Etikett: Oil ETP

Cyclical commodities rally, but investors remain defensive

ETF Securities Cyclical commodities rally, but investors remain defensiveCyclical commodities rally, but investors remain defensive

Commodity ETP Weekly – Cyclical commodities rally, but investors remain defensive
•    Investors continue to seek safety in gold, with over US$193mn inflows driving gold to top sector flows.
•    Oil ETP inflows moderate as price surge defies underlying build-up in inventories.
•    Copper inflows buck the industrial metals trend, as a modest rebound in risk appetite lifts prices.

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Date: 17 March 2016 | Time: 3.00 pm (GMT) | Duration: 50 minutes

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  • Investors continue to seek safety in gold, with over US$193mn inflows driving gold to top sector flows.
  • Oil ETP inflows moderate as price surge defies underlying build-up in inventories.
  • Copper inflows buck the industrial metals trend, as a modest rebound in risk appetite lifts prices.

Investor defensiveness boosts ytd gold inflows over US$1.2bn. Although there are some early signs of a moderation in market turbulence, investors very much remain in a defensive stance, driving the eighth consecutive week of inflows into physical gold exchange traded products, totaling US$193.6mn last week. In the futures market, positioning also reflects ongoing optimism regarding the price of gold, with net longs rising by over 20% last week.

Oil ETPs receive inflows for 11th consecutive week. Crude oil benchmark prices (both Brent and WTI) managed to stay in positive territory above the US$30/bbl level last week, helping buoy investor sentiment. The oil price rallied in spite of another larger-than-expected build in stockpiles in the US last week, taking inventories to the highest level on record (EIA data goes back to 1982). And while Saudi Oil Minister Naimi saying that production cuts aren’t going to happen, it appears that rumours of another OPEC meeting in March to freeze production are keeping prices supported. Inflows totalled US$9.0mn, the lowest in eight weeks.

Platinum receives the largest inflows in 10 weeks, totaling US$6.5mn. Platinum has shrugged off some of the recent pessimism, recording strong gains as global auto sales remain robust. Despite US and Chinese auto sales at record levels, palladium has been the laggard in the precious metals sector, weakening over 12% on a ytd basis, compared with an average gain of around 11% for other precious metals in 2016.

Second week of inflows into diversified industrial metals ETPs as risk appetite rises. Although modest, last week’s inflows into broad basket industrial metals ETPs (US$2.6mn) represent the largest in 18 weeks. Copper also bucked the industrial metals trend recording the only inflows into individual metal ETPs. Copper ETPs received US$4.1mn, the largest in two weeks. Tighter demand- supply fundamentals are providing price support, with all metals rallying over the past month, with the exception of nickel (-2.4%).

Key events to watch this week. This week’s data sets the stage for the key upcoming central bank meetings in March for the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. Eurozone CPI, which has disappointed in recent months could be the deciding factor for whether the ECB’s is able to meet market expectations by enacting fresh QE measures. Meanwhile, the focus in the US will be manufacturing and jobs data. A change in investor risk appetite and its impact on the US Dollar are the likely channel by which commodity markets will be influenced. If expectations of additional central bank stimulus rise, cyclical commodities should continue to lift. However, if the US data is positive, a more hawkish stance for the Fed is likely to buoy the USD and weigh on prices.

Video Presentation

Martin Arnold, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

Commodity ETP Weekly – US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

•  Short-lived gold rally boosted demand for gold ETPs.

•  Increasing interest in Energy ETPs.

•  Inflows into short copper persist.

•  Platinum sell-off deepens.

•  ETF Securities will be hosting a Q4 update on the 8 October to look at trends for commodities, equities and currencies – register here to attend

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Last week commodities diverged, largely trading on their individual fundamentals. Palladium was the best performer, gaining 8% as investors fear a consumer backlash against diesel autocatalysts following the scandal at Volkswagen (which could favour palladium-heavy gasoline autocatalysts). Industrial metals were hurt again last week as the Caixin China PMI manufacturing data came out weaker than expected, although this week’s official PMI reading will offer more clarity on the strength of manufacturing demand. Late last week, the Federal Reserve Chair reiterated that a rate rise is still on the cards for 2015, which could pose a threat for commodity prices as the US dollar strengthens.

Short-lived gold rally boosted demand for gold ETPs. US$16.6mn of net inflows was invested into gold ETPs last week as gold gained 3.3%, closing at US$1,154.50/oz on Thursday. However, Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen cut the rally short when she confirmed late Thursday that interest rates could still rise by the end of the year. US dollar strengthened on this announcement and gold price pared its gains to US$1,146.20/oz. by the end of the week. The price of gold is likely to remain very volatile in the run-up to the next Fed meeting scheduled at the end of October.

Increasing interest in Energy ETPs. Energy ETPs recorded net inflows of US$7mn, mostly into ETFS Energy (AIGE) and natural gas ETPs. At this time of the year, the natural gas futures curve typically switches from backwardation into contango as the restocking season between April and October comes to a close and US demand for heating increases, supporting demand for gas ahead of the winter season. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts natural gas price at an average of US$2.84/MMBtu for 2015. Year-to-date average price currently stands at US$2.77/MMBtu, suggesting that investors are likely to benefit from a long position into the commodity. Meanwhile, oil ETPs recorded net outflows last week, mainly from WTI ETPs, on the back of profit taking. A 17.4% rebound in WTI oil since its August low, has driven three consecutive weeks of outflows from WTI ETPs.

Inflows into short copper persist. Last week saw net inflows of US$4.5mn into ETFS Short Copper (SCOP) marking the second consecutive week of inflows into the product as ETP investors as investors have become bearish on the metal following weaker-than-expected flash manufacturing PMI data in China. Net positions into copper contracts listed on the LME and COMEX however indicate a reversal of market sentiment. China official manufacturing PMI scheduled for later this week will provide further clarification.

Platinum sell-off deepens. Platinum ETPs recoded net outflows of US$9.3mn as platinum price reached its lowest level in 6 years. Palladium ETPs saw US$1mn of inflows, following its 8.0% rally. Lower platinum prices could hurt platinum miners’ economic sustainability further. With the global average cash costs of production at US$1,209/oz. (GFMS), maintaining current levels of production is difficult and we could see the supply deficit deepen this year.

Key events to watch this week. US non-farm payrolls data will be closely scrutinized as the Fed’s next move is ever more dependent on signs of labour market strength. Official Chinese PMI’s will help confirm whether the weakness in the Caixin numbers were an aberration or a trend.

Video Presentation

Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Precious Metals and Cyclicals Continue to Diverge

Precious Metals and Cyclicals Continue to Diverge

Commodity ETP Weekly Precious Metals and Cyclicals Continue to Diverge

Weekly oil ETP inflows highest in four years

Silver, often regarded as a leveraged play on gold was a key beneficiary of the SNB’s shock moves on Thursday.

Flows into long copper ETPs rose to the highest level in 4 weeks after a price capitulation drove bargain hunters to the red metal.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Flows into Oil ETPs continued at the highest rate in four years. As the price of Brent and WTI oil benchmarks fell a further 6.5% and 5.2% respectively as more investors were drawn to bargains. Precious metals traded higher as the Swiss National Bank shocked the market with a surprise move to abandon the Swiss Franc’s cap against the Euro. Gold played true to its reputation as a hedge against the unexpected, gaining 3.6% over the week. With the World Bank lowering its GDP growth forecasts for 2015, industrial metal prices fell across the board as concerns over demand dragged down their performance. Lower input costs, with falling energy prices, have helped pull down the price of industrial metals.

Weekly oil ETP inflows highest in four years. Long Brent oil ETPs received US$103.4mn of inflows last week, the highest since March 2011, while Long WTI oil ETPs gained US$147.5mn of inflows, the highest since May 2010. Last week saw the 16th and fifth consecutive week of inflows into WTI and Brent ETPs respectively highlighting that investors are undeterred by continued falling prices. On Friday the IEA cut its non-OPEC supply growth for 2015 on the back of the price fall, and claimed that it will “raise the call” on OPEC to trim production in the second half of 2015 to an average of 29.8 mb/d, just under the official target of 30 mb/d. Oil prices reacted positively to these forecasts at the end of the week. The spread between Brent and WTI narrowed last week with WTI temporarily trading higher than Brent driven by the speed at which both supply and demand are likely to respond more quickly in the US than elsewhere. We, like the IEA believe that non-OPEC production cuts will be the necessary catalyst for OPEC cuts in the latter half of 2015.

Silver, often regarded as a leveraged play on gold was a key beneficiary of the SNB’s shock moves on Thursday. Silver prices gained 4.6% over the week. Inflows of US$114.9mn into ETF Physical Silver (PHAG) were at their highest since February 2014. Most of those flows came before Thursday’s currency turmoil. The gold to silver price ratio had risen to a multiyear high at the end of 2014, highlighting silver’s relative attractive price as an insurance asset. Interest in hedge-assets has recently increased with the VIX and IVSTOXX showing a marked increase. With Greece going to the polls on Sunday, the market is bracing itself for further discourse in Europe.

Flows into long copper ETPs rose to the highest level in 4 weeks after a price capitulation drove bargain hunters to the red metal. While there were multiple reasons for the 8% decline in copper prices last week including the bearish World Bank growth forecasts and selling by Chinese funds at illiquid times of the day, there was only US$0.5mn of inflows into ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) whereas US$4.8mn flowed into long copper ETPs. Some investors believe we are closer to the bottom in copper prices with demand weakness fully priced-in and the potential for another year of supply deficits ahead. Although the International Copper Study Group has forecast supply surpluses at the beginning of the past two years, we have ended the year in deficit. We could have a déjà vu moment again in 2015.

Key events to watch this week. China’s GDP figures will be closely watched to assess the strength of demand from the world’s largest consumer of commodities. The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce full-blown quantitative easing this week after years of resisting following the US on this path. Discussion of the modalities of the programme will no doubt drive asset price rallies – the direction dependent on how inclusive or restrictive the programme will be.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.