Game Changer: Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Denna veckas lansering av Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect är en av de viktigaste händelserna för de finansiella marknaderna på länge, inte bara för Kina utan även globalt. I denna video berättar Jan van Eck, VD för kapitalförvaltningsföretaget Van Eck Global mer om vad han anser vara den utan tvekan viktigaste händelsen för investerare under 2014. Van Eck Global är det företag som förvaltar de börshandlade fonder, ETFer, som går under namnet Market Vectors.
Titta på videon för att ta reda på vad investerare bör vara uppmärksamma på och vad det innebär
Lång- och kortsiktiga konsekvenser
Omfattning av Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect
Investeringsmöjligheter
Van Eck is a U.S.-based asset management firm with more than five decades of global investment expertise.
Founded in 1955 by John C. van Eck, Van Eck Global was among the first U.S. money managers helping investors achieve greater diversification through global investing. Today, the firm continues this tradition by offering innovative, actively managed investment choices in hard assets, emerging markets, precious metals, fixed income, and other specialized, domestic and international asset classes. Van Eck currently manages assets on behalf of more than 400 institutions including endowments, foundations, hospitals, pensions, and private banks. The firm’s traditional and alternative strategies are offered in both fund and separate account portfolios.
Market Vectors Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) have been offered by Van Eck since 2006 when the firm launched the United States’ first gold-mining ETF. Today, the firm offers over 50 ETFs which span several asset classes, including equity, fixed-income and currency markets. Many of the ETFs are based on pure-play indices, whose constituents must derive a majority of revenues from the target region/sector. Market Vectors is one of the largest ETP families in the U.S and worldwide.
Headquartered in New York City, Van Eck Global has a presence in other cities worldwide, including Shanghai (China), Frankfurt (Germany), Madrid (Spain), Pfaeffikon SZ (Switzerland) and Sydney (Australia).
Jan van Eck, CEO, provides an update on the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program and how it opens up Chinese A-Shares equities to global investors.
”We think this is one of the most important events for investors in 2014….Because Stock Connect is not an all-encompassing program, there are still opportunities within the Chinese markets that you can access outside of Stock Connect.”
Van Eck Global som grundades 1955 var en av de första amerikanska kapitalförvaltarna att komma att erbjuda investerare att uppnå större diversifiering genom global investera. Idag fortsätter företaget denna tradition genom att erbjuda innovativa, aktivt förvaltade investeringsalternativ i hårda tillgångar, tillväxtmarknader, ädelmetaller, inklusive guld, obligationer, och andra specialiserade, nationella och internationella tillgångsklasser.
Following another month of weakening data, more stimulus has been deployed. Domestic equities are likely to be the key beneficiary of this stimulus as economic growth responds.
Contrary to popular belief, reform and stimulus can and do go hand-in-hand.
An important step to address the current precarious system of local government financing was made by putting in place guidelines that allow local governments to borrow under their own name rather than through intermediaries. We believe the reform will reduce complexity and increase transparency of the financial system and thus go a long way to improve confidence in the sector.
With the completion of the Fourth Plenum meeting last week, we expect further reform to strengthen China’s institutional framework.
With financial intermediation migrating away from the shadow banking sector, the People’s Bank of China has been active in ensuring that the formal banking sector has ample liquidity by pumping in a further CNY200bn into 20 banks on top of the CNY500bn offered to the five largest banks the month before.
While most economic data has continued to weaken, a number of releases were notably better-than-expected, underscoring our view that worst seems to have been priced in. Q3 GDP growth, September industrial production and the October flash HSBC PMIs all came in above consensus expectations in sign that the subtle stimulus measures deployed in the past few months are gaining traction.
CHINA DELIVERS ON LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING REFORM
As we have previously noted, China’s precarious system of local government financing needed urgent reform (see “China Macro Monitor, Is China at Risk of a Debt Crisis?”, July 2014) . On October 2nd, China delivered on that reform with the State Council providing guidelines on local government borrowing and debt management. In conjunction with its amendment to the budget law on 31st August 2014, which included a new legal framework for local governments to issue bonds directly, the reform paves the way for a more direct model of local government finance.
When local governments were prohibited from borrowing directly, they made extensive use of intermediaries called local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) which in turn borrowed from banks and trust companies. These arrangements have been unnecessarily complex and the lack of transparency has damaged confidence in the financial system. The timely reform has therefore been highly welcome.
Most of that LGFV borrowing fell under the category of shadow-banking, with even direct banks loans often taken off-balance sheet by ‘undiscounting’ bankers’ acceptances. A direct consequence of this reform will likely be a contraction in shadow banking activity – a trend we have already observed in the past quarter
A brand new paradigm
Under the guidelines set by the State Council, upper tier governments will be able issue “general obligation bonds” for social and public welfare projects that generate no revenue as well as “special purpose bonds” for projects that generate some revenues but not enough to be self-financing. Upper tier governments will be able to borrow to lend onto lower tier governments and to refinance maturing debt.
Additional requirements for disclosure will enhance transparency, which we believe is a key feature for boosting market confidence. The State Council set quotas on upper tier government borrowing and the Ministry of Finance will vet the subsequent on-lending to lower level governments, consolidating debt control measures.
PBoC remains active in driving liquidity into the financial system
With financial intermediation progressively shifting away from the shadow banking sector, the central bank has been keen to ensure ample liquidity has been maintained in the banking sector. This month the PBoC pumped CNY200bn into a broader range of 20 banks over and above the CNY500bn offered last month to the five largest banks.
As can be seen from the chart on page 1, growth in banking sector loans has also been negative and capital market financing has not been able to compensate for the shortfall in both areas. That underscores the PBoC’s urgency in making sure financing does not falter.
The central bank’s measures also will help address some of the weakness in the real economy as the government firmly maintains its target for 7-8% GDP growth this year.
In a bid to help the ailing housing market set free from a self-fulfilling negative spiral mortgage interest rates and downpayment levels were cut for some borrowers.
14-day repo rates were cut further to 3.4% from 3.5% in October further to the 20bps cut made in September.
FOURTH PLENUM SETS THE SCENE FOR FURTHER REFORM
The landmark Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting last week placed the rule of law on the centre stage. The meeting underscored how serious the CPC is about the reforming institutions to deliver better results. A key development will be separate executive and judicial systems, in a move aimed to unencumber the system from corruption that has previously led to inefficient outcomes and delayed the implementation of decisions made by the central government.
We expect reform to continue to be implemented and economic stimulus will help the process of transition.
NEARING THE BOTTOM?
While GDP growth decelerated to 7.3% y-o-y in Q3 2014, it proved to be better than expected. More timely, industrial production data for September grew 8.0% y-o-y, rebounding from a five-year low of 6.9% y-o-y set in August. The flash October HSBC manufacturing PMI also came in higher than expected at 50.4 compared to 50.2 in September. While many other data points remain weak, the industrial data could mark a turning point as stimulus activity gains traction (for a summary of recent policy easing refer to table on page 10).
CHINA A-SHARES TEMPORARILY DIP AS SHANGHAI-HONG KONG CONNECT DELAYED
The Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect has been delayed, helping push the China A-Share market down 3.8% since its recent peak hit on 9th October (however the index is still up 10.6% in the past six months).
It appears that temporary factors have been behind the delay, though no definite time for implementation has yet been given.
State media reports imply that the reason for the delay is the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. There is also some speculation that Northbound brokers have requested more time for implementation. All indications point to the testing of the link having been successful, indicating there are no technical blockages to implementation.
In our view the implementation of the program is a matter of when not if, as there are no structural reasons for the delay and it is in the interests of the mainland China government and policy-makers to open up the domestic stock market to foreign investment and mainland flows into the Hong Kong stock exchange.
Therefore, we view the recent correction as a good opportunity for investors who missed the China A-Share rally between July and the beginning of October, to build positions.
For a more detailed overview of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect see “Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect: A Boost For China A-Shares”
Although the premium of H-Shares over A-Shares had disappeared temporarily earlier this month, the premium has re-emerged. That opens opportunities to benefit from future arbitrage.
We believe that the recent pull-back in the China A-Share index will be regained on the opening of the Connect as Northbound flows accelerate. Furthermore, ratcheting up of stimulus by the government and central bank will help continue the positive momentum that has dominated the China A-Share index during the second half of this year.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Hong Kongs heroiska ETFer. Hong Kong är ett område i Kina vilket är inkörsporten till världens näst största ekonomi och medlem av den krympande andel länder/områden som har det högsta kreditbetyget AAA. Hongkong är också hem för en aktiemarknad som handlas till sin högsta nivå på tre år. Vi tittar därför närmare på Hong Kongs heroiska ETFer.
Hang Seng handlades något lägre under förra veckan, men med en uppgång på sju procent under de senaste tre månaderna kan Hang Seng, Hong Kongbörsens jämförelseindex förtjäna en liten respit. Denna uppgång har lett till att göra de börshandlade fonder som replikerar Hong Kongbörsens utveckling till vinnare.
Under det senaste kvartalet har iShares MSCI Hongkong ETF: (NYSEArca EWH), som har cirka 2,3 miljarder USD under förvaltning, stigit med cirka fem procent. Visst det finns andra landsspecifika ETFer som har utvecklats bättre under samma period än vad EWH har gjort, men denna börshandlade fond börjar nu närma sig en nivå, 22 USD, som den inte har varit i närheten av sedan december 2007.
EWH har släpat efter andra internationella ETFer eftersom Hang Seng hade en minst sagt tråkig utveckling under mars i spåren av rädslan för avtagande tillväxt i Kina. En mer sangvinisk utsikt om Kinas ekonomiska tillväxt, prat om stimulanser från Peking och övertygande värderingar – både på fastlandet och i Hongkong – har stärkt EWH och dess rivaler.
Hang Seng Index handlas för närvarande 9,8 gånger kommande årresultat, vilket gör Hong Kong Börsen mycket billigare än 16,7 gånger på S & P 500, 17,8 gånger för Japans Nikkei eller 16,0 för NasdaqOMX. Det betyder att aktierna i Hang Seng också är billigare än den genomsnittliga aktien i MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Bland de aktier som handlas till störst rabatt finns sektorerna finans och industri, vilka tillsammans har en andel om 69 procent i EWH.
Investerare som söker ett alternativ index inställning till Hongkong ETFer kan överväga att titta på First Trust Hong Kong AlphaDEX Fund (NYSEArca: FHK). Även om FHK inte är viktad ETF så är denna börshandlade fond tungt viktad mot den finansiella sektorn med 52,5 procent av förmögenheten i denna bransch. Det är hög koncentration till en enda sektor, men FHK reflekterar de rabatter vi ser på Hong Kong börsen med ett P/E-tal under 10 och ett förhållande mellan price och bookvalue på bara 0,98, enligt First Trusts egna uppgifter.
FHK har stigit med cirka 4 proccent den senaste månaden och noteras nu kring rekordnivåer. En betydande andel av kapitalet i FHK är allokerat till finansiella tjänster, och därmed är denna ETF i hög grad exponerad för utvecklingen för byggföretag, en grupp företag som har varit kontroversiell i Hong Kong och Kina. Det är emellertid de aktierna, varav flera återfinns bland de tio största innehaven i FHK, som rusat mest sedan flera kommuner har lättat på restriktionerna för att köpa egna hem i syfte att öka på den ekonomiska aktiviteten. Rädslan för en våg av fallissemang bland landets tungt skuldsatta byggföretag har ännu så länge visat sig ogrundad.
FHK omfattar 40 aktier och har 3 900 000 USD i förvaltat kapital. Förvaltningsavgiften ligger på 0,8 procent per år jämfört med 0,47 procent för EWH.
Hang Seng China AH Premium Index – Ett index du ska ha koll på
Hang Seng China AH Premium Index – Ett index du ska ha koll på. Kina har startat året starkt men det är viktigt att hålla tungan rätt i mun när man pratar Kina. Uppgången i år för de mest kända kinesiska börsindexen i SEK är: CSI 300 (8,92%), Shanghai Composite (7,01%), Shenzhen SE A-Share index (6,04%) samt Hang Seng/Hong Kong (4,54%).
På senare tid har kinesiska bolag noterade på det kinesiska fastlandet utvecklats starkare än bolagen som är noterade i Hong Kong. Detta är precis det omvända jämfört med 2012 då utvecklingen var betydligt starkare i Hong Kong. Detta skift förutspådde jag redan i slutet av 2012, se tidigare inlägg om Kina.
Det finns ett viktigt index att hålla koll på i samband med detta – Hang Seng China AH Premium Index. Vad säger detta index? Detta index mäter den genomsnittliga prisskillnaden mellan bolag som är noterade på det kinesiska fastlandet (s.k. A-aktier) och bolag noterade i Hong Kong (s.k. H-aktier). Bolag som ingår i detta index är de största och mest handlade bolagen som har dessa två noteringar. Dessa bolag benämns ofta som AH-bolag. I dagsläget ingår strax över 50 bolag i indexet.
Detta index ger en tydlig indikation kring huruvida A-aktier i förhållande till H-aktier handlas till en premie eller rabatt, se graf nedan. Nedanstående graf illustrerar den senaste femårsperioden samt medianvärdet under denna period (värde 112,57). Per senaste stängning handlades detta index tillvärdet 105,36. Detta index har inte handlats över 100 sedan oktober 2012. 100 nivån bröts nu i inledningen av februari. Anledningen till att det uppstår en premie eller rabatt beror dels på marknadsförutsättningar, dels gällande lagar och regler. I dagsläget får inte utländska investerare äga kinesiska A-aktier hur som helst utan det finns olika typer av begränsningar.
Kinesiska A-aktier sett utifrån CSI 300 indexet handlas till ett P/E-tal för den kommande tolvmånadersperioden på 10,5x. Detta faktum tillsammans med skiftet i Hang Seng China AH Premium indexet har stärkt min syn på Kina och Kinesiska A-aktier. För tillgängliga CSI 300 ETF:er, se länk nedan (”Bästa Kina-ETF:en”).
Källa: Factset, 2008-02-04–2013-02-04, i lokal valuta. Median 112,57
