The overnight flash crash for Sterling suggests that thin liquidity and computerised trading algorithms were at play, after a sharp 6% decline pushed Sterling to 31-year lows. While the trigger for the GBP plunge remains uncertain, we can, with a good degree of certainty, rule out that fundamental information was the cause. GBP takes a mysterious pounding.
Currency trading in the Asian session (when the crash occurred) is typically lighter than the European or US sessions for GBP in terms of liquidity. GBP traded a narrow range in yesterday’s European and US sessions, suggesting that there was little in the way of new fundamental information available for currency traders. Potential causes for the GBP plunge were large derivative positions being triggered, algorithmic trading or just human error, the so-called ‘fat finger’.
While investors remain bearish on Sterling, and with good reason, we feel that the prior 15% move down since the EU Referendum fully priced in the bad economic news to come. Futures positioning remains weak, but has not extended. Additionally, we have not seen any large bearish changes in exchange-traded product (ETP) flows, something that usually occurs when fundamental information is behind the currency moves.
Indeed, investors in the ETP space have started to believe that GBP was making a floor, based on fund flows. Currency ETPs tracking short GBP exposures recorded the most significant outflows in two months, with US$12mn withdrawn last week. Meanwhile, inflows into ETPs tracking long GBP exposures were the largest in over two years, since June 2014, recording over US$3mn last week.
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Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – Sterling oversold?
Highlights
Sterling crashed overnight as a combination of heavy selling and limited liquidity sent the currency spiralling. Sterling oversold?
Markets are pricing in a “hard” Brexit scenario and an overly pessimistic economic outlook for the UK.
Current levels are attractive for UK investors to hedge FX risk and lock in recent gains on international allocations.
Threat of “hard” Brexit pressures GBP
Sterling has had its worst week since the referendum, turning sharply lower and experiencing an overnight “flash crash” as markets digested Theresa May’s speech last Sunday, which offered up some valuable details of the “Government’s plan for Brexit”. The speech, delivered to the annual Conservative Party conference, outlined what many have interpreted as the first steps towards a “hard” Brexit, whereby the UK removes itself from the single market. In response, Sterling has plunged to 31- year lows and was even struck by a bout of sharp selling upon the Asian open this morning, pushing it temporarily to as low as the 1.18 level (see GBP takes a mysterious pounding). The sharp decline appears to be largely speculative in nature and in our opinion has little grounding in fundamentals. As such, we see current levels as an attractive longer term opportunity to short the Sterling via the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP and a favourable level for UK investors to hedge foreign currency risk.
Iterative process
In our opinion, May’s speech was less a direct indication of a “hard” Brexit but rather a description of the first steps in a largely iterative process that will form the basis of Brexit proceedings. May made it clear that once EU law is transposed into British legislation any changes and amendments would be subject to “full scrutiny and proper Parliamentary debate”. This suggests that concrete details on economic matters, such as future status of trade and business relations with the EU, could take years to crystallise. As such we feel the pullback in the GBP is largely overdone as investor’s price in an overly pessimistic economic scenario.
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Rebound ahead
Technical indicators of momentum and speculative positioning both point to the GBP being oversold. Speculative short positions towards the GBP are at record highs while both the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs are trading over 6% away from their respective 100 daily moving average (DMA). Current levels therefore look attractive points for UK investors with US or continental European assets to establish tactical currency hedges, locking the recent foreign currency gains in their international allocations. The pairs also offer an attractive opportunity for those with a longer term horizon to gain long Sterling exposure at favourable levels.
In addition, the Bank of England is unlikely to loosen monetary settings further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on the 3rd November. Despite previously stating that “a further cut” is expected “during the course of this year” we don’t believe that current UK economic conditions warrant such action. This removes downward pressure on the GBP from monetary accommodation in the coming months.
Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:
Currency ETPs
GBP Base
ETFS Long EUR Short GBP (GBUR)
ETFS Short EUR Long GBP (URGB)
ETFS Long USD Short GBP (GBUS)
ETFS Short USD Long GBP (USGB)
USD Base
ETFS Long GBP Short USD (LGBP)
ETFS Short GBP Long USD (SGBP)
3x
ETFS 3x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB3)
ETFS 3x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE3)
ETFS 3x Long GBP Short USD (LGB3)
ETFS 3x Short GBP Long USD (SGB3)
ETFS 3x Long USD Short GBP (USP3)
ETFS 3x Short USD Long GBP (PUS3)
ETFS 3x Long EUR Short GBP (EUP3)
ETFS 3x Short EUR Long GBP (SUP3)
5x
ETFS 5x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB5)
ETFS 5x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE5)
Basket
ETFS Bullish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LGBB)
ETFS Bearish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SGBB)
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Commodity ETP Weekly – Long oil ETP inflows at a 17 month year high
Investors injected US$113mn into long oil ETPs suggesting they expect current price weakness to be temporary.
Sterling on the other hand is likely to remain weak for longer as the Bank of England cut the Bank Rate to a new record low and expanded its stimulus package by another £170bn.
While investors continue to pile into gold ETPs, robotics and cybersecurity ETPs are gaining traction.
As the first signs of economic slowdown in the UK start to emerge in the wake of the EU referendum, members of the Bank of England’s MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) last Thursday unanimously voted to cut interest rates to a new historical low of 0.25%. While the rate cut, the first one since 2009, was widely expected, the Bank of England cut its growth forecast for 2018 to 1.8% from 2.3% and unleashed a huge expansion of its stimulus package adding £70bn to its bond purchase programme and allowing banks to borrow up to £100bn thanks to its new funding scheme.
Investors increased exposure into long oil ETPs by the most since March 2015 as WTI fell below US$40/bbl. Last week saw net inflows of US$113mn into long oil ETPs as well as outflows of US$4mn from short oil ETPs as the price of WTI fell below the US$40/bbl. early last week. The unusual increase of oil inventories in the US for the second consecutive week is weighing on the price of both oil benchmarks despite gasoline inventories showing a large drawn-down for the first time this summer. Petroleum inventories in the US tend to decline during the summer driving season. We expect WTI crude inventories to follow gasoline inventories and start to decrease in coming weeks.
Gold continues to see inflows as it trades near a 2-year high. Last week saw US$74.4mn inflows into gold ETPs. While initially rising due to monetary expansion in the UK and fiscal expansion in Japan, gold slid following a bullish US non-farm payroll release. The recent decline could generate a fresh-round of buying as investors seek to shore up hedges in their portfolio.
Robotics and cybersecurity gain traction. Viewed as the sectors of the future, we believe that both robotic and cybersecurity are likely to perform well if held in a portfolio for the long term due to their stable revenues. Equity indices exposed to robotic and cyber stocks rose 7% and 9% respectively over the past month while the ETPs saw net inflows of US$27.2mn and US$10.7mn respectively over the same period.
Short sterling and long euro, the leitmotif in the FX market. Following the Bank of England decision to cut its policy rate and expand its quantitative easing, the British pound fell by 1.6% against the Euro generating inflows of US$6.4mn into short GBP ETPs. Combined with the strong US non-farm payroll the following day, Sterling was down 2.4% against the US dollar. We are likely to see further downward pressure on the pound in the near term.
Key events to watch this week. China trade balance for July came higher than expected this morning as China imports dropped by 5.7%. The country is due to release a number of other indicators over the course of the week including CPI, retail sales and industrial production. UK 3 month GDP estimate for July will be closely watched along with UK and US retail sales.
Video Presentation
Edith Southammakosane, Multi-Asset Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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The view from the back of the queue – GBP in focus
The view from the back of the queue. GBP in focus. The British Pound is plumbing 30-year lows against the US Dollar, after the shock of the EU Referendum result. GBP/USD has plunged around 11% since the EU Referendum vote, highlighting the mistaken expectations of financial markets. Uncertainty means elevated market volatility in coming weeks, with investors likely to remain defensive in their portfolio allocations in FX markets.Unsurprisingly, GBP is exhibiting the highest implied volatility in the G10. Options markets are indicating that Sterling is expected to weaken against all currencies in coming weeks.
The decision to leave the EU not only puts in question the UK’s relationship with the EU, but with trading partners globally. Only last month US President Obama indicated the UK would move ‘to the back of the queue’ in terms of trade negotiations. The final structure of an EU agreement will be determined by the upcoming withdrawal negotiations. Any protectionist tendencies from the EU are likely to have a relatively immediate adverse impact on costs and growth of the UK economy. Economic and political uncertainty will have a permanent negative impact on the domestic UK economy, as businesses postpone investment and employment activities. Softer economic numbers could begin to flow through in late 2016 and 2017.
Political uncertainty surrounding the Conservative party leadership is also keeping investors on edge. The new leadership for the Conservative party is expected to begin the EU withdrawal process for the UK. Market confidence is only likely to return with greater clarity over the timing and structure of the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
We expect a flattening of the Gilt curve, as concern over the implications of the EU referendum for UK growth weigh on inflationary expectations. Lower long-end yields are likely to keep GBP under pressure and we expect the US Dollar and Yen to remain well bid in the near term, as volatility remains elevated. In the medium term, falling inflationary expectations is likely to put pressure on the Bank of England to take further stimulatory action, another negative for GBP.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
BREXIT – Uncertainty to Reign Supreme We have seen a classic fear trade in Gold and Sterling this morning with a reversal of the complacent relief rally we saw earlier this week. BREXIT – Uncertainty to Reign Supreme
The biggest moves have been expressed in the Sterling, which has sold off against the US dollar to levels not seen since 1985. Gold has risen in value by 6%, the largest move since January 2009 but so far ranks only in the top 20 daily moves, with the largest being 13.3% in January 1980.
• The fear trade may well be justified as it brings into question the cohesion of the EU project, other member states are now likely to consider referendums stoking EU break-up fears.
• For the UK the next key question to consider is when will Article 50 be invoked? This states the formal mechanism for leaving the EU and details a 2 year timeline for departure. UK politicians may attempt to delay invoking article 50 in order to buy time and informally negotiate with EU member states, leading to further uncertainty.
• There could be another Scottish referendum
• Economist forecasts for UK GDP growth in the coming years vary from -9% to +2% highlighting significant uncertainty over the real impact on the economy
• Gilt and Bund yields are likely to fall in the long-end as growth and deflation fears escalate
• Expect cyclical equities to sell off the most, particularly financials and the energy sector, whilst healthcare and utilities are to be seen as safe havens
• A July and September rate hike for the FED is now off the table
• Gold could rise to $1400 whilst other precious metals such as platinum, offer attractive fundamentals
In this environment uncertainty will reign supreme, when will it subside? this is an open-ended question…
James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities
James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments.
James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.
