Etikett: Palladium

Platinum Strike Premium has been Removed

Platinum Strike Premium has been Removed

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AMCU agrees to take an offer to workers, possibly ending the 21-week strike

The strike premium on the platinum price appears to have been removed following news of a possible agreement between the three biggest producers and the AMCU. Platinum is now trading below the levels seen before the strikes began in January, indicating markets have overreacted to the news. We remain bullish both platinum and palladium and believe that prices will recover in the coming months.

  • Platinum and palladium prices dropped sharply as Amplats, Implats and Lonmin announced an “in principle” agreement has been reached with the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU).
  • This could bring to an end the 21-week long strike that has seen the loss of over 1moz of platinum and over 500koz of palladium, according to our calculations. Representatives of the three biggest producers and of the AMCU will meet today to seal the deal.
  • We believe platinum will be the most hit by the news of a resolutions as over 70% of production of the metal is concentrated in South Africa. However, given the minimal strike premium priced into platinum prices now and a pick-up in global demand, we believe the correction will be short-lived.
  • While a strike resolution will reduce immediate uncertainty and put downward pressure on prices, it will be some time before most mines are brought back to working condition, with some mines at risk of permanent closure or permanent reduction of production capacity.
  • In addition, after a sharp run-down in PGM inventories by both producers and consumers, inventories will have to be re-built.
  • With the US economy picking up, China reflating and Europe and Japan demand stabilising, platinum and palladium demand is expected to quite substantially outstrip supply in 2014 and into 2015.
  • Johnson Matthey forecasts platinum and palladium to see deficits equivalent to 14% and 15% of global demand in 2014.
  • On our estimates, the metals are trading below their cash operating costs. As we write, platinum is currently trading around 20% below the estimated cash operating costs per platinum equivalent ounce. Therefore, in our view, the current price drop may represent an opportunity for medium to long-term investors to accumulate the metals at attractive prices.
  • We continue to target platinum and palladium prices to rise to US$ 858/oz and US$1,550 respectively in the next six months.

For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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When being made within Switzerland, this communication is for the exclusive use by ”Qualified Investors” (within the meaning of Article 10 of Section 3 of the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (”CISA”)) and its circulation among the public is prohibited.
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Silver and Copper see Strong Inflows as ECB Easing Boosts Risk Appetite

Silver and Copper see Strong Inflows as ECB Easing Boosts Risk Appetite

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The European Central Bank’s strong policy moves announced last week to spur growth and strong US employment data added to investor confidence in the global macro outlook, boosting interest in commodities broadly and more cyclical metals in particular. The gold price also rose on news of aggressive monetary measures taken by the ECB, as the metal often trades as an alternative hard currency.

Long silver ETPs see highest inflows in 10 weeks. Inflows of US$20.9mn last week show that investor enthusiasm for the metal that usually trades in gold’s shadow is growing. With global economic growth rising, prospects for the metal, used in many industrial applications, are improving. Silver is likely to post another supply deficit this year, following last year’s trend, further tightening the market. Despite the US imposing higher tariffs against Chinese solar panel imports last week, its new climate change policy announced last week is likely to lift the demand for photovoltaics in general. Solar panels are the fastest segment of demand growth for silver fabrication, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% over the past decade and are now as significant as photography in terms of sources of silver demand.

ETFS Copper (COPA) sees $18.1mn of inflows, the highest in a month. Investors appeared to view the drop in the copper price to a month low as a good buying opportunity. The price has been weighed on by an investigation into warehousing in China’s Qingdao port that investors worry could unwind financing deals using the metal as collateral. In our view, underlying real demand for the metal in China remains robust. We expect that as negative sentiment and speculative activity subsides, investors will again focus on tightening supply-demand fundamentals and continue to target a copper price of around US$7,500/tonne.

Gold ETPs see the biggest outflows since September 2013 as investors continue to rotate into more cyclical assets. Although the gold price rose on Thursday following the ECB’s decision to cut interest rates and press on with other monetary easing measures, the gold price ended the week lower as markets focused on the potential for further US dollar strength. In our view, however, with positioning already heavily negative gold, the gold price now trading near its marginal cost of production and developed market equity markets looking heavily stretched, we view the gold price as these levels as relatively cheap insurance against the possibility the current consensus positive macro views are wrong.

Profit taking drives US$15.8mn out of ETFS Aluminium (ALUM). Marking the largest outflow since November 2013. Aluminium has been the best performing industrial metal this month, gaining 4.7% as China tries to address oversupply in domestic production.

ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) saw its largest outflow since July 2013. Taking profit on a 1.1% rise in price, palladium investors sold US$12.2mn into the rally last week. With courts having thrown out the AMCU union’s request to stop the miners communicating directly with their employees in South Africa, an end to the prolonged strike does not appear to be getting any closer.

Key events to watch this week. China’s money supply, lending and production data will be in focus as investors watch to see the impact the government’s recent stimulus measures are having on the world’s second largest economy.

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For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this communication or its contents.

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Så här stor del av råvarumarknaden kontrollerar Ryssland

Så här stor del av råvarumarknaden kontrollerar Ryssland

Så här stor del av råvarumarknaden kontrollerar Ryssland. Många placerare följer noggrant den geopolitiska oron mellan Ryssland och Ukraina. Oavsett om politik är något som intresserar människor är det av stor betydelse för den som agerar på de finansiella marknaderna, något som i synnerhet gäller de som är verksamma på råvarumarknaden. Så här stor del av råvarumarknaden kontrollerar Ryssland.

Detta beror på att Ryssland är en stor producent av råvaror, både när det gäller energi i form av olja och naturgas, metaller som platina, palladium och nickel, gruvdrift och jordbruk.

Detta gör att investerare blir oroliga för den inverkan Ryssland dominans på råvarumarknaden kan få på priserna på olika råvaror. Ryssland står i dag för 13 procent av den globala oljeproduktionen och 14 procent av den globala naturgasproduktionen.

Internationella samfundet överväger ytterligare sanktioner mot Ryssland.

Betydelsen av de ryska energiflödena till både Ryssland, i form av skatter och licensavgifter och i USA och Europa (via eventuella effekter på tillväxt och inflation) gör att sannolikheten att det kommer att genomföras någon form av energirelaterade sanktioner är osannolik.

Sanktioner för vissa metaller som platina, palladium och nickel är också osannolika eftersom dessa metaller kan vara svåra att ersätta på marknaderna i Europa och USA med tanke på Rysslands stora andel av den globala produktionen.

Palladium Price to Benefit From Continuing Supply Deficits

Palladium Price to Benefit From Continuing Supply Deficits

ETF Securities – Palladium Price to Benefit From Continuing Supply Deficits

We believe the palladium price has the potential to perform strongly over the next few months on a combination of price supportive supply and demand fundamentals. Supply side issues in the two main producer countries, Russia and South Africa, coupled with better than expected Chinese growth and early signs of a European recovery are likely to support the palladium price going forward. Currently the palladium price is 13% below the high reached on February 2011. We think the decline has been overdone and expect price gains over the next six to twelve months to be underpinned by strong fundamentals.

Strong Deficit Expected
The palladium market experienced a large deficit last year and demand is expected to outstrip supply by at least 850 thousand ounces in 2013 equivalent to 10% of global supply, according to a number of industry experts. With supply structurally limited by falling ore grades and the expected depletion of Russian government stocks, the palladium price appears to be in a good position to benefit from the recent pick-up in auto sales.

Demand Side
With over 65% of palladium demand coming from autocatalysts,the palladium price is strongly linked to the outlook for vehicle sales in China and the US, the two biggest auto markets in the world. Combined annual sales in China and the US amounted to over 35 million vehicles in 2012 and were up 14% in the nine months to September 2013 compared to a year earlier. However, this sharp rise appears not to have been reflected in the palladium price yet (Figure 2). With China auto sales expected to surpass 20 million2 this year and US light vehicle sales forecasted to climb to
15 million3, we believe palladium price has upside potential.

Supply Side
Palladium mine supply has been declining by an annual rate of 2% since 2007.  Norilsk Nickel, the biggest producer of palladium, recently announced a 3% cut in production for 2013. While a pick-up in palladium utilisation in catalytic converters since the mid-1990s has resulted in a sharp increase in supply from recycling, it might not be enough to compensate for dwindling mine supply and the depletion of Russian government stock sales. Decreasing ore grades in the two biggest producing countries, Russia and South Africa, are also likely to cap any upside production potential in palladium supply going forward.

Outlook
The palladium market is likely to remain plagued by a structural deficit due to a combination of increasing demand for autocatalysts and declining supply. We believe that the palladium price has strong upside potential. From a technical point of view, the palladium price appears to be well supported, after having breached its 50dma and 200dma a few weeks ago (Figure 4). We identify the next resistance level in the region of US$760-780oz. Should this be breached, palladium is expected to return to trade above US$800oz, targeting the 2011 highs of US$858oz.
Watch the video summary of this research note, published by Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

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Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

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Ädelmetallerna rusar – ETF och ETC alternativ

Ädelmetallerna rusar – ETF och ETC alternativ

Ädelmetallerna rusar – ETF och ETC alternativ. Ädelmetallerna har rusat på senare tid på förväntningar om nya stödprogram från världens centralbanker. Idag kom ECB med ett nytt obligationsköpprogram. Köpen kommer att vara obegränsade i storlek. Detta gav ytterligare stöd för prisutvecklingen på ädelmetallerna: guld, silver, platinum och palladium. Under den senaste månaden har silverpriset stigit med över 16 procent, palladium 12 procent, platinum 11 procent och guld med över 5 procent, i svenska kronor.

För utveckling över den senaste tolvmånadersperioden i lokal valuta, se grafer nedan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

För tillgängliga ETF:er och ETC:er som är fysiskt replikerande, dvs äger underliggande, se tabell nedan:

[table id=462 /]

 

Källa: Factset, 6 september, all avkastning i SEK