Investors appear to shrug off trade-war risk for now

Investors appear to shrug off trade-war risk for now ETF SecuritiesInvestors appear to shrug off trade-war risk for now

ETF Securities – Investors appear to shrug off trade-war risk for now

Highlights

  • Inflows into industrial metal baskets of US$9mn highlights cyclical optimism as investors appear to shrug off threats of a trade-war.
  • Gold ETPs attracted USD14.5mn, marking the first substantial inflow in six weeks.
  • Cocoa rally sparks profit taking

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Inflows into industrial metal baskets of US$9mn highlights cyclical optimism as investors appear to shrug off threats of a trade-war. Although base metal prices fell last week after the Trump Administration applied tariffs to imports of steel and aluminium in the US, many ETP investors shrugged off the event. The tariffs could tighten the supply of metal coming from China. As a serial overproducer, cutbacks from China would be welcome news and could even increase prices; China is already trying to reduce capacity in steel and aluminium and this should push the country further along in its efforts. The impact on the broader commodity complex will largely depend on the reaction from other countries. If a tit-for-tat trade war breaks out, we could see international trade decline and it could be the beginning of a downturn in economic prosperity for many countries, which could hurt cyclically exposed assets. The softening of rhetoric from the US by the end of the week could mean that other countries refrain from strong reciprocal measures, which could lower the risk of a severe escalation of a trade war.

Gold ETPs attracted USD14.5mn, marking the first substantial inflow in six weeks. Rising Treasury yields and a pause in US Dollar weakness has made gold less attractive of late. However, gold’s role as hedge to adverse events makes it attractive to investors who are worried about geopolitical events turning ugly. So while investors continued to build positions in cyclical assets (see above), they placed hedges against the threat of a trade war breaking out after the Trump Administration applied tariffs to imports of steel and aluminium in the US by increasing allocations to gold.

US$15.9mn of inflows into short USD ETPs. Last week’s flows seem to indicate that investors are betting against the temporary reprieve in US Dollar weakness. Most of the flows went into long Japanese Yen, but long Sterling and long Euro were also beneficiaries.

Cocoa rally sparks profit taking. Between August 2016 and May 2017, cocoa ETPs saw close to US$84mn of inflows, when prices fell close to 45% over that period. Investors appeared to be bargain-hunting. Now that cocoa prices are rising once again (+35% since December 2017), many investors may be thinking of taking profit. Outflows accelerated last week to US$18.9mn (the highest weekly outflow) as prices rose 6.6% last week alone. Prices are rising after the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) said that it expects the surplus in production this year to be lower than last year and indeed revised downward the scale of stock overhang from last year. The presence of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV) in Cote d’Ivoire (the largest cocoa producer) could limit the regions’ producing capacity in future years as maintenance programmes need to be undertaken to reduce the spread of the virus. The price of cocoa is already reacting.

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

Millenials har tagit de börshandlade fonderna till sitt hjärta

Millenials har tagit de börshandlade fonderna till sitt hjärta

Att Millenials har tagit de börshandlade fonderna till sitt hjärta är en sak, viktigare är att de har tagit ETFer till sin plånbok och använder sig av dessa. Millenials säger att en ETF är en lättanvänd, kostnadseffektiv och transparant investeringsform. Av denna anledning har ETFer i USA kommit att bli ett mycket populärt sätt att fånga avkastningskurvan i USA. Om trenden fortsätter kan ETFer stå inför en kraftfull tillväxt de kommande åren.

Den senaste ETF Investor Study som genomfördes av Charles Schwab & Co. visade att i genomsnitt att över en fjärdedel av deras portföljer, eller 27 %, för närvarande allokeras till en ETF, jämfört med 16 % år 2012. 42 procent av investerarna fortsätter att anta ETFer kommer att bli deras primära investeringsverktyg i framtiden jämfört med 28 % år 2016. Om fem år skulle börshandlade fonder alltså kunna utgöra 33 % av deras portföljer.

Attityderna har förändrats

Det har varit fascinerande att se hur attityder mot ETFer utvecklats under de sju år som vi har gjort denna undersökningsäger Charles Schwab i en kommentar ”Varje år säger investerare att ETFer spelar en ännu större roll i sina portföljer, och alla tecken pekar på att tillväxten fortsätter. När investerare har blivit mer bekanta med börshandlade fonders mångsidighet har deras självförtroende ökat. Hälften av ETF-investerare anser att deras förståelse av ETF på mellannivå är nästan alla (93 %) nu fullt övertygade om deras förmåga att välja en ETF som är rätt för deras investeringsmål.

Fördelat på generationerna står Millennials utbland olika investerare demografiskt. Cirka 56 % av millennierna säger ETFer är deras typ av investeringsverktyg, däremot är 44 % av de så kallade Generation Xers väljer en ETF och endast 30 % av Boomers vill ha en börshandlad fond.

Millennials är också mer benägna att satsa mer pengar på ETF. 60 procent säger att de kommer att öka sin ETF-exponering nästa år jämfört med 48% av Gen X och 29% av Boomers.

Bland de främsta orsakerna är att Millennials anser att börshandlade fonder kan hjälpa till att nå långsiktiga mål som att bygga rikedom och spara för pensionering. Millennials är mer benägna att överväga att inneha endast ETFer istället för att bara investera i enskilda aktier.

Millennials fortsätter att leda racet när det gäller ETF-adoption. Millennials har vuxit upp med ETFer, och på grund av deras förtrogenhet verkar de vara mer bekväma än andra generationer, för att omfamna dem som deras investeringsverktyg av val – och njuta av fördelarna med låga kostnader, skatteeffektivitet och öppenhet.

Socialt ansvarsfulla investeringar

Schwab försökte också att mäta svaren på socialt ansvarsfulla investeringar som de som täcker principer för miljö, samhälle och styrning, som nyligen har dragit ökat i betydelse. Medan endast en av 10 ETF-investerare har en socialt ansvarsfull investering, finns det ett ökat intresse för detta segment. 46 procent av alla ETF-investerare anser att det är viktigt att investera i socialt ansvariga aktier eftersom strategierna stämmer överens med deras övertygelse och 51 procent skulle investera mer om SRI-produktutbildning erbjöds.

Millennials, återigen, förblir i spetsen av SRI ETF adoption. 48 % av Millennials söker aktivt efter investeringar som använder SRI-strategier, jämfört med 32 % av Gen X och 14 % av Boomers. Millennials ser också socialt ansvarsfulla företag som ett sätt att anpassa sig till sina övertygelser samtidigt som de hjälper dem att nå långsiktiga mål.

Investors remain defensive despite fading geopolitical uncertainty

Investors remain defensive despite fading geopolitical uncertainty

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Investors remain defensive despite fading geopolitical uncertainty

Highlights

  • After a tumultuous month for gold, recent price weakness has prompted inflows of US$148mn over the last week.
  • Position reduction continues for industrial metals, with outflows of US$45m for the week.
  • Thematic equity ETFs, Robotic and Cyber security continued to see steady inflows last week withUS$25mn and US$3mn, respectively.
  • Recent price strength in cocoa, has seen investors take profits this week with US$9mn outflows.

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After a tumultuous month for gold, recent price weakness has prompted inflows of US$148mn over the last week, with a further US$16mn of inflows into other precious metals.

Negative sentiment over the last month has been primarily focussed on gold, while other precious metals have seen continued inflows, we believe this is due to the preeminent position of the sector as a safe haven destination. Gold, being seen as a risk hedge by many investors, has cooled in price recently due to the lack of news flow on geo-political worries. At the same time, market is continuing to focus on a Fed rate hike in December where market pricing suggests an 80% chance of a rate hike. Predictit.org also highlights the probabilities of the new Fed governorship being a race between Kevin Warsh, currently leading amongst bookies, and Jerome Powell. The former being seen as more hawkish on monetary policy relative to Janet Yellen, while Jerome Powell has similarly dovish views. We believe the prospect of a rate hike and a more hawkish governor is likely to weigh on gold prices in coming months.

We continue to see position reduction for industrial metals, with outflows of US$45m for the week, bringing outflows for the month to US$174m.

Prices for industrial metals have been strong this year having peaked with an average 22% gain. This week has seen further strong performance of 3% off the back of positive manufacturing data from the US and thin trading volumes from China due to Golden week. The outflows have been most concentrated in copper (US$34mn for the week) and the broad basket of industrials metals. The laggard in terms of performance this year, nickel, has seen inflows over the week of US$6mn.

We continue to expect a pullback in industrial metals because there are threats to the current rally due to this strong momentum. Historically, periods in which trading volumes in China have risen sharply have been followed by a correction. These pullbacks are usually an opportunity to shake out momentum trades and allow the market to focus on fundamentals. Given the significant declines in capital expenditure in recent years we continue to see deficits increase. Even though capital expenditure may soon start to increase, there remains long lead times in exploration and development of mines. We expect supplies to remain tight with the market unlikely to achieve balance in the short term.

Thematic equity ETFs, Robotics and Cyber security continued to see steady inflows last week with US$25mn and US$3mn, respectively.

Recent price strength in cocoa, which has risen 7.8% in recent months has seen investors take profits this week with US$9mn outflows.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Investors buy gold as ‘fire and fury’ envelopes markets

Investors buy gold as ‘fire and fury’ envelopes markets

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Investors buy gold as ‘fire and fury’ envelopes markets

  • Geopolitical tensions see investors look to gold as a safehaven, with 3rd consecutive week of inflows.
  • Long USD inflows reach the highest level in 18 months, totalling US$27.4mn.
  • Oil ETP outflows continue for 4th consecutive week on OPEC global market rebalancing doubts.
  • Platinum group metals outflows begin as palladium gains divorced from fundamentals.

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Geopolitical tensions see investors look to gold as a safehaven, with 3rd consecutive week of inflows. President Trump’s recent ‘fire and fury’ comments about the simmering tension over the North Korean nuclear situation have sparked gold to life. The gold price has rallied over 2% as investors have flocked to the metal as a portfolio hedge against risk. Certainly, with the spike in the VIX and the decline in global equity markets since the escalation in geopolitical risk, such portfolio rotation towards more defensive investments have been justified.

Long USD inflows reach the highest level in 18 months, totalling US$27.4mn. Investors appear to be indicating that the case for tighter US policy is more justified than for other major developed economies: the UK is beset by Brexit related fears, while the Eurozone and Japanese inflation pressure is almost non-existent. Meanwhile USD futures market positioning has slumped to the lowest levels in over three years – since May 2014. The inflows for the USD ETPs have been broadly split between the British Pound, the Japanese Yen and the Chinese Renminbi.

Oil ETP outflows continue for 4th consecutive week on OPEC output cutback doubts. Investors have withdrawn US$64.6mn from long oil ETPs – the fourth consecutive week of outflows – as crude prices have rebounded nearly 7% over the past week. Oil has certainly lost its lustre for investors, despite a strong stock withdrawal from the US and continued rhetoric from the International Energy Agency about demand being set to recover in the second half of the year, in turn rebalancing the global oil market. With peak seasonal demand coming close to an end and OPEC’s meeting in Abu Dhabi – forecast by some to provide a dressing down to poorly complying members – being a non-event, investors feel that the prices are reaching a near-term peak. We continue to expect that oil is likely to remain rangebound between US$40-55/bbl.

Platinum group metals buck the precious metals trend, with outflows totalling US$12.4mn. The ‘other’ precious metals have largely industrial applications and therefore have little perception as safehaven assets. After strong gains, particularly in palladium, investors have begun to take profits. Palladium’s first outflows in five weeks comes after 33% run up over 2017, which appears somewhat divorced from fundamentals. Futures market positioning, nonetheless, remains near multi-year highs.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

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This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (”CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (”HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (”HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (”SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (”FXL”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (”MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (”OSL”), ETFS Equity Securities Limited (”ESL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (”GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, MSL, OSL and ESL, the ”Issuers”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the ”Company ”). Each Issuer (apart from SCSL) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a ”Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the ”Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended).

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Investors continue to rotate into cyclical assets

Investors continue to rotate into cyclical assets

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Investors continue to rotate into cyclical assets

  • While investors pared back their defensive positions in gold and precious metal baskets, they built positions in technology equities, industrial metals and commodity FX baskets.
  • Inflows into robotic themed ETFs (US$7.2mn) and cyber security themed ETFs (US$6.4mn) were the highest in five and three weeks, respectively.
  • Industrial metals receive inflows for the fourth consecutive week.

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Technology-themed ETFs see multi-week high inflows. Both robotic and cybersecurity ETPs have seen stellar inflows since their inception. Last week’s inflows of US$7.2mn and US$6.4mn respectively into robotic and cybersecurity ETPs marked the highest in five and three weeks. In the past year, robotic themed equities have returned close to 39%, while cybersecurity themed equities have returned close to 21%.

Industrial metal basket ETPs receive inflows for the fourth consecutive week. There were US$13.2mn of inflows into industrial metal baskets last week. A raft of upside surprises in Chinese data releases last week continued the positive momentum for industrial metals prices. Chinese industrial production, retail sales and GDP all beat expectations. China is the largest consumer of industrial metals and continued growth in its economy indicates that its demand for these commodities is unlikely to abate. We remain positive on Chinese economic growth at least until the end of this year as the country aims to maintain an even keel in the run-up to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

Investors favour silver over gold. Last week’s inflows of US$17mn marked the third consecutive week of inflows into long silver ETPs. Meanwhile long gold ETPs saw outflows of US$28.5mn and long precious metal baskets saw outflows of US$5.6mn. With continued signs of economic strength, investors have sided with silver as it has higher upside potential in periods of cyclical growth. While we believe that gold will end Q2 2018 roughly flat at today’s levels, silver could rise more than 10% and bring the elevated gold to silver ratio back down closer to historical average levels. We believe that upside inflation surprises will benefit both metals, but with greater industrial usage and continued mine supply deficit, silver is better positioned in this point of the economic cycle.

Commodity FX baskets see highest inflows since April. In a further sign that investors are getting more optimistic about cyclical assets – in particular those that are exposed to commodities – investors bought US$7.7mn of commodity FX baskets. Following an increase in policy rates by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian Dollar jumped to the highest level in 13 months, which could signal that demand for underlying oil demand is recovering. The Norwegian Krone has also appreciated to a nine-month high as the recent rally in oil prices has lifted the currency.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Director, Commodity Research at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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