Nästan två tredjedelar (63 procent) av alla större kinesiska ETF-investerare planerar att öka sina ETF-investeringar 2019. Detta enligt Brown Brothers Harriman & Cos (BBH) andra årliga undersökning av kinesiska ETF-investerare.
När man tittar enbart på fastlands-Kina än hela Kina stiger siffran till 77 procent jämfört med 43 procent i BBHs 2018-undersökning.
Undersökningen har gjorts med ett urval av större global ETF-investerare i en undersökning som mätte förväntningarna och preferensen hos 300 institutionella investerare, finansiella rådgivare och fondförvaltare från USA, Europa och Kina. Några 100 respondenter representerade Kina, inklusive FastlandsKina, Hong Kong och Taiwan. Undersökningen ger insikt om nuvarande och framtida användning av ETF på Kinas snabbväxande och utvecklande marknader.
Visar de unika investerarnas preferenser
”Dessa resultat lyfter fram de unika investerarnas preferenser för ETF-investeringar 2019. Det visar olika stadier av ETF-användningen över hela Kina. ETFs blir en allt viktigare del av institutionella investerares portföljer i hela regionen. säger Chris Pigott, Senior Vice President, BBH Hong Kong. ”Ser fram emot, regelutveckling och förbättrad marknadsinfrastruktur för ETF är fokusområden som kommer att ge grunden för att stödja den förväntade tillväxten.”
Invescois launching an innovative ETF (exchange traded fund) designed to target companies with potential to generate real earnings from blockchain technology. The Invesco Elwood Global Blockchain UCITS ETF has been developed in partnership with Elwood Asset Management (“Elwood”), an investment firm specialising in providing institutional investors with exposure to digital assets and blockchain technology.
Bin Ren, CEO of Elwood, explains, “Blockchain has been around for a decade, but many people still see it just as the technology behind cryptocurrencies. The true potential, however, may extend far beyond that.
We are beginning to see the technology being used by financial services companies in particular, but we expect greater application of blockchain technology across a wide range of industries. We believe the potential for blockchain to change the global economy is greatly underappreciated in today’s market, much like the internet was in the beginning, when most people couldn’t see past its usefulness for email.”
Blockchain is a ledger
A blockchain is a ledger that enables the transfer of assets to create a transparent, unalterable, traceable and permanent record of all transactions involving those particular assets. Cryptocurrencies were the first assets to use the blockchain technology, but assets can also be physical, or they could be medical records, legal contracts or any other information that flows between multiple parties.
Chris Mellor, Head of EMEA ETF Equity Product Management at Invesco, said, “The potential for blockchain to drive real earnings is huge, but it is often hidden within companies involved in other areas. This ETF offers investors access to companies with real earnings now, but with the added potential of blockchain-related earnings not reflected in their share prices.”
The ETF aims to deliver the performance of the Elwood Blockchain Global Equity Index by physically investing in the index constituents. The index offers exposure to global companies in developed and emerging markets that participate or have the potential to participate in the blockchain ecosystem. It is designed to evolve with the potential growth of blockchain technology.
‘Developing’ or ‘potential’ phase
Kevin Beardsley, Head of Business Development at Elwood, commented, “The majority of the index is currently allocated to companies where the value attributable specifically to blockchain technology is either in the ‘developing’ or ‘potential’ phase. These are companies with assets that are well-positioned to capitalize on the emerging opportunities for blockchain. Over time, however, we would expect the balance to shift naturally to companies with more significant direct exposure to blockchain-related earnings as the technology becomes more ubiquitous.”
In terms of the largest sector allocations, the index currently has 46% in information technology, 23% in financials, 9% in communication services and 8% in both the materials and consumer discretionary sectors. The three largest geographical allocations are to the US (39%), Japan (29%) and Taiwan(12%).
Calculated by Solactive AG
The index is calculated for Elwood Asset Management by Solactive AG, a globally recognised index provider with expertise in tailor-made indices. The index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly.
The Invesco Elwood Global Blockchain UCITS ETF is the latest example of Invesco’s expertise in identifying new and interesting segments of the market and creating funds that enable investors to access those opportunities efficiently. Invesco launched the first ETFs in Europe that provided targeted exposure to the financial technology and biotechnology sectors, and the firm also offers a full range of US and European sector ETFs.
Investerare som letar efter sätt att betona flera investeringsfaktorer med tillväxtmarknadsaktier har flera börshandlade fonder att välja på. Att fokusera på fundamenta med tillväxtmarknads-ETFer är ett bra sätt att minska risken. En av de mest intressanta medlemmarna i gruppen emerging markets är Deutsche X-trackers FTSE Emerging Comprehensive Factor ETF (NYSEArca: DEMG).
DEMG spårar FTSE Emerging Comprehensive Factor Index, som är utformat för att ge en kärnexponering mot tillväxtmarknadsaktier baserat på fem faktorer – Kvalitet, Värde, Momentum, Låg Volatilitet och Storlek, enligt Deutsche Asset Management.
Aktier på tillväxtmarknaderna handlas fortfarande med rabatter i förhållande till sina västerländska riktmärken, men användningen av kvalitetsfaktorn i utvecklingsländerna kan inte underskattas. Historiskt sett, när tillväxtmarknaderna minskar, är det lägre kvalitetsnamn som driver dessa nedgångar. DEMGs betoning på kvalitet kan hjälpa investerare att fånga marknadernas uppsida och potentiellt begränsa nackdelen.
Enskilda aktier kan uppvisa flera olika funktioner
Med de olika faktorerna där ute, som kan definiera aktier över olika parametrar, kan enskilda aktier uppvisa flera funktioner. Följaktligen kan investerare få det bästa av fler världarna och få exponering för två eller flera faktorer för priset på en investering.
Att värdera högkvalitativt värde är särskilt viktigt när tjurmarknaderna går in i sina slutfaser, som vissa marknadsobservatörer tror att den nuvarande tjurmarknaden gör. I de tidiga stadierna av tjurmarknader ser mindre kvalitetiva företag sina aktier rusa högt. Emellertid, som tjuren mognar, visar investerare ofta en preferens för aktier med högre kvalitet med mer övertygande värderingar.
Tillväxtmarknaderna åtnjuter förbättrade fundamenta tack vare att företagens resultat förbättras när den ekonomiska tillväxten återhämtar sig och stärker valutorna mot amerikanska dollar på grund av förbättrade ekonomiska utsikter. Investerare skall inte bara fokusera på den svaga dollarn eller förmodligen tvingande värderingar på tillväxtmarknader.
Enligt en nyligen genomförd Bloomberg-undersökning pekade investerare på selektiva tillväxtmarknadsmöjligheter, till exempel Mexikooch Brasilien, som var bland de mest gynnade tillväxtmarknadsinvesteringarna.
DEMG äger 808 aktier, varav 19 procent är kinesiska företag. Taiwanoch Sydafrikasvarar kombinerat för över 28 procent av den börshandlade fondens vikt.
Emerging Markets Shake Off Brexit. Emerging markets continued to gather momentum and flows following the June Brexit vote and, in the third quarter, outperformed most global indices including the S&P 500® Index. Large-caps outpaced small-caps, again extending the performance gap for the year. Growth stocks staged a modest comeback over value stocks.
After a couple of quarters of weakness, China was among the best performing countries in the third quarter, accompanied by Brazil (a familiar outperformer this year) and Hungary. India also advanced. Turkey, on the other hand, declined substantially in 3Q as a result of the power grab attempt by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the unsuccessful coup. Technology stocks pushed higher during the quarter to become the third best performing sector for the year following energy and materials. Emerging markets utilities stocks were the worst performers.
3Q’16 Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Review and Positioning
Stock selection added alpha in 3Q, while asset allocation detracted from the strategy’s performance. On a sector level, stock selection in the telecommunications and consumer sectors led the way while stock selection and under allocation to the information technology sector hurt relative performance. On a country level, stock selection in Mexico, Taiwan, and India contributed most to relative performance while stock selection in South Korea, China, and Jordan detracted from relative performance. The strategy’s weighting in small-caps detracted from performance most during the third quarter, while selections in large- and mid-caps aided performance.
3Q Performance Contributors
Our top five contributor companies in 3Q included long-term portfolio position Chinese internet company Tencent Holdings1 and Chinese e-commerce company JD.com,2 both of which rose during the quarter on the back of good earnings results.
India’s Yes Bank Ltd.,3 a high-quality, private sector bank benefited from strong loan and deposit growth, outpaced its peers, while at the same time maintaining a steady non-performing loans level. CP All,4 which operates close to 9,000 corporate, franchise, and sub-area license stores around Thailand reported strong second quarter results, resulting in earnings estimate upgrades.
Finally, Taiwan Semiconductor,5 the undisputed global leader in integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing, benefited from robust sales growth, and a strong 2017 demand outlook.
3Q Performance Detractors
The strategy’s bottom-five performing companies in 3Q included Hikma,6 a London-listed pharmaceutical company with a mix of branded and non-branded generics, and in-licensed drugs. Hikma had a difficult quarter in stock performance terms, reversing a strong second quarter. The proximate cause was a downgrade to company guidance, specifically related to delayed product approvals, which lead most analysts to downgrade earnings for this year, and conservatively, also for 2017.
Robinson Retail,7 a Philippines-based retailer with a variety of retail formats, also reversed relatively strong second quarter performance. In part this was due to a diminished enthusiasm for Philippines stocks generally, following the election of its new president. Although operations for the company are robust, there has been some frustration at the pace of deployment of capital, and concern about strong competition, particularly in Metro Manila.
Techtronic,8 a China-based producer of power tools that are sold mainly in the U.S. and Western Europe, declined due to weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue growth, and higher-than-expected promotional costs on new products, which depressed margins.
Credicorp,9 the leading bank in Peru, pared back gains from earlier in the year after it reported weaker-than-expected loan growth in the second quarter driven by economic uncertainty caused by Peru’s presidential election. Hence, loan growth for the full year is now expected to be lower than the market originally expected.
Eva Precision10 rounds out the performance detractors, and the strategy no longer holds this position. Hopeful signs of better plastic molding orders did not actually translate into orders, leading to worse-than-expected revenue and poor gross margins.
Emerging Markets Challenged by Brexit and “Populist Politics”
Global markets have seen some significant challenges, including record low and negative bond yields and concern about the limits of quantitative easing. Markets have been challenged by Brexit, and concerns about the rise of “populist politics” – to name a few issues. Emerging markets specifically have seen some challenges, including political change in Brazil and an attempted coup in Turkey. Notwithstanding these risks, the summer was actually a period of restrained market volatility, which surprised many market participants.
We Believe that China Should Remain Stable
Many factors combined to create the stronger relative performance from emerging markets during the quarter, and so far this year, compared to global indices. First, the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar appears to have faded as market expectation of a U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) rate hike has been pushed back until the end of the year and possibly next year. Second, despite the febrile headline grabbing comments of market pundits, China has not had any kind of “Minsky moment” (a collapse in asset prices following the exhaustion of credit expansion), whether related to capital outflows or leverage. Although we certainly concede that there are some significant imbalances in China’s economy, we believe that the extra “stabilizers” available to authorities will be used to attempt to achieve a reasonably stable outcome over the medium term. Third, the supply and demand equation for commodities looks more balanced. Fourth, earnings are likely to be much less disappointing this year, partly because expectations have been reset to lower levels, and partly because corporates are gradually acclimatizing to a slower growth world and generating more efficiencies, rather than focusing predominantly on top-line growth.
Reform efforts have been uneven in emerging markets, but we are encouraged by the long-term impact of the passage of the GST (goods and services tax) in India. In China, some reform efforts are often opaque and sometimes appear to represent “two steps forward then one back”. The outcome of tax amnesties in India and Indonesia appears to have been better than expected, and, finally, infrastructure projects seem to be developing greater impetus in a number of countries, for example, the Philippines.
Emerging Markets Have Shown Considerable Relative Strength in 2016
We remain constructive on the continuing outperformance of emerging markets in a global context. After an extended period in the wilderness, emerging markets assets have shown considerable relative strength so far this year. We feel that there is reasonable evidence for that outperformance to continue for the asset class as a whole. Broadly speaking, a stable U.S. dollar, better commodities’ prices, a more resilient earnings profile, and light positioning in the asset class ought to combine to increase the relative attractiveness of emerging markets.
One facet of the uptick in interest is that substantially all inflows into the asset class this year have come through passive fund offerings. While appreciating the convenience that ETFs offer, we caution that allocation of capital through market capitalization can be particularly pernicious in emerging markets.
We make this comment because, given the economic history of many emerging markets economies, there are many very large scale state-owned companies in the emerging markets universe. The prominence of these companies we feel comes less from superior competence than from historically state-sponsored systemic advantage which is unlikely to be sustained in the long run. In addition, we believe many of these large companies are essentially driven by global cyclical factors such as energy and materials. We will continue to implement our philosophy of structural growth at a reasonable price. We are not style agnostic, drifting into whatever appears to be working at any given time. We are style specific and we continue to find that there are many areas of superior, sustained growth that are essentially non-cyclical in nature and will likely provide reliable opportunities for well-managed companies to exploit.
While there may be some countries where economic growth has stabilized or even picked up, the evidence for a sustained, strong improvement in global GDP appears limited at best. In a growth-challenged world, our philosophy of focusing on investment opportunities where strong, innovative management teams are able to capitalize on dynamic change and extract real value, ought to be rewarded over the medium term, despite the vagaries of commodity pricing and ETF flows.
Valuations for emerging markets equities and currencies are generally constructive, but not compellingly cheap. Expectations for earnings are much more realistic, and positioning in the asset class is cautious. Delayed expectations of further Fed tightening have also been positive for the asset class. Finally, it is perhaps hard to construct a case for alternative geographies and asset classes; arguably, the U.S. equity market looks overvalued, Japan is struggling with a strong currency, and Europe faces significant questions and uncertainties surrounding its political and economic future.
Consequently, we approach the remainder of this year, and the following years, with cautious optimism for the asset class. Much more importantly, we remain unabashedly enthusiastic about the companies that we actually own in emerging markets. As most investors know, we have a high active share and a healthy skepticism that the large emerging markets companies necessarily represent some of the best investable dynamics in emerging markets.
1 Tencent Holdings represented 3.5% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
2 JD.com represented 2.8% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
3 Yes Bank Ltd. represented 3.0% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
4 CP All represented 2.2% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
5 Taiwan Semiconductor represented 2.8% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
6 Hikma represented 0.7% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
7 Robinson Retail represented 1.5% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
8 Techtronic represented 1.4% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
9 Credicorp represented 2.2% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
10 Eva Precision represented 0.0% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
The S&P 500® Index (S&P 500) consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial, and transportation sectors. This Index is unmanaged and does include the reinvestment of all dividends, but does not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the strategy. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the strategy’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Portfolio Manager for the Emerging Markets Equity strategy
Oversees the Emerging Markets Equity team; responsible for company research, stock selection, and portfolio construction
Investment Management Team member since 1998
Prior to joining VanEck, served on the team sub-advising VanEck’s emerging markets VIP insurance fund at Peregrine Asset Management (Hong Kong)
Previously held regional strategy and regional sales positions at Peregrine Brokerage (Hong Kong)
Formerly a portfolio manager specializing in Asian equity markets at Murray Johnstone (Glasgow)
Member of the Association of Investment Management and Research (AIMR); member of the CFA Institute
Media appearances include CNBC, Bloomberg, and NPR; quoted in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s, among others
Bachelor of Law with Honors, University of Edinburgh, Scotland
This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speakers and are current as of the posting date. Videos and commentaries are general in nature and should not be construed as investment advice. Opinions are subject to change with market conditions. All performance information is historical and is not a guarantee of future results.
Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers investment portfolios that invest in the asset class(es) mentioned in this commentary. The Emerging Markets Equity strategy is subject to the risks associated with its investments in emerging markets securities, which tend to be more volatile and less liquid than securities traded in developed countries. The Emerging Markets Equity strategy’s investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, including the takeover of property without adequate compensation or imposition of prohibitive taxation. The Emerging Markets Equity strategy is subject to risks associated with investments in derivatives, illiquid securities, and small or mid-cap companies. The Emerging Markets Equity strategy is also subject to inflation risk, market risk, non-diversification risk, and leverage risk. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the investment company carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information. Please read them carefully before investing.
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ETF för sociala medier trendar. Det har varit ett par intensiva veckor för dem som investerar i sociala medier, och då också den börshandlade fond som heter Global X Social Media Index ETF (NasdaqGM: SOCL), som investerar i denna typ av företag. Det är en ETF för sociala medier trendar.
Först ut med sin rapport var Twitter(NasdaqGS: TWTR). Den stora frågan var om bolaget kunde fortsätta öka sin användarbas. Framtida tillväxt och annonsintäkter var de stora frågorna som investerarna hade. Rapporten togs emellertid inte emot väl och Twitter handlas just nu på all-time-low eftersom bolaget inte uppnådde sina prognoser.
Facebook (NasdaqGS: FB) gjorde vad bolaget brukar, nämligen både levererade och överträffade prognoserna. 57 cent per aktie i resultat var långt över prognosen på 44 cent per aktie. Samma sak gäller omsättningen, den kom in på 5 382 miljoner, medan prognosen låg på 5 234 MUSD.
LinkedIns intäkter ökade med 35 procent jämfört med förra året och steg till 860 MUSD, en bit ver prognosen på 828 MUSD vilket gav ett resultat per aktie om 74 cent, att jämföra med de 57 cent per aktie som redovisades förra året.
LinkedIns ledning tror på en fortsatt uppgång, och spår intäkter om 890 MUSD under det andra kvartalet 2016. Det är framförallt Kina som har bidragit med nya användare till LinkedIn. En ökad tillväxt har varit en prioritet i Kina säger LinkedIn, men nu skall bolaget investera kraftigt för att engagera dessa användare.
Investerare kan placera i sociala medier genom en ETF, den breda Global X Social Media Index ETF (NasdaqGM: SOCL), som spårar Solactive Social Media Total Return Index. SOCLs portfölj innehåller Facebook (12,4 procent), LinkedIn (6,6 procent), Twitter (2,9 procent) och Pandora Media (2,4 procent). Denna ETF blir således en vinnare när sociala medier trendar på börsen.
Geografiskt har SOCL en fördelning på Kina (30 procent), Japan (12,8 procent), Ryssland (10,2 procent), Taiwan(1,3 procent) och Tyskland (0,8 procent). Övriga stora innehav, utöver de ovan nämnda är till exempel Tencent Holdings 12,1 %, Yandex 6,9 % och Mail.Ru Group 4,7%.