatens to break-up the Eurozone. At the end of 2016, consensus forecasts centred around 1.07 by end Q1 2017, compared to just 1.04 currently. We expect that the Euro should end Q1 around 1.08 as political uncertainty fades.
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The Euro has been battered by political uncertainty and has been unable to benefit from the improvement in the underlying economic environment. The Bloomberg Eurozone Economic Surprise Index suggests that the Euro could, in the absence of the ECB’s QE activities and the current uncertainty surrounding the political environment, be significantly higher against the USD.
Although populism and an increasingly insular voter attitude is a distinct similarity between the US and the Eurozone, the result for the currency could be a stark contrast. After vowing to bring back the French Franc, the potential for FN’s Le Pen to win the French election could prompt the Euro to move to parity against the US Dollar, a contrasting result compared to the US Dollar strength after the Trump Presidential victory. Nonetheless, EUR/USD parity on the back of a Le Pen victory is not our base case.
Economics drives policy differences
There are also other differences on an economic level between the US and Europe: unemployment across the Eurozone remains elevated, and excess spare capacity is likely to keep wage growth muted for some time. With excess labour market capacity, there is unlikely to be the pressure on core inflation that we expect to occur in the US later in 2017.
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However, inflation expectations have been rising on a global basis. The unwind of oil price effects has pushed headline prices higher, even beyond our bullish view and well beyond consensus expectations for the Eurozone. Eurozone inflation reached the highest level since March 2013, and now is in line with the ‘close to or below’ the 2.0% ECB target. Importantly inflation is unlikely to spike above the central bank’s target in coming months, and the ECB will ‘look through recent upturns in headline inflation’.
ECB nearing its limit
While the US Federal Reserve is taking a hawkish approach, the ECB is firmly in accommodative support mode with monetary policy.
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The ECB’s balance sheet has never been larger. However, the ECB is nearing the limit of its QE activities, with growth in its balance sheet fading. However, there are signs that the central bank could move outside the current scope of the asset purchase scheme to once again boost its balance sheet and the Eurozone money supply.
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Although the Euro should benefit if the ECB was able to cease its bond buying without any significant dislocations in interest rate markets by year-end, the potential for fresh policy pressure has weighed on the common currency.
The ECB’s latest Account of the monetary policy meeting noted the potential for the central bank to make ‘limited and temporary deviations’ from its capital key. This suggests the possibility of moving away from a broad GDP based bond buying scheme towards a debt weighted scheme. Such a move would advantage more heavily indebted nations such as Italy, but pressure the Euro in H2 2017.
What are markets pricing?
Futures market positioning has rebounded from extremely depressed levels, but investors remain net short of the Euro. However, the Euro is more depressed than what the historical relationship indicates. In contrast, options market pricing is highlighting the Euro is expected to be the second worst performer against the USD in the G10. Options pricing is the most pessimistic about the Euro’s valuation since June 2016.
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We expect the Euro to strengthen to around 1.08 in coming months as it becomes more apparent that Le Pen’s FN party is unlikely to win the French Presidency. Despite this volatility will remain, and further ECB asset purchases and ‘rule bending’ could see the Euro move back toward current levels in H2 2017.
Important Information
The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities’ products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.
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Europas börser kan gå bättre än den amerikanska aktiemarknaden
De börshandlade fonder som spårar utvecklingen av Europas börser började visa tecken på återhämtning i slutet av 2016, och en del marknadsbedömare tror Europas aktiemarknader kan komma att göra en comeback under 2017.
Den Europeiska centralbanken (ECB) har varit ett problem för investerare, men ECB konstaterade nyligen att banken inte kommer upphöra med sina kvantitativa lättnader, åtminstone inte på kort sikt. Många marknadsbedömare hävdade att ECB även skulle kunna utvidga sitt obligationsinköpsprogram för att ytterligare stödja inflationen. ECB som redan har spenderat mer än en biljon euro på att köper statsobligationer, sänkte nyligen sin styrränta till noll och antog en negativ inlåningsränta.
Många investerare gör bedömningen att amerikanska Federal Reserve, FED, kommer att höja räntan flera gånger under 2017, något som ytterligare har stärkt den . Följaktligen förväntar sig investerarna en förbättrad ekonomi i euroområdet men med en svagare valuta. Den som delar denna uppfattning bör överväga en investering i en valutasäkrad ETF vid exponering mot Europa.
Bland de börshandlade fonder som skulle kunna utgöra alternativ finns till exempel Deutsche Bank db X-trackers MSCI EMU Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEArca: DBEZ), iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEArca: HEZU) och WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity ETF (NYSEArca: HEDJ). Dessa ETFer ger exponering mot Europas börser men försöker minska de negativa effekterna av en deprecierande Euro. En försvagad euro minskar vanligen effekterna på avkastningen på utländska värdepapper när omvandlas tillbaka till en starkare dollar eller starkare kronor.
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, vd för portföljstrategi och allokering på Goldman Sachs i London hävdar att Stoxx Europe 600 Index kommer att ge en värdeökning om åtta procent inklusive direktavkastning under 2017. Han säger att det är en svagare euro, en stark global tillväxt samt ett oljepris som återhämtar sig som kommer att bidra till uppgången på Europas börser. Han säger vidare att det amerikanska referensindexet S&P 500 kommer att backa med fyra (4) procent som en effekt av att den ekonomiska tillväxten i USA bleknar och dämpar det aktierally vi vant oss vid att se.
Gynnsam penningpolitik från ECB
En gynnsam penningpolitik från den Europeiska centralbanken och en förbättrad ekonomisk aktivitet i Eurozonen skulle kunna gynna den som väljer en strategi som omfattar en valutasäkrad börshandlad fond.
Politisk instabilitet i Europa, med val i Frankrike, Tysklandoch Nederländerna, är en faktor investerare måste vara uppmärksama på.
Bankerna är bland de sektorer Goldman rekommenderar i Europa i år, eftersom de gynnas av en brantare avkastningskurva. Investerare kan köpa bankaktier att säkra sina portföljer känslighet för högre priser säger Mueller-Glissmann.
Europa Euro Stoxx 50
STOXX Europe 50 är en aktieindex av europeiska aktier designade av STOXX Ltd., en indexleverantör som ägs av Deutsche Börse Group och SIX Group. Indexet infördes i februari 1998.
STOXX Europe 50 index är en blue-chip representation av de ledande företagen i Europa som täcker nästan 50 procent av den fria-float börsvärdet på den europeiska aktiemarknaden. Indexet omfattar 50 aktier från 18 europeiska länder: Österrike, Belgien, Tjeckien, Danmark, Finland, Frankrike, Tyskland, Grekland, Irland, Italien, Luxemburg, Nederländerna, Norge, Portugal, Spanien, Sverige, Schweiz och Storbritannien.
