Kolet är den hetaste råvaran när den globala ekonomin stärks
En växande ekonomi och förbättrad tillverkningsverksamhet i Asien, särskilt Kina, har drivit efterfrågan på kol. Det stärker också den börshandlade fonden som fokuserar på kol, VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (NYSEArca: KOL). Denna ETF har noterat sin högsta nivå på 52 veckor, har under det senaste året stigit med mer än 37 procent. Det är ingen överdrift att säga att Kolet är den hetaste råvaran när den globala ekonomin stärks.
Stöda av vinsterna inom kolindustrin pekar observatörer på den starkaste perioden av expansion i tillverkningsverksamheten och den globala ekonomin sedan finansnedgången, rapporterar Financial Times.
Enligt BMO Capital Markets ökade koleldad kraftproduktion i de flesta av Asiens stora ekonomier förra året, vilket stärkte efterfrågan. Det fossila bränslet utgör fortfarande 40 procent av energiförbrukningen på tillväxtmarknaderna.
Termisk kol
Efterfrågan på termisk kol drivs återigen av den asiatiska tillväxten och urbaniseringen, berättade Glencores verkställande direktör Ivan Glasenberg för Financial Times. ”Det är en annan råvara där det har varit underinvesteringar genom åren.
Enligt UBS Group AG förväntas kolpriserna stanna nära de högsta nivåerna på fem år som Kinas strävan att stävja överkapacitet genom att möta importefterfrågan. Vi tror att Kina kommer att fortsätta att minska sin kapacitet genom 2018 och in i 2019 sade UBS Group AG analytiker Lachlan Shaw. Han fortsatte med att säga att han tror att vi kommer att få se en större efterfrågan på sjöburen termiskt kol. Kineserna har gjort goda framsteg men de har en bit att gå i fråga om kapacitetsmålen.
Den övergripande globala utbudsutsikterna ser också mindre lovande ut. Det sker ingen prospektering eller utveckling av nya termiska kolgruvor. Projekten blir allt svårare att finansiera som banker och investerare är oroade över miljöfrågor, vilket ytterligare stramar åt marknaden och driver upp priserna.
Overview: VanEck’s natural resources investment strategy spans the breadth of raw materials commodities sectors, and the coal and consumable fuels sub-sector can play an important role. Not least, the global steel industry is dependent on coal. Metallurgical coal is essential to the steel making process with approximately 70% of the steel produced today using coal as a primary raw material. Metallurgic coal is also called “coking” coal because it is used to create coke, an irreplaceable input for steel production. Coking Coal Rally Driven by Supply Constraints
By the end of September, metallurgical coal prices had climbed more than 100% since the beginning of the year.1 The overwhelming driver behind this price recovery has been restriction in supply. In addition to both lower seaborne and domestic supply, inventories are also at multi-year lows. Although our view is that current prices are not likely to hold, we do foresee a continuation of a market environment that will be supportive of higher prices.
What is Metallurgical Coal?
Global steel production depends on coal. Metallurgical coal, or coking coal, is used in the process of making steel, and hence is often referred to as “steel making coal”. Coking coal is heated to about 2,700° F (1,100° C) in a coke oven, forcing out impurities to produce coke. Coke itself is almost pure carbon. Because of its high thermal energy and dearth of impurities, coke is used to convert iron ore into molten iron. This is then used to make a range of steel types.
Global Demand is Solid
Over the past three years, global demand for coking coal has been relatively solid at an annual level of around 990 million tonnes (Mt). China is one of the most important consumers in terms of setting prices, since it accounts for approximately 60%, or 590Mt, of global coking coal demand. It is followed by Japan at 69Mt, India at 49Mt, and South Korea at 40Mt. Demand from the U.S. is for about 21Mt per annum.
China has invested heavily in its steel industry and currently accounts for approximately 55% of the world’s steel production. The net result of this is that domestic Chinese coking coal supply has had to be supplemented by imported, or seaborne coal (Chart A). “Seaborne” refers to coal that is transported internationally overseas by ship, and refers mostly to the coking coal export market.
Chart A: Chinese Seaborne Coking Coal Demand and Steel Production
Yearly in Tonnes: 2000-2016
(click to enlarge) Source: VanEck, Bloomberg, World Steel Association, Australian Bureau of Statistic, Statistics Canada, and Chinese General Administration of Customs, as of 9/30/16.
Coking Coal Supply: The Seaborne Market and the Domestic Market
The global coking coal market is generally considered as being split between the seaborne (or export market) and the domestically traded market.
The Seaborne Market
The size of the global seaborne coking coal market was approximately 290Mt as of 2015 (Chart B). Despite being a much smaller market than the domestically traded coal market, the seaborne market is actively traded and, therefore, regarded as the price/trend indicator for all contracts.
Australia, the U.S., and Canada are the key suppliers of coking coal to the seaborne market. Seaborne supply reached record levels in 2014 as shown in Chart B. However, supply fell 8% in 2015 as producer profitability decreased, balance sheet quality deteriorated, and capital spending contracted. In 2016, supply has collapsed even more dramatically, and on an annualized basis, 2016 seaborne supply could be as low as 185Mt, or down 37%, a level last seen in 2004.
Chart B: Global Seaborne Coking Coal Supply
Yearly in Tonnes: 2000-2016
(click to enlarge) Source: VanEck, Bloomberg, Australian Bureau of Statistic, Statistics Canada, Chinese General Administration of Customs, and U.S. Census Bureau, as of 9/30/16.
The U.S. has had the largest impact on the shrinking supply to the seaborne market. Over the past three years, U.S. coking coal exports have fallen consistently, driven by subdued prices, lower margins, and/or restrictive environmental policies (Chart C). U.S. exports peaked at about 70Mt in 2012, but since then they have contracted by nearly 42% and 2016 exports are estimated at 40Mt. The export decline has been particularly pronounced over the past twelve months, a period in which 20Mt in capacity was lost.
Chart C: U.S. Coking Coal Exports
Quarterly in Tonnes: 2000-2016
(click to enlarge) Source: VanEck, Bloomberg, and U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of 9/30/16.
The Domestic Market
Domestic coking coal markets have also seen a dramatic reduction in supply. In 2016, China made a fundamental shift and implemented supply-side reforms in the domestic coal industry to curb overcapacity. In short, the reforms reduced the number of statutory working days for coal miners from 330 to 276. By mid-2016, in China, year-on-year production was down 20%, and in the coking coal-rich Shanxi province it was down 25% to 30%. As a result, because of lower supply and relatively solid demand, coking coal inventories in China are currently at multi-year lows.
Our Positive Outlook for Coking Coal
Current physical market conditions remain very tight. We believe that just as low prices have resulted in reduced supply, higher prices should lead to increased supply. At current spot market prices, virtually every tonne of seaborne coking coal will be cash positive.
While we do not expect current prices to hold, we do foresee a strong and supportive market that will keep prices higher than the current contract price (around $92.50 per tonne). This outlook is supported by a number of different factors. In addition to the fact that 70% of deals are executed by coking coal end-users and not traders, some 80% of concluded transactions were in Asia. On top of this, not only are coking coal inventories at coke plants at their lowest levels on record, demand for steel is also expected to remain solid. Taken together, we believe these factors provide a solid base for firm prices going forward.
AUTHORED BY
Charl Malan
Senior Analyst
________________________________________
Senior Analyst for the Natural Resources Equity strategy; specializes in Base and Industrial Metals; also serves on the investment team for the Gold Equity strategy
Investment Management Team member since 2003
Prior to joining VanEck, an equity research sales analyst specializing in South African mining, natural resources, and financial sectors at JPMorgan Chase; actively involved in the merger of BHP Billiton/SAB Miller and unbundling of Iscor Steel/Kumba Resources as well as capital raisings and NYSE listing of Harmony Gold, Gold Fields, and Telkom SA
Previously an equity research analyst and junior portfolio manager at Standard Corporate and Merchant Bank, Asset Management (South Africa); developed and applied various fundamental and quantitative models within the natural resources, mining, and consumer sectors; established an equity research department and managed Standard Corporate and Merchant Bank, Asset Management (Namibia)
Media appearances include ROBTv; quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Forbes, CNBC, and The Financial Times, among others; also featured in mining journals such as miningmx, Mining Journal, and Resource Investor
MBA, University of Stellenbosch (South Africa); Honours in Business Administration, University of Stellenbosch (South Africa); BA, Arts, University of Pretoria (South Africa)
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
1 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9/30/16 is based on the TSIPPCAE Index: Premium Hard Coking Coal Australia Export (FOB East Coast port) USD/tonne. This price index is compiled by The Steel Index Ltd (TSI), and it represents the volume-weighted average of actual transaction price data submitted confidentially online to TSI by companies operating within the relevant supply chain, including buyers and sellers, based on their latest sales and/or purchases within this product category. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund or strategy’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
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Vinnare och förlorare ETF-marknaden vecka 24 2015. Tillhör Du dem som anser att det går för långsamt med fonder? Med rätt börshandlad fond kan det gå snabbt, nedan har vi listat Vinnare och förlorare ETFer vecka 24 2015 på den amerikanska marknaden. Observera att i sammanställningen inte ingår några så kallade hävstångs-ETFer.
Förra helgens OPEC-möte har gett effekt på energipriserna, både oljan och naturgasen gynnades och steg när det visade sig att OPEC valde att inte öka sina produktionskvoter vilket många hade befarat. Istället valde OPEC att låta produktionskvoterna ligga fast. Inte mindre än tre av de fem bästa börshandlade fonderna denna vecka är sådana som replikerar utvecklingen av olja och naturgas.
Notabelt är att detta även styrde vilka ETFer som har gått sämst, både uran och kol har gått sämre, då detta är energikällor där efterfrågan, och därmed också priset, styrs av pris och tillgång på olja. Dessa råvaror är helt enkelt substitut till olja som en energikälla.
Global Commodity ETP Quarterly Q3 2014 The report includes:
A comprehensive and fully up-to-date reference guide to investing in global commodity ETPs and indexes – no ETP type or geographic area is excluded. The report details the large and growing choice of commodity ETP exposures and strategies around the world.
Summary analysis of global commodity ETP flows, trading volumes and AUM trends. Includes a detailed analysis of the main trends in Q3 2014 and the outlook for the rest of the year.
Roll yield analysis (contango/backwardation) broken down by individual commodity and commodity sectors.
Useful fundamental commodity data and information. An updated and revised inventory trends section, positioning data, futures curve developments, commodity index compositions and weights.
Throughout the Global Commodity ETP Quarterly, commodity ETPs have been grouped into six main sectors as detailed below:
Diversified Broad contains Diversified Broad, Diversified Broad ex Agriculture and Livestock, Diversified Broad Light Energy and Diversified Broad ex Energy basket commodity ETPs
Energy contains Diversified Energy basket, Biofuels, Carbon, Coal, Crude Oil, Electricity, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Natural Gas and Petroleum commodity ETPs
Livestock contains Diversified Livestock basket, Feeder Cattle, Lean Hogs and Live Cattle commodity ETPs
Precious Metals contains Diversified Precious Metals basket, Gold, Palladium, Platinum, Rhodium and Silver commodity ETPs Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) is the umbrella term covering Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Exchange Traded Commodities (ETCs), Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs), US Limited Partnerships (LPs), US Guarantor and other statutory trusts. Commodity ETPs are open-ended securities listed on a stock exchange tracking an underlying commodity asset. They do not include ETPs tracking the listed equities of companies involved in commodity businesses.
If not otherwise stated, all data in the publication is in US dollars.
Commodity ETP Flows Resilient in the Face of Price Declines
Summary
Commodity ETPs were hit hard in Q3 2014 as a strong US dollar and concerns about China and Europé growth knocked many commodity prices down towards their production costs.
Following two consecutive quarters of increases, commodity ETP assets under management (AUM) fell by US$12.6bn to US$110.7bn, the lowest level since Q1 2010. However, close to 96% of the AUM decline was caused by price declines, with net investor outflows during the quarter a relatively resilient US$550mn.
The resilience of investor flows likely reflects a number of factors. The first is that most of the large, leveraged tactical players in commodity ETPs cleared their positions in 2013, as reflected in the large outflows that year. The bulk of investors in commodity ETPs today tend to be strategic investors with medium to long-term time horizons who tend to be less sensitive to short term price swings.
A second key factor is that with most commodities now trading near (and in some cases below) their estimated all-in or marginal costs of production, many investors with long-term investment horizons are looking at current prices as attractive accumulation levels on the view on-going production cuts and a steady structural rise in demand from increasingly wealthy large population developing countries will ultimately push prices higher.
Lastly, a large part of the commodity price declines over the past month or so has been driven by the strong rally in the US dollar and concerns about slower growth in China and Europe. US dollar strength is being driven by healthy US economic growth – a positive for commodity demand. Meanwhile, policy-makers in both China and Europe have started – and are expected to continue – to react strongly to recent signs of economic weakness.
Given the above potential positive price catalysts and the fact that many commodities are trading at their lowest levels relative to their production costs since the crisis of 2008, there are some signs tactical investors are beginning to nibble – particularly with valuations across a number of major equity and most fixed income markets looking stretched. Over the course of Q3, broad commodity index ETPs saw inflows as well as some of the more bombed out individual commodities and sectors such as agriculture, select industrial metals and natural gas.
Key Trends
Gold ETPs accounted for nearly 60% of the decline in global commodity ETP AUM, with AUM dropping by US$7.4bn to US$69bn. Of the AUM decline, 82% was due to the gold price decline over the quarter. While investors sold into the price decline, selling was far more muted than during the price declines of 2013, indicating most tactical investors have already exited.
After gold, platinum and palladium saw the largest outflows in Q3, with US$194mn and US$74mn of outflows respectively. Silver ETPs saw the largest inflows in Q3, with US$452mn of net new investor flows despite (or perhaps because of) the sharp price decline. Many investors appear to view the silver price below US$20/oz as a good long-term accumulation level.
Agriculture ETPs also saw inflows during the quarter as low prices brought investors into most of the grains as well as cotton.
Broad commodity index tracking commodity ETPs saw inflows of US$561mn in Q3 2014, indicating strategic investors are starting to view commodities as a more attractive asset class as equity and bond market valuations have become more stretched and commodity prices have declined.
Oil ETPs saw strong inflows in August as prices lurched lower, however in September these flows reversed as it appears some investors capitulated in the face of continued price declines. For the quarter as a whole oil ETPs saw US$83mn of outflows. Meanwhile as the natural gas fell from its heights investors started to nibble, with US$21 of inflows
Industrial metal ETPs saw mixed flows, with the net result a very modest US$29mn of inflows into the sector. While copper ETPs saw US$29mn of outflows, aluminium, nickel and industrial metal basket ETPs all saw inflows.
Summary and Outlook
Assuming the US maintains its current economic trajectory, the key to commodity performance and flows through the rest of 2014 and into 2015 will be how successful both Europe and China are in restimulating their economies. Stronger economic growth in both of these major markets would not only help boost commodity demand and improve general sentiment, but also likely take some of the steam out of the very strong recent US dollar rally (which has been as much about weakness abroad as strength at home) that has been weighing on commodity performance. Increasingly aggressive easing moves by ECB President Mario Draghi and policy-makers in China in the coming months and quarters could be the stimulus commodity markets have been waiting for.
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Fundamenta pressar kol-ETF till nya bottennivåer. Som en direkt följa av en avmattning i den kinesiska efterfrågan, men också andra faktorer har kolindustrin förlorat energi. KOL, den sektorsspecifika ETF som fokuserar på kolsektorn noterade i förra veckan den lägsta nivån på ett år.
Market Vectors-COAL ETF (NYSEArca: KOL) slog noterade 17,00 USD per aktie, den lägsta nivån på 52-veckors. Year-to-date, har denna börshandlade fond backat med 9,2 procent.
Kina kräver energi och bränsle och har därför stått för mer än 50 procent av de den globala kolförbrukningen. Avmattningen i den kinesiska ekonomin har lett till att Carbon Track Initiative spår att Kinas framtida efterfrågan på kol blir lägre än väntat. The Institute of Economics and Financial Analysis gör bedömningen att den kinesiska efterfrågan på kol kommer att toppa 2016 innan landet går över till alternativa energikällor i ett försök att minska föroreningsnivåerna. Med lägre efterfrågan och ett utbudsöverflöd, har kolpriserna stadigt minskat sedan början av 2011.
Framför allt visar det att de höga kostnaderna för att öppna nya gruvor gör att det inte är ekonomiskt att starta upp dem med dagens priser och det är osannolikt att generera avkastning till investerare i framtiden. De företagen är mest utsatta för den låga efterfrågan på kol är de som utvecklar nya projekt, med fokus på exportmarknaden. Exempelvis har metallurgiskt kol eller kokskol som används för smältning av järnmalm, sjunkit till en sex-årslägsta.
Goldman Sachs analytiker Neil Mehta tror att kolpriserna kan fortsätta att falla under det fjärde kvartalet. Följaktligen nedgraderade Goldman Sachs sin syn på kolgruveföretag, till exempel Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX), SunCoke (NYSE: SXC), Peabody (NYSE: BTU) och Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR).
Som svar har vissa företag varit tvungna att sänka kostnaderna och skära ner på personalstyrkan. Till exempel har Australiens största kolgruveföretag sagt upp personal i syfte att förbli konkurrenskraftiga.
Tillsammans med sin tunga 37-procentiga exponering mot amerikanska företag, erbjuder Market Vectors Coal ETF för utomeuropeiska marknader som Kina 21,7 procent och Australien 10,7 procent.
