ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly
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Highlights
Arabica coffee slid 4.2% as Colombian production continues to rise.
FTSE 100 recouped weekly losses after the election result.
Euro downside risk as Greek tension mounts.
Commodities
Arabica coffee slid 4.2% as Colombian production continues to rise. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation reported that the country’s coffee production for April grew 11.06% year-on-year. However, Colombia only produces 11% of global Arabica output. Brazil who produces 45% of global output, has had significant drought damage to its coffee bushes in 2014 threatening the yield in 2015. While some were optimistic about a reversal of that damage due to beneficial rain in Minas Gerais (a key growing area) in recent months, precipitation over the past week has moderated significantly. Added to that, a firmer Brazilian Real removes a catalyst for stock-offloading by Brazilian farmers. We believe that coffee prices could benefit from a tightening in supply from Brazil. While zinc, nickel and copper rose on the hopes of tighter supply this year, aluminum fell moderating the gains from the previous week.
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Equities
FTSE 100 recouped weekly losses after the election result. With markets having braced themselves for chaos, the election results led to a relief rally when a majority government was formed. The MSCI China A-Share index fell 6.4%, moderating its gains after reaching a 7-year high the week prior. A disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMI reading and weaker trade figures deflated some of the optimism in the market. However, that disappointment let to interest rate cut effective today, which should provide the equity markets with a shot of adrenalin. Moreover, with further financial market liberalization on the cards for this year, we expect the domestic equity to undergo a period of secular expansion. This week, a number of Chinese data releases including industrial production and retail sales will help the central bank and investors assess the strength of the near-term growth.
Currencies
Euro downside risk as Greek tension mounts. The Euro has been one of the most volatile currencies this year and this week is unlikely to change that trend. We expect that this week’s Greek negotiations pose a downside threat, especially as the Euro remains elevated against the USD, despite last week’s strong jobs report in the US. We believe the soft patch in US economic activity will begin to fade and support a further rally in the USD. The British Pound was one of the strongest performing currencies last week, following the surprise Conservative majority victory in the general election. Investors will be looking ahead to the Bank of England meeting this week to gauge the central banks desire to hike rates. We expect that tighter policy is a long way off and that GBP/USD will gradually move back toward the levels it was trading at pre-election levels near 1.50.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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