Broad commodity basket ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

Broad commodity basket ETPs took the lion’s share of flows ETF SecuritiesBroad commodity basket ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

ETF Securities – Broad commodity basket ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

Highlights

  • Diversified commodity basket ETPs dominate inflows.
  • Softening momentum in global manufacturing data sparked outflows from copper, aluminium and industrial metal basket ETPs.
  • Outflows from gold ETPs rose for the fifth consecutive week amidst a strong US dollar.
  • Crude oil ETPs faced another week of outflows as higher inventory data caused oil prices to decline.

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Inflows into diversified commodity basket ETPs, totalling US$92.5mn surged to their highest level since May 2016. Rising volatility across global financial markets in conjunction with supportive fundamentals for most commodities favours the case for diversifying a portfolio.

Softening momentum in global manufacturing data sparked outflows from copper, aluminium and broad industrial metal basket ETPs worth US$28.9mn, US$11.1mn and US$14.8mn respectively. The decline in Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector to its lowest level since July 2016 appears to have stoked concerns of future demand for industrial metals, coupled with weaker manufacturing PMI data across US, Europe and UK. Added to that, copper production in Chile, home to the world’s largest copper mining producer, rose 6.3% over the prior year in January providing evidence of rising copper supply. The imposition of trade tariffs by President Trump on steel and aluminium imports generated volatility across industrial metals prompting outflows from industrial metal basket and aluminium ETPs for the first time in three weeks. Nickel ETPs bucked the trend, by recording inflows of US$9.4mn owing to expectations of demand from battery technology.

Outflows from gold ETPs amounting to US$93.8mn rose for the fifth week in a row amidst a strong US dollar. In the first nine weeks of 2018, the overall trend of gold ETP flows has largely been negative. Last week marked the fifth consecutive week of gold ETP outflows as the US dollar strengthened in the aftermath of Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell’s optimistic view of the US economy and upward trajectory of interest rates. Meanwhile, precious metal basket ETPs garnered inflows worth US$11.1mn for the fifth consecutive week.

Crude oil ETPs faced another week of outflows worth US$15.8mn. Since the start of 2018, there has only been one week of inflows into crude oil ETPs highlighting the ensuing pessimism amongst ETP investors, who have been opportunistically selling into the price rally that began around June 2017. Last week, crude oil prices came under significant pressure owing to an unexpected sharp increase in US crude oil stocks in conjunction with the firmer US dollar. Added to that, weaker manufacturing data in China, known to be the world’s largest crude oil importer, amplified risk aversion amongst investors. The drop in OPEC production to a 10-month low in February failed to counteract the bearish sentiment since it is largely attributable to temporary production shortfalls in Venezuela.

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

Profit-taking leads to outflows in gold ETPs

Profit-taking leads to outflows in gold ETPs

ETF Securities – Profit-taking leads to outflows in gold ETPs

Highlights

  • Agricultural basket ETPs received the largest inflows since inception.
  • Inflows into industrial metal basket ETPs rebound, reversing the prior week’s trend of outflows.
  • Gold ETPs suffer US$103.5mn redemptions on the back of profit-taking.

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Agricultural basket ETPs received the largest inflows since inception, totalling US$54.7mn surpassing the previous high achieved only four weeks ago. After a lacklustre performance over the prior year with the exception of cotton, a majority of agricultural commodities are trading higher in 2018 owing to severe weather conditions. Wheat prices have been benefiting from the ongoing dry spell in key US growing areas that is hampering the development of the dormant winter wheat. While the severe dry conditions in Argentina are supporting soybean and soybean meal prices higher. Meanwhile USDA’s February World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, shows lower closing inventories for corn stocks, lending buoyancy to prices. Added to that the weaker US dollar is also helping the value of dollar-denominated exports in many agricultural commodities.

Inflows into industrial metal basket ETPs rebound to US$42.1mn reversing the prior week’s trend of outflows. The pronounced US dollar weakness coupled with higher than expected inflation data in the US has lent buoyancy to industrial metal prices. As metals and commodities are viewed as a hedge against inflation.

Inflows into Nickel ETPs worth US$21.4mn garner momentum, rising for the sixth week in a row. Nickel was the best performer last week amongst the industrial metals complex, with a price rise of 7.3%. The growth associated with electric vehicle batteries is expected to play a role in demand for nickel that currently only accounts for 3% of total demand. Added to that, roughly 50% of the current nickel mine supply is suitable for battery use as the low grade nickel products are inadequate for battery manufacturing, raising the need for further production as global nickel inventories have been trading lower.

Gold ETPs suffer US$103.5mn redemptions on the back of profit-taking. Gold prices advanced to US$1360 per troy ounce attaining an 18-month high on the back of higher than expected inflation data and weaker retail sales in the US. Outflows from platinum ETPs continue for the seventh week in a row. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, while new car registrations in the EU rose by 7.1% year-on-year, the percentage of diesel cars as a proportion of all new cars registered declined by 33%. This is likely to weigh on platinum, known for its use in pollution abatement technologies used in diesel vehicles.

Energy basket ETPs face redemptions worth US$13.2mn. While Oil ETPs saw inflows worth US$21.8mn. In its latest update the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) predicted production increase of 1.8mn barrels per day (bpd) is likely to exceed the anticipated growth in global demand. Added to that, owing to the ongoing unscheduled outages in Venezuela, the market would appear to be largely balanced if OPEC’s current oil production at 32.3mn bpd remained constant. However when Venezuela resumes production at normal levels, the oil market will be oversupplied.

 

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The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

2018 ETP flows pick up right where 2017 left off

2018 ETP flows pick up right where 2017 left off

ETF Securities – 2018 ETP flows pick up right where 2017 left off

Highlights

  • Global equity ETPs garnered US$21.6mn buoyed by a synchronised global growth story.
  • Gold ETPs received inflows of US$19.2mn led by higher gold prices, having gained support from a weaker US dollar.
  • Outflows worth US$14.1mn from crude oil ETPs mark a continuation of last year’s trend of outflows.

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Gold ETPs received inflows of US$19.2mn, staging a strong start to the new year. Gold prices ended the week higher by 1% supported by a weak US dollar. While the rise in US payrolls missed estimates by a considerable margin of 42,000 workers in December, owing to a shortfall in the services sector, it is unlikely to be a significant shift in the overall trend. The US ADP employment data showed private employers added 250,000 jobs in December, marking the biggest monthly increase since March last year. The accomplishment of passing the US tax bill is also likely to benefit US corporate earnings. We continue to expect the Fed to hike in March. Moreover the December FOMC minutes released last week, highlight concerns of higher inflation expectations in 2018 stemming from wage growth. The likelihood of higher inflation should keep the Fed on track with its three rate hike projections in 2018 and is likely to be a headwind for gold prices going forward.

Global equity ETPs garnered US$21.6mn buoyed by a synchronised global growth story. Strong economic data in US, Europe and China has helped reinforce the positive sentiment helping global stock markets attain new highs. In addition, the cut in the US corporate tax rate has boosted expectations for corporate earnings that kick off this week.

Precious metal ETPs garnered strong inflows worth US$18.8mn. Palladium prices rose to US$1100 for the first time in 17 years, in continuation with last years trend. Fears of a supply shortage continue to drive palladium prices higher. However we expect to see its closely traded counterpart platinum outperform palladium, owing to its steep price discount and the strengthening European car market.

Crude oil ETPs saw outflows of US$14.1mn, extending last year’s trend of relentless outflows. Fears of political unrest in Iran disrupting oil supply coupled with OPEC’s high compliance with production cuts helped push Brent crude above US$68, its highest level since May 2015. Meanwhile positive economic data across the globe and severe cold weather conditions in the US sent WTI crude oil just shy of its 2015 high. Evident from the build-up in short positioning of crude oil ETPs, investors are increasingly becoming aware that current prices are unsustainable as the US continues to expand production and the unrest in Iran settles.

Diversified basket ETPs received US$12mn as major commodities kick start the year with a strong performance. The Bloomberg commodity spot index, known to track a broad basket of 22 major commodities, attained its highest level since 2014. The improving global growth story is benefiting the outlook for commodities and drawing investors into broad based diversified commodity baskets.

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Tensions with North Korea to support demand for gold

Tensions with North Korea to support demand for gold

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Tensions with North Korea to support demand for gold

  • Gold ETPs recorded the largest weekly inflows since March as tensions with North Korea escalate.
  • Short Oil ETPs recorded inflows as oil prices trade around US$50/bbl on average.
  • Inflows into copper ETPs as manufacturing activity in China grew more than expected in August.

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Investors rushed into gold ETPs as North Korea is threatening further military tests near the US seas. Last week saw US$122.5mn inflows into gold ETPs as tensions with North Korea intensify. Whilst the country has been demonstrating its military force since at least the 80’s, it has stepping up its provocations since the summer 2016 when Kim Jong-un claims that he can launch a missile capable of striking the US. Verbal provocations recently turned into military action with a North Korean missile overflying Japan on Tuesday morning. Allies have responded by another demonstration of force on Thursday as US bombers joined South Korea in a live-fire bombing exercise over South Korea. Russia and China, on the other hand, are pushing for diplomatic talks. Gold price rose by 2.6% on Tuesday, closing above US$1,318/oz., the highest level since September 2016, before ending the week at US$1,320/oz. Platinum and silver, on the other hand, recorded outflows of US$12.4mn and US$34.5mn respectively, likely on profit-taking as prices touched the highest levels since Q1 2017.

Inflows into short oil ETPs sent mix signals despite robust domestic demand for oil in the US. Hurricane Harvey which hit the US Gulf Coast damaged a third of US oil refineries, sending the price of heating oil and gasoline to the highest level since the summer 2015. The hurricane, downgraded to tropical depression, is the first category 3 to make landfall in the US since 2005. Oil prices, on the other hand, have barely moved from their current momentum. WTI fell 1.2% over the past week while Brent remains flat. Natural gas was up 6.2% over the week as the active contract rolled from September to October on Wednesday with a curve in contango. After six weeks of outflows, oil ETPs recorded US$5.8mn inflows last week, mostly into short oil ETPs, reflecting investors’ views that oil prices will remain range-bound. However, US domestic demand for oil remains strong as inventories declined more than expected last week despite production continuing to rise.

Copper ETPs recorded inflows on growing Chinese manufacturing activities in August. China manufacturing PMI surprised the market to the upside while service and non-manufacturing PMIs grew at their lowest pace in four months as construction activity slowed down. Interestingly, the Caixin manufacturing PMI, released last Friday, also confirmed a pickup in in industrial activities at 51.6 against 51 expected and 51.1 in July. While the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics data focus on large to mid-sized companies, the Caixin manufacturing PMI tracks smaller and private businesses and therefore provides an independent reading from official numbers. The price of industrial metals rose by 3.0% on average last week and 10.8% over the past month. We continue to expect Chinese data to beat expectations and support demand for metals.

Video Presentation

Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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Investors rotate into gold out of silver

Investors rotate into gold out of silver

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Investors rotate into gold out of silver

  • Investors rotate back to gold, away from silver.
  • Emerging market bond ETPs see highest inflows since January.
  • Investors sell oil ETPs as price nears the top of trading range.

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Gold ETPs receive largest inflows since May 2017, while silver ETPs see largest outflows since July 2016. With gold holding its gains last week, investors increased their holding of the metal by US$64.7mn. A small miss in US ISM manufacturing figures and continued political volatility in the Trump Administration following the sacking of its Communications Director lent weakness to the US Dollar and support to gold. We believe that in the absence of shocks, gold will trade around current levels until the end of the year. However, should we get any shock events, gold could rise higher. Investors acknowledging this “hedge” trait of gold are buying into the metal as a source of portfolio insurance. Meanwhile long silver ETPs saw outflows of US$58.3mn, as its price failed to hold onto gains from the previous week. As economic growth continues, we expect that silver will outperform gold by the end of the year, which could see inflows into silver resume.

Inflows into Emerging Market government bond ETPs the highest since January 2017. Marking the third consecutive week of inflows into Emerging Market government bonds, inflows of US$18.6mn indicate that investor sentiment around emerging markets is continuing to grow. Gains in local government bonds of around 11% this year, underpin the recent increase in sentiment.

Third consecutive week of outflows from crude oil ETPs. Outflows of long US$75mn were the highest since May 2017. After the prior week’s gains in oil prices, investors continued to take-profit. By the end of the week, WTI oil had lost all its gains from the previous week. Investors continue to play a price range of US$40-55/bbl. When oil trades closer to the lower part of the range, we expect to see inflows resume. Recent price weakness comes as OPEC members are poorly conforming with their production limits. Kuwait and Russia are chairing a meeting today and tomorrow in Abu Dhabi with several OPEC and non-OPEC members participant in the deal to limit production. The spotlight will be shone on countries like Iraq, Gabon, Ecuador and UAE who are the cartel’s worst offenders.

Investors polarised on USD/EUR. Last week inflows into short USD-long EUR ETPs rose to US$6.2mn, breaking a five weeks of outflows. Meanwhile inflows into short EUR-long USD rose to US$6.3mn, marking seventh consecutive week of inflows. In aggregate there were US$14.6mn of inflows into USD ETPs. Despite recent weakness in the US Dollar and strength in the Euro, we think the broader currency market has misjudged the reticence of the ECB and that confidence in aggressive tapering in coming months misguided. We feel the recent Euro strength will fade, while tightening policy in the US will drive the US Dollar higher. Friday’s payroll report, which was considerably stronger than expected, should provide support to Dollar over the coming week, and reverse the weakness seen earlier last week.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (”CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (”HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (”HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (”SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (”FXL”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (”MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (”OSL”), ETFS Equity Securities Limited (”ESL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (”GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, MSL, OSL and ESL, the ”Issuers”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the ”Company ”). Each Issuer (apart from SCSL) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a ”Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the ”Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended).

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