Let Guidance Be Your Guide Bob Carey, Chief Market Strategist at First Trust Advisors L.P., discusses the latest developments in the market and reminds investors to listen closely to guidance forecasts during the upcoming earnings season. Let Guidance Be Your Guide.
A Better Way to Invest
First Trust Portfolios L.P. and its affiliate First Trust Advisors L.P. (collectively ”First Trust”) were established in 1991 with a mission to offer investors a better way to invest. At First Trust, we are single-minded about providing trusted investment products and advisory services. We’re inspired every day by how financial advisors and their customers use our products and services to define goals, solve problems and develop long-term strategies. Everyone in our company is encouraged to work diligently and respectfully to deliver superior products, services and results that will contribute to the prosperity of our clients. This philosophy is carried through to our approach to investing. Our approach is simple, and our company was built with these core principles in mind:
Know what you own – When it comes to investing, it is critical to know what you own. We believe that transparency is enormously valuable in aiding investors and advisors in making informed investment decisions.
Invest for the long-term – We view market timing as an investment strategy that results in undue risk. Because it is virtually impossible for even the most experienced investors to predict market movements with certainty and consistency, we believe investors are best served by following a well-considered, long-term strategy.
Employ discipline – Disciplined investing does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss, but it does reduce the probability of making emotional investing decisions which can result in entering or leaving the market at precisely the wrong time.
Rebalance – Over time, the asset mix in a portfolio can begin to drift from its original allocation. Rebalancing ”forces” you to periodically reset your portfolio back to its intended allocation. By setting a pattern of rebalancing, you become accustomed to taking profits from winners and adding to losers. This process has the added benefit of helping to remove emotion and avoid the temptation to chase performance or shy away from value.
Control taxes – Minimizing taxes is an important part of an overall investing strategy for any investor with securities in a taxable account. Certain of our products are designed to minimize the effect taxes have on your portfolio. This is accomplished in part, due to the tax efficient structure of many of the investment vehicles that we offer.
We take these investing principles into consideration in all aspects of our business. Our reputation has been built on these principles and our reputation is everything. We are committed to providing original ideas, inventive products and the highest level of service. We have a relentless focus on the needs of our clients in fulfilling our mission of providing a better way to invest.
Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange Commodity Currencies Come Under Pressure
Pausing for a minute to reflect on something else apart from the Greek drama there are some interesting opportunities outside the EUR. Please find below some comments on the Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD) which are likely to face headwinds in coming months. Pressure is likely to come from a temporary downside correction in oil prices and further easing of monetary conditions by central banks. We believe in the longer term, there is upside to the CAD and NOK unlike AUD and NZD where we believe rates will remain depressed (see: Outlook Q3-15: What Happens When Fundamentals Reassert Over Sentiment).
Oil Prices to Push CAD & NOK Lower
Commodity Currencies Look Set to Fall
Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD) are likely to face headwinds in coming months. Pressure is likely to come from a temporary downside correction in oil prices and further easing of monetary conditions by central banks. We believe in the longer term, there is upside to the CAD and NOK unlike AUD and NZD where we believe rates will remain depressed (see: Outlook Q3-15: What Happens When Fundamentals Reassert Over Sentiment).
CAD & NOK – Oil Price Influence
Last year’s decline in oil prices has yet to dent global oil production. OPEC has kept production stubbornly high in effort to maintain market share, while US shale producers have managed to exploit efficiency gains in order to maintain output levels. The market has taken confidence from the first sign of strength in oil demand and still anticipates production cuts, which in the last few months, have kept oil prices well supported in the US$65-60 range.
Oil Prices to Push CAD & NOK Lower
We believe the rebound in oil prices in the early part of the year was slightly premature and could partially undermine rebalancing in the global oil market. As such we forecast global oil production remaining strong into next year, which is when the impact of announced capital expenditure cuts is likely to stem oil production from conventional sources. This should see oil prices fall further in the short term only to rally in the early part of next year.
In the last few days the Greek debt crisis and negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear program has prompted a retraction in oil prices. Investors are expressing concern over the potential impact on oil demand from an increasingly likely “Grexit” scenario and the introduction of Iranian crude onto global markets. Despite the yesterday’s price drop, we still see risks skewed to the downside for crude prices, creating a good opportunity to go tactically short both the CAD and NOK. Lower oil prices are likely to exacerbate growth concerns in both Canada and Norway and could prompt further currency depreciation, particularly against the US Dollar.
The AUD and NZD have both recently depreciated as both nations have witnessed the price of their primary commodity exports decline. In Australia, weak sentiment towards Chinese growth prospects and oversupply has caused the price of coal and iron ore to crumble. Similarly, in New Zealand excess global production and subdued demand has seen dairy prices collapse.
In response, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut benchmark interest rates in an attempt to buoy growth and stabilise falling inflation. Furthermore, in most recent media statements, both institutions have highlighted the importance of further currency devaluation in supporting economic objectives. Thus, we believe that further interest rate cuts could be in store, which makes the medium term outlook for both the AUD and NZD bearish. Given this outlook, we believe investors would likely benefit from acquiring short exposure to both AUD and NZD.
Commodity Export Prices Have Plunged
Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:
Currency ETPs EUR Base
ETFS Long AUD Short EUR (EUAU)
ETFS Short AUD Long EUR (AUEU)
ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE)
ETFS Long NOK Short EUR (EUNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long EUR (NOEU)
ETFS Long NZD Short EUR (EUNZ)
ETFS Short NZD Long EUR (NZEU)
GBP Base
ETFS Long AUD Short GBP (GBAU)
ETFS Short AUD Long GBP (AUGB)
ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA)
ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB)
ETFS Long NOK Short GBP (GBNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long GBP (NOGB)
ETFS Long NZD Short GBP (GBNZ)
ETFS Short NZD Long GBP (NZGB)
USD Base
ETFS Long AUD Short USD (LAUD)
ETFS Short AUD Long USD (SAUD)
ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD)
ETFS Long NOK Short USD (LNOK)
ETFS Short NOK Long USD (SNOK)
ETFS Long NZD Short USD (LNZD)
ETFS Short NZD Long USD (SNZD)
3x
ETFS 3x Long AUD Short EUR (EAU3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long EUR (AUE3)
ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3)
ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3)
ETFS3x Long AUD Short GBP (AUP3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long GBP (SAP3)
ETFS 3x Long AUD Short USD (LAU3)
ETFS 3x Short AUD Long USD (SAU3)
5x
ETFS 5x Long AUD Short EUR (EAU5)
ETFS 5x Short AUD Long EUR (AUE5)
ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5)
ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5)
Currency Baskets
ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM)
ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.
This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks.
Securities issued by FXL are direct, limited recourse obligations of FXL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley to determine whether Morgan Stanley’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley. 126
As of the end of June 2015, global ETP assets stood at $2.8 trillion with European ETP assets amounting to $499bn (€448bn). Equity ETFs registered inflows of +€2.8bn which were partly offset by outflows from Fixed Income ETFs (-€1.1bn) during the month of June. Commodity ETPs listed in Europe saw outflows of -€0.2bn.
European equities, particularly German equities favoured over US equities
European equities were, again, preferred over US Equities, both among European and US investors. European equities exposed ETFs gathered over +€3.3bn of inflows compared to +€164mn of inflows into ETFs exposed to US equities. In both listing regions, German equities commanded significant inflows.
Fixed income ETFs experience outflows for the second consecutive month
The selloff in bond markets which had started in late April continued in June resulting in bond yields to rise to its highest level for the year in early June. Correspondingly, European fixed income ETPs saw net outflows for the second consecutive month in 2015 (-€1.1bn). This was driven mainly by sovereign and corporate bonds based ETFs.
Greece crisis triggers significant increase in Greek ETF turnover
Greece focused ETFs listed globally saw an increase in on-exchange activity as the Greek crisis escalated in June ($506mn of turnover in June vs $262mn in May’15). However, total assets remained flat during the month ($563mn). Greek ETFs listed in Europe halted trading on June 26th but an ETF listed in US (GREK US) has continued to trade despite the Greek stock market closure in late June.
China outflows continue as equity markets sell off
Since mid June, the Shanghai Composite Index had lost over 32%. This rout had resulted in China focused ETFs listed globally to experience -$3.3bn of outflows in June (-$18bn so far this year).
New thematic, smart beta and currency hedged product launches
Source launched two thematic ETFs that provide exposure to European and Japanese exporting companies while Lyxor launched two min variance ETFs on the FTSE Developed Europe and FTSE Emerging benchmarks. Several currency hedged ETFs (details on pg 7) were also launched by UBS and Blackrock.
Is Europe Back On Track? Russ Koesterich describes the forces behind Europe’s success in 2015 and the opportunities this presents for investors.
About iShares
iShares is the largest ETF provider in the world, with more than 700 funds listed globally and more than $914.8 billion in assets under management.*
iShares scale
iShares are part of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. iShares have over 40 years of indexing experience and have deep roots in every region of the world.
Indexing
The iShares family of ETFs is built around virtually every leading index provider, including Barclays Capital, Cohen & Steers, Dow Jones, FTSE, JPMorgan, MSCI, NASDAQ, NYSE, Russell and Standard & Poor’s.
Listings
iShares Funds are listed on the NYSEArca, Chicago Board Options Exchange, BATS and NASDAQ.
ETFs combine features of mutual funds and stocks. With low overall costs, access to hundreds of companies and trading flexibility, it’s no wonder that ETFs are some of the fastest-growing investment vehicles in the financial market today.**
