Etikett: ETFS

Agricultural ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

Agricultural ETPs took the lion’s share of flows ETF SecuritiesAgricultural ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Agricultural ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

Highlight

  • Agricultural ETPs garner the highest inflows in 9 years last week
  • Gold ETPs extend outflows for the fifth week in a row
  • Broad commodity basket ETPs face redemptions for the third week in a row

Agricultural ETPs garner the highest inflows since October 2009. Since the start of the year, agricultural commodities led by wheat, corn, cotton and soybeans have been spearheading gains across the commodity complex owing to supportive fundamentals helped by unexpected extreme weather conditions. In the case of wheat, severe hot and dry weather conditions that the main growing regions have experienced have driven concerns about lower global wheat production. According to the latest monthly July report released by the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), international 2018/19 wheat supplies are forecasted to fall 9.3mn tons owing to lower production, which would mark the smallest supply in 3 years.

Last week, wheat prices also caught a tailwind subsequent to news that the Ukrainian Ministry was contemplating limiting the amount of milling wheat the country exports. In the case of corn, a positive demand story has been supporting prices high. After 5 years of surpluses, the corn market is expected to be in a deficit as consumption outpaces supply, driving corn stocks to a six-year low of 152 million tons, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Meanwhile, the soybean market appears to be caught in the crossfires of the trade spat between the US and China. Despite being caught in this trade spat, concerns about drier conditions and diminishing soil moisture levels at an important time for bean development continue to support the soybean market higher. The cotton market also seems to be profiting from the USDA’s recent estimates that revised global supply downward and raised consumption estimates higher. Despite the ongoing trade frictions, as the fundamental outlook for most agricultural commodities improves, investors appear to be taking exposure via diversified agricultural commodity baskets.

Gold ETPs extend outflows for the fifth week in a row. Gold prices continued to face a number of headwinds last week, amidst the stronger US Dollar, the more optimistic outlook on the US economy at the Federal Reserve meeting and the positive non-farm payroll report in the US. Speculative positioning on gold futures reached a net short exposure of 41,987 contracts, as of 31 July 2018, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an oversold territory in our opinion and we expect a turnaround in gold prices to follow.

Broad commodity basket ETPs face redemptions for the third week in a row as the trade spat intensifies. The retaliatory tariff cycle between the US and China showed no signs of abating last week. Beijing confirmed it had prepared a list of US$60Bn worth of US products on which it would impose tariffs if the Trump administration did not dial back on its threat to hike tariffs on US$200Bn of Chinese products. Commodities prices continued to get whipsawed as sentiment towards the complex weakened.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Oil ETP inflows continue amid supply disruptions

Oil ETP inflows continue amid supply disruptions

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Oil ETP inflows continue amid supply disruptions

Highlight

  • Long oil ETPs see a third consecutive week of inflows as supply disruptions extend price gains
  • Gold outflows continue, albeit at a reduced pace
  • Profit-taking appears to have driven the largest cotton ETP outflow seen since 2016

Long oil ETPs see a third consecutive week of inflows as supply disruptions extend price gains. These three weeks of inflows mark the longest period of sustained inflows since June 2017. There were US$8.6mn of inflows last week following a 2.4% gain in oil prices. While prior week inflows appeared to be driven by bargain-hunting as prices fell, last week, oil prices rose in reaction to supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended all oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait following attacks on two crude-carrying vessels by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Close to 8% of global maritime oil trade goes through the Bab el- Mandab choke point (just under 5% of global oil and liquid fuels supply). A prolonged disruption could tighten supplies. Most exports from the Persian Gulf destined to travel through the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline (another important choke point), and eventually to the European markets, pass through the Bab el-Mandab. A diversion requires the oil tankers to travel around the Southern tip of Africa, adding to cost. That comes at a time when heavy crudes from Canada and Venezuela are also experiencing outages. The internationally-focused Brent oil benchmark experienced a stronger price reaction than the US-focused WTI oil benchmark.

Gold outflows continue, albeit at a reduced pace. Last week there were US$41.7mn outflows from gold ETPs, marking the third consecutive week of outflows. However, it was the first week in three that we saw outflows of less than US$100mn. The outflows from ETPs are in line with declining speculative positioning in the gold futures market.

Gold has lost 5.8% since the beginning of this year despite a strong start to 2018. We believe the price decline is overdone. Although interest rates are likely to rise and the US Dollar could appreciate (typically gold price negative events), we believe that these risks are more than priced in. On the contrary, elevated geopolitical risks (which are typically gold price positive) seem not be sufficiently priced into gold. Our base case scenario for gold is to rise to US$1307/oz by mid- 2019 (see Gold Outlook June 2018), which presents a 7% upside from today’s levels.

Profit-taking appears to have driven the largest cotton ETP outflow seen since 2016. Cotton has been the outperformer in the agricultural commodity space, having risen 14% since the beginning of this year. The US Department of Agriculture has recently revised downward global supply prospects and increased consumption forecasts. Although cotton is affected by Chinese tariffs on the US, Vietnam’s growing importance in cotton imports could soften the blow on cotton demand. Vietnam is the leading destination for US cotton exports, as well as a large yarn producer, which appears to be displacing China’s domestic yarn production (exports of yarn from Vietnam to China have increased five-fold since 2012/13). Outflows of US$10.6mn from cotton ETPs are likely to be profit-taking on recent gains.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Gold ETPs took the lion’s share of outflows

Gold ETPs took the lion’s share of outflows

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Gold ETPs took the lion’s share of outflows

Highlight

  • Gold can’t seem to find a floor
  • Strong copper fundamentals appear to defy trade war threats
  • Falling nickel prices continue to attract bargain hunters

Gold can’t seem to find a floor. Gold ETP outflows surged last week by US$119.7mn, marking the third consecutive week of outflows as gold prices shed 0.81% last week, declining to US$1231.1. We believe the testimony of Fed Chair Powell before the US Senate had a strong role to play in gold’s weak price performance last week. As his optimistic outlook on the US economy cemented the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike trajectory for the rest of 2018 supporting the US dollar higher. Since the start 2018, the stronger US dollar (up 3.17%) amidst the rising rate environment in the US, has underpinned the weakness of gold prices (down 6.62%). Last week, Larry Kudlow the US president’s economic adviser, blamed the Chinese President Xi Jinping for stalling of trade dispute talks between the two nations. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs retaliated aggressively, by announcing that although it did not want a trade war, it was not afraid of one either. In the absence of any productive negotiation, the international trade wars seem to be intensifying and if this trend were to continue we expect inflation to accelerate at the cost of decelerating economic activity, which should favour gold.

According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positioning on gold futures are currently 1x standard deviation (as on 13 July 2018) below their 5-year average, highlighting the extent of the negative sentiment towards the yellow metal. We expect, gold prices to stage a recovery over the second half of this year.

Strong copper fundamentals appear to defy trade war threats as copper ETP inflows worth US$26.5mn rose to their highest level in 14 weeks. Last week, Chinese economic growth slowed fractionally to 6.7% year-on-year compared to 6.8% last year.

However monthly data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was mixed with industrial production and investment slowing but retail sales and house price growth higher. As a historically well-regarded barometer of world economic health, copper prices have been caught in the cross hairs of trade wars and slowing momentum from Chinese growth evident from the price slide over the past 6 consecutive weeks to US$6122.5 (as on 20 July 2018). However optimism over the red metals’ strong fundamentals helped overcome the negative sentiment emanating from the trade wars as inflows into copper ETPs rose over the past two weeks.

Failing collective wage negotiations at BHP’s Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper mine, highlight the risks to copper’s current supply levels. Discussions are set to continue as the current collective agreement expires at the end of the month. As both sides have stated their desire to reach an agreement, a strike is a less likely however prices are likely to remain on tender hooks until we reach an agreement.

Nickel ETP inflows garner momentum for the fourth week in a row as bargain hunters chase falling prices. Nickel prices suffered a sharp decline -3.18% last week with prices nearing a 3-month low on the back of news that the Chinese government is considering reducing incentives for buying electric cars from next year.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Fem börshandlade fonder som ger exponering mot guld

Fem börshandlade fonder som ger exponering mot guld

Guld fortsätter att attrahera investerare, och det finns gott om människor som vill äga denna ädelmetall Det går att få en position i guld genom börshandlade fonder som ger exponering mot guld. I denna artikel har vi listat fem stycken som förvaltas av guldexperter, vilket ger investerarna en bättre chans att tjäna pengar på denna ädelmetall än vad de själva skulle ha kunnat göra. Glöm bara inte bort att guldpriset alltid kommer att påverka en ETF som investerar i guld.

De fem börshandlade fonder som vi tittar på har valts ut på baserat på deras fondförmögenhet. Ingen av dem betalar utdelning. Läs beskrivningarna noggrant, eftersom var och en av dessa ETF har olika typer av förvaltningskostnader.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

Denna ETF investerar i guldtackor. Den enda gången GLD säljer dessa är om denna börshandlade fond måste betala kostnader och hantera inlösen av fondandelar. Tack vare sitt direkta ägande av guldtackor är denna ETF extremt känsligt för förändringar i guldpriset och följer guldkursen mycket noggrant.

Denna ETF har en högre andel guld per andel än någon av sina konkurrenter eftersom dessa inte köper fysiskt guld.

Genomsnittlig volym: 7.5 miljoner

Förvaltat kapital: $34.9 miljarder dollar

Förvaltningskostnad: 0.40%

iShares Gold Trust (IUA)

Detta är en annan ETF som köper fysiskt guld. Det betyder att denna börshandlade fond har kostnader för transport, lagring och försäkring av guld. IAU förvarar sitt guld i valv utspridda runt jorden. Intressant nog försöker fonden inte dra nytta av guldet genom att sälja det när priset går upp. Istället anser fondförvaltare att IAU är ett sätt för investerare att köpa och hålla guldtackor. Detta gör fonden väldigt stabil

På grund av de låga kostnaderna för fonden har investerare insett att IUA är ett billigt sätt att köpa och hantera guld på ett sätt som de inte kan göra själva.

Genomsnittlig volym: 8.8 miljoner

Förvaltat kapital: $11.12 miljarder dollar

Förvaltningskostnad: 0.25%

ETFS Physical Swiss Gold (SGOL)

ETF Securities SGOL lagrar sitt guld i ett valv i Zürich. Ägare av den börshandlade fondens andelar äger del av det guldet. Denna fond är väldigt likvid, vilket innebär att du enkelt kan köpa och sälja andelarna. Detta gör att du kan ta vinst effektivt eller köpa till andelar när du vill agera när kursen faller. Den primära skillnaden mellan SGOL och andra fonder som äger fysiskt guld är att SGOL lagrar sitt guld uteslutande i schweiziska valv.

Genomsnittlig volym: 33,309 stycken

Net Assets: $1.08 miljarder dollar

Förvaltningskostnad: 0.39%

PowerShares DB Gold ETF (DGL)

DGL köper inte guld. Den spårar DBIQ Optimal Return Gold Index Excess Return. Fonden gör detta genom att köpa terminer. Denna ETFs förvaltare måste ständigt bekämpa contango, vilket är en situation där terminsavtalet är högre än det framtida spotpriset på guld. Investerare förlorar pengar eftersom terminsavtalet måste justeras nedåt för att matcha spotpriset

Genomsnittlig volym: 68,729 stycken

Förvaltat kapital: 191,93 MUSD

Förvaltningskostnad: 0.75%

VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ)

OUNZ köper fysiskt guld. Den unika egenskapen hos denna börshandlade fond är att investerare kan lösa in sina aktier och få verkligt guld. Investerare kan lösa in så lite som en troy ounce. När investerare löser in sina andelar måste de betala en avgift för att ta bort guldet. Avgiften kan vara per ounce eller en minimiavgift.

Genomsnittlig volym: 67,459 stycken

Förvaltningskostnad: 0.40%

Guld måste alltid betraktas som en spekulativ investering. Investerare brukar välja ETFer att sprida risk bland flera tillgångar. Vissa av dessa medel investerar emellertid endast i guld, så vinster eller förluster i dessa fall är knutna direkt till priset på guld.

Guldpriset

Investors appear to rotate from gold to silver ETPs

Investors appear to rotate from gold to silver ETPs

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Investors appear to rotate from gold to silver ETPs

Highlights

  • Silver ETPs receive highest weekly inflows since January 2015.
  • Equity contrarians looking to buy Italian ETFs.
  • Long crude oil ETPs saw US$45mn outflows as WTI oil declined the most in 10 weeks.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Silver ETPs receive highest weekly inflows since January 2015. Silver’s underperformance relative to gold has been correcting in recent weeks. The gold-to-silver ratio has declined to 78 on 25th May from a 2-year high of 82 reached in April. While gold remains under pressure from a rising interest rate environment in the US, silver has the potential to leverage off its industrial’s traits. With global purchasing managers indices seeing improvement in the start Q2, the outlook for industrial demand for silver is looking good. Silver had been in a supply deficit in since 2013 and the lack of capital expenditure in mines in recent years its likely to see that supply deficit persist. Growing demand from electronics (in particular in cars) and photovoltaics bodes well for the metal. Long silver ETPs saw US$97.3mn of inflows last week. Gold ETPs on the other hand saw outflows. Despite gold seeing gains toward the end of the week after the US-North Korea-South Korea summit experienced further turbulence, gold ETPs saw US$63.5mn outflows during the week as gold prices were predominantly falling.

Equity contrarians looking to buy Italian ETFs. The forming of an all-populist coalition government in Italy spooked the market and the FTSE MIB declined a good 4.5% last week. Prior to the events that caused further turmoil over the weekend, ETF investors appear to have sensed a buying opportunity. US$8.2mn of inflows into long FTSE MIB ETFs were the highest since July 2016.

Sugar ETPs saw largest outflows since July 2015 as investors appear to take profit. Sugar prices rose 7% last week as the market reassessed the extent of global over-supply. After a bumper cane crop (and strong crush thereafter), the market was conditioned to think that India would flood the market with high levels of exports. But it appears that India is happy to hold a larger inventory this year. At the same time, less favourable weather is likely to reduce supplies from Brazil and relatively strong oil prices are likely to see a higher amount of cane be diverted to ethanol production rather than sugar. Long sugar ETPs saw US$8.5mn of outflows last week as investors appeared to take profit on the recent price increase.

Investors appear to profit-take on industrial metals. Broad industrial metal prices have risen 1.5% after in the past month, after a period of decline. Investors appear to have taken profit on these moves. US$16.6mn of outflows last week were the highest in eight weeks. While the fundamentals on industrial metals remain supportive, near-term headwinds from an appreciating US Dollar could cap price gains.

Long crude oil ETPs saw US$45mn outflows as WTI oil declined the most in 10 weeks. WTI oil prices fell 5% last week as OPEC and Russia signalled they are ready to increase supply. It is not clear by how much they will increase production or to what extent the 14 member group (and 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the voluntary production adjustments) even agree with reducing production curbs. We expect more clarity after the 174th OPEC meeting scheduled on 22nd June.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.