FX Market Refocuses on Central Banks

ETFSEC FX Market Refocuses on Central BanksFX Market Refocuses on Central Banks

FX Market Refocuses on Central Banks ETFS Currency Weekly

A weekly overview of global currency market developments. The report details the past week’s performance of G10 currency pairs and currency baskets, directional model signals for the week ahead, longer-term consensus currency forecasts, futures market positioning data and a macroeconomic commentary on the FX market.

Summary

FX Market Refocuses on Central Banks

US dollar continues to strengthen as Fed signals policy normalisation

TLTRO flop for ECB

Sell the Union

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Regional reports

United Kingdom Sterling (GBP)

Europe: Euro (EUR)
Switzerland: Swiss Franc (CHF)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
Webb etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Commodity currencies under pressure as FX volatility rises

Commodity currencies under pressure as FX volatility rises

ETFS Currency Weekly Commodity currencies under pressure as FX volatility rises A weekly overview of global currency market developments. The report details the past week’s performance of G10 currency pairs and currency baskets, directional model signals for the week ahead, longer-term consensus currency forecasts, futures market positioning data and a macroeconomic commentary on the FX market.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

 

Summary

FOMC a risk for US Dollar

ECB TLTRO take-up key for Euro

Scottish election uncertainty negative for British Pound

Regional reports

United Kingdom: Sterling (GBP)

Europe: Euro (EUR)

Switzerland: Swiss Franc (CHF)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Monetary Policy Remains Key FX Performance Driver

Monetary Policy Remains Key FX Performance Driver

Monetary Policy Remains Key FX Performance Driver. A weekly overview of global currency market developments. The report details the past week’s performance of G10 currency pairs and currency baskets, directional model signals for the week ahead, longer-term consensus currency forecasts, futures market positioning data and a macroeconomic commentary on the FX market.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Summary
•    JPY resilience unlikely to last
•    Carney inflation testimony in focus for GBP
•    USD to rebound after FOMC weakness

Regional reports
United Kingdom: Sterling (GBP)

Europe: Euro (EUR)
Switzerland: Swiss Franc (CHF)

For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Grafen som får investerare att sälja aktier – Euro

Den 1 januari 1999 införs Euron i elva länder (även i Grekland men först 2001). De länder som ingår i den s.k. Eurozonen är Belgien, Finland, Frankrike, Grekland, Irland, Italien, Luxemburg, Nederländerna, Portugal, Spanien, Tyskland och Österrike. Danmark, Sverige och Storbritannien väljer att inte införa euron (bra val?).

1 Januari 1999 var valutakursen mot USD, EUR/USD, 1,17. Medianen sedan 1999 fram tills igår har varit 1,25 Euro per US-dollar. Denna nivå bröts igår. Idag fortsätter Euron att försvagas och valutakursen börjar nu närma sig växelkursnivån 1,24.

Varför är det viktigt att titta på denna valutaklass? Anledningen till att Euron försvagas är de stora problemen i Sydeuropa. Allt fler börjar nu på allvar tro att Grekland kommer att lämna Euron och att detta kan ske ”okontrollerat”. Vidare tror allt fler investerare att spridningseffekterna efter Greklands kollaps kommer kunna knäcka länder som t.ex. Spanien och Italien i den första vågen. Detta har lett till att investerare säljer Euro-tillgångar och köper US-dollar tillgångar. Det är i denna graf  EUR/USD som man nu kan se den s.k. ”fear trade” som pågår i dagsläget. Det traditionella VIXX eller ”fear indexet” har inte hängt med i de senaste veckornas rörelser och signalerar fortfarande en ”lugn” marknad.

Källa: Factset, 1 januari 1999 – 29 maj 2012

Källa: Factset, 1 januari – 29 maj 2012

 

5 steg så ska du analysera guld

Jag har sett många olika analyser på hur guld och guldpriset ska analyseras. I detta inlägg kommer jag att sammanställa alla dessa på en och samma gång. Jag kommer att gå igenom följande fem steg i min analys:

  1. Antal utestående guldkontrakt på råvarubörsen COMEX
  2. Förändring i förvaltat kapital för noterade guld-ETF:er (fysiska)
  3. Valutakursutveckling EUR/USD
  4. Momentum
  5. Korrelation

1. Antal utestående guldkontrakt på råvarubörsen COMEX

Antal utestående guldkontrakt på COMEX har minskat signifikant sedan toppen i november 2010. I grafen nedan kan vi dock se att antalet utestående kontrakt har bottnat ur och sakta vänt uppåt från 400 000 nivån till dagens nivå på cirka 430 000 kontrakt (22 maj 2012).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Källa: Factset, avser utestående guldkontrakt på COMEX under perioden 16 maj 2010 – 22 maj 2012

2. Förändring i förvaltat kapital för noterade guld-ETF:er (fysiska)

Trots att guldpriset har sjunkit kraftigt sedan årsskiftet har förvaltat kapital eller asset under management (AuM) inte sjunkit. Detta betyder att investerare har hållit kvar sina guldinnehav. Sett utifrån årskiftet har de flesta ETF:erna haft en positiv utveckling i förvaltat kapital (omräknat till svenska kronor).

[table id=362 /]

 

Källa: Factset, 22 maj 2012, AuM i miljoner kronor, nettoförändring i AuM i procent

3. Valutakursutveckling EUR/USD

En starkare dollar innebär ett lägre guldpris eftersom guld prissätts i dollar. Nedan graf visar tydligt att US-dollarn har stärkts signifikant mot Euron. I dagsläget handlas Euron på ATL nivåer jämfört med US-dollarn. Detta förklaras av oroligheterna i Sydeuropa. Detta har påverkat guldpriset negativt. Precis tvärtom vad många trodde – ”Flight-to-safety”.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4. Momentum

I dagsläget handlas guldet under 50-dagars och 200-dagars glidande medelvärden. Detta betyder kortfattat att guldpriset är inne i en negativ trend. För aktuella nivåer och aktuellt pris, se graf nedan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nedan presenteras 50 och 200-dagars glidande medelvärden i absoluta tal (lokal valuta) och i relation till gårdagens stängningskurser för utvalda ETF:er/ETC:er. Ett värde för 50 eller 200-dagars glidande medelvärden överstigande 1 tyder på positiv trend och allt under 1 tyder på en negativ trend. De som handlar utifrån en momentumstrategi säljer därmed när värdet går under 1 och köper när det går över 1.

[table id=363 /]

 

Källa: Factset, 22 maj 2012

4. Korrelation

Historiskt har guld haft en negativ korrelation mot aktiemarknaden. Detta betyder att guldpriset stiger i värde när aktiemarknaden faller. I dagsläget har guld en svagt positiv korrelation sett mot OMXS30 (0,19) och mot MSCI World (0,11), sett utifrån 2 års daglig korrelation. Detta betyder att guldpriset tenderar att stiga i värde när börsen går upp. De senaste dagarna har dock guldet haft en negativ korrelation jämfört med aktiemarknaden.

Slutsats

I dagsläget ger inte investeringsflöden i guld, COMEX och AuM förändringar, någon tydlig bild (netural)

EUR/USD handlas under den korta och den långa trenden och kommer sannolikt göra detta fram tills nyvalet i Grekland den 17 juni (negativ)

Momentum är negativ dels på kort sikt, dels på lång sikt (negativ)

Korrelationen på 2-års sikt är positiv, vilket är negativt för en investerare. En investerare vill ha en tillgång med negativ korrelation, då detta minskar risken i portföljen. På kort sikt har guldet rört sig som det ska. (netural)

Slutsatsen är att jag avvaktar att investera i guld tills dess att guldpriset bryter 50-dagars glidande medelvärde. Fram tills dess har jag en neutral inställning till guld. Övriga analyspunkter måste också ge en positiv bild innan jag köper.