The FED has made a policy mistake. Looking at the traditional checklist of fundamentals that the FED watches when making interest rate decisions, most suggest the FED should be hiking rates now.
The list of fundamentals and our view on them:
Core inflation is now at 2.3%. Recent rental data and medical costs have risen whilst the downwards pressure on goods caused by the unseasonably warm winter also look to be ending suggesting there will be continued upwards pressure. Core PCE has risen to 1.7%. The greater weighting of medical costs in this measure and current general trend suggest it could rise to 2% by the end of the year. The FED expects this to occur at end-2018.
The NAIRU range (FOMC Central Tendency), which refers to the level of unemployment below which inflation will begin to rise, was published yesterday as 4.7%-5%. The lower end of the range was downgraded again, habitual FED behaviour recently. Current unemployment of 4.9% is in the middle of this “variable” NAIRU range and suggests rising employment will soon begin having an inflationary impact on the US economy.
Wage figures put annual growth falling to 2.2% but a recent calendar quirk accounts for this fall. Adjusting for this the true rate of wage growth it is probably closer to 2.6%.
Payrolls data has been strong recently posting an increase of 242k. A figure above 200k typically denotes a growing economy. Furthermore the gains in employment were strong across most sectors, with weakness in manufacturing, which now represents only 9% of the US economy.
The FED has been reluctant to acknowledge the rise in core inflation, with their position being one of waiting to see more data. Historically this behaviour has been very common late in the cycle and it typically leads to the FED panicking later and having to hike rates too aggressively, potentially causing a recession.
In our view the FED has now highlighted that the traditional metrics for rate hikes are less important, and that asset price stability has a much greater importance. This implies that FED is now being dictated to by the markets. Ignoring the fundamentals and focusing on what the market says is when policy mistakes are made.
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James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities
James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments.
James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.
Fortsatt stora inflöden i guld ETP investerare söker säkerhet i volatila marknader
Börshandlade guldprodukter (“ETPer”) är fortsatt populära då investerare söker sig till säkrare tillgångar. Inflödena till ETF Securities guld-ETPer fortsätter för sjunde veckan i rad mot bakgrund av volatila aktiemarknader. Vi ser fortsatt stora inflöden i guld ETP investerare söker säkerhet i volatila marknader
“Enligt våra modeller är guldpriset varken över- eller undervärdet just nu men om det kommer en större sättning i marknaden kan det göra att guldpriset skjuter i höjden. Investerare köper guld som en försäkring mot ett scenario som tidigare verkade osannolikt men nu framstår som mer troligt. Investerare är mest oroliga över geopolitiska spänningar och störningar på finansmarknaderna”, säger James Butterfill, ETF Securities chef för analys och investeringsstrategi.
”Inflödena i guld-ETPer fortsatte att öka under förra veckan, trots att S&P500 stigit något samtidigt som terminerna indikerar minskande volatilitet på aktiemarknaderna. Detta har troligen att göra med att investerarna inte har mycket annat att välja på när det kommer till defensiva positioner. Europeiska Centralbanken verkar inställd på att fortsätta stötta marknaderna med kvantitativa lättnader och negativa räntor, vilket bör lyfta guldpriset. Guld är en reell tillgång som investerarna känner större trygghet i jämfört med till exempel en valuta som de anser håller på att urholkas”, fortsätter James Butterfill.
”Vi har haft inflöden på över 1 miljard amerikanska dollar sedan början på året, vilket motsvarar 55 % av alla kapitalinflöden till europeiska guld-ETPer under 2016. Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) är den mest handlade guld-ETPn i Europa i år[1]”, säger Townsend Lansing, chef för ETF Securities ETCer. ”Guld har alltid varit basen i vårt erbjudande och vi är mycket glada att investerare fortsätter se ETF Securities som en ledare inom området.”
Bakgrundsinformation
ETF Securities – Det intelligenta alternativet
ETF Securities Group är en av världens ledande innovatörer inom börshandlade produkter (ETPer) och erbjuder specialistinvesteringslösningar för investerare runt om i världen, vilket gör det möjligt för dem att på ett intelligent sätt bygga upp och diversifiera sina portföljer.
Vi är pionjärer och utvecklade exempelvis världens första börshandlade guldprodukt. Idag erbjuder vi ett av det mest innovativa sortimenten inom specialist-ETPer, vilket omfattar råvaror, valutor, aktier och räntor. Med denna pionjäranda, vår oöverträffade expertis och genom att arbeta med ledande partners, tar vi fram de mest intressanta investeringsmöjligheterna och göra dem tillgängliga för investerare som det intelligent alternativet.
För ytterligare information, vänligen kontakta pressavdelningen på:
T: +44 (0) 20 7448 4330
E: press@etfsecurities.com
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[1] Källa: Bloomberg, ETF Securities, 19 februari 2016
