Etikett: BRL

Världens aktiemarknader återhämtade sig starkt i mars månad

Världens aktiemarknader återhämtade sig starkt i mars månad

Världens aktiemarknader återhämtade sig starkt i mars månad Stabilt första kvartal för infrastrukturfonder
Update Q-1 2016 – UB EM Infra och UB Infra

Världens aktiemarknader återhämtade sig starkt i mars månad, även om tillståndet för den globala och framförallt den amerikanska ekonomin fortfarande är oroande. Bägge våra infrastrukturfonder har haft en stark månad i mars – EM Infra [+7,49% ]och Infra [+4,03%], och har även en positiv avkastning för Q-1, 2016. Infrastrukturbolag har klarat årets turbulens på de globala aktiemarknaderna mycket bra. De låga räntorna gör att investerare alltmer söker sig till bolag som har en god direktavkastning med stabila kassaflöden såsom infrastrukturbolag.

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Tabell. Avkastning för våra infrastrukturfonder UB Infra och UB EM Infra och respektive jämförelseindex.
Källa; Bloomberg och UB Real Assets. Period 2011-04-12—2016-04-12. Risk= volatilitet i % /år

UB EM Infra

Aktiemarknader i tillväxtländer har haft ett mycket starkt första kvartal 2016, till följd av högre råvarupriser och en fortsatt duvaktighet från centralbankerna. UB EM Infra [och tillväxtmarknader generellt] hade en exceptionellt stark månad i mars då fonden steg med 7,49%. Under motsvarande period steg MSCI EM [TR in EUR] med 7,97%. Den positiva utvecklingen i fonden beror på framförallt på makro/politiska händelser t.ex rörelsen i den Brasilianska marknaden. Vi har fortsatt att öka exponeringen mot Brasilien [nu ca 10,2% av fonden], men bolag i Kina/Hongkong utgör fortfarande portföljens största innehav [14.3% resp 33.4%]. Aktier i mainland Kina har bidragit negativt till fondens utveckling, medan infra bolag i Hong Kong bidrog positivt till fondens utveckling.

Summerat var valutaeffekten negativ på fondens avkastning under Q-1, där BRL och MYR apprecierade (+), medan HKD och SGD deprecierade (-) mot Euron. De flesta infra bolagen är i en tillväxtfas men denna tillväxt påverkas naturligtvis av att den underliggande ekonomin saktar in. Värderingarna på infra bolag ser rimliga ut om man jämför mot den generella ekonomiska tillväxten i respektive ekonomi. EM aktier har haft en mycket sämre utveckling än aktier i utvecklade länder men någon gång ska detta vända. Frågan är väl bara när?

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Tabell 2. Geografisk – och sektorallokering UB EM Infra per 30 mars 2016

UB Infra

UB Infra fonden är upp 3,53% första kvartalet 2016. Den positiva utvecklingen kan bland annat hänföras till att amerikanska infra bolag inom gas och elektricitet har haft en mycket gynnsam utveckling – t.ex. Exelon, Spectram, Questar och Columbia Pipeline Group. Brittiska infra bolag [11,3% av fondens värde] har i EUR -termer utvecklats negativt, till följd av det brittiska pundets depreciering mot Euron. Fonden har dock klarat sig relativt bra då vi haft en valutahedge på plats (50% av positionerna). Överlag har hedgandet av valutorna USD och GBP mot Euron bidragit positivt till fondens avkastning. Vi ser även en positiv tillväxt i Airports Services [11,5% av fondens allokering per sektor]. Flygtrafiken har fortsatt att växa i rask takt och förväntas göra så framöver. M&A aktiviteten i speciellt USA har varit hög inom gas och elektricitet. Vi ser många Utility aktier i USA på ”all-time high”, vilket gör att vi minskat innehaven i dessa till förmån för mer rimligt värderade bolag i Europa. En annan marknad som kan vara av intresse senare under 2016 är den Japanska infra marknaden [portföljvikt=2,3% nu], där Japanska infra bolag tappat i värde då aktiemarknaden har fallit.

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Disclaimer

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Bearish bets on coffee hit record high

Bearish bets on coffee hit record high

Trade Idea – Commodities – Bearish bets on coffee hit record high
26th November 2015

Coffee prices to remain depressed

•         Last week the BRL staged a 3% rally as the incumbent Brazilian President, Dilma Rousseff, won a political victory aimed at narrowing the country’s growing budget deficit. The strengthening of the BRL sent the price of Arabica coffee soaring 8% from 23 month lows (see Figure 1, Source: Bloomberg) and partially reversed a downward trend that has plagued the soft commodity since the end of last year. Brazil is the largest global exporter of Arabica coffee and the recent weakening of its currency has, until September, significantly weighed on the coffee price[1]. In coming months, we expect support from favourable currency movements to fade and a strong coffee supply outlook for 2016/17 crop year to weigh on price, benefiting those investors with tactical short exposure to coffee.

Speculative coffee positioning reaches record low

•         According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), short bets on coffee swelled to the highest level on record in the week to Nov 17 (see figure 2), reflecting the bearish sentiment that has dominated coffee trading until last week’s recovery. We believe that bearish sentiment will reassert and help to push coffee prices lower as soon as BRL strength abates. The Brazilian economy is currently under considerable duress as stagflation and political turmoil weigh on the nation’s prospects. Therefore, we believe that the optimism that has fuelled the recent BRL appreciation is fragile and will likely fade as the economy slips further into recession and political uncertainty persists.

Favourable supply outlook

•         The Brazilian harvest for 2015/16 is almost complete and despite the 2014 drought prompting forecasts of a large fall in production, output has only fallen 3% YoY (Source: United States Department of Agriculture). Looking ahead to next year, good rain in key producing regions is helping the flowering process of Brazilian coffee trees which should aid coffee cherry development and in turn increase the likelihood of a strong yield from the 2016/17 harvest.

•         Elsewhere, Columbia and Honduras have seen production grow 40% and 46% respectively over the past five years as tree renovation programmes, aimed at combatting coffee rust (disease that affects coffee plantations), pay considerable dividends (see Figure 3). Given that both are top five global exporters of coffee (third and fifth respectively) this trend will likely be another source of pressure on coffee prices in the near future.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Coffee
•         ETFS Coffee (COFF)
•         ETFS 2x Daily Long Coffee (LCFE)
•         ETFS 1x Daily Short Coffee (SCFE)
•         ETFS 3x Daily Long Coffee (3CFL)
•         ETFS 3x Daily Short Coffee (3CFS)
•         ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Coffee (ECOF)
•         Swiss Franc Daily Hedged Coffee (CCOF)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.
[1] Brazilian coffee suppliers increase output as a weaker BRL means that their produce become cheaper on international US Dollar denominated markets.

 

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