Etikett: Simona Gambarini

Gold ETPs Attract Inflows as Hawkish FED Prompts Correction

Gold ETPs Attract Inflows as Hawkish FED Prompts Correction

Highlights Gold ETPs Attract Inflows as Hawkish FED Prompts Correction

Gold ETPs Attract Inflows as Hawkish FED Prompts Correction Inflows into gold ETPs reach seven week high as price falls below US$1,200oz.
Long oil ETPs continue to see inflows as low prices attract bargain hunters.
ETFS Nickel (NICK) records US$8.1mn of inflows as investors deem recent sell-off overdone.
ETFS Soybeans (SOYB) sees the biggest inflows in over 2 years as US railroad jams slowed deliveries.

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

 

 

Although the end of the Fed’s bond-buying programme was widely anticipated, commodity prices reacted strongly on the news, with gold falling below the US$1,200oz threshold and silver trading below US$16oz. Unsurprisingly, ETP investors considered the correction as an opportunity to increase their gold holdings, with inflows into gold ETPs reaching a 7-week high. With many commodities trading so close to their marginal cost of production, we believe that prices cannot fall much lower without triggering a supply response.

Inflows into gold ETPs reach seven week high as price falls below US$1,200oz. Long gold ETPs saw US$30mn of inflows last week, bringing the total inflows for the month to US$80mn. A surprisingly hawkish FOMC meeting on Wednesday prompted a correction in the gold price, which fell below the US$1,200 threshold. The Federal Reserve ended its monthly bond purchase program last week, dismissing current market volatility as transitory and focused on an improving labour market. Investors bought on the correction.
Long oil ETPs continue to see inflows as low prices attract bargain hunters. Weak global demand for oil and distillates combined with ample global supply of crude sent both Brent and WTI prices to the lowest since November 2010 for Brent and June 2012 for WTI. While OPEC has historically played a fundamental role in keeping oil prices above US$100, OPEC members entered a price war in October, selling their oil at a discount in order to increase market share in Asia, putting further downward pressure on both oil benchmarks. According to OPEC’s Secretary General, US shale oil producers will be the most hurt by persistently low oil prices while OPEC will be broadly unaffected. While the IEA has indicated that most oil produced is still economic at US$80/barrel, the key to greater support in oil prices lies with OPEC.
ETFS Nickel (NICK) records US$8.1mn of inflows as investors deem recent sell-off overdone. This is the largest inflow since July 2014. Nickel price is currently trading at a 15% discount to its marginal cost of production. While in the short-term companies and mines can continue to produce even if prices are trading below marginal costs, it is not sustainable in the long term. Elevated inventories and fears of a slowdown in China’s demand have weighed on prices recently. However, demand for stainless steel, the largest market for refined nickel, has picked up substantially in 2014 and we expect nickel stockpiles will start to reduce in coming months. At the same time, profit taking prompted US$7mn of outflows from long copper ETPs as the price increased over 4% from the October lows.
ETFS Soybeans (SOYB) sees the biggest inflows in over 2 years as US railroad jams slowed deliveries. 70% of the crop has already been harvested and it is waiting to be delivered but insufficient transport capacity is delaying the process. Soybean prices rose over 3% on the news. While the International Grain Organisation revised its crop expectations for the 2014/2015 season down due to delayed planting in South America, it still anticipates a record crop next year. With grains priced for perfect growing conditions, any small setback in weather in major producing countries or hiccup during the harvesting process could drive a price rally.
Key events to watch this week. This week the focus will once again be on monetary policy, with Bank of England and the European Central Bank holding their monthly meetings this week. While no changes are expected, it will be interesting to gather the BOE and ECB’s assessment of the strength of their economies.

Video Presentation

 

Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Commodities Back In Favour As Recent Correction Deemed Excessive

Commodities Back In Favour As Recent Correction Deemed Excessive

Highlights Commodities Back In Favour As Recent Correction Deemed Excessive

Precious metals back in favour with US$13mn of inflows
Long WTI crude oil ETPs record largest inflows since April 2014 as price drops below $80 for the first time since June 2012
Profit taking drives US$11mn of outflows from long coffee ETPs
Negative sentiment towards copper remains despite expected deficit in 2014

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

 

 

While most commodity prices continued to lose ground last week, investors started to realise that prices cannot fall much further, prompting inflows into precious metals, WTI crude and agriculture. With most commodities trading at or below their marginal cost of production, we expect the recent downward correction in commodity prices to be short-lived and believe commodities are attractively valued at current levels.

Precious metals back in favour with US$13mn of inflows. With the exception of palladium, all precious metals received inflows last week reversing the negative trend seen over the past few weeks. With platinum trading 10% below its marginal cost of production and gold and silver fast approaching their breakeven levels, we believe those commodities are attractively valued. Increasing uncertainty in currency and equity markets should be beneficial to gold, while the recent pick-up in auto sales will continue to provide support to Platinum Group Metals (PGMs). While silver stocks remain elevated, we expect industrial demand to rise and buttress price action over the next few months as the recovery in the US and China gains momentum.
Long WTI crude oil ETPs record largest inflows since April 2014 as price drops below $80 for the first time since June 2012. Inflows totalled over US$20mn last week. While sentiment in the crude oil markets is negative at the moment, the US Energy Information Agency forecasts a production deficit for the remainder of 2014, which we believe is not factored in the price. We believe that if demand remains this weak OPEC will eventually cut production, helping to stabilise prices.
Profit taking drives US$11mn of outflows from long coffee ETPs. Arabica coffee has been the best performing commodity this year, with a 96% gain over the period. A weak harvest in Central America has recently exacerbated supply concerns. The International Coffee Organisation envisages only a slight recovery in the 2014/2015 season as a devastating leaf rust disease is likely to prompt switches to other crops, in turn reducing production. At the same time, agricultural basket ETPs recorded another week of strong inflows as investors deem the recent downward correction excessive. With the entire grains sector trading below total cost of production, a rebound is overdue.
Negative sentiment towards copper remains despite expected deficit in 2014. ETFS Daily Short Copper (SCOP) saw US$2.5m of inflows last week as the price dropped 2.6%. However, we believe the current price weakness will be short-lived as investors return to focus on fundamentals. The copper market will likely be in a deficit for the 5th consecutive year in 2014, according to the most recent estimates released by the International Copper Study Group. According to the revised figures, this year will see a supply deficit to the tune of 307,000 tons vs a previously expected supply surplus of 405,000 tons, on lower production and stronger demand.
Key events to watch this week. A number of Chinese economic statistics are coming out this week and will help investors gauge the strength of the economy as the PBOC introduces more stimulus. China’s Q3 GDP data will be watched closely for any sign of slowdown beyond target. Bank of England minutes will also be looked at closely as last month two policymakers voted for a rate hike, with seven voting for the status quo. A less hawkish Board meeting will likely see the downtrend for Sterling remain in place

Video Presentation

 

Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Commodities Looking Increasingly Attractive At Current Levels

Commodities Looking Increasingly Attractive At Current Levels

Commodity ETP Weekly Commodities Looking Increasingly Attractive At Current Levels

Long gold and silver ETPs see US$88mn and US$46mn of outflows on negative sentiment.
Nickel bucks the trend as price drops to a six-month low.
Profit taking drives US$7mn of outflows from long coffee ETPs.

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

 

Negative sentiment towards commodities prevailed last week, prompting some investors to cut their losses. While the striking improvement in the US economy and labour market has prompted the Fed to reduce stimulus and the market to consider an earlier than originally foreseen rate hike, a stronger US economy should benefit cyclical assets. With most commodities trading at multi-year lows and investors mostly short-positioned, we believe most commodities are looking increasingly attractive at current levels.

Long gold and silver ETPs see US$88mn and US$46mn of outflows on negative sentiment. US non-farm payrolls surprised the market on the upside last week, with 248k new jobs added. While the striking improvement in the US economy and labour market has prompted the Fed to reduce stimulus and the market to consider an earlier than originally foreseen rate hike, a stronger US economy should benefit silver. Over 50% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, with China and the US accounting for over 40% of fabrication demand. We believe silver is looking increasingly attractive at current levels. With the US policy finally normalising albeit alongside the better economic outlook, silver price is also expected to pick up momentum. PGMs (“Platinum Group Metals”) also saw outflows last week, as the sharp drop in price prompted investors to cut losses in their portfolio. However, we believe the current price weakness to be temporary as investors will return to focus on the positive fundamentals. Large deficits are already expected in both markets this year and the recent pick up in global auto sales is likely to exacerbate the situation further. With platinum marginal cost of production close to US$1,400oz (11% above current prices) and prices close to or below pre-strike levels, we see value in both metals.

Nickel bucks the trend as price drops to a six-month low. ETFS Nickel (NICK) received US$4.5mn of inflows last week, bucking the negative trend in industrial metals, as investors see the recent price correction as a buying opportunity. While LME stocks have increased by 37% since the beginning of the year, Indonesia, the biggest producer, is sticking to an ore export ban that has drastically reduced the expected surplus to 10,900 tons from 78,100 tons last year. Meanwhile, ETFS Aluminium (ALUM) and ETFS Copper (COPA) suffered US$130mn of combined outflows as negative sentiment towards industrial metals persisted. Although China’s official manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 51.1 in September, fears of a slowdown in the economy have weighed on metals lately. With most commodities now trading at multi-year lows, we believe it is a good time to increase the exposure to this asset class.

Profit taking drives US$7mn of outflows from long coffee ETPs. Prices have been rising on the back of fears that continued dry weather in Brazil, the biggest producer, might negatively impact next year crop. Brazil’s worst drought in decades saw Arabica coffee prices soaring 88% since the beginning of the year.

Key events to watch this week. The release of the Fed minutes and Bank of England rate decision will be the centre of attention this week as the market judges the timing of the first rate hike in both countries. With US Non-Farm Payrolls surprising the market on the upside last week and the US economy continuing to strengthen, the Fed is likely to tighten earlier than originally anticipated.

Video Presentation

 

Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

China Growth Concerns and Strong Dollar Hit Commodities

China Growth Concerns and Strong Dollar Hit Commodities

China Growth Concerns and Strong Dollar Hit Commodities Commodity ETP Weekly

Highlights

  • Diminishing global risks and US Dollar strength weigh on precious metals.
    Oil ETPs see 10th week of inflows as investors view current price levels attractive.
    Wheat ETPs record 18th consecutive week of inflows as price falls to 4-year low.

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Concerns about China’s growth outlook, stagnation in Europe and easing geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region weighed on commodity performance and drove outflows from commodity ETPs last week. Precious metals saw the largest outflows in over a year, with silver and both long and short gold ETPs seeing outflows. The trades are not all one way, however, with the price correction attracting bargain hunters into oil and wheat. Most of the factors that have hit commodity prices over the past few weeks are temporary, and present interesting opportunities for medium to long-term investors in our view. As China eases to boost growth, the US economy recovers, and years of gradually tightening capacity starts to push up inflation, we believe commodity prices – particularly those most tightly linked to the industrial cycle – should recover from current beaten down levels.

Diminishing global risks and US Dollar strength weigh on precious metals. Precious metals saw US$263mn of outflows last week, with gold (both long and short) and silver ETPs seeing the largest outflows. Disappointing economic data from China and Europe weakened demand for the industrial precious metals, with US$17mn flowing out of palladium ETPs. In our view, the price declines are excessive based on our fundamental outlook, with silver, platinum and palladium likely to benefit most if China and US growth continue to recover as we expect. Gold closed just above our estimated all-in cost of production and the widely watched support level near US$1,200/oz. While the strengthening US dollar has weighed on gold in US dollar terms, it has fared much better in Euro terms. We view the current gold price as a very attractive entry point for longer-term investors.

Oil ETPs see 10th week of inflows as investors view current price levels attractive. Oil ETPs saw the 10th consecutive week of inflows last week, bringing total inflows over the period to US$192mn, as investors view current price levels as an attractive entry point. While the International Energy Agency revised down its forecast on global oil demand for 2014 and 2015, demand is still expected to strengthen in Q3/Q4 2014 and into 2015. With OPEC expected to announce production cuts for 2015 if demand and prices remain depressed, the price of Brent and WTI can potentially rebound to US$110/bbl and US$105/bbl respectively over the next few months in our view.

Wheat ETPs record 18th consecutive week of inflows as price falls to 4-year low. The USDA recently announced that they expect production to climb to a record of 720mn metric tons in 2014. However, investors have slowly been building positions in wheat, on expectations optimistic forecasts will not be met. With wheat priced for perfect growing conditions, any small setback in weather in major producing countries or an escalation in trade restrictions could drive a price rally. Meanwhile, ETFS Sugar (SUGA) recorded US$2.2mn of inflows last week, as the price dropped to a 5-year low on expectations production will outpace demand this year.

Key events to watch this week. A relatively light week in terms of economic releases. Markit manufacturing PMIs for China, the US, and the Eurozone will likely be the focus as investors assess the pace of the global recovery after a few disappointing releases. Investors will also be watching for any possible new easing initiatives from China’s economy and policy officials.

Video Presentation

Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

 

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Oil and Gold ETPs Remain in Focus Despite Easing Geopolitical Tensions

Oil and Gold ETPs Remain in Focus Despite Easing Geopolitical Tensions

ETF Securities – Oil and Gold ETPs Remain in Focus Despite Easing Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical risks remained a focus for investors last week, with gold and oil ETPs seeing the 8th consecutive week of inflows. Russia and Ukraine progressed towards the termination of the conflict by agreeing on a permanent ceasefire, but fighting resumed on Sunday, threatening to end the truce. While the geopolitical situation appears to be improving, demand for defensive assets is likely to remain strong as uncertainty surrounding the relationship between Ukraine and Russia lingers. Meanwhile, the ECB surprised the market by cutting interest rates by 10bps and announcing a programme of purchasing asset backed securities last week, in an attempt to reinvigorate economic activity.

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

 

Highlights

Oil and gold ETPs continue to see inflows despite easing geopolitical tensions.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL) sees the highest inflows since June as price drops to US$19oz.

Profit taking drives US$18.1mn of outflows from ETFS Aluminium (ALUM)

Oil and gold ETPs continue to see inflows despite easing geopolitical tensions. While it appears the easing in geopolitical tension surrounding the Russia/Ukraine standoff has weighed on precious metal and oil prices, investors continued to build hedges into their portfolios, with US$21.6mn added to long gold and oil ETPs last week. Gold ETPs recorded their 8th consecutive weekly inflows, totalling US$3.3mn last week. While the geopolitical situation appears to be improving, demand for defensive assets is likely to remain strong as uncertainty surrounding the relationship between Ukraine and Russia lingers. Moreover, we believe the continued recovery of US and China economies will also support demand for oil during the second half of 2014 with OPEC likely to reduce supply if demand and prices remain depressed. With speculative net long positions in oil futures likely to recover in the near term, we view current oil price levels as a good entry point and target Brent and WTI at US$110/bbl and US$105/bbl respectively.

ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL) sees the highest inflows since June as price drops to US$19oz. Inflows into LSIL totalled US$6.9mn last week. The silver price has been trending lower for the past 7 weeks and it is now getting close to attractive levels, in our opinion. While inventories remain elevated, signalling lacklustre industrial demand, silver price is trading closer to its marginal cost of production that currently stands at US$15oz. The Silver Institute expects demand for the metal to grow at around 5% per annum over the next two years thanks to a sharp turnaround in the global photovoltaic industry, led by China. In the medium term we expect the trend of destocking and price appreciation to resume as the global recovery gains pace.

Profit taking drives US$18.1mn of outflows from ETFS Aluminium (ALUM). Aluminium price is up 19% since the beginning of the year as production cuts have substantially improved the fundamentals of a market which has been plagued by oversupply for years. At the same time, copper ETPs saw US$68mn of outflows last week. Copper has lagged other industrial metals like aluminium, nickel and zinc this year, on aggressive production expectations and fears of a slowdown in China. However, we believe fears of copper oversupply are overblown and that copper remains attractive at current price levels given the underlying fundamentals.

Key events to watch this week. This week is relatively light in terms of economic releases, with industrial production figures for the UK, Japan, the Eurozone and India dominating the news flow. China’s new yuan loans, CPI and exports will also be monitored as investors try to assess the effectiveness of government policies on the real economy

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Video Presentation
Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
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