MSCI kan begränsa Brasilien och Indien i emerging market index
MSCI Inc, en av de största leverantörerna av index för användning av emittenter av börshandlade fonder, överväger att minska vikterna på två av de största tillväxtmarknaderna i sina stora internationella aktieindex. Bland de länder som kunde se sina vikter är Brasilienoch Indien, två av de största utvecklingsekonomierna. MSCI kan begränsa Brasilien och Indieni emerging market index.
”De två länderna, tillsammans med Turkiet och Sydkorea, är” potentiella framtida exempel ”på marknader vars vikter kan begränsas på MSCI-index, sade det New York-baserade företaget i en presentation på sin webbplats under onsdagen”, rapporterar Bloomberg.
15,5 procent Sydkorea
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM), som spårar MSCI Emerging Markets Index, allokerar för närvarande 15,55% av sin vikt till Sydkorea. Detta är denna ETFs näst största landsvikt bakom Kina. Indien och Brasilien som kombinerat svarar för nästan 15 procent av fondens geografiska exponering.
De fyra länderna begränsar användningen av lokala data i derivat som skapats av offshore-börser, vilket innebär att de strider mot MSCI: s konkurrensbestämmelser enligt Bloomberg.
Allt om åtkomst till MSCI ETF
Indien, Asiens tredje största ekonomi, har också tunga krav på utländska investerare. Nyheter om MSCI: s undersökning av Brasilien, Indien, Sydkoreaoch Turkietkommer samtidigt som indexleverantören förbereder sig för att lägga till kinesiska A-aktier i MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
”Den 31 maj kom MSCI delvis att inkludera cirka 233 Kina A-aktier i MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Nästan 2 biljoner dollar spårar det regionala indexet, vilket motsvarar mer än 85% av alla tillgångar på tillväxtmarknaden, ”enligt MSCI.
GIFT City
Indien öppnade nyligen Gujarat International Finance Tec-City eller GIFT City, och tillsynsmyndigheter gör det lättare för internationella investerare att handla värdepapper där som en del av landets ansträngningar för att stärka utländsk investerar tillgänglighet. GIFT City är dock ännu inte ett trovärdigt alternativ till Indiens etablerade aktiebörser.
MSCI samråder med sina kunder i frågor som rör tillgång till Brasilien, Indien, Sydkorea och Turkiet och planerar att släppa resultaten av dessa samråd i slutet av året.
Saudiarabientilldelades för första gången klassificering som en emerging market av en stor indexkompilator. Att Saudiarabien får status som emerging market är ett viktigt steg mot rikets mål att locka miljarder i ytterligare investeringar till landets aktiemarknad.
FTSE Russell sade att detta land i Mellanösternkommer att ingå i dess sekundära tillväxtmarknadsgruppering från och med mars 2019, enligt ett uttalande på onsdag. Saudiarabien hamnar därmed i en kategori länder som omfattar bland annat Kina, Ryssland och Indien. Saudiarabien kommer att ha en vikt på 2,7 procent i kompilatorns huvudmarknadsindex, säger FTSE.
Saudiarabien ska gratuleras till takten i landets senaste marknadsreformer, säger Mark Makepeace, FTSE Russells verkställande direktör. FTSE: s beslut är ett av två indexmeddelanden som rikets regulatorer – och marknaderna – väntat på. MSCI Inc. förväntas meddela om Saudiarabien får status som emerging market i deras index under juni 2018.
Det största offentliga erbjudandet någonsin
Meddelandet välkomnades av den saudiska kronprinsen Mohammed Bin Salman, som är i USA på en turné som inkluderar stopp i Washington och New York. Han har s en plan som syftar till att omvandla nationens ekonomi, bland annat omvandla landets nästan 500 miljarder dollar aktiemarknaden till en gateway för utländska investeringar. Investerare väntar också på vad som kan vara det största offentliga erbjudandet någonsin, det statligt ägda Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
Vissa potentiella investerare har avstått från den saudiska aktiemarknaden, vilket speglar oro på politisk omvälvning som kulminerade i slutet av förra året i kvarhållandet av dussintals prinsar och medlemmar av affärseliten i vad kronprinsen sa var en nedbrytning av korruptionen. Sentimentet verkar förbättras, enligt seniora saudiska tjänstemän.
Sarah Al-Suhaimi, ordföranden för Riyadhbörsen, känd som Tadawul, sade i en intervju i New York före meddelandet att samtal med investerare har varit positivt och att FTSE-integrationen kunde räknas om till cirka 3 miljarder dollar i investeringar till Saudiarabien. Hon är ”lika optimistisk” när det gäller MSCI: s beslut, sa Al-Suhaimi.
Marknadsförstärkning
Förväntningar om att den största ekonomin i Mellanöstern skulle erhålla en statusuppgradering har hjälpt till att öka landets börsindex under år 2018. Tadawul All Share Index har stigit 8,3 procent i år. Indexet sjönk 0,7 procent på torsdagen då det positiva beslutet sågs som inprisat i aktiekurserna. En börshandlad fond med inriktning på saudiska aktier, iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia Capped ETF (NYSEArca: KSA), har avancerat nästan 9 procent i mars. Det ironiska är att denna ETF inte följer ett index från FTSE Russell. KSA spårar ett index som heter MSCI Saudi Arabia IMI 25/50 Index.
Denna börshandlade fond kom att lanseras i weptember 2015 och är den enda börshandlade fonder i USA som investerar i saudiska aktier.
FTSE: s tillväxtmarknadsbeteckning kan leda till att inflöden på cirka 5 miljarder dollar kommer från passiva investerare som följer indexet, enligt estimat från Mohamad Al Hajj, en strategist för aktiemarknaden vid forskningsgruppen för EFG-Hermes Holding. Om MSCI följer samma väg som FTSE i juni, kan ytterligare 10 miljarder dollar komma att allokeras i saudiarabiska aktier.
Det finns emellertid skeptiker. En ökning av inflöden kopplade till införlivandet i tillväxtmarknadsindexet kommer snart att avta ut, skrev Jason Tuvey, Capital Economics, i en analys i onsdags. Aktiemarknaderna i Qataroch Förenade Arabemiraten ökade i väntan på EM-indexintegrationen 2014 och föll sedan strax efter skrev han.
Men med en potentiell MSCI-inkludering som ligger framför Saudiarabien, är ytterligare uppåtsidan för aktierna möjligt, säger Muhammad Faisal Potrik, analyschef vid Riyad Capital i den saudiarabiska huvudstaden. Hans prognos för årsslutet för det saudiarabiska börsindexet nåddes i veckan, sa han. ”Vi skulle noggrant följa företagens vinst och tecken som motiverar ytterligare prisökning, uppdatering av våra synpunkter med tiden, men skulle undvika att hoppa på den spekulativa bandvagnen.”
Vad ska man köpa?
Utländska investerare har varit nettoköpare av saudiska aktier varje vecka i år, enligt uppgifter från börsen och sammanställd av Bloomberg. Per den 22 mars var utlänningar nettoinköpare på 6,2 miljarder riyaler (1,7 miljarder dollar).
Fortfarande representerar de mindre än 5 procent av det totala ägandet av saudiarabiska aktier. Även före den förväntade utländska tillströmningen handlas aktierna i Riyadh till dyrare värderingar än deras tillväxtmarknadskollegor. Deras genomsnittliga beräknade p/e-tal var nära 14 gånger i veckan jämfört med 12 gånger för medlemmar i MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Kommer detta att ändras nu när det är känt att Saudiarabien får status som emerging market?
Kemikalie- och ståltillverkare Saudi Basic Industries Corp och Al Rajhi Bank är vara företag som troligen kommer att dra till sig det starkaste intresset från investerare utomlands, enligt EFG-Hermes ’Al Hajj.
Här är de 10 aktier som han uppskattar kommer att se de största inflödena
En börshandlad fond för kinesiska large cap aktier
När aktiekurserna i de utvecklade ekonomierna ligger på sina högsta nivåer på ungefär tre år överväger vissa investerare alternativ. En marknad som flera väljer att titta på är Kina, världens största emerging market. iShares China Large Cap ETF (NYSEArca: FXI), en av de största kinafokuserade börshandlade fonderna. FXI är en börshandlad fond för kinesiska large cap aktier som har utvecklats väl under 2017.
Löpande reformer, särskilt från utbudssidan, kan ytterligare stödja den kinesiska ekonomiska tillväxten. Reformer har stärkt industrins lönsamhet och stärkt råvarupriserna. Kinas exportörer åtnjuter också förbättringar från en återhämtning i den globala handeln.
En stabil och konsekvent tillväxt
Investerare kommer att ta hand om det faktum att Kinas ekonomiska tillväxt inte är vad den var under de senaste rusningarna för tillväxtmarknaderna. För en ekonomi som ofta anses vara för het, kan en stabil och konsekvent tillväxt vara vad utländska investerare verkligen vill se.
Den kinesiska ekonomin växlar över mot inhemsk konsumtion som en viktig tillväxtdrivare. Följaktligen blir konsumtionsdrivna sektorer som teknik och tjänster växande faktorer i den kinesiska ekonomin.
Mätt i dollar har FXI haft en genomsnittlig årlig avkastning på 8,62% sedan starten. Eftersom Kinabara varit igång över en börskrasch 2015, har den genomsnittliga årliga avkastningen under de senaste 3 och 5 åren bara varit 4,78% respektive 5,82%. Däremot tycks aktiemarknaden visa några tecken på återhämtning på senare tid med en avkastning på 18,91% under det senaste året.
Få aktier
FXI kritiseras ofta eftersom denna börshandlade fond bara innehar 51 aktier. Den allokerar dessutom 53 proent av sin vikt till finansiella tjänster, nästan fem gånger den näst största sektorns vikt.
Yuanens svaghet har varit en invändning för investerare som beaktar Kina. Det scenariot kan förändras till det bättre. Den kinesiska valutan kommer att stärkas när yuanen går in i Internationella valutafondens korg av reservervalutor, eftersom den går samman med i dollar, euro, pund och yen.
Med vikten av att yuanen tillväxt som ett alternativ till den amerikanska dollarn kan investeringsflöden till Kina hjälpa till att stödja de kinesiska marknader och landsspecifika börshandlade fonder.
FXI är ett utmärkt investeringsinstrument för placerare som vill investera på den största tillväxtmarknaden i världen. När man jämför Kina med S & P500 är FXI relativt billigt. Även om detta kan innebära en potential för högre avkastning, måste investerarna vara medvetna om den kinesiska marknadens stora volatilitet och de risker som är förknippade med Kina. Investerare bör vara försiktiga och undvika att jaga marknaden.
iShares China Large-Cap (NYSEArca: FXI)
Denna ETF replikerar investeringsresultaten av FTSE China 50 Index, ett index som består av kinesiska large cap aktier som handlas på Hongkongbörsen. Den här börshandlade fonden investerar i allmänhet åtminstone 90 % av sina tillgångar i värdepapper i det underliggande indexet och i depåbevis som representerar värdepapper i det underliggande indexet. Indexet är utformat för att följa utvecklingen av de största företagen på den kinesiska aktiemarknaden som är tillgängliga för internationella investerare. Fonden är icke-diversifierad.
MSCI has finally decided to include China mainland companies in its MSCI Emerging Market benchmark. While some obstacles that have prevented A-shares to be included in the past remain, many have been removed. As a result of the inclusion, A-shares stocks may benefit from short-term bet. We however believe that a credible reform agenda and adherence to it would be a stronger support for domestic companies over the longer run. China A-shares finally in after four attempts.
Yesterday evening, MSCI finally decided to include 222 A-shares stocks in the MSCI Emerging Market Index, an addition of 53 stocks compared to the 169 proposed, increasing the weight of the country in the benchmark by 0.73% (rather than 0.5%) to 28.4%.
The new proposal submitted yesterday has removed many of the obstacles from the original failed proposal discussed three years ago. Amongst other factors, the number of stocks has been trimmed down to 169 (proposed) from 448 as only large cap companies with the least liquidity issue were selected.
The implementation of a 5% inclusion factor from the index provider indicates that constraints remain on capital repatriation and foreign ownership limits. While full inclusion is still on the roadmap and while the Stock Connect system has increased confidence among foreign investors, China still has a long way to go as strict controls of the domestic capital markets are unlikely to be removed anytime soon.
Market participants have however welcomed the news whilst being cautious on the real impact of the inclusion on the valuation of China domestically-listed companies. A-shares price-to-earnings ratio relative to H-shares shows that A-shares is currently fairly valued with the relative PE ratio at 2.14 compared to its 1.92 median since 2008. So far this morning, there has been little reaction from the markets. We may see more movement once the US market opens later today.
With the size of the inclusion still representing a small proportion of the overall size of the Chinese market capitalisation, we believe a solid recovery of Chinese manufacturing PMI based on a credible reform agenda would be a stronger support for A-shares over the longer run.
Edith is a director, multi-asset strategist at ETF Securities, specialised in investment strategies across commodity, equity, currency and fixed-income. Edith has 9 years of experience in the ETP industry, with exposure to different aspects of the business, from product management to research and investment strategy. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Edith started her career working for Lyxor Asset Management in Paris as Marketing assistant. Edith holds a Master in Management with a major in Risk and Asset Management from the EDHEC business school (France).
Gold inflows rebound to the highest levels in 16 weeks, and the fourth consecutive week of inflows. Long Gold ETPs received US$65.4mn – the largest inflows across the commodity complex as the US Dollar rally has stalled somewhat and US inflation breached the 2% level for the first time since 2014. Inflation, and the US Federal Reserve’s ability to deal with it, is critical for the trajectory of gold in coming months, especially with the onset of the Trump-era fiscal spending policies. Prices could threaten the 3% level in coming months and if the Fed doesn’t raise rates to counter, falling real interest rates will lift gold. Nonetheless, the ‘devil is in the detail’ for President Trump’s pro-growth policy framework, and whether the impact is felt in 2017, or as we expect, more likely in 2018 could limit gold’s gains.
Emerging market bonds received largest inflows in eight weeks. Emerging government bond ETPs recorded inflows of US$22mn last week, as investors continued to look to EM space for better returns. Higher yielding EM bond ETPs have now posted the third consecutive week of inflows.
Profit taking in short JPY ETPs reaches the highest level since April 2016. Investors have reduced positions to the US Dollar against the Yen for the twelfth consecutive week, as the steep decline in the Yen appears to have lost momentum. Conflicting statements from incoming US Government policymakers have forced the dollar to trade a volatile range against the Yen over the past few weeks, with outflows from ETPs giving short exposure to the Yen against the Dollar totalling US$13.8mn last week.
Record inflows betting against commodity currencies, totalling US$7.4mn. Amid hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen and concern that President Trump’s policies could exacerbate a Chinese growth slowdown, investors have funded record positions in favour of the US Dollar and against a basket of commodity currencies (Australian Dollar, Norwegian Krone, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.) Bolstering such a trade is that oil prices remain near the top of recent ranges and with increasing production in the US, downside risk remains elevated.
Agricultural commodities received the largest inflows in six weeks, totalling US$18.3mn. Of the inflows, diversified basket exposures accounted for 21%, wheat 22% and cocoa 49%. The trend toward diversified investing hasn’t been confined to agriculture alone: over the past month, the most significant inflows into the energy, industrial metal and livestock sectors have been via diversified basket ETPs. Bargain hunting appears to be the driver for cocoa, as it has been the worst performing agricultural commodity over the past year, and the only one to post a negative return over the past month.
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France: Any subscription for shares of the Funds will be made on the basis of the terms of the prospectus, the simplified prospectus and any supplements or addenda thereto. The Company is a UCITS governed by Irish legislation and approved by the Financial Regulator as UCITS compliant with European regulations although may not have to comply with the same rules as those applicable to a similar product approved in France. Certain of the Funds have been registered for marketing in France by the Authority Financial Markets (Autorité des Marchés Financiers) and may be distributed to investors in France. Copies of all documents (i.e. the prospectus (including any supplements or addenda thereto, the Key Investor Information Document, the latest annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and articles of association) are available in France, free of charge, at the French Centralizing Agent, Société Générale, Securities Services, at 1-5 rue du Débarcadère, 92700 Colombes – France. Germany: The offering of the Shares of the Fund has been notified to the German Financial Services Supervisory Authority (BaFin) in accordance with section 310 of the German Investment Code (KAGB). Copies of all documents (i.e. the Key Investor Information Document (in the German language), the prospectus, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association) can be obtained free of charge upon request at the Paying and Information Agent in Germany, HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Königsallee 21-23, 40212 Düsseldorf and on www.etfsecurities.com. The current offering and redemption prices as well as the net asset value and possible notifications of the investors can also be requested free of charge at the same address. In Germany the Shares will be settled as co-owner shares in a Global Bearer certificate issued by Clearstream Banking AG. This type of settlement only occurs in Germany because there is no direct link between the English and German clearing and settlement systems CREST and Clearstream. For this reason the ISIN used for trading of the Shares in Germany differs from the ISIN used in other countries.
Netherlands: Each Fund has been registered with the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets following the UCITS passport-procedure pursuant to section 2:72 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act.
United Kingdom: Each Fund is a recognised scheme under section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and so the prospectus may be distributed to investors in the United Kingdom. Copies of all documents (i.e. the Key Investor Information Document, the prospectus, any supplements or addenda thereto, the latest annual reports and semi-annual reports and the memorandum of incorporation and the articles of association) are available in the United Kingdom from www.etfsecurities.com.
None of the index providers of the Funds referred to herein nor their licensors make any warranty or representation whatsoever either as to the results obtained from use of the relevant indices and/or the figures at which such indices stand at any particular day or otherwise. None of the index providers shall be liable to any person for any errors or significant delays in the relevant indices nor shall be under any obligation to advise any person of any error or significant delay therein.
