Etikett: coffee

Global Commodity ETP Quarterly Q3 2014

ETFSCommQ320141 Global Commodity ETP Quarterly Q3 2014Global Commodity ETP Quarterly Q3 2014

Global Commodity ETP Quarterly Q3 2014 The report includes:

  1. A comprehensive and fully up-to-date reference guide to investing in global commodity ETPs and indexes – no ETP type or geographic area is excluded. The report details the large and growing choice of commodity ETP exposures and strategies around the world.
  2. Summary analysis of global commodity ETP flows, trading volumes and AUM trends. Includes a detailed analysis of the main trends in Q3 2014 and the outlook for the rest of the year.
  3. Roll yield analysis (contango/backwardation) broken down by individual commodity and commodity sectors.
  4. Useful fundamental commodity data and information. An updated and revised inventory trends section, positioning data, futures curve developments, commodity index compositions and weights.

 

Click here to download the complete report (.pdf)

 

Throughout the Global Commodity ETP Quarterly, commodity ETPs have been grouped into six main sectors as detailed below:

  • Diversified Broad contains Diversified Broad, Diversified Broad ex Agriculture and Livestock, Diversified Broad Light Energy and Diversified Broad ex Energy basket commodity ETPs
  • Agriculture contains Diversified Agriculture basket, Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Grains, Rice, Softs, Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Sugar and Wheat commodity ETPs
  • Energy contains Diversified Energy basket, Biofuels, Carbon, Coal, Crude Oil, Electricity, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Natural Gas and Petroleum commodity ETPs
  • Industrial Metals contains Diversified Industrial Metals basket, Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin, Uranium and Zinc commodity ETPs
  • Livestock contains Diversified Livestock basket, Feeder Cattle, Lean Hogs and Live Cattle commodity ETPs
  • Precious Metals contains Diversified Precious Metals basket, Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Rhodium and Silver commodity ETPs Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) is the umbrella term covering Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Exchange Traded Commodities (ETCs), Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs), US Limited Partnerships (LPs), US Guarantor and other statutory trusts. Commodity ETPs are open-ended securities listed on a stock exchange tracking an underlying commodity asset. They do not include ETPs tracking the listed equities of companies involved in commodity businesses.

If not otherwise stated, all data in the publication is in US dollars.

 

Commodity ETP Flows Resilient in the Face of Price Declines

 

Summary

 

Commodity ETPs were hit hard in Q3 2014 as a strong US dollar and concerns about China and Europé growth knocked many commodity prices down towards their production costs.

Following two consecutive quarters of increases, commodity ETP assets under management (AUM) fell by US$12.6bn to US$110.7bn, the lowest level since Q1 2010. However, close to 96% of the AUM decline was caused by price declines, with net investor outflows during the quarter a relatively resilient US$550mn.

The resilience of investor flows likely reflects a number of factors. The first is that most of the large, leveraged tactical players in commodity ETPs cleared their positions in 2013, as reflected in the large outflows that year. The bulk of investors in commodity ETPs today tend to be strategic investors with medium to long-term time horizons who tend to be less sensitive to short term price swings.

A second key factor is that with most commodities now trading near (and in some cases below) their estimated all-in or marginal costs of production, many investors with long-term investment horizons are looking at current prices as attractive accumulation levels on the view on-going production cuts and a steady structural rise in demand from increasingly wealthy large population developing countries will ultimately push prices higher.

Lastly, a large part of the commodity price declines over the past month or so has been driven by the strong rally in the US dollar and concerns about slower growth in China and Europe. US dollar strength is being driven by healthy US economic growth – a positive for commodity demand. Meanwhile, policy-makers in both China and Europe have started – and are expected to continue – to react strongly to recent signs of economic weakness.

Given the above potential positive price catalysts and the fact that many commodities are trading at their lowest levels relative to their production costs since the crisis of 2008, there are some signs tactical investors are beginning to nibble – particularly with valuations across a number of major equity and most fixed income markets looking stretched. Over the course of Q3, broad commodity index ETPs saw inflows as well as some of the more bombed out individual commodities and sectors such as agriculture, select industrial metals and natural gas.

Key Trends

 

Gold ETPs accounted for nearly 60% of the decline in global commodity ETP AUM, with AUM dropping by US$7.4bn to US$69bn. Of the AUM decline, 82% was due to the gold price decline over the quarter. While investors sold into the price decline, selling was far more muted than during the price declines of 2013, indicating most tactical investors have already exited.

 

 

After gold, platinum and palladium saw the largest outflows in Q3, with US$194mn and US$74mn of outflows respectively. Silver ETPs saw the largest inflows in Q3, with US$452mn of net new investor flows despite (or perhaps because of) the sharp price decline. Many investors appear to view the silver price below US$20/oz as a good long-term accumulation level.

 

 

Agriculture ETPs also saw inflows during the quarter as low prices brought investors into most of the grains as well as cotton.

 

Broad commodity index tracking commodity ETPs saw inflows of US$561mn in Q3 2014, indicating strategic investors are starting to view commodities as a more attractive asset class as equity and bond market valuations have become more stretched and commodity prices have declined.

 

Oil ETPs saw strong inflows in August as prices lurched lower, however in September these flows reversed as it appears some investors capitulated in the face of continued price declines. For the quarter as a whole oil ETPs saw US$83mn of outflows. Meanwhile as the natural gas fell from its heights investors started to nibble, with US$21 of inflows

 

Industrial metal ETPs saw mixed flows, with the net result a very modest US$29mn of inflows into the sector. While copper ETPs saw US$29mn of outflows, aluminium, nickel and industrial metal basket ETPs all saw inflows.

 

Summary and Outlook

 

Assuming the US maintains its current economic trajectory, the key to commodity performance and flows through the rest of 2014 and into 2015 will be how successful both Europe and China are in restimulating their economies. Stronger economic growth in both of these major markets would not only help boost commodity demand and improve general sentiment, but also likely take some of the steam out of the very strong recent US dollar rally (which has been as much about weakness abroad as strength at home) that has been weighing on commodity performance. Increasingly aggressive easing moves by ECB President Mario Draghi and policy-makers in China in the coming months and quarters could be the stimulus commodity markets have been waiting for.

Click here to download the complete report (.pdf)

 

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof.Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information.ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise.ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

US Equities Outpace Eurozone, as USD Strength Hits Commodities (For Now)

US Equities Outpace Eurozone, as USD Strength Hits Commodities (For Now)

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – US Equities Outpace Eurozone, as USD Strength Hits Commodities (For Now)

Highlights

  • Arabica coffee jumps over 14% in a week on supply fears.
  • US energy infrastructure continues to benefit from the surge in US oil supply.
  • US jobs confirm robust recovery and fuel further USD upside momentum.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

While negative sentiment towards commodities and global equities prevailed last week, stronger fundamentals helped to lift the US energy infrastructure sector and the US Dollar. The striking improvement in the US economy and labour market should be supportive of cyclical assets once investors return to focus on the positive underlying conditions. With US non-farm payrolls surprising the market on the upside last week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the FOMC minutes this week as the recent conservative tone of the Fed could change quickly if the economic rebound continues, keeping USD buoyant.

Commodities

Arabica coffee jumps over 14% in a week on supply fears. Brazil’s worst drought in decades saw Arabica coffee prices soaring 88% since the beginning of the year. Prices have been rising on the back of fears that continued dry weather in Brazil, the biggest producer, might negatively impact next year crop. However, exports continued to increase despite fears of 2015 tightness. Wheat also continued to rise last week, as elevated domestic prices for the grain in Russia rendered Russian supply non-competitive on the market. Russia is a major player in the wheat market, accounting for 10% of global wheat exports in 2013. Meanwhile, nickel lost over 7% last week, as LME stocks surged 37% this year. However, with Indonesia, the biggest producer, sticking to an ore export ban that has already reduced the expected surplus, the recent correction appears excessive.

Equities

US energy infrastructure continues to benefit from the surge in US oil supply. The Solactive US Energy Infrastructure MLP Index TR increased by 1.3% as US oil supply nears its level 30 years ago. Meanwhile, president Draghi indicated last Thursday that it will continue to keep policy supportive of the Eurozone economy, keeping interest rate low at 0.5%. The ECB meeting failed however to support European stocks, down for the second consecutive week on lower-than-expected manufacturing PMI for September, reinforcing growth worries in the region. Short European indices rose 6% on average over the past week while the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index witnessed its highest weekly gain since February 2013, up 10.1% over the same period. In contrast, the MSCI China A Index posted gains for the second week in a row supported by better official manufacturing activity in September.

Currencies

US jobs confirm robust recovery and fuel further USD upside momentum. Better-than-expected US jobs highlighted the underlying strength of the labour market and the rising potential of household consumption. Indeed, the unemployment rate dropped below 6% for the first time in six years. While investors will be keeping a close eye on the FOMC minutes this week, the recent conservative tone of the Fed is likely to change quickly if the strength across the economy continues. The dual mandate of the Fed is being confirmed on the jobs front, and we expect inflationary expectations too begin to follow and to move the Fed onto a tightening path in H1 2015. Such expectations necessarily will be supportive of further broad based USD strength. Meanwhile, the UK growth momentum continues to fade. Bank of England policymakers are split on when to rate hikes, we expect the latest developments to help unify the Board, and keep downward pressure on GBP.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Commodities Looking Increasingly Attractive At Current Levels

Commodities Looking Increasingly Attractive At Current Levels

Commodity ETP Weekly Commodities Looking Increasingly Attractive At Current Levels

Long gold and silver ETPs see US$88mn and US$46mn of outflows on negative sentiment.
Nickel bucks the trend as price drops to a six-month low.
Profit taking drives US$7mn of outflows from long coffee ETPs.

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

 

Negative sentiment towards commodities prevailed last week, prompting some investors to cut their losses. While the striking improvement in the US economy and labour market has prompted the Fed to reduce stimulus and the market to consider an earlier than originally foreseen rate hike, a stronger US economy should benefit cyclical assets. With most commodities trading at multi-year lows and investors mostly short-positioned, we believe most commodities are looking increasingly attractive at current levels.

Long gold and silver ETPs see US$88mn and US$46mn of outflows on negative sentiment. US non-farm payrolls surprised the market on the upside last week, with 248k new jobs added. While the striking improvement in the US economy and labour market has prompted the Fed to reduce stimulus and the market to consider an earlier than originally foreseen rate hike, a stronger US economy should benefit silver. Over 50% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, with China and the US accounting for over 40% of fabrication demand. We believe silver is looking increasingly attractive at current levels. With the US policy finally normalising albeit alongside the better economic outlook, silver price is also expected to pick up momentum. PGMs (“Platinum Group Metals”) also saw outflows last week, as the sharp drop in price prompted investors to cut losses in their portfolio. However, we believe the current price weakness to be temporary as investors will return to focus on the positive fundamentals. Large deficits are already expected in both markets this year and the recent pick up in global auto sales is likely to exacerbate the situation further. With platinum marginal cost of production close to US$1,400oz (11% above current prices) and prices close to or below pre-strike levels, we see value in both metals.

Nickel bucks the trend as price drops to a six-month low. ETFS Nickel (NICK) received US$4.5mn of inflows last week, bucking the negative trend in industrial metals, as investors see the recent price correction as a buying opportunity. While LME stocks have increased by 37% since the beginning of the year, Indonesia, the biggest producer, is sticking to an ore export ban that has drastically reduced the expected surplus to 10,900 tons from 78,100 tons last year. Meanwhile, ETFS Aluminium (ALUM) and ETFS Copper (COPA) suffered US$130mn of combined outflows as negative sentiment towards industrial metals persisted. Although China’s official manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 51.1 in September, fears of a slowdown in the economy have weighed on metals lately. With most commodities now trading at multi-year lows, we believe it is a good time to increase the exposure to this asset class.

Profit taking drives US$7mn of outflows from long coffee ETPs. Prices have been rising on the back of fears that continued dry weather in Brazil, the biggest producer, might negatively impact next year crop. Brazil’s worst drought in decades saw Arabica coffee prices soaring 88% since the beginning of the year.

Key events to watch this week. The release of the Fed minutes and Bank of England rate decision will be the centre of attention this week as the market judges the timing of the first rate hike in both countries. With US Non-Farm Payrolls surprising the market on the upside last week and the US economy continuing to strengthen, the Fed is likely to tighten earlier than originally anticipated.

Video Presentation

 

Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

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Eurozone and UK Uncertainty Dampens Investor Sentiment

Eurozone and UK Uncertainty Dampens Investor Sentiment

Eurozone and UK Uncertainty Dampens Investor Sentiment ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly

Highlights

Coffee remains volatile ahead of Brazilian state estimates of this year’s crop.

European stocks drop as Russian sanctions and Scottish vote unnerve investors.

Commodity currencies under pressure as FX volatility rises.

Cyclical commodities and European equities fell last week as investors refrained from taking on big bets ahead of the Scottish referendum or the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week. Meanwhile the EU’s tightening of sanctions against Russia last Friday is likely to consolidate the risk-averse behavior investors have been displaying lately. A batch of weaker-than-expected data from China also dented global sentiment, although Chinese stocks appear to have shrugged of the news with the MSCI China A index posting gains last week.

Commodities

Coffee remains volatile ahead of Brazilian state estimates of this year’s crop. Coffee fell 8.4%, wiping out the past month’s excessive gains. As the Brazilian coffee harvest comes closer to an end, prices have been sent into a volatile spin as speculators guess the impact of this year’s drought on the crop. A report by CONAB, Brazil’s National Supply Company this week should give investors a better forecast of the progress of this year’s harvest. The USDA released its World Agricultural Demand and Supply report which was bullish on cotton and bearish on wheat. Cotton prices jumped 4.0%, while wheat fell 3.9%. Lean hogs and livestock also rose 2.7% and 1.1% respectively as the same report projected lower pork and beef production. Zinc, nickel and lead fell 5.7%, 5.1% and 4.9%, respectively, as a batch of weak Chinese data hurt sentiment toward the cyclical metals. At the same time the probability of the Philippines following Indonesia’s example in banning ore exports has lessened, reducing some of the premium in these metals.

Equities

European stocks drop as Russian sanctions and Scottish vote unnerve investors. Investor sentiment has been buffeted by increased uncertainty over the potential outcome of the Scottish independence vote, alongside concerns over geopolitical risks affecting growth. The ‘Better Together’ campaign appears to have recovered after the previous week pro-independence push, but uncertainty ahead of the Thursday’s vote has been weighing on European equities. The FTSE 100® Super Short Strategy Index closed the week up 2.2% – the first time since beginning of August. While the price of gold slipped for the second consecutive week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting as the USD strengthened, the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index surged 8.2%, the largest weekly gain over the past year. Meanwhile, the MSCI China A Index shrugged off weaker Chinese economic data, posting an 1% gain last week

Currencies

Commodity currencies under pressure as FX volatility rises. Rising volatility has been supportive of USD with commodity currencies recording weakness alongside the price declines experienced across a broad range of commodities. The key risk that could hamper further USD strength this week will be any dovish rhetoric from the Fed after the weaker-than-expected jobs report. Meanwhile the GBP will remain in focus with the Scottish election appearing to be a closely run event. While we expect GBP to rebound if the ‘No’ campaign against independence wins out, we feel that this would present an opportunity to sell into such rally and remain bearish on the Pound against the USD. The other key event this week will be the extent of the take up of the introduction of the ECB’s latest stimulus, the TLTRO. The ECB remains committed to increasing its support to the Eurozone economy and we expect further Euro weakness as the ECB’s balance sheet begins to balloon.

To read the complete report, please click here.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Investors Hedging Geopolitical Risks

Investors Hedging Geopolitical Risks

Investors Hedging Geopolitical Risks. Arabica coffee rallies on low crop expectations for the 2015/16 season.

European equities sustain gains ahead of ECB policy meeting.

US Dollar to remain strong on dovish central bank rhetoric.

Investors’ focus remained on geopolitical risks last week, with palladium and gold mining companies benefiting from the escalating conflict in the Ukraine. Russian posturing appears to be escalating and increasingly questioning Ukrainian sovereignty and the UN has urged Western nations to intervene. This week, the focus will likely be central bank policy, with the recent conservative tone keeping the USD well supported.

Commodities

Arabica coffee rallies on low crop expectations for the 2015/16 season. Fears that the drought at the beginning of this year might impact also next year’s production prompted a 5.5% jump in Arabica coffee prices last week. Meanwhile palladium gained 2.4% last week and it is now trading above US$900oz as the Ukrainian- Russian conflict escalates. Russia is palladium biggest producer with 42% of production and potential trade sanctions to be imposed against the country could substantially disrupt supply of the metal. While palladium is likely to continue being buoyed by heightened geopolitical risks, we believe platinum underperformance is excessive and anticipate the spread between the two metals will widen over the next few months. Tin was the worst performing metal last week, losing 2.1%, as the International Tin Research Institute announced they no longer expect a supply deficit in the tin market in 2014 on higher production.

Equities

European equities sustain gains ahead of ECB policy meeting. Last week saw European equity benchmarks rising for the third consecutive week as investors see potential of fresh action from the European Central Bank (ECB) at this week’s policy meeting, following Draghi’s dovish speech at the Jackson Hole. While European leveraged indices rose 1.7% on average over the past week, US equities ended the period relatively flat, despite US GDP at 4.2% for Q2 (yoy), highlighting the impressive pace of economic recovery. Meanwhile, the gold price rebounded near the US$1,300/oz on the revival of tensions in Ukraine, lending support to the DAXglobal® Gold Miners Index, which gained 1.1% over the same period. In our view, the price momentum on gold is likely to continue provided that Russia continues to dispute Ukrainian sovereignty.

Currencies

US Dollar to remain strong on dovish central bank rhetoric. The conservative tone from central bank policymakers is expected to continue this week, with scheduled meetings from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Supporting the nascent recovery against potential deflationary threats will remain the key message. We do not expect any additional policy measures to be implemented and that all central banks remain in a ‘wait and see’ mode. While new TLTRO measures from the ECB only come into effect in mid-September, President Draghi will be keen to advocate its support for the economy, keeping weight on the Euro. Deflation is the key problem for both Europe and Japan, but while more Yen weakness is likely, Governor Kuroda will be looking for any evidence of wage growth before adding more stimulus. The jobs market continues to be a key focus for policymakers and we expect strong US nonfarm payrolls to show the US recovery is on track, with further US Dollar gains likely.

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ETF Securities Research team
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