Flyttet ses som fördelaktigt för en rad börshandlade fonder, inklusive VanEck Vectors ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF (NYSEArca: PEK), VanEck Vectors ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF (NYSEArca: CNXT), iShares MSCI China A ETF (BATS: CNYA) och db Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (NYSEArca: ASHR). Dessa börshandlade fonder spårar kinesiska börsnoterade företag på börserna i Shanghai och Shenzhen.
”Kvoten av dollar just nu är relativt liten … men vad det gör är att det börjar en process som kommer att omfatta Kina A-aktier som en större och större del av detta mycket viktiga riktmärke över tiden”, berättade Jon Howie, chef för aktieindexstrategin vid BlackRock, för CNBCs ”Squawk Box”.
Miljarder dollar kan hjälpa till att stödja kinesiska A Shares
Investerare förväntar sig i stort sett att miljarder dollar kan hjälpa till att stödja kinesiska A-aktier framåt, eftersom globala kapitalförvaltare anpassar sina positioner för att bättre återspegla tillväxtmarknadens nya benchmarkförändringar.
Nära 230 kinesiska A-aktier dök upp på indexleverantören MSCIs tillväxtmarknads benchmark i fredags. Den delaktiga upptagningen av A-aktierna, eller yuan-denominerade aktier som handlas på fastlandsbörser, till MSCI: s allmänt observerade Emerging Markets Index kommer att ske i två faser. Den andra fasen äger rum i augusti 2018.
När A-aktierna ingår ingår Kina landsvikt i indexet, som för närvarande innehåller aktier i Hongkongs börsnoterade kinesiska aktiebolag, kommer Kinas vikt att öka till 31,3 procent. Full integration skulle medföra att A-aktier står för 16% av EM-indexet och göra att Kina svarar för 42% av referensvärdet.
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM), som följer benchmarket MSCI Emerging Markets Index, höll 33,1 procent av sit kapital i Kina per den 1 juni.
Varierande tillväxt för olika landsspecifika ETFer
Den globala ekonomin fortsätter att puttra på, men den skiljer sig åt mellan olika länder och är periodvis mycket ojämn. Investerare kan emellertid välja och välja sina globala exponeringar med landsspecifika börshandlade fonder. Det är emellertid viktigt att komma ihåg att olika länder befinner sig i skilda stadier av de ekonomiska cyklerna. Av den orsaken kan vi förvänta oss Varierande tillväxt för olika landsspecifika ETFer.
De globala finansmarknaderna har varit blygsam med en stabil tillväxt, låg inflation och kraftig penningpolitik, och det kan fortsätta att gynna globala aktier. Fidelityskriver att fondbolaget gör bedömningen att världen just nu befinner sig i en långsam övergång till en mindre tillmötesgående penningpolitisk hållning. Den globala aktiviteten har sannolikt toppat, USAs konjunktur fortsätter att mogna, tillgångsvärderingarna ökar vanligen och de geopolitiska riskerna har stigit.
Anser att den amerikanska tillväxten är stabil
Fidelity Investments hävdar att medan amerikansk tillväxten är bred och stabil har ekonomin visat en blandning av mitt- och sencykeldynamiken när den rör sig in i den sena konjunkturcykeln av mognande och långsammare tillväxt.
Alternativt pekade Fidelity på andra länder som fortfarande befinner sig i sina tidigare stadier av ekonomisk återhämtning och expansion. Japan och Brasilien befinner sig exempelvis i en tidig konjunkturcykel till mitten av konjunkturcykeln. Dessa länders ekonomier är fortfarande i sin återhämtningsfas. De två ekonomierna kunde fortsätta att uppleva snabbare tillväxt före toppen.
Exponering mot brasilianska och japanska aktier
Investerare kan få exponering mot brasilianska och japanska aktier genom iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWZ) respektive iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEArca: EWJ). Kina å andra sidan har en stark historik av tillväxt, men befinner sig enligt Fidelity nära toppen av mittkonjunkturen. Det kan anses att Kina har sett sin tillväxt nå sin topp.
Kinas ekonomi har återhämtat sig i flera år, men politisk åtstramning och bromsande fart i den industriella verksamheten och bostäder tyder på att det mesta av uppåtsidan redan har skett”, enligt Fidelity.
Investerare kan få exponering för Kina genom börshandlade fonder som som iShares China Large Cap ETF (NYSEArca: FXI), SPDR S & P China ETF (NYSEArca: GXC), VanEck-Vectors ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF (NYSEArca: CNXT) och db X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund (NYSEArca: ASHR). De europeiska marknaderna ser också attraktiva ut, eftersom de fortfarande ligger nära mitten av konjunkturen.
Euroområdet befinner sig efter USA
Euroområdet ligger inte så långt som USA i konjunkturcykeln, och det fortsätter att dra nytta av att förbättrade känslor och kreditförhållanden”, enligt Fidelity analys. För bred exponering i Europa kan investerare titta på börshandlade fonder som iShares MSCI EMU ETF (NYSEArca: EZU) och SPDR EURO STOXX 50 (NYSEArca: FEZ).
När man tittar på amerikanska marknader kan investerare titta på energi- och materialsektorerna som har utvecklats väl trots inflationstrycket och den ekonomiska expansionen i slutet av året som bidrar till att stödja efterfrågan. ETF-investerare i oljeindustrin kan titta på börshandlade fonder som Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLE), Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSEEArca: VDE) och Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (NYSEArca: FENY). För materialexponering kan investerare titta på Material Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLB), Vanguard Materials ETF (NYSEArca: VAW) och Fidelity MSCI Materials Index ETF (NYSEArca: FMAT).
China remains an important part of the world economy. China: A $12 Trillion Economy Not to be Ignored. While it may not be posting the double-digit gr owth numbers of a decade ago, we believe the country continues to offer interesting investment opportunities. Although recent economic growth rates have been in the single digits (6.90% in 2015 as shown in the chart below), in absolute terms this growth is extraordinary given that China’s economy is far bigger than it once was. What was China’s $1 trillion sized-economy in 2000 is now 12 times larger at more than $12 trillion based on gross domestic product (GDP), putting China just behind the U.S. ($19 trillion).1
Concern over Capital Outflows Abates
We continue to believe that when evaluating any investment in either the emerging markets or any global allocation of assets, China needs to be considered. Although current concern surrounding China’s capital outflows may have decreased, there continues to be net depreciation pressure on the Renminbi. However, in some ways, mild, engineered depreciation versus a basket of currencies, while keeping a lid on capital outflow pressures, may represent a positive outcome for China. Market concern has tended to focus more on the rapid increase in leverage that has been seen in China since the global financial crisis. Although we agree that this is a significant issue that will likely necessitate some hard decisions, we think that there are serious differences in the nature of that debt and the management of the economy that could prevent a systemic crisis in the foreseeable future.
Debt Burden is Larger for SOEs
Much of the debt risk concern is around state owned enterprises, or SOEs. Privately owned enterprises tend not to carry as much debt. According to estimates in a paper published in June 2016 from Shi Kang, an associate professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong, private companies have cut debt to 53% of assets in 2013 from 58% in 2007, while SOEs have seen those figures jump to 62% from 55%.2
China’s New Economy Transition
Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) remain at the center of the narrative as China transitions from an “old” production-driven model to the “new” consumer and service-led economy. In this context, we believe VanEck Vectors™ ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF (NYSE Arca: CNXT®) provides not only exposure primarily to China’s market for innovative, non-government owned companies, but also to the very sectors that are increasingly recognized as underpinning the growth of the country’s “New Economy.” CNXT gives investors a liquid, transparent way to gain access to some of these growing companies.
China GDP Absolute Growth and Growth Rate (2000 – 2015)
(Click to enlarge)
Source: World Bank. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Current market conditions may not continue.
IMPORTANT DEFINITIONS AND DISCLOSURES
1 Estimated; Data: IMF, World Economic Outlook; Updated Feb. 11, 2016
2 Bloomberg: China Private Firms Show Way Out of Debt Trap for State Giants.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders during one year.
This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck, and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
CNXT is subject to risks which include, among others, those associated with investments in Chinese securities, particularly A-Shares, adviser and sub-adviser risk, risk of the RQFII regime, political and economic instability, inflation, confiscatory taxation, nationalization, expropriation, and market volatility, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Foreign and emerging markets investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, changes in currency exchange rates, unstable governments, and limited trading capacity which may make these investments volatile in price or difficult to trade. Small- and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors.
Fund shares are not individually redeemable and will be issued and redeemed at their Net Asset Value (NAV) only through certain authorized broker-dealers in large, specified blocks of shares called ”creation units” and otherwise can be bought and sold only through exchange trading. Creation units are issued and redeemed principally in kind. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Bonds and bond funds will generally decrease in value as interest rates rise. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
China’s “New Economy” Leshi Makes Vital Acquisition
Dubbed ”the Netflix of China”, Leshi Internet Information & Technology Corporation was the first online video firm to go public in China. On May 9, 2016, Leshi announced its plans to acquire Le Vision Pictures, which will help further expand its business into film production and the ”big screen”. Leshi is a great example of how the tech service industry is helping to drive China’s New Economy (characterized by China’s transition from an investment-driven to a consumer-led economy).
China’s economic growth woes aside, its transition to the New Economy frames an opportunity for the country’s consumer-led stocks. Companies like Leshi are capitalizing on potential opportunities both to gain market share and increase earnings. As shown in the chart below, New Economy companies listed on China’s domestic A-share markets outperformed their old economy counterparts in 2015, experiencing an increase in earnings per share year-over-year.1
China’s New Economy Outperforms Old Economy
Earnings Per Share for A-Share Companies with Reported 2015 Earnings (RMB Per Share)
(Click to enlarge) Source: Financial Times, as of March 29, 2016.
Leshi to Expand Offerings to Young Consumer Demographic
In a few short years, Leshi has grown from the first publicly listed online video provider to the second-largest company listed on Shenzhen’s tech-friendly ChiNext board with a capitalization of Rmb109 billion.2 For the first quarter of 2016, Leshi declared a 117% rise in operating revenue year-over-year and a net profit increase of over 20% for the same time period.3
Leshi’s deal to acquire 100% of Le Vision Pictures, its film production and distribution affiliate within parent LeEco, has the potential to greatly expand Leshi’s reach both inside and outside of China. Currently engaged in mobile television and internet video production, the deal allows Leshi to supplement its online services with big screen film.
Le Vision Expands Leshi’s Reach to Hollywood
Le Vision Pictures is one of the largest film production and distribution companies in China. With success financing and distributing Hollywood imports into China (such as The Expendables 2 & 3), the company is currently growing its presence in Hollywood. It recently partnered with Legendary East and Universal Pictures on The Great Wall, an upcoming American-Chinese fiction film starring Matt Damon and Andy Lau.4
With the acquisition of Le Vision Pictures, Leshi is positioned to further its foothold as a leading player in the online content market, one that will likely resonate with China’s younger consumer demographic. Perhaps China’s tech-forward service industry will continue to foster a growing number of startups that will help to stake its claim as New Economy China.
The new economy China market can be accessed through VanEck Vectors™ ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF (CNXT). As of May 31, 2016, Leshi comprised 4.04% of (CNXT).
Authored by James Duffy, Product Manager, VanEck Vectors ETFs
ETFs is authored by VanEck thought leaders. VanEck is the sponsor of VanEck Vectors ETFs and is currently among the largest providers of exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and worldwide. VanEck Vectors ETFs empower investors to help build better portfolios with access to compelling investment themes and strategies. Our ETFs span many global asset classes, and are built to be transparent, liquid, and pure-play reflections of target markets.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
1 ft.com; China’s new economy groups outperform; March 29, 2016.
2 FinanceAsia; LeEco unit Leshi to buy Le Vision Pictures; May 9, 2016
3 Bloomberg.com; May 18, 2016
4 FinanceAsia, LeEco unit Leshi to buy Le Vision Pictures, May 9, 2016
This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
The Fund is subject to risks which include, among others, those associated with investments in Chinese securities, particularly A-Shares, adviser and sub-adviser risk, risk of the RQFII regime, political and economic instability, inflation, confiscatory taxation, nationalization, expropriation, and market volatility, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Foreign and emerging markets investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, changes in currency exchange rates, unstable governments, and limited trading capacity which may make these investments volatile in price or difficult to trade. Small and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors.
Fund shares are not individually redeemable and will be issued and redeemed at their Net Asset Value (NAV) only through certain authorized broker-dealers in large, specified blocks of shares called ”creation units” and otherwise can be bought and sold only through exchange trading. Creation units are issued and redeemed principally in kind. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com/etfs. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
China’s “New” Economy is Official. While the idea that China is redefining the nature of its economy has become a familiar economic theme, it may not be unanimous among market participants that the transformation is indeed imminent. Recent developments, however, strengthen my conviction in the ”new” economy future of China and the role of the SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) and ChiNext Boards in facilitating the growth at hand.
Only last month on March 16, China’s National People’s Congress approved the 13th Five-Year Plan that the Communist Party presented back in October 2015. The remarks of the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in announcing the new plan further inspire my enthusiasm: ”China has initiated the concept of ’new economy’ to foster new growth drivers for overall economy transformation.” His subsequent statement is even more auspicious: ”The campaign of mass entrepreneurship and innovation provides a platform for large, medium and small businesses and research institutions to have a broad space for crowd innovation, crowdfunding and crowdsourcing.”
New Government Policies are Extremely Supportive
Though this news may not sound entirely new, given a similar announcement made in early February by top economic planner Shen Zhulin, we believe the premier’s imprimatur will effectively underscore and publicize the seriousness of the administration’s intent to transition from its ”old” economy to the ”new” one. There are more than ”2,000 supportive policies for new businesses from central and local authorities” supporting our view that China means business.
Providing access to 1,282 of China’s 2,828 A-share listed companies, the SME and ChiNext Boards of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are crucial players in China’s economic evolution, though the number of new enterprise registrations in China (4.4 million in 2015 or a whopping 12,000 a day) far exceeds the breadth of these two platforms. The SME Board, which now serves 782 listed companies, was inaugurated on May 27, 2011 with the objective of ”supporting innovation” with ”many high quality innovative issuers.”1 Alongside it in Shenzhen, the ChiNext Board (totally independent from the main board) aims to provide ”solid support for the development of independently innovative enterprises.” We see the two boards as delivering on their promises; they represent big steps in China’s establishment of ”a multi-tiered capital market system” and offer exposure to the businesses that have driven the majority of recent technological innovation and ”new” economy growth in China. Arguably these companies provide some of the most convenient access to the drivers of China’s new economy.
The Transition from ”Old” to ”New” is Well Underway
While the transition from an ”old,” production-driven model to the ”new,” consumer and service-led economy will certainly not occur overnight, there are some notable indications that it is well underway. During the first two months of the year, state-owned enterprises saw profits fall 14.5% year-over-year while privately owned enterprises grew profits 5.4% during the same period. Furthermore, companies listed on the SME and ChiNext Boards experienced bottom line growth of 32% and 46% year-over-year, respectively. The IT, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors that characterize the ”new economy” all saw double digit percentage increases in profit growth as compared to 2015 performance. The emergence of the ”new” economy is more than a mere concept or official policy; it is, in my opinion, already coming to fruition.2
CNXT Gives Investors Access
Participating in China’s potential growth is possible via several VanEck ETFs that provide differentiated access to the Chinese capital markets. In particular, VanEck Vectors™ ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF (NYSE Arca: CNXT) seeks to track an index that is designed to hold the 100 largest and most liquid China A-share stocks listed and trading on the SME and ChiNext Boards of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
Authored by James Duffy, Product Manager, ETFs
ETFs is authored by VanEck thought leaders. VanEck is the sponsor of VanEck Vectors ETFs and is currently among the largest providers of exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. and worldwide. VanEck Vectors ETFs empower investors to help build better portfolios with access to compelling investment themes and strategies. Our ETFs span many global asset classes, and are built to be transparent, liquid, and pure-play reflections of target markets.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
1 Source: China Daily, March 11, 2016.
2 Financial Times, ”China earnings season reflects two-track economy,” April 3, 2016.
This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
The Fund is subject to risks which include, among others, those associated with investments in Chinese securities, particularly A-Shares, adviser and sub-adviser risk, risk of the RQFII regime, political and economic instability, inflation, confiscatory taxation, nationalization, expropriation, and market volatility, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. Foreign and emerging markets investments are subject to risks, which include changes in economic and political conditions, foreign currency fluctuations, changes in foreign regulations, changes in currency exchange rates, unstable governments, and limited trading capacity which may make these investments volatile in price or difficult to trade. Small and medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors.
Fund shares are not individually redeemable and will be issued and redeemed at their Net Asset Value (NAV) only through certain authorized broker-dealers in large, specified blocks of shares called ”creation units” and otherwise can be bought and sold only through exchange trading. Creation units are issued and redeemed principally in kind. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contains this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
