Strong Finish to 2017 by VanEck, For the Month Ending December 31, 2017
Performance Overview
International moats, as represented by the Morningstar® Global ex-US Moat Focus IndexSM ( MGEUMFUN, or ”International Moat Index”), trailed the MSCI All Country World Index ex-USA in December (1.75% vs. 2.24%), but finished with full-year outperformance of greater than 3% (30.36% vs. 27.19%). The U.S.-oriented Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM ( MWMFTR, or ”U.S. Moat Index”) followed a strong November with positive relative performance in December, toping the broad U.S. markets as represented by the S&P 500® Index (1.66% vs. 1.11%). The U.S. Moat Index finished the year ahead by roughly 2% (23.79% vs. 21.83%).
International Moats: Japan Weighs, Australia and Brazil Boost
Together with several firms from Japan, utilities and telecommunications firms struggled in the International Moat Index for the month. The bottom three performing companies in the International Moat Index were Japanese companies. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp (9432 JP, -10.43%), which owns mobile telephone operator NTT DoCoMo, struggled in December after posting quarterly results generally in line with expectations in November. SoftBank Group Corp (9984 JP, -6.58%) also struggled in December. The company has a wide range of international and e-commerce investments in its portfolio, some of which compete directly with the aforementioned Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. On the other side of the coin, financials and consumer discretionary companies contributed strongly to International Moat Index returns and the Index also received a strong boost from companies in Australia, Hong Kong, Canada, and Brazil. The International Moat Index standout was Brazilian aviation company Embraer SA (EMBR3 BZ, +26.46%), following speculation that Boeing was in talks to buy the company. Shares of Embraer SA shot up and approached Morningstar’s fair value estimate of $26 per share at year end.
U.S. Domestic Moats: Consumer Discretionary Shines
Consumer discretionary companies were the primary driver of strong performance for the U.S. Moat Index in December. While Express Scripts Holding Co (ESRX US, +14.51%) was the top performing index constituent in December, firms such as Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW US, +11.48%), Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. (FOXA US, +8.11%), and L Brands Inc. (LB US, +7.40%) helped consumer discretionary lead the way. Tech firm Veeva Systems Inc. (VEEV US, -8.19%) was the worst performing stock in the U.S. Moat Index after issuing 2019 fiscal year guidance below expectations. The firm provides client relationship management services to the pharmaceutical industry and Morningstar lowered its fair value estimate four dollars to $65 on December 6th. The consumer staples and information technology sectors were the two sectors to detract from index performance, but only slightly.
Important Disclosures
This commentary is not intended as a recommendation to buy or to sell any of the named securities. Holdings will vary for the MOAT and MOTI ETFs and their corresponding Indices.
Overall, moat companies, companies with structural competitive advantages, benefited from the election of Donald Trump. “The healthcare and banking sectors in particular breathed a sigh of relief,” said Uwe Eberle, Head of International Business Development and Distribution at VanEck. Pharma giants such as Amgen, McKesson, and AmerisourceBergen struggled with the prospects of potentially higher regulation and price controls under a Clinton administration. They recovered significantly after the election after their stocks had posted unimpressive returns throughout the week before. The banking sector, which also stands to benefit from potentially reduced regulations and higher interest rates under Trump, saw a boost as well, led by Wells Fargo with returns of more than 13 percent in the two days following the election. U.S. Moats Benefit from Election Results.
Losses for Tech Companies
Uncertainty over immigration and trade policy affected the technology sector in particular. Tech companies rely on skilled workers from outside the U.S. and have significant business ties to Mexico and Latin America. Stocks like Amazon.com, Western Union, and Salesforce.com were heavily sold in the immediate aftermath of the election. Outside the technology sectors, Starbucks was among the negatively affected stocks.
The VanEck Vectors Morningstar US Wide Moat UCITS ETF is the first ETF in Europe to provide exposure to U.S. companies with a Morningstar® Economic MoatTM Rating of Wide. The underlying index developed by Morningstar is based on the idea of economic moats, i.e. long-term structural advantages that allow a company to withstand competition. The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index has outperformed the broader U.S. equity market since its inception. Year to date, the index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 12.43%.
(Data as of 15.11.2016)
About VanEck
VanEck offers intelligently designed investment strategies that take advantage of targeted market opportunities. Founded in 1955, VanEck was a pioneer in global investing with a history of placing clients’ interests first in all market environments. The firm continues this tradition by offering active and ETF portfolios in hard assets, emerging markets, fixed income, and other assets classes.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM was created and is maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell or promote the VanEck Vectors Morningstar US Wide Moat UCITS ETF and bears no liability with respect to that ETF. The index provides exposure to companies with a Morningstar Economic Moat Rating of “wide” that are trading at the lowest current market price/fair value ratios. Moat Ratings and fair value estimates are determined by the Morningstar Equity Research Team.
As global financial markets continue to sort through the long-term impact of Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential victory on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, one thing is certain: there were both winners and losers in the immediate aftermath. Among U.S. moat companies, several sectors and individual stocks wavered in the week preceding the election and reversed course in the days that followed. Overall, moat companies that benefited from the election outweighed those that suffered. Election Results Benefit U.S. Moats
Positive Reversal of Fortune on Trump Victory
Throughout the week leading to the election (November 1 to November 8), several stocks within the U.S.-oriented Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM (the “Index”) (MWMFTR, or “the U.S. Moat Index”) posted unimpressive returns. Companies from the healthcare sector such as Allergan plc (AGN), AmerisourceBergen Corp. (ABC), McKesson Corp. (MCK), and Amgen Inc. (AMGN) struggled with the prospects of potentially higher regulation and price controls under a possible Clinton administration. Following Trump’s election, these companies recovered significantly. Banking, which also stands to benefit from potentially reduced regulations and higher interest rates under Trump, received a boost led by Index constituent Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC).
Five Largest Reversals in Pre-Election versus Post-Election Performance
Click to enlarge. Source: Morningstar; FactSet. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended to be a forecast of future events or investment advice.
Tech Companies among those Hurt by Threat to Skilled Foreign Workers
On the flip side, several U.S. Moat Index constituents struggled following the election. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), Western Union Co. (WU), and Salesforce.com (CRM) were among the negatively affected stocks. Immigration policy uncertainty appears to be impacting tech companies who rely on foreign skilled employees or that have significant Mexican and Latin American business ties.
Moat Companies Positioned for the Long Term
Although many of these post-election trends may be short lived, the idea of investing in attractively priced quality companies remains a long-term proven strategy. Year to date through November 15, 2016, the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index has outperformed the S&P 500® Index by 12.43% (21.17% vs. 8.74%). Taking an even longer view, the Index has bested the S&P 500 Index for the five years ended November 15, 2016 (15.99% vs. 14.05% on an annualized basis), according to Morningstar data.
The VanEck Vectors™ Morningstar Wide Moat ETF seek to replicate before fees and expenses, as closely as possible, the price and yield performance of the Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index.
Index performance is not representative of fund performance. For fund performance visit vaneck.com/moat.
The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index consists of U.S. companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages and whose stocks are the most attractively priced, according to Morningstar.
The S&P 500® Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering the leading industries of the U.S. economy.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM was created and is maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wide Moat ETF and bears no liability with respect to the ETF or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index is a service mark of Morningstar, Inc.
This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck, and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
An investment in the VanEck VectorsTM Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) may be subject to risks which include, among others, investing in the health care sector, investing in the consumer discretionary sector, investing in the industrials sector, investing in the information technology sector, investing in the financial services sector, equity securities, market, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, short history of an active market/no guarantee of active trading market, trading Issues, replication management, premium/discount, non-diversified and concentration risk, fluctuations in value due to market and economic conditions or factors relating to specific issuers. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors.
Fund shares are not individually redeemable and will be issued and redeemed at their Net Asset Value (NAV) only through certain authorized broker-dealers in large, specified blocks of shares called ”creation units” and otherwise can be bought and sold only through exchange trading. Creation units are issued and redeemed principally in kind. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market. You will incur brokerage expenses when trading Fund shares in the secondary market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns for actual Fund investments may differ from what is shown because of differences in timing, the amount invested, and fees and expenses.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
Spring Takeover Bids a Boon. Stock selection, a cornerstone of the moat investment philosophy, has driven much of the recent success of the Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM (MWMFTR), which has gained over 15% YTD as of May 31, 2016. Of late, consolidation has been king and we’ve seen increased M&A activity. Spring Takeover Bids a Boon
M&A Activity Can Strengthen Moats
The concept of an economic moat refers to how likely a company is to keep competitors at bay for an extended period of time. Simply put, moat investing comes down to identifying companies that are able to stay one step ahead of the competition. Economic moats are often part of the strategic rationale for M&A transactions and post-acquisition success can be an important factor in moat ratings.
Strategic M&A can be attractive investment themes for moat companies — not only potential takeover targets but possible acquirers as well. Bolstered future return on capital and increased market share have the potential to strengthen these companies’ economic moats and highlights the derived value from their acquisition strategies.
M&A Deals in the Works
M&A in general has been a prevalent theme in MWMFTR this spring. In April, Abbott Laboratories (ABT US) announced its intent to acquire St. Jude Medical, Inc. (STJ US) for $25 million, positioning the two to capture a larger market share position within the cardiovascular device market. The deal is expected to close in the coming fourth quarter. St. Jude was first added to MWMFTR on March 21, 2016. It was the big winner among domestic moat-rated companies for the month of April. (Read more on April’s results in A Star Spangled April for Moats.)
In another announcement, German chemical and pharmaceutical company Bayer AG (BAYN DE), currently the number two crop chemical producer in the world, made an unsolicited takeover offer for Monsanto Company (MON US), the world’s leading seed company. While currently facing a multitude of hurdles, the deal, if completed, would mark the largest-ever German takeover of a foreign company.1 A constituent in MWMFTR since it was added to the index on September 21, 2015, shares of MON soared immediately following reports of the buyout approach.
M&A doesn’t always end in fist bumps and high fives, however. In April, U.S. drug maker Pfizer Inc. (PFE US) terminated its agreement to acquire Botox maker Allergan Plc (AGN US) on the heels of a new tax ruling by the U.S. Department of Treasury targeting its anticipated tax benefits. The announcement sent AGN US’ price falling. However, investors will need to sit tight to see how AGN’s $40.5 billion sale of its generic drug unit to Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TEVA US) shakes out.
St Jude, Monsanto, and Allergan are all holdings of MWMFTR and VanEck Vectors™ Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT®). As of May 31, 2016, they represented 6.51%, 5.75%, and 3.69% of the Fund’s net assets, respectively. Their pre- and post-deal-announcement fair values can be seen in the table below.
Moat Investing provides key insights and performance trends impacting global moat investing based on Morningstar equity research. U.S.-focused MOAT and internationally focused MOTI offer investors global exposure to Morningstar’s moat methodology and valuation principals.
Fair value estimate: The Morningstar analyst’s estimate of what a stock is worth.
The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index consists of 20 U.S. companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages and whose stocks are the most attractively priced, according to Morningstar.
The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM was created and is maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wide Moat ETF and bears no liability with respect to the ETF or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index is a service mark of Morningstar, Inc.
This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck, and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
This commentary is not intended as a recommendation to buy or to sell any of the named securities. Holding will vary for MOAT and its underlying Index.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
To view fund performance current to the most recent month end, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com.
Medan centralbankerna sänker räntorna fortsätter intresset för utdelningar slår nya rekord, vare sig det gäller aktier i de företag som lämnar höga utdelningar eller de börshandlade fonder som investerar i högutdelande aktier. Det gäller emellertid att inte glömma bort att utdelningar är känsliga för räntehöjningar.
Detta skulle innebära att om FED, eller vår egen Riksbank, skulle byta kurs och börja höja räntorna kan både de företag som lämnar höga utdelningar och de börshandlade fonder som investerar i högutdelande aktier eller fastigheter, så kallade REITs, drabbas negativt. Sådana finansiella instrument skulle kunna drabbas hårt, och det skulle sannolikt leda till att investerarna väljer att köpa aktier i företag som har en hög utdelningstillväxt istället för en hög direktavkastning.
Stort utbud
De investerare som söker efter direktavkastning har mycket att välja på. I dag finns det inga börshandlade fonder noterade på NASDAQ OMX Stockholm som fokuserar på utdelning, men i USA finns det betydligt fler alternativ att välja mellan. Det innebär emellertid att placerarna tar på sig en valutarisk, där en lägre dollarkurs gör att värdet på tillgångarna kan komma att falla i värde.
En av de börshandlade fonder som erbjuder placerarna tillgång till kvalitativa utdelningsaktier är till exempel Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEArca: SCHD). Denna ETF äger aktier i 100 företag som väljs ut baserat på starka fundamenta, att de lämnar utdelningar och att företagen har lämnat konsekventa utdelningar under minst tio (10) år i följd, så kallade utdelningsaristokrater. SCHD har i dag en direktavkastning på dryga tre procent.
Var uppmärksam på en alltför hög direktavkastning
Företag som har en alltför hög direktavkastning kan vara företag som maskera sina nödställda böcker, men det kan också vara så att dessa bolag inte klarar av att bibehålla sin utdelning och kan komma att behöva skära ned på denna inom en snar framtid. Följaktligen krävs det att de ETFer som investerar i kvalitativa utdelningsföretag försöker att begränsa effekterna av dessa värdefällor genom att kräva en historia av hållbar tillväxtutdelning.
Väldigt låga förvaltningskostnader
Med en förvaltningskostnad på endast 0,07 procent per år är SCHD en av de allra billigaste ETFerna med fokus på utdelningar, men också en av marknadens billigaste börshandhandlade fonder. Den som dessutom är kund hos det amerikanska mäklarhuset Schwab kan dessutom komma undan ännu billigare eftersom SCHD, precis som alla andra av Schwabs ETFer handlas courtagefritt på företagets ETF OneSource plattform.
På grund av den indexeringsmetod som SCHD har omfattar denna ETF en rad kvalitetsnamn, och 60 procent av företagen har så kallade ekonomiska ”vallgravar”, de är så kallade MOATS, vilket innebär att det har en konkurrensfördel eller dominerande ställning på marknaden gentemot konkurrenterna. Specifikt har dessa företag en stabil intjäning, hög lönsamhet, låg skuldsättning och hög utdelning.
Utdelningstillväxt i all ära, den är bra för att få investerare intresserade av en aktie eller en ETF, men det krävs mer för att kunna upprätthålla denna utdelningstillväxt. SCHD har därför lagt till en del ytterligare urvalsmetoder, till exempel avkastning på eget kapital, kassaflödet i förhållande till skuldkvoten, utdelning och fem års utdelningstillväxt.
