Erosion of Qatar’s dominance in LNG could drive demand responsiveness
The recent Saudi Arabia-led confrontation with Qatar could drive an increase in the use of flexible liquefied natural gas contracts and thus allow demand to be more responsive to price. Erosion of Qatar’s dominance in LNG could drive demand responsiveness.
As we noted in “US natural gas – international demand unlikely to absorb domestic glut”, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is in the midst of change. Qatar is the world’s largest producer of LNG with most LNG transacting in long-term contracts at fixed price. However, the emergence of Australia and the US as large players in the market will lead to growth in flexible contracts. Based on EIA projections, the US is likely rise from being a negligible player (less than 1% of global supply) to the world’s third largest (after Qatar and Australia), with the US LNG market growing six-fold by 2020.
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This development could resemble the evolution we saw in the oil market in the 1970s and 1980s
This development could resemble the evolution we saw in the oil market in the 1970s and 1980s. Until the late 1970s, almost 90% of the world’s crude oil was sold under long-term contracts at prices set by the major oil companies. OPEC produced 67% of the free world’s crude oil, allowing it to dominate the price and quantity of oil sold. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, market-based spot and futures trading gained in importance as production from the non-OPEC countries surpassed OPEC oil production and as non-OPEC producers went to the spot markets to build market share. By the end of 1982, almost half of all internationally-traded oil was traded on exchanges using flexible futures contracts.
Prices driven by local fundamentals
Unlike crude oil, the global natural gas market is fragmented with prices driven by local fundamentals. LNG, which is gas turned into liquid and then shipped before re-gasification at destination, represents a small proportion of the local natural gas market. For example, the price of natural gas in the US is less than half the price of natural gas in Europe or Asia. While the US natural gas futures (Henry Hub) is the most liquid market and is used as main benchmark, prices move in response to domestic fundamentals leaving it a poor hedge for natural gas prices in other countries. In addition, the size of the LNG market is currently too small for LNG to truly impact on natural gas futures prices.
Considering this, the recent Saudi-led confrontation with Qatar can pose a risk to global supplies of LNG. Although shipments from the country have not been affected as yet, we cannot rule out an impact if the impasse intensifies. We believe that it could be a catalyst to quicken the migration away from long-term fixed contracts with Qatar to flexible contracts in countries like US and Australia. With importing countries eager to maintain energy security, they may demand Qatar also alter contracts to be more flexible (especially for new contracts).
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Crude oil ETPs experience largest outflows in six months after OPEC agrees output cut extension. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have agreed to freeze production at current levels for another nine months The Saudi-Arabian led cartel has sought to bolster prices after the price collapse that emerged when its 2014 experiment failed and crippled many OPEC member economies. A deeper cut would be need to shock the market to drive prices higher. With US, Canadian and Brazilian production continuing to grow and global demand remaining soft, global oil inventories will remain elevated. OPEC’s target of bringing down the level of OECD oil inventories to its 5-year average will continuingly be undermined by the growth in US shale oil. As a result, crude prices slid and investors took the opportunity to book profits, with long oil ETPs experiencing the largest withdrawal since early December 2016, totalling US$100mn.
Investors enamoured with technology ETPs sees 11th consecutive week of inflows. The tech sector continues to lead equity global performance, as tech earnings in the US have come in better than expected. The inflows into both cybersecurity and robotics themed ETPs totalled US$34mn, the largest inflows in 11 weeks.
US Dollar buying continues at the expense of the Euro, with 6th consecutive week of inflows. Although the market is fully pricing in a rate hike in the US at the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, the US Dollar continues to weaken. Last week, the US Dollar index (DXY)reached the lowest level since October 2016. Futures positioning has moderated in recent weeks, in line with the price weakness. In contrast, ETP investors have been optimistic, driving inflows into long USD ETPs for the 6th consecutive week. Inflows over that period have totalled US$57mn. At the same time, investors have been cutting positions from short USD ETPs, with withdrawals totalling US$15.3mn. Last week’s outflows were the largest from short USD ETPs since the first week in January 2017. The primary buying of USD came against the Euro which broke above key resistance at 1.12 level. Long Euro ETPS experienced the largest withdrawals in 20 weeks, while short Euro ETPs tallied the sixth consecutive week of inflows.
Industrial metals inflows reach seven year high. Investors have taken the stabilisation in metals prices as a signal to start bargain hunting in the sector. Speculative unwind has begun to ease and with signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy and China’s authorities initiating new infrastructure programs. Broad industrial metals basket received US$42mn, the largest in seven years.
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Oil prices fall as OPEC has no positive surprise up its sleeve
Oil prices fall as OPEC has no positive surprise up its sleeve. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have agreed to freeze production at current levels for another nine months. Current production levels are approximately 1.8mn barrels per day lower than they were in October 2016, if the output figures are to be believed. The market has been led to believe that this would be the likely outcome from the meeting after the major players had already announced that a nine-month extension was palatable. With the market conditioned to expect surprises emerging from the “smoke and mirrors” format of OPEC meetings, the result of the current meeting has been an anti-climax.
The Saudi-Arabian led cartel has sought to bolster prices after the price collapse that emerged when its 2014 experiment failed and crippled many OPEC member economies. Saudi Arabia wants to sell part of its state oil company to boost its financial coffers, which is the chief reason why it wants oil prices to trade above US$50/bbl. Other members have followed and sacrificed production as higher prices have helped turn revenues around. However, revenues are unlikely to reach levels these countries are accustomed to.
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Oil continues to trade in a tight range with the upper bound at US$55/bbl. As we argued in “OPEC’s choices: double down or do nothing”, a deeper cut would be need to shock the market to drive prices higher. With US, Canadian and Brazilian production continuing to grow and global demand remaining soft, global oil inventories will remain elevated. OPEC’s target of bringing down the level of OECD oil inventories to its 5-year average will continuingly be undermined by the growth in US shale oil.
Driven by the price war that OPEC initiated in 2014, US shale oil players are leaner than they have ever been and can make profit at considerably lower prices than in 2014.
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At current prices we expect US production to grow. Rigs are considerably more efficient than they used to be. The US is close to producing record amounts of oil with almost half the number of rigs as there were at the peak in 2014. Persistent and nimble US producers are likely to continue to undermine the efforts of OPEC. In the absence of a deeper cut, we expect prices to continue to grind lower, possibly below US$50/bbl.
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We expect OPEC compliance to its agreement to fade as has historically been the pattern. With Saudi Arabia having the most to lose from a collapse in the deal, we expect other members to free-ride on its efforts to keep a lid a production. As other members question what will happen after the Saudi Aramco IPO, we doubt the notion of ‘solidarity’ is as strong as being portrayed in front of the press. Although Russia, the largest non-OPEC member in the deal, claims to have been cutting more than is needed, it contradicts the data in the OPEC monthly reports.[1] As compliance comes under greater scrutiny, prices are likely to weaken. We continue to believe that oil will range trade between US$40-55/bbl.
[1] In OPEC’s November report, Russia was producing 10.59mb/d in October and in OPEC’s May report, Russia was producing 10.39mb/d in April. That only amounts to a 200k b/d cut, compared to the 300k b/d Russia signed up to for each month.
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Sedan ett par år tillbaka har flera av råvarorna kämpat för att kunna leverera en positiv avkastning. Oftast har de misslyckats. Detta gäller i synnerhet för energiprodukter som olja och naturgas. Investerare. Investerare som har för avsikt att diversifiera sin portfölj med råvaror bör överväga att använda en börshandlad fond som investerar i en råvarukorg istället för en ETC, det vill säga en ETF som endast investerar i en enda underliggande råvara.
PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEArca: DBC)är den största av alla de börshandlade fonder som investerar på råvarumarknaden. Denna ETF gör det möjligt att diversifiera sin portfölj med råvaror. I dagsläget har DBC strax under två miljarder dollar under förvaltning. Denna börshandlade fond speglar utvecklingen av DBIQ Optimal Return Diversified Commodity Index Excess Return.
För investerare som vill investera i råvaruterminer
DBC är utformat för investerare som på ett kostnadseffektivt och bekvämt sätt att investera i råvaruterminer. Indexet är ett reglerbaserat index som består av terminsavtal på 14 av de mest omsatta och viktiga fysiska råvarorna i världen. Oljan spelar en central roll i DBC.
Investerare presenteras nu med de bästa köpmöjligheterna i energiprodukter sedan innan produktionsöverenskommelsen i november bland medlemmarna i Organisationen för oljeproducerande länder (OPEC), skriver PowerShares i en ny analys. Det går vidare att läsa att PowerShares anser att när det gäller råoljeprisethandlar det bara om utbudet. Den globala efterfrågan har visat en konsekvent trend i 25 år.
När känslan är skakig tar det inte mycket för att pressa ut försiktiga investerare från marknaden. Vi har under den senaste tiden sett hur vissa försiktiga marknadsaktörer blivit otåliga med förseningen i neddragningen av amerikanska råoljelagren. De har helt enkelt klivit av från sina innehav.
OPEC skär ned oljeproduktionen, shaleoljeproducenterna ökar sin
Medan OPEC skär ner för att lindra prispress verkar de amerikanska shaleoljeproducenterna hoppas kunna dra nytta av det minskade utbudet som pressar priset mot 50 USD per fat. Bedömningarna är att det är just 50 USD per fat som utgör break even för shaleoljeproducenterna.
Olika oljeexponeringar står för cirka en fjärdedel av DBCs kapital. OPEC-produktionen har minskat under flera månader medan Ryssland, den största tillverkaren utanför OPEC har trimmat produktionen sedan slutet av 2016. Ändå fortsätter oljepriserna att fala, vilket visar att den amerikanska produktionen bidrar till lägre oljepriser.
Energispekulanterna har varit mycket fokuserade på de amerikanska råoljereserverna, och många förlorade tålamod medan marknaderna balanserade i Europa och Asien. Ett fall på cirka fem procent i West Texas Intermediate crude den 4 maj hade alla kännetecken för en kapitulation på en marknad där känslan har blivit skakig säger PowerShares i sin analys.
För den som fruktar att osäkerheten på råvarumarknaden kommer att består finns det ett antal inverterade börshandlade produkter som ger en hedge mot fallande råvarupriser. Till exempel ger DB Commodity Short ETN (NYSEArca: DDP) den omvända positionen på en grupp av diversifierade råvaror. Denna ETN ger en procent i värdeökning då de underliggande tillgångarna faller i värde med en procent. DB Commodity Double Short ETN (NYSEArca: DEE)ger två gånger det omvända läget på en korg med råvaror.
OPEC’s current strategy is not working. Oil prices have given back nearly all their gains since the cartel agreed to cut production in November 2016. We believe the credible options for their next move, to be discussed at their May 25th meeting, will be to either to cut deeper or let the deal collapse. The latter option seems the most likely outcome. OPECs choices, double down or do nothing.
As we argued in our recent outlooks, the efforts of OPEC members with assigned quotas, are being undermined by:
1. the growth in supply from the OPEC members who don’t have quotas 2. non-OPEC members participant to the deal that are not adhering to it 3. the rapid growth in supply from other countries, most notably the US
Today’s release of OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report acknowledges the extent to which supply from the US, Canada and Brazil is set to rise.
We therefore believe that repeating the same strategy for another six months will do little to shore up oil prices. OPEC nations have given up market share and have barely reaped any price gains. Given that consensus expectations are for a simple deal extension (i.e. that is what is currently priced-in), following the status quo is unlikely to be met with a positive price response. We believe that if OPEC is serious about getting the market to balance it will have to cut deeper in order to ‘shock’ the market and drive prices higher. Sacrificing volume requires higher prices.
However, gaining a consensus agreement on a bolder move will be difficult. The smaller and more financially constrained members will be reluctant to give up more volume. Saudi Arabia is vocally supportive of a deal extension. But if Iran insists on being able to increase production further while Saudi Arabia has to bear the brunt of further production cuts, the deal’s flaws will become even more accentuated. We believe that doing nothing and letting the deal collapse will be default option in the event that the cartel is unable to gain support for a deeper cut.
While OPEC surprised on the upside at its November 2016 meeting by coming to an agreement, we believe the May 25th 2017 meeting will surprise on the downside with a lack of agreement. In such event, oil prices could decline close to US$40/bbl (from US$48/bb currently), which we believe is the structural floor for oil prices, set by the breakeven price of US shale oil production.
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
