Correction presents buying opportunity

ETF Securities Correction presents buying opportunityCorrection presents buying opportunity

Weekly Investment Insights – Correction presents buying opportunity In 2017, ETF Securities will be broadening its weekly FX insights to cover all asset classes including commodities, equities and fixed income. We hope you continue to find these updates useful.

Highlights

  • Optimism over growth prospects and accommodative monetary conditions have pushed European equity benchmarks to multi-month highs.
  • Current levels look unsustainable in the short run as momentum wanes and bearish technical signals surface.
  • Longer term prospects for European stocks appear more favourable, so any correction could be an opportunity for entry.

Near term top

European equity indices have been a beneficiary of the broad-based optimism that has characterised the market landscape since Trump’s election back in November. Most have recently set multi-month, if not multi-year, highs as analyst earnings forecasts have jumped on the back of an improved outlook for global growth based on reflationary trends. In addition, higher commodity prices, improved net interest margins and ongoing monetary stimulus have also helped to lift beleaguered resource and financial industry sectors that have previously weighed on performance. However, technical indicators suggest that across the board, the recent rally is losing steam, leaving indices such as the EURO STOXX 50, DAX 30, CAC 40 and the FTSE MIB vulnerable to a near term correction. Over the longer term, we believe that the stocks of core European states will remain attractively valued, especially when compared to their US counterparts, making any upcoming correction an excellent medium term opportunity to gain long exposure. This is especially true as economic indicators in Europe gather pace and continue to tick higher.

Momentum wanes

A “toppish” momentum divergence is where a particular index moves higher while its momentum indicators simultaneously trend lower and is typically interpreted as a bearish signal that a rally is coming to an end. This signal is in play for the EURO STOXX 50, DAX 30, CAC 40 and the FTSE MIB. All of these indices have recently reached highs which they have all failed to defend while their momentum indicators have turned lower. This implies that, at least in the near term, these benchmarks will come under pressure or at least remain subdued.

Eurozone economic uptick Click to enlarge

Long term promise

In the medium term, we do not believe that any bearish pressure will last, as positive economic performance in Europe helps provide a boost to stock market performance. Barometers of economic strength, such as GDP growth, manufacturing surveys and industrial production, have all picked up markedly for the Eurozone since Q4 of last year (see Figure 1). The latest  manufacturing purchasing managers index reading for January recently came in at the highest level in over five years, pointing towards a sustained recovery for a region that has experienced an uninspiring rebound from the financial crisis. Furthermore, indications from the latest European Central Bank meeting suggest that monetary conditions are likely to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future as core inflationary pressures remain fragile, removing the likelihood of a near term policy shock. Combined with far more favourable cyclically adjusted valuation metrics (specifically cyclically adjusted price to earnings) than the US, European benchmarks looked well placed to move higher in the coming six months. Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs: Equity ETPs 3x ETFS 3x Daily Long Euro Stoxx 50 (EU3L) ETFS 3x Daily Short Euro Stoxx 50 (UES3) ETFS 3x Daily Long CAC 40 (FR3L) ETFS 3x Daily Short CAC 40 (FR3S) ETFS 3x Daily Long DAX 30 (GY3L) ETFS 3x Daily Short DAX 30 (GY3S) ETFS 3x Daily Long FTSE MIB (IT3L) ETFS 3x Daily Short FTSE MIB (IT3S) ETFS 3x Daily Long FTSE 100 (UK3L) ETFS 3x Daily Short FTSE 100 (UK3S) 2x ETFS DAX® Daily 2x Long GO UCITS ETF (DEL2) ETFS DAX® Daily 2x Short GO UCITS ETF (DES2) ETFS FTSE 100® Leveraged (Daily 2x) GO UCITS ETF (LUK2) ETFS FTSE 100® Super Short Strategy (Daily 2x) GO UCITS ETF (SUK2) The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors. The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the “Company”). The Issuer is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a “Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the “Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks. The ETFS FTSE 100® Leveraged (Daily 2x) GO UCITS ETF and ETFS FTSE 100® Super Short Strategy (Daily 2x) GO UCITS ETF are not in any way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) or by the London Stock Exchange Plc (the “Exchange”) or by The Financial Times Limited (“FT”) (together the “Licensor Parties”) and none of the Licensor Parties make any warranty or representation whatsoever, expressly or impliedly, either as to the results to be obtained from the use of the FTSE 100® Daily Leveraged Index and the FTSE 100® Daily Super Short Strategy Index (the “Index”) and/or the figure at which the said Index stands at any particular time on any particular day or otherwise. The Index is compiled and calculated by FTSE. None of the Licensor Parties shall be liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) to any person for any error in the Index and none of the Licensor Parties shall be under any obligation to advise any person of any error therein. “FTSE®”, “FT-SE®”, “Footsie®” , “FTSE4Good®” and “techMARK®” are trade marks of the Exchange and the FT and are used by FTSE under licence. “All-World®”, “All- Share®” and “All-Small®” are trade marks of FTSE. The ETFS DAX® Daily 2x Long GO UCITS ETF and The ETFS DAX® Daily 2x Short GO UCITS ETF (the “Fund”) are neither sponsored nor promoted, distributed or in any other manner supported by Deutsche Börse AG (the “Licensor”). The Licensor does not give any explicit or implicit warranty or representation, neither regarding the results deriving from the use of the LevDAX® x2 Index and the ShortDAX® x2 Index (the “Index”) and/or the term DAXglobal® (the “Index Trademar k”) nor regarding the Index value at a certain point in time or on a certain date nor in any other respect. The Index is calculated and published by the Licensor. Nevertheless, as far as admissible under statutory law the Licensor will not be liable vis-à-vis third parties for potential errors in the Index. Moreover, there is no obligation for the Licensor vis-à-vis third parties, including investors, to point out potential errors in the Index. Neither the publication of the Index by the Licensor nor the granting of a license to the Company’s Promoter regarding the Index as well as the Index Trademark for the utilisation in connection with the Fund, which is derived from the Index, represents a recommendation by the Licensor for a capital investment or contains in any manner a warranty or opinion by the Licensor with respect to the attractiveness on an investment in the Fund. In its capacity as sole owner of all rights to the Index and the Index Trademark the Licensor has solely licensed to the Promoter of the Fund the utilisation of the Index and the Index Trademark as well as any reference to the Index and the Index Trademark in connection with the Fund. Securities issued by FXL are direct, limited recourse obligations of FXL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith. The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley to determine whether Morgan Stanley’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley.

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

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Tin prices rebound from six year low.

Chinese bourses climb on stimulus hopes.

EURJPY in focus as BOJ meets ahead of Eurozone inflation.

The week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting to decide on US rates will not be followed by a press conference. The market will therefore remain very attentive to FOMC member speeches and public engagements to glean any information about the possible path of rate increases this year. As a result, we expect no surprises, which will keep USD gains capped. Elsewhere, continued Greek bailout negotiations will likely weigh on European bourses and keep volatility high. The rising animosity between the Greek Finance Minister and his EU counterparts has increased the risk of an accident in negotiations.

Commodities

Tin prices rebound from six year low. Tin prices witnessed a 3.4% weekly gain, after having declined by 40% since April last year. Tin prices have come under significant pressure following the appreciation of the US Dollar and burgeoning production of tin ore from Myanmar. The sharp increase in price came as the largest tin producer in Indonesia, the world’s top exporter, announced that it would be cutting production in the face of price weakness. In emissions markets, the price of carbon allowances rose 5.5% as progress was made toward relieving the current oversupply of allowances in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The conclusion of the US winter and its associated seasonal heating demand weighed on the natural gas price this week. The price fell 5.7% as US working natural gas inventories grew by more than expected, reflecting the absence of significant demand.
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Equities

Chinese bourses climb on stimulus hopes. The MSCI China A Index rallied 5.4% during the week following a reduction of the national reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 1% to 18.5%. Speculation has been growing that Chinese authorities will aggressively support growth targets through monetary stimulus, fuelling bullish sentiment and taking the index to highs not witnessed since 2007. In Europe, equity indices have fallen over the week as concerns grew that Greece will fail to meet its upcoming €780mn debt payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) due in May. IMF Director, Christine Lagarde, has made it clear that the international group will not allow Greece to delay these payments, putting greater pressure on the nation to finalise negotiations over economic overhauls and its international bailout. The DAX 30 and FTSE MIB Index have fallen by 2.3% and 1.7% respectively as a result.

Currencies

EURJPY in focus as BOJ meets ahead of Eurozone inflation. The Bank of Japan has appeared to be comfortable with the progress with the inflation outlook, and as such we feel that the upcoming policy meeting will be largely uneventful. The first tendrils of wage growth appear to be starting to take root, in turn helping inflation stabilise around the 2% level, in line with the BOJ target. Alongside CPI, a raft of other Japanese economic indicators will also be released this week, including industrial production and retail trade. Although there has been some volatility in industrial activity, survey evidence shows that business attitudes are improving in the manufacturing sector. Consumers remain under pressure, but this could continue if earnings post further gains. Meanwhile, inflation data will be the main focus for Euro investors, but we expect there to be little progress on the price front for the Eurozone. As a result we expect EUR/JPY to trade even lower this week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Greek Cooperation Supports Bullish Sentiment

Greek Cooperation Supports Bullish Sentiment

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Greek Cooperation Supports Bullish Sentiment

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Crude prices oscillate on conflicting signals.

European stocks rise following Greek repayment.  

Australian central bank surprises markets.

China will take center stage this week as the country releases Q1 growth figures and lending data. Any signs of weakness will likely stoke speculation that Chinese authorities will conduct further stimulus measures in order to meet the recently set 7% economic growth target. In Europe and the US, inflation data will give an indication as to the continued deflationary impact of energy prices. In particular, US consumer inflation will be monitored for any signs of recovery from last month’s 0% reading, as it is considered a key component in the Federal Reserve’s decision to initiate monetary tightening.

Commodities

Crude prices oscillate on conflicting signals. The price of US crude ended the week up 3.4% after a week of large moves. Oil prices rose approximately 9.6% at the start of the week boosted by news that Saudi Arabia was increasing the price of oil shipments sold to Asian consumers, underlining the growing belief that global oil demand is recovering. This was further corroborated by the release of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly energy outlook, which predicted that global oil consumption will grow by an estimated one million barrels this year. However, after a report showing that US crude inventories experienced the largest injection in 14 years, gains were trimmed with the WTI price plunging 6.6% in a single day. Industrial metals benefitted from Chinese authorities lowering guidance rates for funding agreements. The accommodative move was seen as an attempt to buoy economic activity, resulting in lead finishing the week up 4.3%.

Equities

European stocks rise following Greek repayment. Greece repaid a €450 million bailout loan instalment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday causing European equity markets to rally. The FTSE MIB and DAX 30 rose 2.7% and 1.7% respectively during the week. The repayment soothed investor fears that Greece would delay matters, as tensions between finance ministers escalate over the terms of a debt arrangement. The newly elected far left Syriza party has been reluctant to accept any deal that incorporates any form of austerity, as doing so threatens to compromise the party’s credibly amongst the Greek electorate. The FTSE 100 rose 2.7% during the week as the price of Brent crude rose 2.9%, boosting oil and gas stocks that compromise 14.3% of the index.

Currencies

Australian central bank surprises markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shocked markets this week by holding the country’s benchmark interest rate at 2.25%. Most economists had forecasted that the RBA would cut rates in order to bolster recent subpar economic growth and sluggish business capital expenditure. The unexpected move caused the Aussie Dollar to strengthen, rising 3.7% and 2.5% against the Euro and Sterling respectively. The New Zealand Dollar also appreciated this week following the strongest reading in the Australian Construction Index in five months. The data release came following a statement from the New Zealand Prime Minister John Key which stressed the importance of the Australian economy to New Zealand, making the positive impact from the data more pronounced. The NZD finished the week 2.6% up against the Euro.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

US and Europe Continue to Diverge

US and Europe Continue to Diverge

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly US and Europe Continue to Diverge

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Highlights

Mild US weather outlook causes natural gas to plunge.

Chinese equity markets extend rally.

US Dollar strength likely to continue.

 

Cyclical assets are likely to experience an after-glow this week from the upside surprise in the US non-farm payrolls data on Friday. A raft of Chinese data including industrial production, retail sales and lending data out this week will provide investors a gauge for how well the economy is faring. We expect further monetary stimulus from the People’s Bank of China if the data disappoints, highlighting the determination to see yearly growth targets are met. The European Central Bank’s monthly report will be read with keen interest as investors look for easing cues after last week’s disappointing lack of action from the central bank.

Commodities

Mild US weather outlook causes natural gas to plunge. Natural gas last week declined -16.2% as reports of mild weather in December ignited speculation that heating demand in the US will be lower than normal. These expectations have been somewhat confirmed by the release of the EIA’s weekly natural gas storage update which contained news that drawdowns on working gas inventory was far lower than the consensus had estimated. Bearish sentiment continued within crude and distillate markets arising from deal struck between the Iraq and the Kurdish regional government after years of political impasse. The deal stipulated that the semi-autonomous Kurdish region would be designated to export 550,000 barrels a day through Iraq’s national oil company in exchange for 17% of Iraq’s national budget, adding further to the perceived over-supply of global oil markets.

Equities

Chinese equity markets extend rally. Momentum from last week’s strong gains in the Chinese stock market continued as the MSCI China A Index advanced 10.5%. This was driven by more investors piling into the Chinese equity market following the opening of the Hong Kong-Shanghai Connect and optimism over structural reforms and stimulatory monetary measures from the Chinese government and central bank. Conversely, European stocks were led downwards by banking shares following ECB governing council’s announcement that it would only consider full blown quantitative easing in early-2015, dashing hopes of the initiative being launched this month. This announcement comes as a sequence of weak economic data and downward revisions of ECB inflation and growth forecasts had prompted hopes of easing measures to take place this month. In response the FTSE MIB and DAX 30 declined -3.36% and -1.24% respectively.

Currencies

US Dollar strength likely to continue. The upside surprise in the US jobs report provided a sharp lift to the US Dollar against most currencies last week. Should we see strong growth in November US retail sales this week and a further deterioration in November Euro area industrial production, we are likely to see expected interest rate divergence become more pronounced and hence the Euro will continue to depreciate against the UD Dollar. Last week the ECB cut its growth forecasts and failed to deliver on full-blown quantitative easing before the year’s end. Its inaction increases the probability that the ECB will have to take more drastic measures to avoid deflation in the New Year. After the ‘no’ vote on the Swiss gold referendum provided relief for the Swiss National Bank, we believe the central bank will maintain the status.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Handeln med börshandlade produkter uppe på historiska nivåer

Handeln med börshandlade produkter uppe på historiska nivåer

Handeln med börshandlade produkter uppe på historiska nivåer. Det är ingen tvekan om att börshandlade produkter (nedan ETP:er) har blivit en självklar investeringsform för alltfler svenskar. Handeln slår alla historiska rekord och marknaden växer lavinartat till skillnad från ETF-handeln som tidigare har varit stort. Drivande i tillväxten för ETP-handeln är NGM-börsen som via sin marknadsplats NDX har drygt 80 procent av marknaden i Norden.

Sista månaden på börsen har varit turbulent och många investerade såg sin årsutveckling raderas. När marknaden var som mest volatil och många sålde i förtvivlan var det samtidigt rekordmånga som vallfärdade till ETP-marknaden för att handla Bull & Bear-certifikat, Mini Futures, Mini Futures BEST/Unlimited Turbos m.m. Anledningen? De såg en möjlighet att tjäna pengar på nedgången istället för tvärtom. Enligt NGM, som är ledande på ETP-marknaden, har antalet avslut hittills i år redan passerat det totala antalet som gjordes under hela 2013. Detta sker samtidigt som handeln i de tidigare så populära ETF:erna minskar. På bara två år har handeln med ETF:er minskat med mer än 50 procent.

Men det är inte bara vid börsoro som privata investerare väljer ETP:er. Handeln har blivit allt vanligare och produktutbudet är stort. Investerarna kan handla med alltifrån Alibaba, Facebook och H&M som underliggande till olika index. De vanligaste underliggande tillgångarna i år är indexen OMXS30 och DAX 30 samt bolagen Nokia, Apple och Volvo.

NGM har på sista tiden varit drivande i att öka marknaden för ETP:er och har idag drygt 80 procent av den totala handeln i Norden. Övriga aktörer på den Nordiska marknaden är Nasdaq och Oslo Börs. Nasdaq Stockholm och Nasdaq Helsingfors har totalt en marknadsandel på cirka 18 procent och uppvisar relativt oförändrade handelssiffror i år. Vid inledningen av 2013 hade Nasdaq en marknadsandel på omkring 36 procent.