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Rates going up…maybe not so fast

When examining the fixed income market outlook within the Euro zone, inevitably the discussion turns to Italy, and what the potential ramifications of this ongoing budget saga will be. Of course, the direction of European Central Bank policy (ECB) is closely linked here, but if we were to turn our attention to the broader economic outlook, how would that discussion pivot? Based upon recent data, it appears as if the widely held view that interest rates are poised to move higher may have to be revisited.

That being said, it is not as if we don’t think that Euro zone rates will, at some point, move higher, but the timing and magnitude of any potential increase could ultimately impact investment decisions. As we saw in the US, the ‘runway’ for an elevated rate setting can be much longer than expected, and traditional factors such as growth, inflation and central bank policy, do not always move in tandem.

Figure 1: Euro zone Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI)

Source: Bloomberg, as of 23 November 2018. Data for Italy and Spain only goes up to 31 October 2018. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

With respect to Euro zone economic numbers, one could be easily forgiven for concluding that, perhaps, the peak in activity occurred last year. It’s not as if we are expecting a recession, but based upon recent data, a steady slowing in growth appears to be a potentially likely scenario. To provide some perspective, Euro zone real GDP rose up to +2.4% in 2017, but current consensus forecasts are looking for a reduced pace of +2.0% for this year and +1.7% for 2019.

The latest growth readings within the Euro zone certainly stood out, and not necessarily for positive reasons. German GDP came in at -0.2% in Q3 2018. This was weaker than expected and followed on the heels of a +0.5% gain in Q2 2018. In addition, it represented the first decline since 2015, and while it did reflect some temporary factors such as reduced auto production due to emissions testing, according to the statistics office, it was also the result of a drop in both exports and consumption. While the car production aspect could be reversed in upcoming data, the trade and consumption components certainly bear watching. For the Euro zone as a whole, growth also slowed to +0.2%, or half the pace of the prior period, and the lowest reading in four years.

Another important economic indicator to keep your eye on are the PMI reports. For the Euro zone and countries such as Germany, France, Italy and Spain individually, the readings seemed to have hit their peaks in late 2018/early 2018 and have been on a steady descent ever since (see figure 1). For the entire Euro zone, the latest figure fell to its lowest level in almost four years, highlighting the potential for further economic slowing.

Conclusion

Needless to say, this scenario has raised the debate regarding potential ECB action. While these numbers will more than likely not prevent the beginning of balance sheet normalization (expected to be announced at the 13 December 2018 policy meeting), it could push the ECB into a ‘later rather than sooner’ timetable for the first rate hike. For the record, the implied probability for this first rate hike has now been pushed out past October 2019, as of this writing.

Source of data unless stated otherwise: Bloomberg, 14 November 2018.

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Will Eurozone bonds go ‘back to the future’?

Headlines surrounding the Italian budget saga and sovereign debt ratings have certainly garnered their fair share of interest within the global bond markets. Interestingly, the heightened anxiety level has produced fears of another potential contagion event, as investors witnessed during the ‘Grexit’ 1 episode. Naturally, that has raised the question of whether Eurozone bond markets could experience a “back to the future” moment; in other words, reliving the past.

When contemplating the possibility of such a scenario developing, it is rather useful to examine how various Eurozone sovereign debt markets have behaved in this latest bout of uncertainty, more specifically looking at the countries that were full participants in the Grexit contagion event (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland). These four nations were deemed the periphery countries of the Eurozone, and as the reader will recall, were at the centre of concern, not only if Greece elected to leave the Euro, but also due to their own respective fiscal/financial challenges at the time.

Figure 1: 10-year government bond yield spreads vs. German bunds

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, 29 October 2018. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. Note: Ireland bond data was discontinued between 11 October 2011 15 March 2013.

The initial results are in, and thus far, the concerns raised regarding Italy have been confined to Italy and have not yet spread to the other three aforementioned countries. A valuable tool in discerning potential ‘contagion’ fears lies in the yield difference, or spread, between an asset that is viewed as being more of a safe-haven, such as the 10-year German Bund and the like maturity sovereign issues of the other countries in question. As figure 1 clearly reveals, this most recent bout of concern has stood in stark contrast to the Grexit experience. Indeed, the ‘Grexit experience’ really captures the issues that were confronting not just Greece, but the other four periphery countries as well and lasted from roughly mid-2010 to mid-2013 or so.

Let’s look at some the numbers or spread levels for perspective. The peak period of duress was captured between 2011 and 2012. At that time, Portugal experienced the most notable spread widening versus the bund, with the peak differential ballooning out +1560 basis points (bp) in January 2012. For Spain and Italy, the peak readings were +639bp and +553bp, respectively. So, where are we now? The Portugal 10-year spread stands at +150bp as of this writing, with Spain coming in a bit narrower at +117bp. On a year-to-date basis, both readings are essentially unchanged. Examining developments from a more recent context when the Italian budget and credit rating news started making front-page headlines in late September, the Spanish 10-year spread widened out only 19bp, while for Portugal the increase was also on the more modest side of 16bp. What about Italy? The Italian 10-year BTP/bunds spread has risen by almost +140bp year-to-date, and +65bp from late September.

Where do we go from here? The recent actions from both Moody’s and S&P ratings agencies seem to have lifted a veil of uncertainty on the Italian government bond market, at least for now. For the record, Moody’s did lower the actual rating for Italy a notch to Baa3, but shifted their outlook to ‘stable’. For S&P, the rating itself was left unchanged at BBB, however the outlook was downgraded to ‘negative’. In the immediate aftermath of the S&P announcement, the Italian 10-year yield fell 35bp from its most recent peak, with the BTP/bund spread narrowing 25bp.

Conclusion

Despite the fact the worst credit rating fears were not realized, the potential for continued negative headlines has not been removed. To be sure, S&P noted the Italian budget outlook will remain a key area of contention in their lowering of the sovereign outlook. The EU’s ‘negative opinion’ regarding Italy’s budget will more than likely be a saga that continues to play out. In fact, the recent disappointing print of zero growth in Q3 GDP quarter/quarter does not bode well on the budget front either. While contagion is always a risk if developments were to spiral downward from here, the lack of a clear-cut trend for the other periphery countries up to this point has been somewhat encouraging but stay tuned the outlook remains a volatile one.

All data from Bloomberg as of 29 October 2018.

1 Refers to Greece’s possible withdrawal from the Eurozone, which made frequent news headlines from 2012 to 2015.

By Kevin Flanagan

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A mixed outlook for commodities in 2018

Commodities have enjoyed a great start to 2018, from the low point mid-December they have rallied 6.5%, the performance has been broad-based too, driven not only by the Iran issues inflating the oil price but a rally in industrial/precious metals and agriculture. A mixed outlook for commodities in 2018.

We are wary of some who are interpreting this as being a positive sign for broad commodities this year. Commodities as an asset class are a very heterogeneous group and we expect varied performance from each. So to start the year we thought we would provide a brief summary of our views.

Gold

Although we expect the Fed to continue to tighten policy, we think the downside risks to gold prices are limited because real interest rates will remain depressed as inflation gains pace in the US. However, a shock event, such as an equity market correction, could force gold prices higher. On balance we see little change in gold prices in the coming year. Investors continue to be optimistic about gold despite the rising interest rate environment, we believe this is due to investors now seeing gold as an insurance policy from geopolitical concerns rather than investment.

Gold price Forecast

Most of the variation in gold price in our bull and bear cases (compared to our base case) comes from assumptions around investor positioning. Many measures of market volatility are currently subdued. However, several risks – both political and financial – exist. Sentiment towards gold could shift significantly depending on which of these views dominate market psyche.

In our bull case scenario, where we would see a more dovish Fed, gold could rise to US$1420. There are also numerous risks which can push demand for gold futures higher:

• Continued sabre-rattling between US/Japan/South Korea and North Korea;
• The proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalates;
• A disorderly unwind of credit in China;
• Italian policy paralysed by the inability to form a government after the election;
• Catalonian independence pushing Spain close to civil war
• A potential second general election in Germany; and
• Market volatility measures such as the VIX (equity), MOVE (bond) spike as yield-trades unwind

In our bear case, we assume the Fed delivers four rates hikes in 2018 as it tries to anchor inflation expectations. 10-year nominal Treasury yields rise to 3.3% by the end of the year, while the US dollar appreciates. By year-end inflation falls back to 1.6%. In this scenario we assume that the absence of any geopolitical risk or adverse financial market shock. In this scenario gold could fall to US$1110/oz by end of 2018.

Crude Oil

In 2018, US production will likely hit an all-time high, surpassing the cycle peak reached before the price war in 2014 and above the 10 million barrel mark last hit in 1970. There is little indication that the backwardation in futures curves is going to stop US production from expanding. Unless investors are constantly reminded of geopolitical risks, the price premium tends to evaporate within a matter of weeks.

Inventories have been declining across the OECD although we are unlikely to see the decline in inventories continue. US shale oil production can break-even at close to US$40/bbl. With WTI oil currently trading at US$60/bbl, there is plenty of headroom for profitability and we expect a strong expansion in supply.

Break even by play

In late 2017, OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC partners posted their best level of compliance with the production curb deal to date. We think that compliance in the extended deal announced end-November will fall short of expectations in 2018. Russia’s insistence on discussing an exit strategy and a review in June 2018 indicates that the patience of non-OPEC partners in the deal is wearing thin.

With the US expanding supply and OPEC likely to under deliver on its promise to consistently curb production, we expect the supply to grow. At the same time demand is unlikely to continue to grow at the current pace, with prices having gained 33% over the past year.

We expect the oil price to remain in a range from US$45 to US$60/bbl for 2018, although a significant geopolitical upset in the Middle East could cause temporary price spikes.

Industrial Metals

We expect the star performer for 2018 to be industrial metals. They are likely to benefit the most from improving EM growth, at the same time we expect supply to remain in deficit in 2018 as the lack of investment in mining infrastructure continues to bite.

Emerging market (EM) demand is crucial for commodity markets as they represent 70% of industrial metals demand. In this respect, we expect any weakness in commodity prices to be largely offset by solid demand growth, again led by China. Although concerns remain over the build-up of debt, Chinese policymakers have continued to show a willingness to support the financial system with stimulus to ease financial conditions.

Since industrial metal prices began to fall in 2011, capital expenditure by miners collapsed. In mid-2017 capital expenditure by the largest 100 mines was 60% lower than in mid-2013. Given the long lag times behind investment and completion of mines, we don’t expect the tightness of mine supply to reverse any time soon.

Miners have been cautious to increase spending as they wait for the price recovery to prove sustainable. Historically we have seen about a year-long lag between a recovery in price and a recovery in capital spending. It is likely in 2018, as commodity prices continue to rise, that we see capital expenditure growth turn positive, although the damage of 4 years of lack of investment in to mining infrastructure has already occurred and is why industrial metals remain in a supply deficit.

Miners margin vs Supply/Demand

Historically we have found that metal markets begin to move towards a balance two years after miner profit margins hit rock-bottom. Miner margins fell to a low of 2% at the beginning of 2016 and since have recovered to just over 7%. So if we see a repeat of historical patterns, we should see supply begin to improve in late 2018, but it could take years to move back into balance.

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.

Equity markets are being complacent on Italy & Europe

The Italian referendum yesterday signified a worrying trend for the rest of Europe in confirming the rise of populist parties in the EU, and particularly important given that 70% of Europe have elections in 2017. Equity markets are being complacent on Italy & Europe. It is not clear what will happen in Italy but we feel the markets are being complacent, as in the longer term it could threaten Italy’s EU membership. It may also be difficult to form a coalition with consequent repercussions for bank recapitalisations. 7 out of the top 10 banks in Italy have non-performing loans (NPLs) as a percentage of total loans above 14%, having not fallen much in recent years, in stark comparison to the rest of Europe where NPLs have fallen to 4.7%, and the US where they are only 1%. This comes at a time when these banks need to raise US$20 billion in the coming months to help cover these losses and turning to households to participate in bank recapitalisations is likely to further stoke populism. Looking at polling data in many European countries highlights that populist parties are either leading or gaining in the polls. The agendas of these populist parties have focused on a break from the incumbent political establishment. With the parties tending to over-promise, developing simple policies with mass appeal, irrespective of their ability to be delivered. There do seem to be some key drivers of today’s rise in populism, primarily high inequality, generated by stagnant economic and wage growth alongside increasing cultural diversity. Although inequality in Italy is much higher than Austria which may go some way to explain why the Austrian elections didn’t result in a far right government. As inequality and cultural diversity issues cannot be reversed overnight and so many large countries in Europe have elections, we believe uncertainty is likely to remain elevated in the coming year, favouring safer, lower volatility assets. Whilst rising populism doesn’t always end up with the political incumbent losing, some populist policies are typically implemented to assuage the disenfranchised, which are likely to have an inflationary impact. The tail risks are high.

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments. James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.

President Elect Trump– Geopolitical & Market Implications

President Elect Donald Trump’s ability to resonate with the populist mood has proven successful – populism in the developed world is on a worrying rise. We have collated what we believe are the most important investment implications of Donald Trump winning the US election.

Politics

The uncertainty around Trump’s political agenda and the possible increase in protectionist measures could weigh on global trade and ultimately dampen the global economic outlook, favouring bonds over equities
It is likely there will be panic amongst Nato allies in the Baltic states as Putin may decide to use Donald Trump’s friendly relationship to position troops in the region
In Europe in 2017 there are elections in France, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria and potential for an election in Italy. In these regions many populist parties are either leading or rising rapidly at present leading to further market volatility in 2017

Currencies

Currency vigilantes are likely to act. A sharp fall in the USD will result as uncertainty over trade and foreign policy jumps
Rising FX volatility is another negative for the GBP. GBP moves inversely to volatility and will likely sell-off against major currencies. JPY and CHF will be the big gainers under a Trump Presidency
MXN will experience a sharp fall as anti-Mexican sentiment from Trump is likely to depress investor optimism about the future of NAFTA and the benefits that accrue to Mexico from free trade

Equities & Gold

Donald Trump has been critical of loose monetary policy and is likely to seek a new governor with a more hawkish outlook when Yellen’s tenure is complete. Investors are likely react negatively to this monetary policy uncertainty
Furthermore, US equities are trading at a 50% premium to their long-term cyclically adjusted valuations, making them more vulnerable to a sell-off. Consequently, some equities are likely to hit their limit down (5% fall) and therefore have trading suspended
A weak USD is likely to benefit the S&P100 as 50% of revenues are derived from abroad, although, in the shorter-term they are likely to decline too.
A Trump win is likely to drive gold prices higher as investors seek a haven asset in a similar manner to what we saw during Brexit. Gold miners will likely benefit as they have a 2.4x beta to the gold price
Donald Trump has pledged $550bn of infrastructure spend, having control of both the House and the Senate means he has a higher chance of getting these proposals approved. Industrial stocks that maintain civil infrastructure are likely to benefit from higher opportunities for government projects under Trump