Etikett: precious metal

Largest inflows into commodity ETP baskets since May 2016

Largest inflows into commodity ETP baskets since May 2016 ETF SecuritiesLargest inflows into commodity ETP baskets since May 2016

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Largest inflows into commodity ETP baskets since May 2016

  • Inflows of US$58.5mn into broad commodity ETPs, marks the highest in eight months.
  • Equities have had a strong week with inflows of US$39m. Thematic styles such as Robotics, US small caps and cyber security all saw inflows.
  • Crude oil ETPs see largest outflows in six weeks as investors take profit

Signalling the broad-based interest in commodities, commodity basket ETPs see their highest inflows since May 2016. Following five years of underperformance, commodities made a come-back in 2016. We continue to see interest in diversified commodity baskets as more investors rotate toward the asset class.

Equities have had a strong week with inflows of US$39m. Thematic styles such as Robotics, US small caps and cyber security all saw inflows whilst Australian equities saw US$12.6m inflows. That came despite world equities seeing a decline in performance over the week, suggesting investors are searching for alternative investment styles as valuations rise. Investors are getting noticeably more bearish on broad equities. For example we saw US$16m inflows into short European Stoxx 50 equities and US$15m of outflows in long positions. In terms of thematics, Robotics particularly remain in favour with year-to-date inflows totalling US$50m.

The rout in precious metal that begun after the US presidential election now looks to be over, with inflows into gold of US$59.6m over the last week and US$96.6 since the beginning of the year. Recent payroll figures suggest a mixed employment picture. The FOMC implied that a March rate hike, whilst being data dependent, was unlikely, with a persistence of negative real interest rates most likely in our view.

Crude oil ETPs see largest outflows in six weeks. Outflows from long crude oil ETPs of US$42.1mn followed a 7% rally in oil prices last week as investors took profit. While OPEC is one month into its 6-month production cut, the US continues to increase production. US inventory is rising as more oil rigs come into operation every week in the in the US.

Industrial metals basket ETPs see seven consecutive weeks of inflows. Inflows into industrial metal baskets totalled US$12.9mn. Against the odds, most industrial metals continue to rise. Last week’s surprise announcement from the Philippines that it will close 23 nickel mines sent the price of the metal soaring by 8%.

Largest outflow from long Yen ETPs since September 2015. Investors appear concerned that Yen weakness is here to stay, after divesting funds in ETPs tracking long EUR/JPY positions at the fastest rate since inception(2012), totalling US$4.8mn last week. With inflation expectations rising in Europe, and as the ECB is nearing the limit of its QE activities as it is expected to taper its asset purchase programme toward year-end, the Euro should benefit.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (”CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (”HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (”HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (”SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (”FXL”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (”MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (”OSL”), ETFS Equity Securities Limited (”ESL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (”GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, MSL, OSL and ESL, the ”Issuers”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the ”Company ”). Each Issuer (apart from SCSL) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a ”Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the ”Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended). Italy: When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited. Switzerland: In Switzerland, this communication is only intended for Regulated Qualified Investors. US: This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof, where none of the Issuers, the Company or any securities issued by them are authorised or registered for distribution and where no prospectus for any of the Issuers or the Company has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. Neither the Issuers, the Company nor any securities issued by them have been or will be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the Investment Company Act of 1940 or qualified under any applicable state securities statutes. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Any historical performance included in this communication may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this communication solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance. The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchaser or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of such jurisdiction. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Securities issued by the Issuers and the Company may be structured products involving a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This communication is aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant Issuer or the Company which includes, inter alia, information on certain risks associated with an investment. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may be priced in US Dollars, Euros, or Sterling, and the value of the investment in other currencies will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities of the Issuers or the shares of the Company which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuers and the Company. The relevant prospectus for each Issuer and the Company may be obtained from www.etfsecurities.com. Please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Issuers

General: The FCA has delivered to the regulators listed below certificates of approval attesting that the prospectuses of the Issuers indicated have been drawn up in accordance with Directive 2003/71/EC. For Dutch, French, German and Italian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) have been passported from the United Kingdom into France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands and have been filed with the l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in Germany, CONSOB and the Bank of Italy in Italy and the Authority Financial Markets (Autoriteit Financiële Markten) in the Netherlands. Copies of prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports, can be obtained in France from HSBC France, 103, Avenue des Champs Elysées, 75008 Paris, in Germany from HSBC Trinkhaus & Burkhardt, AG, Konsortialgeschäft, Königsalle 21/23, 40212 Dusseldorf and in the Netherlands from Fortis Bank (Nederland) N.V., Rokin 55, 1012 KK Amsterdam. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) may be distributed to investors in France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. This communication is not a financial analysis pursuant to Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) and consequently does not meet all legal requirements to warrant the objectivity of a financial analysis and is also not subject to the ban on trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis. This communication is not addressed to or intended directly or indirectly, to (a) any persons who do not qualify as qualified investors (gekwalificeerde beleggers) within the meaning of section 1:1 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act as amended from time to time; and/or (b) in circumstances where other exemptions or dispensations from the prohibition the Dutch Financial Supervision Act or the Exemption Regulation of the Act on Financial Supervision apply. None of the Issuers is required to have a license pursuant to the Dutch Financial Supervision Act as it is exempt from any licensing requirements and is not regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets and consequently no prudential and conduct of business supervision will be exercised. For Austrian, Danish, Finnish, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of CSL, HCSL, HMSL, MSL, ESL and FXL have been passported from the United Kingdom into Austria, Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and have been filed with Österreichische Finanzmarktaufsicht (Austrian Financial Market Authority) in Austria, Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority) in Denmark, Finanssivalvonta (Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority) in Finland, Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (Portuguese Securities Market Commission) in Portugal, Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (Securities Market Commission) in Spain and the Finansinspektionen (Financial Supervisory Authority) in Sweden. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for these entities may be distributed to investors in Austria, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Denmark and Sweden. For Belgian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for GBS, CSL, MSL and FXL have been passported from the United Kingdom into Belgium and has been filed with the Commission Bancair, Financiére et des Assurances in Belgium. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for GBS, CSL, MSL and FXL may be distributed to investors in Belgium. For Swiss investors: The prospectus (and any supplements thereto) for SCSL may be distributed to investors in Switzerland. Securities in SCSL are not shares or units in collective investment schemes within the meaning of CISA. They have not been approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and are not subject to its supervision. The Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities are not issued or guaranteed by a supervised financial intermediary within the meaning of CISA. This document does not constitute a prospectus under the Companies (Jersey) Law 1991 and is not an offer or an invitation to acquire securities in SCSL. This document does not constitute a Swiss listing prospectus under the SIX Listing Rules and the SIX Additional Rules for the listing of Exchange Traded Products. This document must be read in conjunction with the Swiss Listing Prospectus. If there is any inconsistency between this document and the Swiss Listing Prospectus, the Swiss Listing Prospectus shall prevail. Detailed information on the terms and conditions of the Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities can be found in the Swiss Listing Prospectus under Part 6 – Trust Instrument and Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities. Other than as set out above investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at info@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered. Securities issued by the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG (”UBS”), Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Merrill Lynch International (”MLI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC”), Bloomberg Finance LP (”Bloomberg”), Société Générale (”SG ”), Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated or any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS, MLCI, MLI, BAC, Bloomberg, SG, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this communication or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

Funds

Austria: Investors should base their investment decision only on the relevant prospectus of the Company, the Key Investor Information Document, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association, which can be obtained free of charge upon request at the Paying and Information Agent in Austria, Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG, Graben 21, A1010 Wien, Österreich and on www.etfsecurities.com. France: Any subscription for shares of the Funds will be made on the basis of the terms of the prospectus, the simplified prospectus and any supplements or addenda thereto. The Company is a UCITS governed by Irish legislation and approved by the Financial Regulator as UCITS compliant with European regulations although may not have to comply with the same rules as those applicable to a similar product approved in France. Certain of the Funds have been registered for marketing in France by the Authority Financial Markets (Autorité des Marchés Financiers) and may be distributed to investors in France. Copies of all documents (i.e. the prospectus (including any supplements or addenda thereto, the Key Investor Information Document, the latest annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and articles of association) are available in France, free of charge, at the French Centralizing Agent, Société Générale, Securities Services, at 1-5 rue du Débarcadère, 92700 Colombes – France. Germany: The offering of the Shares of the Fund has been notified to the German Financial Services Supervisory Authority (BaFin) in accordance with section 310 of the German Investment Code (KAGB). Copies of all documents (i.e. the Key Investor Information Document (in the German language), the prospectus, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association) can be obtained free of charge upon request at the Paying and Information Agent in Germany, HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Königsallee 21-23, 40212 Düsseldorf and on www.etfsecurities.com. The current offering and redemption prices as well as the net asset value and possible notifications of the investors can also be requested free of charge at the same address. In Germany the Shares will be settled as co-owner shares in a Global Bearer certificate issued by Clearstream Banking AG. This type of settlement only occurs in Germany because there is no direct link between the English and German clearing and settlement systems CREST and Clearstream. For this reason the ISIN used for trading of the Shares in Germany differs from the ISIN used in other countries. Netherlands: Each Fund has been registered with the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets following the UCITS passport-procedure pursuant to section 2:72 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act. United Kingdom: Each Fund is a recognised scheme under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and so the prospectus may be distributed to investors in the United Kingdom. Copies of all documents (i.e. the Key Investor Information Document, the prospectus, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association) are available in the United Kingdom from www.etfsecurities.com. None of the index providers of the Funds referred to herein nor their licensors make any warranty or representation whatsoever either as to the results obtained from use of the relevant indices and/or the figures at which such indices stand at any particular day or otherwise. None of the index providers shall be liable to any person for any errors or significant delays in the relevant indices nor shall be under any obligation to advise any person of any error or significant delay therein.

Investing in a politically volatile landscape

Investing in a politically volatile landscape

ETF Securities Outlook 2017 – Investing in a politically volatile landscape

Download our 2017 outlook (.pdf)

ETF Securities is proud to present our 2017 Outlook, Investing in a politically volatile landscape. This outlook, the latest in our triannual series, is a collection of focused research articles encapsulating the main investment themes we believe will be significant during 2017.

Our key theme is the global investment implications of continued and growing populism in Developed Western democracies and how this will fuel further political uncertainty in 2017.

Supporting topics include: debunking the commodity super-cycle myth, implications of a ”Hard Brexit”, is battery technology turning lithium into the next precious metal and an FX outlook for 2017.

Uncertainty surrounding the global political landscape and a move towards more populist leaders in the developed world will continue to be a key driver of financial market volatility in 2017. Now that the US elections are over, investors are likely to shift focus towards Europe, where there are elections in the majority of larger nations and where populists are either leading, or gaining rapidly in the polls. We believe the investment implications should result in an increase in government spending and consequent inflation.

The global recovery appears to be gaining momentum and we believe the US Federal Reserve is still on track to raise rates in December 2016 and throughout 2017. Although, we believe that the Fed will remain cautious due to heightened fiscal uncertainty, more hawkish rhetoric in coming months is to be expected, but is unlikely to change the low/negative real interest rate environment in the US.

So far investors have been buoyed by the more moderate and constructive rhetoric being proffered by President Elect Trump, and the potential for the new government to support growth via fiscal spending. Although the sustenance of the rally in the US Dollar and equity markets therefore depends on the ability of Trump to surround himself with credible policymakers and refrain from irrational policy outbursts.

Currency vigilantes changed the FX landscape in 2016, prompting sharp moves in G10 currencies, stemming from antagonistic investment views. Currency volatility will stay at the forefront of investors’ minds in 2017 exacerbated by ongoing QE policies. Speculation surrounding the tapering of accommodative central bank policy and rising breakeven inflation rates could signal the end of the bond bubble in 2017. However, it is unlikely to be a disorderly move in yields, as bond market liquidity remains little changed notwithstanding a variation in the nature and sources of liquidity.

Commodities have been an area of strength in 2016, and should continue to be so in 2017 with real assets in general likely to benefit from Trump’s proposed infrastructure program. Despite varied fundamental drivers, demand from emerging markets, particularly China, is likely to be a continued source of commodities consumption. Alongside the grind higher in global demand, substantial cutbacks to capital expenditure budgets will restrain supply. The resulting fundamental tightening in underlying conditions should keep the commodity complex well supported in coming years.

Download our 2017 outlook (.pdf)

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Precious metal inflows dominate the landscape defying a stronger greenback

Precious metal inflows dominate the landscape defying a stronger greenback

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Precious metal inflows dominate the landscape defying a stronger greenback

  • Precious metal ETPs surge to US$80mn.
  • Energy ETPs decline for the fifth consecutive week owing to scepticism on OPEC production cuts.
  • Long EUR short USD ETC positions surge to their highest level in 25 weeks.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Gold ETPs made a comeback with US$30mn of inflows after gold prices posted their first weekly gain in four weeks. Sentiment towards gold remains volatile owing to pressure from a firm US dollar and a rising 68% probability for a December rate hike in the US, increasing the opportunity cost of owning gold. Historically, it is expectations of a rate hike that have been supportive of the US dollar and generally negative for commodities, although once rate hikes have occurred, this trend typically reverses. Despite strong fundamentals and increasing uncertainty ahead we expect the trajectory of gold prices in the short-term to remain volatile as investor appetite remains polarised. Net long positions for gold remain at a 71/2-month low according to latest data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Platinum ETP inflows rose for the fifth consecutive week to US$32.4mn, marking its highest inflows since April 2016. The platinum price is showing relative weakness as the discount on platinum versus gold is now at $337.5 per troy ounce, close to the highs last seen on 27 June 2016. In our view strong demand from the global auto sector amidst stringent emission standards and continuation of the supply deficit for the fourth year in a row should support prices.

Outflows from energy ETPs declined for the fifth consecutive week to US$30mn, led by crude oil ETPs. Growing concerns over the credibility of OPEC’s announced production cuts were sparked by comments from Russia’s largest oil producer, Rosneft claimed that Russia could step up its oil production by 4mn bpd sending Brent crude oil prices lower last week. The US Department of Energy reported an unexpected fall in crude oil stocks of 5.2mn barrels owing to a slump in crude oil imports, which was even more significant than the 3.8mn barrels decline reported by American Petroleum Institute (API). Supportive inventory data helped WTI crude oil prices gain 1% last week, prompting further profit taking on crude oil ETPs that declined for the fourth week in a row.

Agriculture ETPs suffered the largest outflows since the start of 2016 amounting to US$19mn, driven by outflows from broad agriculture basket and coffee ETPs. The Arabica coffee price has risen by 40% since its lows at the start of the year owing to a tight supply situation. While Columbia has recorded its best crop in 23 years and Vietnam has also recorded a 3.8% increase in production, a lower crop is anticipated in Brazil (the world’s largest producer of coffee), next year raising the prospects of further upside.

Long EUR short USD ETC Inflows increased by US $16.2mn, as the US dollar continued to trade higher last week following the sharp weakening of the Euro in response to European Central Bank (ECB) easing signals at last week’s policy meeting.

Key events to watch this week. Q3 earnings releases take centre stage and GDP data for the US and UK is to be released on Friday.

Video Presentation

Aneeka Gupta, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (”CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (”HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (”HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (”SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (”FXL”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (”MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (”OSL”), ETFS Equity Securities Limited (”ESL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (”GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, MSL, OSL and ESL, the ”Issuers”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the ”Company ”). Each Issuer (apart from SCSL) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a ”Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the ”Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended).

Italy: When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

Switzerland: In Switzerland, this communication is only intended for Regulated Qualified Investors.

US: This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof, where none of the Issuers, the Company or any securities issued by them are authorised or registered for distribution and where no prospectus for any of the Issuers or the Company has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. Neither the Issuers, the Company nor any securities issued by them have been or will be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the Investment Company Act of 1940 or qualified under any applicable state securities statutes.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this communication may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this communication solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities nor shall any securities be offered or sold to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchaser or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of such jurisdiction. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Securities issued by the Issuers and the Company may be structured products involving a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This communication is aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant Issuer or the Company which includes, inter alia, information on certain risks associated with an investment. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may be priced in US Dollars, Euros, or Sterling, and the value of the investment in other currencies will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities of the Issuers or the shares of the Company which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor.

Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in the securities offered by the Issuers and the Company.

The relevant prospectus for each Issuer and the Company may be obtained from www.etfsecurities.com. Please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Issuers

General: The FCA has delivered to the regulators listed below certificates of approval attesting that the prospectuses of the Issuers indicated have been drawn up in accordance with Directive 2003/71/EC.

For Dutch, French, German and Italian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) have been passported from the United Kingdom into France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands and have been filed with the l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in Germany, CONSOB and the Bank of Italy in Italy and the Authority Financial Markets (Autoriteit Financiële Markten) in the Netherlands. Copies of prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports, can be obtained in France from HSBC France, 103, Avenue des Champs Elysées, 75008 Paris, in Germany from HSBC Trinkhaus & Burkhardt, AG, Konsortialgeschäft, Königsalle 21/23, 40212 Dusseldorf and in the Netherlands from Fortis Bank (Nederland) N.V., Rokin 55, 1012 KK Amsterdam. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) may be distributed to investors in France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

This communication is not a financial analysis pursuant to Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz – WpHG) and consequently does not meet all legal requirements to warrant the objectivity of a financial analysis and is also not subject to the ban on trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis.

This communication is not addressed to or intended directly or indirectly, to (a) any persons who do not qualify as qualified investors (gekwalificeerde beleggers) within the meaning of section 1:1 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act as amended from time to time; and/or (b) in circumstances where other exemptions or dispensations from the prohibition the Dutch Financial Supervision Act or the Exemption Regulation of the Act on Financial Supervision apply.

None of the Issuers is required to have a license pursuant to the Dutch Financial Supervision Act as it is exempt from any licensing requirements and is not regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets and consequently no prudential and conduct of business supervision will be exercised.

For Austrian, Danish, Finnish, Portuguese, Spanish and Swedish Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of CSL, HCSL, HMSL, MSL, ESL and FXL have been passported from the United Kingdom into Austria, Denmark, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and have been filed with Österreichische Finanzmarktaufsicht (Austrian Financial Market Authority) in Austria, Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority) in Denmark, Finanssivalvonta (Finnish Financial Supervisory Authority) in Finland, Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (Portuguese Securities Market Commission) in Portugal, Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (Securities Market Commission) in Spain and the Finansinspektionen (Financial Supervisory Authority) in Sweden. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for these entities may be distributed to investors in Austria, Finland, Portugal, Spain, Denmark and Sweden.

For Belgian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for GBS, CSL, MSL and FXL have been passported from the United Kingdom into Belgium and has been filed with the Commission Bancair, Financiére et des Assurances in Belgium. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for GBS, CSL, MSL and FXL may be distributed to investors in Belgium.

For Swiss investors: The prospectus (and any supplements thereto) for SCSL may be distributed to investors in Switzerland. Securities in SCSL are not shares or units in collective investment schemes within the meaning of CISA. They have not been approved by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and are not subject to its supervision. The Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities are not issued or guaranteed by a supervised financial intermediary within the meaning of CISA.

This document does not constitute a prospectus under the Companies (Jersey) Law 1991 and is not an offer or an invitation to acquire securities in SCSL. This document does not constitute a Swiss listing prospectus under the SIX Listing Rules and the SIX Additional Rules for the listing of Exchange Traded Products. This document must be read in conjunction with the Swiss Listing Prospectus. If there is any inconsistency between this document and the Swiss Listing Prospectus, the Swiss Listing Prospectus shall prevail. Detailed information on the terms and conditions of the Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities can be found in the Swiss Listing Prospectus under Part 6 – Trust Instrument and Swiss Franc Currency-Hedged Commodity Securities.

Other than as set out above investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at info@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Securities issued by the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG (”UBS”), Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Merrill Lynch International (”MLI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC”), Bloomberg Finance LP (”Bloomberg”), Société Générale (”SG ”), Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated or any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS, MLCI, MLI, BAC, Bloomberg, SG, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this communication or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

Funds

Austria: Investors should base their investment decision only on the relevant prospectus of the Company, the Key Investor Information Document, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association, which can be obtained free of charge upon request at the Paying and Information Agent in Austria, Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG, Graben 21, A1010 Wien, Österreich and on www.etfsecurities.com.

France: Any subscription for shares of the Funds will be made on the basis of the terms of the prospectus, the simplified prospectus and any supplements or addenda thereto. The Company is a UCITS governed by Irish legislation and approved by the Financial Regulator as UCITS compliant with European regulations although may not have to comply with the same rules as those applicable to a similar product approved in France. Certain of the Funds have been registered for marketing in France by the Authority Financial Markets (Autorité des Marchés Financiers) and may be distributed to investors in France. Copies of all documents (i.e. the prospectus (including any supplements or addenda thereto, the Key Investor Information Document, the latest annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and articles of association) are available in France, free of charge, at the French Centralizing Agent, Société Générale, Securities Services, at 1-5 rue du Débarcadère, 92700 Colombes – France. Germany: The offering of the Shares of the Fund has been notified to the German Financial Services Supervisory Authority (BaFin) in accordance with section 310 of the German Investment Code (KAGB). Copies of all documents (i.e. the Key Investor Information Document (in the German language), the prospectus, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association) can be obtained free of charge upon request at the Paying and Information Agent in Germany, HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Königsallee 21-23, 40212 Düsseldorf and on www.etfsecurities.com. The current offering and redemption prices as well as the net asset value and possible notifications of the investors can also be requested free of charge at the same address. In Germany the Shares will be settled as co-owner shares in a Global Bearer certificate issued by Clearstream Banking AG. This type of settlement only occurs in Germany because there is no direct link between the English and German clearing and settlement systems CREST and Clearstream. For this reason the ISIN used for trading of the Shares in Germany differs from the ISIN used in other countries.

Netherlands: Each Fund has been registered with the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets following the UCITS passport-procedure pursuant to section 2:72 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act.

United Kingdom: Each Fund is a recognised scheme under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and so the prospectus may be distributed to investors in the United Kingdom. Copies of all documents (i.e. the Key Investor Information Document, the prospectus, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association) are available in the United Kingdom from www.etfsecurities.com.

None of the index providers of the Funds referred to herein nor their licensors make any warranty or representation whatsoever either as to the results obtained from use of the relevant indices and/or the figures at which such indices stand at any particular day or otherwise. None of the index providers shall be liable to any person for any errors or significant delays in the relevant indices nor shall be under any obligation to advise any person of any error or significant delay therein.

 

Energy ETPs all the rage

Energy ETPs all the rage

ETF Securities Commodity Research: Review of 2015 Commodity ETP Flows

Energy ETPs all the rage

  • Bargain hunters drive strong energy ETC inflows defying the oil price slide of 2015
  • Precious metal ETP outflows cast a shadow in 2015 weighed by the stronger dollar and the indecisiveness of the Fed.
  • Steady rise of inflows over the course of H2 2015 into diversified basket ETPs underpin hopes of a commodity turnaround

Download the complete report (.pdf)

2015 will be remembered as one of the most volatile years for commodities, facing the repercussions of a structural slowdown in China, rising geopolitical risks and the Volkswagen emissions scandal. Asset under management (AUM) in commodity ETPs ended the year lower owing to a significant price impact of -20% and a meagre -1% of flows. Redemptions in gold ETPs were the largest sector contributor to the decline in AUM. In contrast, energy ETPs continued to accumulate assets, as investor inflows surged by 407%, more than offsetting the energy price decline.

(Click to enlarge)

Commodity flows by sector

Commodity ETP flows during the course of the year were extremely uneven. March, April, June and July experienced outflows of nearly US$2.4bn, while the remaining months saw positive inflows. The second half of the year witnessed a steady rise of inflows into diversified baskets, highlighting investor’s preference for strategic portfolio diversification against a backdrop of multi-year low prices.

Outflows were at their heaviest in March 2015, driven mainly by precious metals. Gold in particular, bore the brunt of the US rate hike speculation after robust jobs numbers sent the US dollar higher. Optimism about the global recovery spurred by monetary easing from China and rising sentiment over Greece’s third bailout package reduced gold’s safe haven status, leading to outflows from precious metal ETPs in June and July. As speculation of the first US rate hike in years gained precedence and came to fruition in December, outflows from gold ETPs led the pace of declines in precious metal ETPs.

October faced the onslaught of the Volkswagen emission scandal that impacted palladium (known for its use in gasoline auto catalysts) favourably but dented sentiment for platinum (known for its use in diesel auto catalysts). Negative sentiment emanating from the emissions scandal has underlined a clear disconnect between rising auto sales in Europe and US and plunging prices of platinum group metals known for their majority of use in pollution abatement technology.

Energy ETPs accounted for majority of the outflows in April and May, owing to profit taking and uncertainty over the potential ramp up of oil production from Iran. Furthermore OPECs affirmation of its production ceiling of 30mn barrels per day added to withdrawals from energy ETPs in June. Speculation over production cuts by OPEC and downward revisions in oil output gained precedence in August, driving consistent positive energy ETP flows.

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Interestingly, global production cuts by miners, coupled with an 18% rise in copper imports by China in September buoyed sentiment towards copper in H2 2015. In October a rise in outflows from short copper ETPs marked the most aggressive cut in short ETP positions since June 2014.

Vagaries of oil ETP flows vs price

Oil flows fluctuated over the course of the year, with bargain hunters building positions during oil price corrections. Outflows from WTI and Brent crude oil ETPs occurred from April to June after a build-up of positions in the first quarter of 2015, as oil prices rallied. Mid- year we again saw bargain hunters drive inflows into energy ETPs, despite the overhang of an oversupplied market and the prospect of the Iranian nuclear deal being approved. The WTI- Brent spread moved wider over the H2 of 2015, reaching nearly US$8/bbl in late August/early September. The spread widened partly due to reduced Libyan supply resulting from unrest and escalations of tension in Syria spurring investors to take bullish bets on Brent crude. September was the only month that saw contrasting flows in Brent and WTI crude. Steep price declines in the last quarter of 2015 saw investors continue to pour funds into energy ETPs.

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Broad commodity ETP Flows

With hopes pinned on a turn in the commodity cycle, we saw 50% rise in net flows head to broad diversified basket ETPs.

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In terms of broad sector commodity ETP flows, the contrast between 2014 and 2015 is striking. Precious metal and energy ETP flows more than outpaced the prior year. It has to be noted that energy ETP creations rose by 147% in 2015. Meanwhile, industrial metal ETP flows fell by 210% compared to 2014, owing to concerns surrounding a slowing Chinese economy.

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Few commodities were able to escape the global commodity market rout in 2015 and most of those that did saw price increases due to the positive effects of the El Nino-related weather problems. Agricultural commodities led by cocoa, cotton and sugar earned the top spots on the league table for best performing commodities in 2015. Sugar recorded a price rise of 32% from 23 Sep 2015 to the end of the year owing to the ongoing wet weather in Brazil, the El-Nino related drought in India in the summer and production problems in Thailand. On the other hand the strong El-Nino was responsible for the record warm December experienced across the United States and Europe and added to downward price pressure in the energy sector in the second half of 2015.

Stock-exchange traded turnover in commodity ETPs started the year at a record high of US $4.6bn with energy ETPs remaining the key driver. This level tapered off over the year and peaked again in July owing largely to precious metal ETPs. Gold suffered the largest turnover as market sentiment towards the yellow metal started to wane in response to rising lead indicators of growth in US and Europe coupled with net long positioning in gold falling to its lowest level since June 2013.

(Click to enlarge)

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates.

In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Bargain Hunting Drives Precious Metal Flows to Eight-Week High

Bargain Hunting Drives Precious Metal Flows to Eight-Week High

Commodity ETP Weekly Bargain Hunting Drives Precious Metal Flows to Eight-Week High

ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) sees largest inflows since 2012 while ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) sees highest inflows since May 2014.

Record inflows into ETFS Aluminium (ALUM).

Silver ETPs see highest inflows since February 2014.

Gold ETPs see first outflow in five weeks as prospects for global growth improve.

As the price of WTI fell below US$78/bbl for the first time in 3 years, flows into long WTI ETPs rose to US$24.8mn, the highest level since March 2014.

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

 

While precious metal prices capitulated last week, we saw strong flows into platinum, palladium and silver. Bargain hunting is clearly driving flows. With the global industrial cycle improving, demand for the more industrially dependent precious metals is likely to rise and therefore help reverse the losses these metals have sustained due to their correlation with gold. With all precious metals trading near or below their marginal cost of production, we expect mining activity to begin to be cut back, tightening supply, and supporting prices

ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT) sees largest inflows since 2012 while ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) sees highest inflows since May 2014. US$45.4mn of flows into PHPT and US$38.9mn into PHPD highlights just how attractive investors think platinum group metals (PGMs) are right now. With their ubiquitous use in auto-catalysts and rising car demand in the US, China and Europe, demand for PGMs remains strong. Meanwhile unprofitable mines in South Africa are likely to continue to be shut down and the stability of exports from Russia is likely to remain a concern, which will eventually lead to upward price pressure.

Record inflows into ETFS Aluminium (ALUM). At US$96.9mn, last week’s inflow was the highest since the inception of ALUM in 2006. After years of depressed aluminium prices, in 2014 we have seen aluminium rise close to 19% year-to-date. Even last week when most other metal prices fell, aluminium gained 1.9%. The catalyst behind the rally has been the tightness in bauxite supply, a key input for aluminium production, following Indonesia’s ban on raw mineral exports. Over-production of aluminium in China is likely to be cut in 2015 as the government pulls back from continuously subsidising loss-making smelters, especially now given the tightness in the bauxite market.

Silver ETPs see highest inflows since February 2014. After falling close to 9% last week, silver prices reached the lowest levels since 2012. Relative to gold it is the cheapest it has been since 2009, despite the recent declines the gold price. The upturn in the industrial cycle bodes well for the silver and we could see the excess supply slowly be absorbed. Inflows into silver ETPs totalled US$35.7mn last week.

Gold ETPs see first outflow in five weeks as prospects for global growth improve. US economic growth in particular looks buoyant and is likely to drive the US dollar even higher, placing downward pressure on gold in dollar terms. Gold fell 4.7% last week and the pressure on the metal could remain. We saw US$85.8mn of outflows, reversing the previous four-weeks of inflows as more investors became bearish on the metal’s prospects.

As the price of WTI fell below US$78/bbl for the first time in 3 years, flows into long WTI ETPs rose to US$24.8mn, the highest level since March 2014. The price of the WTI reacted strongly to the news that Saudi Arabia had cut prices in the US. While the OPEC cartel appears to be in disarray, with the smaller members undercutting each other’s prices in Asia, we note the cartel has survived since 1960 despite the turbulence the member countries have endured since that time. We believe the November 27th meeting could be a pivotal point to sharpen the group’s common interests, likely driving the price of oil back to levels consistent with balancing OPEC government budgets, above US$90/bbl.

Key events to watch this week. A number of Chinese data releases including industrial production and loan growth will help investors gauge the strength of likely demand from the world’s largest consumer of commodities. Meanwhile the advance release of Q3 GDP from the Euro area could give an indication of the (lack of) strength of demand elsewhere.

Video Presentation

 

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

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This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

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Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

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