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Brexit dominated ETP flows last Friday

Brexit dominated ETP flows last Friday – Weekly Flows Analysis

Investors frantically purchase Gold ETPs after Britain delivered a shock vote to leave the European Union with inflows of US$201m on Friday alone.
US$180mn redemption in Short GBP ETPs following the vote.
Long crude oil ETPs experienced limited outflows, whilst oil prices settled 5% lower on Friday.

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Total outflows into Gold ETPs for the week totalled US$62m highlighting the relief rally at the beginning of the week leading to Gold outflows. However, after the shock Brexit vote investors reversed their positions and purchased safe haven assets with inflows into gold ETPs totalling US$201m for Friday alone.

The gold price gained 4.2% on Friday to around US$1,316 per troy ounce, after Britain delivered a shock vote to leave the European Union, sending investors scurrying for protection in bullion and other assets perceived as lower risk. Other precious metals such as silver and platinum gained 4.3% and 2.5%, respectively on Friday. Prior to the vote, precious metals only received a total US$47mn as investors saw the odds for a Brexit as low. We believe that risk-off sentiment will persist until a clear withdrawal plan from the European Union is set out.

Long crude oil saw outflows of US$7.1mn. Oil prices settled 5% lower after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union spurred massive risk aversion. The losses were much smaller for the week as a whole, with Brent down 1.5%and U.S. crude 0.7%. Investors paid little heed to data on Friday showing the US oil rig count fell by seven last week, the first weekly reduction in 4 weeks. We see the Brent fair value of US$55 per barrel at the year-end 2016, reflecting the 75th percentile of the crude production cost-curve, where supply-demand responses occur.

Last Friday Short GBP ETPs saw about US$180mn after Britain’s vote to leave the European Union. The British Pound fell 8.05% against US dollar to 1.368 while it fell 5.75% against Euro to 1.232 on Friday. Investors cut short GBP ETP positions at fastest rate in nearly two years. During the week, investors withdrew US$25.4mn from short GBP ETPs. Meanwhile, the EU referendum decision also prompted USD outflows, as the chances for a US rate hike declined. Outflows from Long US Dollar ETPs totalled US$25.2mn, the largest in 12 months.

Key events to watch this week. Investors will be waiting for the “Leave” campaign to provide a framework on UK withdrawal from the EU. On the other hand, the debate over the “Brexit” vote and the possibility of a second referendum could continue to fuel market uncertainty. Also this week, the Eurozone countries will publish consumer confidence index as well as a series of CPI inflation data.

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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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EU Referendum: investors vs gamblers

EU Referendum: investors vs gamblers. Brexit. According to some recent polling evidence, the British public has now turned toward voting to leave the European Union. We look at what investors vs gamblers are really thinking…we follow the money.

Following the real money seems like a better predictor of the referendum result than extrapolating surveys when the ‘don’t know’ voters (of which there is around 10% of polling surveys) have such a significant impact on the final outcome. Although the FT reports that the ‘Leave’ camp has the upper hand over the ‘Remain’ camp (by 3 percentage points on average), the ‘don’t knows’ are critical to the result and evidence suggests they tend toward the status quo.

Investors vs Gamblers

Gambling flows on betting website Betfair indicates that the vast majority (around 80% of gambling funds) are betting on Britain remaining inside the EU. Somewhat counter-intuitively, this is in contrast to investor flows into ETPs, which shows that 85% of total British Pound ETP funds are being deposited into products tracking short GBP positions. Although not strictly comparable, investment flows are showing a distinctly counter trend from gambling. We feel that the difference represents investors hedging potential losses in other asset classes that could be sustained if the referendum were to go the way of the ‘leave’ camp. Investment hedging is pragmatic and does not represent a underlying view that that Britain will leave the EU, in our opinion.

That being said, our base case remains that Britain will vote to remain inside the EU and that such a result is a positive one for the UK economy and the British Pound in the long run. Nonetheless, volatility has reached new extremes for GBP currency crosses. Elevated volatility levels of GBP opens up buying opportunities in the medium term as uncertainty fades.

Historically, steep falls in the Pound have presaged strong rebounds. The subsidence of volatility following the financial crisis and the Scottish referendum, led to strong gains for GBP against the Euro and JPY. With GBP being battered by the uncertainty surrounding the ebb and flow of sentiment following polling survey results, we see attractive value in the Pound, especially against the Euro and Yen, in the final lead-up to the June 23rd vote.

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.