Etikett: SCOP

Commodities back on the agenda

ETF Securities Commodities back on the agendaCommodities back on the agenda

Commodity ETP Weekly – Commodities back on the agenda

•    Inflows into commodity baskets rose to a 16-month high.
•    Gold inflows rose to an 11-week high.
•    Inflows of US$8.7mn into ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) rise to a two year high.
•    Upcoming webinar: Global commodities, have we reached the floor in prices? Register here to attend.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

• Strong inflows into commodity ETPs indicate that commodities are once again an appealing asset class for investors. Inflows into both broad baskets and individual commodities indicate the breadth of interest.
•  Underpinning new commodity optimism in the sector is large cuts to capital spending in mining, smelting and drilling which should restrict the supply of commodities, helping to lift price.
•  Not all investors are bullish as indicated by the flows into gold and short commodity ETPs, as investors remain somewhat polarised on the outlook for global growth.

Inflows into commodity baskets rose to a 16-month high. After spending the last few years as a neglected asset class, commodities are making a come-back in investor portfolios. Inflows last week into ETFS Longer Dated All Commodities GO UCITS ETF (COMF) of US$ 26.2mn, ETFS EUR Daily Hedged All Commodities DJ-UBS EDSM (EALL) of US$8.6mn and ETFS Ex Agriculture and Livestock (XFRM) of US$5.7mn bought flows into diversified baskets to the highest level since July 2014. Baskets are typically popular with investors that have a long/medium term bullish outlook on the sector as a whole without taking a specific call on individual commodities. Underpinning new optimism in the sector is large cuts to capital spending in mining, smelting and drilling which should restrict the supply of commodities, helping to lift price. While developing market manufacturing purchasing manager indices (PMIs) appear subdued, their developed market counterparts remain resilient. German, US, Euro Area and even Chinese Caixin PMIs, released last week, all came in above expectations, indicating potential upside surprise for commodity demand. A strong jobs report from the US last Friday indicates that the growth environment remains supportive enough for a rate hike. This important precondition is likely to limit the downside for commodities from rising rates.

Gold inflows rose to an 11-week high. Marking the seventh consecutive week of flows, investors continued to increase their allocation to gold. Last week’s inflows of US$82.6mn came despite gold prices falling 3.7% in the week to Thursday (-4.7% in the week to Friday) and prospects for a rising real rate environment (typically seen to cap gains for the metal). We believe that the gold inflows indicate that gold as a portfolio and monetary hedge is making a come-back. Gold as a defensive asset often underperforms in times of cyclical bullishness, but acts as a counterweight to negative shocks. The timing of the flows indicate that some investors remain concerned about the economic outlook and the potential for further monetary stimulus to be enacted.

Inflows of US$8.7mn into ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) rise to a two-year high. Lingering concern over the robustness of the Chinese outlook appears to be driving bearish sentiment toward industrial metals. However, the view remains polarised, with long copper ETPs receiving the first inflows in three weeks, totalling US$5mn.

Key events to watch this week. Chinese industrial production data and Euro Area GDP figures will give investors a gauge for how demand for commodities in some of the world’s largest economies is faring, and has the potential to clear up some of the recent ambiguity in growth indicators.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Are commodities at a turning point?

Are commodities at a turning point?

Commodity ETP Weekly – Are commodities at a turning point?

•  Gold at a four-month high.
•  Net inflows into oil ETPs on strong Chinese imports.
•  Shift in copper sentiment.
•  As part of our ”Energy Wars” webinar series we welcome Richard Mallinson, a leading geopolitical analyst at Energy Aspects to join us, to discuss where next for the oil price.
Register here to attend

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Pressure on commodities seems to be easing on the back of technical support and better fundamental prospects. Although China imports fell by 17.7% over the past year to September, demand for some commodities remains resilient. Chinese oil imports so far this year rose 9% compared to the same period last year, while copper imports for September surged 18% compared to September 2014, suggesting that fears over China demand slowdown have been overblown. Despite a rising US Dollar (USD) robust Chinese economic activity should lend support to commodity prices this week. Sentiment towards the asset class is turning with investors increasing exposure to long commodity ETPs.

Gold at a four-month high. Gold rose 3.9% last week, marking the second consecutive week of positive returns and closing at a 4-month high at US$1,184.25/oz. on Thursday. Weaker economic indicators from US and Eurozone early in the week saw gold rally alongside a declining US Dollar. In addition, gold reached another technical support last Wednesday, crossing its 200 day moving average upward, often an indication that price increase is likely to continue in the near term. Inflows into long gold ETPs hit an eight-week high of US$42mn and marking five consecutive weeks of inflows. Gold has retraced some of the gains as US inflation surprised to the upside, in turn boosting the USD. Although rate hike expectations have been brought forward, market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to begin the tightening cycle early next year, lending additional support to the commodities complex.

Net inflows into oil ETPs on strong Chinese imports. Oil ETPs recorded net inflows of US$29mn mainly into ETF WTI Crude Oil (CRUD) and ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL) on strong demand from China. September oil imports were slightly higher than September last year. However China total oil imports so far this year rose 8.8% above its level at the same period last year, suggesting that Chinese demand for the commodity has been strong. Meanwhile larger-than-expected increase in US oil inventories last week weighed on the price of oil. WTI fell 6.2%, while Brent plunged 8.2% over the past week, partially offsetting the previous week’s gains. While the oil market remains amply supplied, strong demand from China combined with falling production in the US should eventually trim inventories and support oil prices in the medium term.

Shift in copper sentiment. Investors appear to be becoming more bullish on copper. ETFS Copper (COPA) recorded net inflows of US$9.1mn (a 10-week high) while ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw outflows of US$31.1mn, marking the most aggressive cut in short ETP positions since June 2014. The International Copper Study Group’s (ICSG’s) data revisions have helped fuelled positive sentiment for copper. The metal has risen 2.5% since the release of ICSG updated figures on 6th of October and 7.3% since its six-year low hit in August. In addition, China copper imports in September 2015 grew 18% year-on-year, underpinning market expectations for tighter market conditions in 2015 and 2016.

Key events to watch this week. While China industrial production for October came below expectations this morning, better-than-expected GDP for Q3 and retail sales should help ease concern over a potential hard landing and lend support to commodity prices this week. Markit manufacturing PMI for October in Europe and the US should provide further colour on the current global demand for metals.

Video Presentation

Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Poor jobs report lends support to gold

Poor jobs report lends support to gold

Commodity ETP Weekly – Poor jobs report lends support to gold

•  Gold ETPs saw net inflows of US$5.5mn ahead of the release of the jobs report.
•  Platinum group metals diverge.
•  WTI oil ETPs receive inflows, while Brent see outflows.
•  ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw outflows of US$5.3mn as investors cut their bearish bets.
•  ETF Securities will be hosting a Q4 update on the 8 October to look at trends for commodities, equities and currencies – register here to attend

Download the complete report (.pdf)

The week ended with a disappointing US labour market report, which has pushed out expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate increase even further. Gold responded positively as investors favour the hard monetary asset against the US dollar, a currency they feel is being debased the longer the policy setting remains ultra-low. This week’s Fed meeting minutes could offer more clues as to when the central will likely raise rates.

Gold ETPs saw net inflows of US$5.5mn ahead of the release of the jobs report. That marked the third consecutive week of gold inflows. While significantly below the inflows of US$16.6mn and US$40.9mn in the prior two weeks, turnover was markedly high. Both large creations and large redemptions were made in the week highlighting the polarized views held by investors. Some investors are encouraged by increasing Chinese gold imports and seasonal demand in India. Other investors viewed the Federal Reserve’s commitment to raise rates this year as a gold-negative development and continued to pare their holdings. We don’t think that a single labour market report will change the timing of the Fed’s decision to raise rates (which we believe will happen in December), but further pronounced data weakness could sway the central bank’s mind.

Platinum group metals diverge. Palladium gained 1.4% last week while platinum lost 2.9%. In the wake of the scandal at Volkswagen, many investors feel that there will be a consumer backlash against diesel cars, favouring their gasoline counterparts. Diesel cars use more platinum in their autocatalysts where as gasoline cars use more palladium. The scandal epitomizes a trend already in place. With tighter emissions regulations in Europe, targeting nitrogen oxide (NOx), as well as carbon monoxide (CO), platinum was already losing favour. Platinum, while very effective at converting CO to less harmful gases, is not quite as good at converting NOx. Palladium is better at removing NOx, encouraging higher loading of the metal in autocatalysts. Platinum ETPs saw US$11.3mn of outflows. Palladium also saw outflows as investors took profit.

WTI oil ETPs receive inflows, while Brent see outflows. Breaking a 14-week streak, Brent oil ETPs saw outflows last week after the price of the benchmark lost 1.0%. WTI sustained a more moderate decline, dropping just 0.4%. WTI oil ETPs saw inflows after a two-week break. Weak oil prices are driving cuts to upstream oil investment and spurring an increase in demand. An output glut will take time to work though, but the path to supply/demand balance could see the oil benchmarks reach the US$60-70/bbl range in the latter half of 2016.

ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw outflows of US$5.3mn as investors cut their bearish bets. Copper gained 0.9% last week as the prospects for supply tightening gathers pace. Major miners such as Glencore have indicated their intention to cut production and we could end up in the sixth consecutive year of a supply deficit if the trend continues.

Key events to watch this week. Investors will be poring over the FOMC meeting minute for further clues as to which committee members are becoming more hawkish. Any sign that the central bank is eager to hit the trigger sooner than December could hurt gold prices.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

Commodity ETP Weekly – US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

•  Short-lived gold rally boosted demand for gold ETPs.

•  Increasing interest in Energy ETPs.

•  Inflows into short copper persist.

•  Platinum sell-off deepens.

•  ETF Securities will be hosting a Q4 update on the 8 October to look at trends for commodities, equities and currencies – register here to attend

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Last week commodities diverged, largely trading on their individual fundamentals. Palladium was the best performer, gaining 8% as investors fear a consumer backlash against diesel autocatalysts following the scandal at Volkswagen (which could favour palladium-heavy gasoline autocatalysts). Industrial metals were hurt again last week as the Caixin China PMI manufacturing data came out weaker than expected, although this week’s official PMI reading will offer more clarity on the strength of manufacturing demand. Late last week, the Federal Reserve Chair reiterated that a rate rise is still on the cards for 2015, which could pose a threat for commodity prices as the US dollar strengthens.

Short-lived gold rally boosted demand for gold ETPs. US$16.6mn of net inflows was invested into gold ETPs last week as gold gained 3.3%, closing at US$1,154.50/oz on Thursday. However, Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen cut the rally short when she confirmed late Thursday that interest rates could still rise by the end of the year. US dollar strengthened on this announcement and gold price pared its gains to US$1,146.20/oz. by the end of the week. The price of gold is likely to remain very volatile in the run-up to the next Fed meeting scheduled at the end of October.

Increasing interest in Energy ETPs. Energy ETPs recorded net inflows of US$7mn, mostly into ETFS Energy (AIGE) and natural gas ETPs. At this time of the year, the natural gas futures curve typically switches from backwardation into contango as the restocking season between April and October comes to a close and US demand for heating increases, supporting demand for gas ahead of the winter season. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts natural gas price at an average of US$2.84/MMBtu for 2015. Year-to-date average price currently stands at US$2.77/MMBtu, suggesting that investors are likely to benefit from a long position into the commodity. Meanwhile, oil ETPs recorded net outflows last week, mainly from WTI ETPs, on the back of profit taking. A 17.4% rebound in WTI oil since its August low, has driven three consecutive weeks of outflows from WTI ETPs.

Inflows into short copper persist. Last week saw net inflows of US$4.5mn into ETFS Short Copper (SCOP) marking the second consecutive week of inflows into the product as ETP investors as investors have become bearish on the metal following weaker-than-expected flash manufacturing PMI data in China. Net positions into copper contracts listed on the LME and COMEX however indicate a reversal of market sentiment. China official manufacturing PMI scheduled for later this week will provide further clarification.

Platinum sell-off deepens. Platinum ETPs recoded net outflows of US$9.3mn as platinum price reached its lowest level in 6 years. Palladium ETPs saw US$1mn of inflows, following its 8.0% rally. Lower platinum prices could hurt platinum miners’ economic sustainability further. With the global average cash costs of production at US$1,209/oz. (GFMS), maintaining current levels of production is difficult and we could see the supply deficit deepen this year.

Key events to watch this week. US non-farm payrolls data will be closely scrutinized as the Fed’s next move is ever more dependent on signs of labour market strength. Official Chinese PMI’s will help confirm whether the weakness in the Caixin numbers were an aberration or a trend.

Video Presentation

Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Global growth risks stays Fed’s hand

Global growth risks stays Fed’s hand

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly – Global growth risks stays Fed’s hand

Highlights

•  Investors turn to gold in times of uncertainty.

•  Investors move into selective broad basket ETPs.

•  Net inflows into short copper ETPs.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

The Federal Reserve refrained from raising rates last week, citing the rising risks around global growth. The US central bank appears to be outward looking compared to the last time it considered raising rates, a generation (9 years) ago. However, the lack of monetary tightening gave cyclical assets little cause for cheer as the market’s focus remained on the dovish sentiment around weakening global demand. China in particular is of concern, with the country targeting a lower rate of economic growth and struggling to stem the slide in its equity market. Little attention however is given to its recovering property market and its relatively robust imports of commodities like copper.

Investors  turn to gold in times of uncertainty. Ahead of the US Federal meeting last Thursday, gold ETPs saw inflows of US$40.9mn over the past week. While the decision to keep interest rates unchanged was generally expected in the futures market, economists were spilt in their forecasts in the week leading to the decision. Gold gained close to 2.15% on Friday, while the US dollar fell 0.6% after the FOMC meeting and end of Friday. Looser monetary policy is seen as currency debasing by some and gold as a hard, defensive asset stands to benefit. Gold ETPs have seen inflows nearly every week since mid-August when gold price broke down the US$1,100/oz. level for the first time as investors have been attracted to the relatively cheap hedge asset. Last week saw the highest inflows into gold ETPs in four weeks and many benefited from the close to 3% return over two days last week. If the current price momentum in gold continues, we are likely to see further inflows into the safe-haven asset in the near term.

Investors move into selective broad basket ETPs. Last week saw net inflows into precious metal, industrial metal and energy broad baskets ETPs. Many investors are rediscovering the diversification benefit of adding commodity baskets to their portfolios in light of their low correlation to other assets. The diversification benefit of a basket is greater than the diversification benefit of a single commodity. Energy broad basket ETPs saw their largest ever net inflows of US$25.2mn. Investors have been attracted to the bargain prices in energy commodities. Total net inflows into energy ETPs now stand at US$117bn since the price of oil fell below US$50/bbl. at the beginning of the year. Industrial metal broad basket and precious metal broad basket ETPs also saw inflows of US$14.3mn and US$9.8mn respectively, suggesting that market sentiment is slowly reversing after seeing outflows for most of this year.

Net inflows into short copper ETPs. After a short rebound, most industrial metals recorded losses again last week, partially offsetting the previous gains. Zinc and nickel were the worst performers, down 5.5% and 4.4% respectively. The severe earthquake in Chile during the night between Wednesday and Thursday temporary boosted the price of copper above US$5,400/ton. ETP investors, expecting the gains to be temporary, chose to short the red metal with US$8.1mn of inflows into ETFS Copper short copper (SCOP), the largest since March 2014.

Key events to watch this week. Existing home sales and durable goods orders from the US are expected to be lower this month than last, underscoring some of the loss in momentum that global risks present. US consumer confidence measured by the University of Michigan, on the other hand, is expected to improve.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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