Etikett: jpy

Near-Term Risk of USD Sell-Off on FOMC

ETF Securities Logo Near-Term Risk of USD Sell-Off on FOMCNear-Term Risk of USD Sell-Off on FOMC

Near-Term Risk of USD Sell-Off on FOMC Tonight’s FOMC meeting could provide a short-term opportunity to short the USD against major G10 currencies (EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD). However, we remain structurally bullish on the USD in the medium term.

The risk for USD could come via two avenues: the external environment affecting domestic growth and/or inflationary expectations. Either could see the recent USD strength unwind.

The FOMC is likely to continue to highlight the improvement in the domestic economy. However the Fed has a dual mandate and either could prompt a downside move in USD.

If either are highlighted, the market is likely to push back expectations for a rate hike further into Q3/Q4. At the moment, expectations are for a rate hike in September.

The FOMC has already emphasised the gradual nature of any future tightening cycle and if it stresses a slowing growth or a softer jobs outlook due to problems abroad, it is likely to be reflected in more cautious language about the upcoming tightening cycle. A potential negative feedback loop from risks to growth in the rest of the world could come from many areas: increasingly divergent political situation in the Eurozone alongside moribund growth in the periphery and Japan, geopolitical risks or the impact of a stronger USD on corporate earnings.

The inflationary environment has been relatively benign despite improving economic activity. The FOMC previously noted the impact of lower oil prices on inflation would be transitory, so any indication that there could be longer lasting effects would see rate hike expectations unwound. Indeed oil prices were on of the reasons the Bank of Canada surprised the market by cutting rates. Meanwhile wage growth remains soft and house price growth has moderated recently. As a result, any indication that inflation may not return to target as quickly as expected could also postpone a rate hike from the Fed.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness.

Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this communication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This communication is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this communication nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

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Japan pumpar likviditet in på börsen

Japan pumpar likviditet in på börsen

Japan pumpar likviditet in på börsen Den japanska regeringen pumpar in en massiv likviditet på börserna genom sin pågående kvantitativa lättnadspolitik. Som ett resultat av detta kollapsar den japanska yenen och aktiemarknaden i Japan skjuter i höjden. Den nuvarande politiken kan komma att hålla igång till långt in på 2015, eventuellt ännu längre men investerare bör vara försiktiga och noga se över de risker och möjliga utfall som detta för med sig eftersom Japan redan har två förlorade decennium i ryggen. Frågan är om historien kommer att upprepa sig denna gång när Japan pumpar likviditet in på börsen.

 

Det går aldrig att pricka en botten

En av de första saker som varje investerare behöver lära sig/få höra/läser/förstå är att du inte kan tajma marknaden perfekt. Det finns två stycken börshandlade fonder som replikerar utvecklingen av den japanska aktiemarknaden som vi följer, dels WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSEARCA: DJX), dels iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: EWJ). Dessa två ETFer följer båda utvecklingen av den japanska aktiemarknaden, men de är i övrigt väldigt olika, så pass olika som två börshandlade fonder som replikerar samma aktiemarknad kan vara. Nedan förklarar vi skillnaderna mellan dessa två börshandlade fonder.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF

Två extremt starka börsår i Japan

Under de senaste två åren har Nikkei 225 (^N225 or NI225) stigit med 87 procent, från cirka 9 000 till dagens nivå på cirka 17 000, mätt i japanska yen (JPY). WisdomTree med sin DJX har emellertid utvecklats bättre än både Nikkei 225 och EWJ under hela denna perioden.

När vi tittar på olika japanska relaterade investeringsinstrument kan vi konstatera att under de senaste två åren har alla investeringar som inneburit en lång exponering mot den japanska aktiemarknaden stigit kraftigt, men de som har kombinerats med en hedge mot den japanska yenen har utvecklats bättre än de icke-hedgade.

Det är här som vi ser den stora skillnaden mellan DXJ och EWJ, DXJ är nämligen kombinerad med en valutahedge, något som EWJ inte är. EWJ har traditionellt sett varit det huvudsakliga instrumentet för de placerare som velat ha en lång exponering mot den japanska aktiemarknaden, men det har på senare tid kommit att dyka upp en rad alternativ, utöver WisdomTrees DXJ så har Lyxor lanserat ett alternativ som replikerar utvecklingen på Nikkei 400. Under många år steg den japanska yenen konstant, och det saknades incitament att valutasäkra valutan. Uppgången var så kraftigt att de som valde att investera i Japan fick en värdeökning baserat på valutan, även om Tokyobörsen backade. Detta pågick till i mitten av november 2012

Diagrammet ovanför visar utvecklingen för Guggenheim Currency Shares Japanese (NYSEARCA:FXY). Diagrammet visar en inverterad bild av utvecklingen av den japanska yenen under denna tid, och det visar att yenen fallit kraftigt.

 

Hur kommer den japanska aktiemarknaden att utvecklas i framtiden?

Tittar vi på de senaste veckornas nyheter avseende Japan kan vi sammanfatta den nuvarande utvecklingen med att det är en potentiellt riskabel situation vi ser framför oss. Den 31 oktober chockade Bank of Japan aktiemarknaderna med ännu mer lättnader, något som fick Nikkei 225 att nå den högsta nivån på sju år. Dagen efter sade Marc Faber att de japanska lättnaderna är att betrakta som en Ponzi scam eftersom Bank of Japan köper alla de statliga obligationer från det japanska finansministeriet.

Den 5 november sade Haruhiko Kuroda att BOJ hade för avsikt att nå inflationsmålet om två procent snarast möjligt, samt att det inte finns någon gräns för vad Bank of Japan skall göra för att nå detta. Den exempellösa expansiv penningpolitik i Japan kan verka hjälp idag men det har ingen substans för det långa loppet. Ett land som försöker skapa inflation – till varje pris – kan hamna i ett scenario av typen ”Operationen lyckades, men patienten dog”. Genom att flytta kapital från den japanska statskassan till Bank of Japan skapas inga nya värden, utan det leder till att blåsa upp priset på tillgångar utan att värdena följer med. Det leder också till en svagare valuta och en illikvid obligationsmarknad. Samtidigt sväller balansräkningen för Bank of Japan och den japanska statsskulden.

Även de som hävdar att eftersom detta är inhemska skulder (utgivna i JPY), alltså ett intern nollsummespel, går det inte att bortse från det faktum att Japans utlandsskuld (i JPY termer) exploderat vid sidan av sin inhemska skuld som en följd av att den japanska yenen har försvagats så mycket på så kort tid.

Scenariot vi ser framför oss just nu är att den japanska yenen kommer att försvagas ytterligare i framtiden. Huruvida de japanska myndigheterna kommer att kunna skapa en inflation eller inte låter vi vara osagt, men oavsett om de luckas eller inte så är det sannolikt att detta kommer att leda till ytterligare en värdeminskning av den japanska yenen. Att skapa inflation innebär att den nuvarande penningpolitiken fortsätter, kanske till och med accelererar (som hände för en vecka sedan), och ekvationen här är tydlig: mer QE = svagare JPY.

Om BOJ väljer att inte skapa inflation innebär det att den nuvarande penningpolitiken misslyckats och inte kommer att återuppliva den japanska ekonomin. Ett misslyckande med att stimulera den egna ekonomin pekar också på en svagare valuta.

Dessa scenarion talar för att den som skall satsa på den japanska aktiemarknaden bör göra det med en valutahedge, endera direkt i den börshandlade fond eller genom att köpa ett separat instrument för detta.

USDJPY

 

Central Banks Continue to Drive the FX Market

Central Banks Continue to Drive the FX Market

ETFS Currency Weekly Central Banks Continue to Drive the FX Market

A weekly overview of global currency market developments. The report details the past week’s performance of G10 currency pairs and currency baskets, directional model signals for the week ahead, longer-term consensus currency forecasts, futures market positioning data and a macroeconomic commentary on the FX market.

 

Summary

 

Subtle shift prompts strong reaction for the FOMC.

CAD benefiting from US growth.

BOJ keeps pressure on JPY.

 

 

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

For more information contact

 

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

 

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

 

Third Parties

 

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Central Bank Rhetoric Key For Near-Term FX Moves

Central Bank Rhetoric Key For Near-Term FX Moves

ETFS Currency Weekly Central Bank Rhetoric Key For Near-Term FX Moves

A weekly overview of global currency market developments. The report details the past week’s performance of G10 currency pairs and currency baskets, directional model signals for the week ahead, longer-term consensus currency forecasts, futures market positioning data and a macroeconomic commentary on the FX market.

 

Summary

 

Stress tests no help for the Euro
Oil and rates to lift CAD
GBP stable for now, but weakness ahead
USD/JPY to re-test 110 level

 

 

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

For more information contact

 

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

 

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

 

Third Parties

 

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Fears of Rising Risk Premiums Drive Currency Volatility And Performance

Fears of Rising Risk Premiums Drive Currency Volatility And Performance

ETFS Currency Weekly Fears of Rising Risk Premiums Drive Currency Volatility And Performance

A weekly overview of global currency market developments. The report details the past week’s performance of G10 currency pairs and currency baskets, directional model signals for the week ahead, longer-term consensus currency forecasts, futures market positioning data and a macroeconomic commentary on the FX market.

 

Summary

 

GBP downtrend on more dovish Bank of England
Oil bottom signals upside for CAD, NOK

Risk or inflation the driver for JPY?

 

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

For more information contact

 

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

Important Information

General

 

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

 

Third Parties

 

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.