Etikett: RRR

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

All Eyes on the Federal ReserveAll Eyes on the Federal Reserve

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Tin prices rebound from six year low.

Chinese bourses climb on stimulus hopes.

EURJPY in focus as BOJ meets ahead of Eurozone inflation.

The week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting to decide on US rates will not be followed by a press conference. The market will therefore remain very attentive to FOMC member speeches and public engagements to glean any information about the possible path of rate increases this year. As a result, we expect no surprises, which will keep USD gains capped. Elsewhere, continued Greek bailout negotiations will likely weigh on European bourses and keep volatility high. The rising animosity between the Greek Finance Minister and his EU counterparts has increased the risk of an accident in negotiations.

Commodities

Tin prices rebound from six year low. Tin prices witnessed a 3.4% weekly gain, after having declined by 40% since April last year. Tin prices have come under significant pressure following the appreciation of the US Dollar and burgeoning production of tin ore from Myanmar. The sharp increase in price came as the largest tin producer in Indonesia, the world’s top exporter, announced that it would be cutting production in the face of price weakness. In emissions markets, the price of carbon allowances rose 5.5% as progress was made toward relieving the current oversupply of allowances in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The conclusion of the US winter and its associated seasonal heating demand weighed on the natural gas price this week. The price fell 5.7% as US working natural gas inventories grew by more than expected, reflecting the absence of significant demand.
.

Equities

Chinese bourses climb on stimulus hopes. The MSCI China A Index rallied 5.4% during the week following a reduction of the national reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1% to 18.5%. Speculation has been growing that Chinese authorities will aggressively support growth targets through monetary stimulus, fuelling bullish sentiment and taking the index to highs not witnessed since 2007. In Europe, equity indices have fallen over the week as concerns grew that Greece will fail to meet its upcoming €780mn debt payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due in May. IMF Director, Christine Lagarde, has made it clear that the international group will not allow Greece to delay these payments, putting greater pressure on the nation to finalise negotiations over economic overhauls and its international bailout. The DAX 30 and FTSE MIB Index have fallen by 2.3% and 1.7% respectively as a result.

Currencies

EURJPY in focus as BOJ meets ahead of Eurozone inflation. The Bank of Japan has appeared to be comfortable with the progress with the inflation outlook, and as such we feel that the upcoming policy meeting will be largely uneventful. The first tendrils of wage growth appear to be starting to take root, in turn helping inflation stabilise around the 2% level, in line with the BOJ target. Alongside CPI, a raft of other Japanese economic indicators will also be released this week, including industrial production and retail trade. Although there has been some volatility in industrial activity, survey evidence shows that business attitudes are improving in the manufacturing sector. Consumers remain under pressure, but this could continue if earnings post further gains. Meanwhile, inflation data will be the main focus for Euro investors, but we expect there to be little progress on the price front for the Eurozone. As a result we expect EUR/JPY to trade even lower this week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Signs of Slowing US Shale Output Lifts Crude

Signs of Slowing US Shale Output Lifts Crude

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Signs of Slowing US Shale Output Lifts Crude

Investors lock in profits as crude benchmarks rally.

Investors shed long copper exposure as price rebounds.

Soft US data prompts precious metal price recovery.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

After last week’s revelation that US consumer prices had tipped into deflation on an annual basis and retail sales surprised to the downside, investors will be monitoring US manufacturing and home sales data for continued signs of weakness. Any subpar data readings that reflect a moderation of US growth could delay market expectations of tightening and prove bullish for precious metals. In Europe, investor’s brace for a Greek default as signs emerge of deteriorating relations between the newly elected Syriza party and international creditors, calling into question Greece’s Eurozone membership.

Investors lock in profits as crude benchmarks rally. Investors withdrew US$52mn of funds from ETPs providing exposure to US crude this week as the price hit the highest level this year. Following a 25 week streak of inflows, long WTI ETPs have experienced the largest four weeks of outflows since 2010. ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL) witnessed US$21.1mn of outflows, as US crude inventories grew by 1.3mn barrels, 2.7mn barrels below market expectations, indicating that US shale production may finally be declining in the face of recent price weakness. The weak inventory build corroborated an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report released earlier in the week that forecasted that US shale oil production would start to drop in May. Adding further to bullish sentiment was the withdrawal of government forces from oilfields in Yemen, reflecting a deteriorating internal situation which threatens the security of key oil transit routes. Going forward the price of crude will likely grind higher as shale output shows further signs of curbing and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. The main downside risks to the price in the near term are US Dollar strength and the potential for onshore oil storage capacity to reach limits and force supply onto the market.

Investors shed long copper exposure as price rebounds. The price of copper has rebounded from January lows, driven in part by the recent pullback in the US Dollar and the reduction of the Chinese Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). Long copper ETPs saw US$14.2mn of redemptions as investors harvest profits from the recent price bounce. Following data that showed that China grew at the slowest pace in six years, policy makers are under intensifying pressure to support growth targets. Investors in the copper futures market have cut short positions from record highs as accommodative measures are likely to boost the red metal and sustain its recent strong performance.

Soft US data prompts precious metal price recovery. Recent weak retail sales and jobs data has relieved bearish pressure on the precious metals complex. Soft US data pushed back expectations of rate normalisation which weakened the Dollar and boosted precious metals, with gold and silver rising 0.8% and 1.0% respectively. Gold and silver ETPs benefited seeing a total of US$7.1mn of inflows.

Key events to watch this week. This week cyclical commodities are likely to be in focus following recent stimulus measures announced by Chinese authorities and the release of manufacturing data for US, China and Europe. In Europe, aside from Greek debt negotiations, the UK will be under the spotlight as the Bank of England (BOE) releases minutes from its April meeting and the general election draws closer.

Video Presentation

Joshpreet Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.