De populäraste valutorna och varför de är så populära
Forexmarknaden är världens största och mest likvida marknad, med triljoner dollar som handlas varje dag mellan miljontals parter. För de som precis börjat på forexmarknaden är ett av de första stegen att bekanta sig med några av de mer vanligt förekommande valutorna och deras populära användningsområden. Detta gäller inte bara för valutamarknaden utan också generellt. Låt oss ta en titt på flera populära valutor som alla forex observatörer ska känna till och några av de bakomliggande egenskaperna hos varje. Vi har tittat på de populäraste valutorna och varför de är så populära.
Den Amerikanska dollarn
Först och främst finns den amerikanska dollarn, som är den mest omsatta valutan på planeten. USD kan handlas i ett par med alla andra större valutor och fungerar ofta som mellanhand i triangelvalutatransaktioner. Detta beror på att USD fungerar som den oförutsedda globala reservvalutan, som innehas av nästan alla centralbanker och institutionella investeringsföretag i världen.
På grund av amerikanska dollarns globala acceptans, används den av vissa länder som en officiell valuta, i motsats till en lokal valuta, en ökning som kallas dollarization. Dessutom accepteras amerikanska dollarn allmänt i andra nationer, som fungerar som en informell alternativ betalningsform, medan de här nationerna behåller sin officiella lokala valuta.
Dollarn är också en viktig faktor på valutamarknaden för andra valutor. Den kan fungera som riktmärke eller målränta för länder som väljer att fixa eller pegga sina valutor till USD-värdet. Från och med 2011 har Kina sin valuta, renminbien, som fortfarande är knuten till dollarn, något som retar många ekonomer och centralbanker. Oftast väljer länderna att fixa sina växelkurser till USD för att stabilisera sin växelkurs snarare än att låta de fria (valutamarknaderna) fluktuera.
Euron
Även om denna valuta är relativt ny har euron snabbt blivit den näst mest omsatta valutan efter den amerikanska dollarn. Dessutom är euron världens näst största reservvaluta. Euron är officiella valutan för majoriteten av nationerna inom euroområdet. Euron introducerades på världsmarknaden den 1 januari 1999, med sedlar och mynt som trädde i omlopp tre år senare.
Utöver att vara den officiella valutan för de flesta euroländer, knyter många nationer inom Europa och Afrika sina valutor till euron. Detta av samma skäl som valutorna är knutna till dollarn – för att stabilisera växelkursen.
Euron som en allmänt använd och betrodd valuta som är den mycket utbredd i forexmarknaden, och lägger till likviditet i valfritt valutapar som det handlas i. Euron handlas gemensamt av spekulanter som ett spel på euroområdets och dess medlemsländers allmänna hälsa. Politiska händelser inom euroområdet kan ofta leda till stora handelsvolymer för euron. Detta gäller särskilt i förhållande till de länder som såg sina lokala räntor falla drastiskt vid införandet av euron, särskilt Italien, Grekland, Spanienoch Portugal. Euron kan vara den mest ”politiserade” valutan som handlas aktivt på valutamarknaden.
Den japanska yenen
Den japanska yenen är den mest omsatta valutan från Asien och ses av många som en proxy för den underliggande styrkan i Japans tillverkningsekonomi. När Japans ekonomi går bra, så går yenen (i vissa avseenden) bra. Många använder yenen för att mäta den övergripande hälsan i Stilla Havs-regionen, med beaktande av ekonomier som Sydkorea, Singaporeoch Thailand, eftersom dessa valutor handlas långt mindre på de globala valutamarknaden.
Yenen är också välkänd i forex cirklar för sin roll i carry trade. Med Japan som i princip har en nollräntepolitik under en stor del av 1990-talet och 2000-talet har handlarna lånat yenen nästan utan kostnad. De har sedan använt dessa för att investera i andra högre valutor runt om i världen, vilket berodde på skillnaderna i räntorna. Med carry trade som en så stor del av yenens närvaro på internationell nivå har den japanska valutans ständiga upplåning gjort uppvärdering till en svår uppgift. Även om yenen fortfarande handlar med samma grunder som någon annan valuta, är dess förhållande till internationella räntor, särskilt med de mer omsatta valutorna som dollarn och euron en stor determinant för yenens värde.
Det brittiska pundet
Det brittiska pundet, även känt som pund sterling, är den fjärde mest omsatta valutan på valutamarknaden. Det fungerar också som en stor reservvaluta på grund av dess relativa värde jämfört med andra globala valutor. Även om Storbritannienär en officiell medlem i Europeiska unionen valde landet att inte anta euron som sin officiella valuta av olika skäl. Till exempel historisk stolthet i pundet och upprätthållande av kontrollen över inhemska räntor. Av denna anledning kan pundet ses som ett rent spel på Storbritannien. Forexhandlare kommer ofta att basera sitt värde på den totala styrkan i den brittiska ekonomin och politisk stabilitet i sin regering. På grund av sitt höga värde gentemot andra valutor är pundet också ett viktigt valutaindex för många nationer och fungerar som en väldigt likvid komponent på valutamarknaden.
Den Schweiziska francen
Den schweiziska francen ses av många som en ”neutral” valuta. Mer korrekt betraktas den schweiziska francen som en tillflyktsort inom valutamarknaden, främst på grund av att schweizerfrancen tenderar att röra sig i en negativ korrelation med mer volatila råvaruvalutor som kanadensiska och australiensiska dollar tillsammans med amerikanska statsskuldväxlar. Den schweiziska nationalbanken har faktiskt varit känd för att vara ganska aktiv på valutamarknaden för att se till att francen handlas relativt snävt, att minska volatiliteten och hålla räntorna i linje.
Den kanadensiska Dollarn
Sist på vår lista tittar vi på den kanadensiska dollarn, även känd som loonie. Loonie är förmodligen världens främsta råvaruvaluta, vilket innebär att den rör sig i takt med råvarumarknaderna. Detta gäller särskilt råolja, ädelmetaller och mineraler. Med Kanada som sådan en stor exportör av sådana varor är loonien mycket flyktig mot rörelser i sina underliggande priser, särskilt råolja. Traders handlar ofta den kanadensiska dollarn för att spekulera på rörelserna för dessa varor eller som en hedge mot sina innehav i de underliggande kontrakten.
Dessutom ligger Kanadai närheten av världens största konsumentbas, USA. Detta gör att den kanadensiska ekonomin och den kanadensiska dollarn är högt korrelerad med styrkan i amerikansk ekonomi och rörelser i amerikansk dollar.
Slutsats
Som vi har sett har varje valuta särskilda egenskaper som påverkar dess underliggande värde och prisrörelser i förhållande till andra valutor på valutamarknaden. Förstå vad som rör en valuta och varför är ett avgörande steg för att bli en framgångsrik aktör på valutamarknaden.
2016 has been full of surprises and can be divided into three distinct phases defined by the EU referendum and US election.
Currently the market is in a period of re-pricing due to Trump’s proposed fiscal expansion plans.
The USD looks likely to hold onto recent gains, while the EUR look vulnerable to political uncertainty in the year to come.
Against all odds
Surprises have been commonplace in 2016 and have ensured that volatility has remained a prominent feature of the world’s currency markets. The year can almost be divided into three distinct phases marked around the shock outcomes in both the EU referendum and the US presidential election. In the period up to, and the month following, the Brexit vote, concerns over the economic impact of the referendum and reduced expectations of monetary tightening in the US saw safe havens like the JPY soar against the GBP and USD (rising 26% and 16% respectively from 1st January to the 6th July). These moves moderated somewhat until the US election, where Trump’s shock victory ushered in a complete shift in market assumptions and a corresponding re-pricing of financial assets. This is the current phase that we find ourselves in, characterised by the strongest trade weighted USD in over 14 years and a sharply weakening JPY. Going into 2017, we see healthy prospects for US growth and inflation buoying the USD, while in Europe the single currency risks being pressured by political uncertainty.
Click to enlarge
US reflation?
Markets appear to have interpreted Trump’s victory as a signal that the US will benefit from a large fiscal stimulus and infrastructure package in the years to come, helping to deliver both growth and inflation. While a lot of the details surrounding Trump’s future plan are currently uncertain, what seems clear is that the recent increase in inflation expectations have prompted the US Federal Reserve to pursue a more aggressive rate hike path. Should they follow through with the proposed three hikes in 2017 we see recent gains in the USD as being broadly sustained, although a near term pullback in the next few months may be due.
Populist sentiment tested
In Europe, scheduled parliamentary and presidential elections in a majority of the bloc’s largest nations have potential to test the Euro. Matteo Renzi’s recent resignation is a signal that anti-establishment sentiment on mainland Europe remains elevated and the growth of populist parties is not as remote a risk as market participants once thought. Combined with a European Central Bank (ECB) committed to at least another 12 months of asset purchases, risks for the EUR appear skewed to the downside.
Transitional Brexit deal to be brokered
Prospects for the GBP are centred on the progress of Brexit negotiations and the UK government’s ability to deliver an effective transitional agreement offering protection for Britain’s more exposed sectors, such as finance. We remain bullish on the currency and believe that it is currently trading near its structural nadir (see: GBP reaches rock bottom). However, it will remain volatile as markets scrutinise any plan Theresa May puts forward before the self-imposed March deadline for Article 50.
Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:
Currency ETPs
GBP Base
ETFS Long EUR Short GBP (GBUR)
ETFS Short EUR Long GBP (URGB)
ETFS Long USD Short GBP (GBUS)
ETFS Short USD Long GBP (USGB)
USD Base
ETFS Long GBP Short USD (LGBP)
ETFS Short GBP Long USD (SGBP)
ETFS Long EUR Short USD (LEUR)
ETFS Short EUR Long USD (SEUR)
EUR Base
ETFS Long USD Short EUR (XBJP)
ETFS Short USD Long EUR (XBJQ)
ETFS Long GBP Short EUR (EUGB)
ETFS Short GBP Long EUR (GBEU)
3x
ETFS 3x Long USD Short EUR (EUS3)
ETFS 3x Short USD Long EUR (USE3)
ETFS 3x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB3)
ETFS 3x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE3)
ETFS 3x Long GBP Short USD (LGB3)
ETFS 3x Short GBP Long USD (SGB3)
ETFS 3x Long EUR Short USD (LEU3)
ETFS 3x Short EUR Long USD (SEU3)
ETFS 3x Long USD Short GBP (USP3)
ETFS 3x Short USD Long GBP (PUS3)
ETFS 3x Long EUR Short GBP (EUP3)
ETFS 3x Short EUR Long GBP (SUP3)
5x
ETFS 5x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB5)
ETFS 5x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE5)
ETFS 5x Long USD Short EUR (5CH5)
ETFS 5x Short USD Long EUR (5CH6)
ETFS 5x Long USD Short GBP (USP5)
ETFS 5x Short USD Long GBP (PUS5)
Basket
ETFS Bullish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LGBB)
ETFS Bearish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SGBB)
ETFS Bullish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LUSB)
ETFS Bearish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SUSB)
ETFS Bullish EUR vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LEUB)
ETFS Bearish EUR vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SEUB)
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Tighter supply and low prices bode well for platinum
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Tighter supply and low prices bode well for platinum
Highlights
Metals with industrial applications attracted more than US$100mn inflows. Platinum stands out as a contrarian bet as prices rebound from 10-month low on signs of deepening supply deficit.
Investors continue to favour Euro despite elevated uncertainty ahead of key central bank meetings.
Weakness in oil prices triggered inflows into long oil ETPs after five weeks of outflows. We believe oil price will continue to trade range between US$40-55/bbl.
Silver inflows overwhelm gold as the metal records largest weekly inflows since March. Gold will likely remain under pressure ahead of the US Fed, Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meetings this week and the US election next week. Gold rose modestly, while US dollar slipped in the wake of Trump closing in on Clinton in polls amid the fall-out from FBI emails. Silver and metals with industrial applications in general took the lead last week as China looks set to meet its growth target of 6.7% this year. US$54mn went into long silver ETPs, US$39mn into long platinum ETPs, US$4.6mn into long copper ETPs and US$8.1mn into broad baskets of industrial metal ETPs.
Platinum could gain momentum trade as supply continues to tighten. Platinum price fell 18% since its August peak to a 10-month low the previous Friday. The threat of a massive strike in South African mines like in 2014 and the potential for the industry to be in deficit this year for the fifth consecutive year have surprisingly failed to support prices. We believe the plunge in net speculative long positions since early August explains most of the counterintuitive price weakness. ETP Investors have however increased their long positions in platinum ETPs highlighting that this level is an interesting entry point for bargain hunters betting on further supply tighteness in the coming year. Platinum ETPs recorded inflows last week for the fifth consecutive week totalling US$113mn.
First significant inflows in oil ETPs after five weeks of outflows. Oil prices rose 2% since the last OPEC meeting in September when members reached an agreement to limit oil output. While prices rallied following the news, we said that capping OPEC production at 33 million barrels alone will do little on its own to reduce the surplus and indeed oil prices fell 4% last week on rising US oil production and increasing sceptisim about OPEC’s ability to finalise the agreement. Investors appear split on oil’s next move. Last week bargain-hunters bought US$22mn of long oil ETPs, while US$7mn inflows into short oil ETPs highlight some investors scepticism.
Investors continue to increase positions in long Euro ETPs. Last week saw nearly US$25mn into long Euro ETPs. Around US$11mn were against GBP, US$8mn against USD and US$5mn against JPY. Short Euro ETPs also saw redemptions indicating investors view the euro area to be in decent shape ahead of the GDP and CPI releases this week.
Central banks on stage this week. The Fed, BoE, BoJ and RBA are all due to meet to decide on the future path for monetary policy this week. This could set the tone for a volatile week across all asset classes. A number of key economic data are also due to be released: EU GDP for Q3 and inflation data for October, US ISM manufacturing and China manufacturing PMI for October.
Video Presentation
Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
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The slightly hawkish FOMC statement failed to curb investors’ appetite for gold
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – The slightly hawkish FOMC statement failed to curb investors’ appetite for gold
• Gold inflows suggest investors continue to hedge against uncertainties ahead.
• Global equity ETPs attracted US$33mn. Inflows dominated by thematic ETPs related to robotics.
• The Bank of Japan easing measures fell short of expectations, boosting long JPY exposures.
Gold attracted US$277.6mn of flows this week suggesting the slightly hawkish FOMC statement failed to clear away uncertainty. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its July meeting but noted that near-term risks to the US economy have “diminished” after a rebound in US hiring in June. The odds for September hike – calculated from the Fed funds futures – increased modestly to 28%. Gold strengthened marginally over the past week, by 2.16% to around US$ 1,351 per troy ounce. Platinum showed the strongest price increase for the second consecutive week, rising by 6.15% to US$ 1,148 per troy ounce.
Inflows into crude oil ETPs rise by US$35.3mn, while Brent crude has entered a new bear market. The inflows in long oils (US$40mn) are the largest since February this year suggesting that investors see buying opportunities in the weakness of Brent. Brent price fell more than 20% since the peak of US$52.86 in June, reaching US$42 per barrel. The latest drift downward in crude oil prices comes as outages are reduced, there is an overhang of refined products and US rig counts rise.
Inflows into wheat ETPs rise for the 7th consecutive week. The International Grains Council revised upward (+7mn tons) its estimate for the global wheat production in the 2016-17 harvest year. This increase of supply, together with an upward revision of opening stocks, resulted in a 1.8% decline of wheat price on the week.
Global equity inflows increase US$33mn led by thematic ETPs related to robotics. In the meantime, investors continue to reduce their long positions in Europe equity ETPs – although at a moderate pace – in the wake of weaker macro indicators in the region. Last week, we saw US$3mn outflows from EU equity ETPs after inflows culminated at US$10.3mn mid-July.
Investors increase their exposure to JPY by US$18.2mn. The central bank of Japan (BoJ) enlarged its annual purchase of equity ETFs by JPY2.7tn to JPY6tn, while keeping its key monetary tools unchanged. Investors judge the current action insufficient to have a material impact on the inflation outlook. As a result, the JPY soared by 2.85% to 102.30 against the US dollar at close.
Key events to watch this week. The Bank of England meeting will be held on Thursday. The July PMI indicators showed signs of a coming recession in the UK. Investors expect a 25bps decrease of the base rate from 0.5% to 0.25%, to support the UK economy in its transition outside of EU. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices and more importantly the employment report will get the full attention of the market. A solid increase of nonfarm payrolls after the 287k rise in June would increase the odds for a rate hike in September.
Video Presentation
Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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• Commodities: Persistent surplus weighs on oil prices.
• Equities: Global equity market sell off continues amid weaker PMI and US payrolls data.
• Currencies: Dollar stages a comeback after August jobs report
The US Federal Open Market Committee will convene this week to discuss raising interest rates. We don’t believe they will pull the trigger on this occasion, given the uncertainty surrounding the deceleration of China and Europe and elevated financial market volatility. The last time the central bank increased rates was in 2006 and will not take this decision lightly. A policy reversal will be costly for the Fed’s reputation and we think the central bank will err on the side of caution while it assess whether these risks are likely to drive price expectations lower or hurt labour market prospects. A surprise rate rise could be gold price negative.
Commodities
Intensifying El Niño conditions drive agriculture prices higher. Cocoa rose 5.4% as El Niño drives dryness into West Africa where the majority of the world’s cocoa is grown. Wheat and corn prices rose ahead of the WASDE report by 2.5% and 3.5% respectively. El Niño could reverse some of the strong rains seen in Australia so far this season, hurting the wheat crop currently growing. US corn is currently vulnerable to weather changes. On the 15th September CONAB will release its Brazilian coffee harvest estimate. This report will end months of speculation about the size of the crop. There has been heightened uncertainty because of the highly volatile weather Brazil has experienced this season. Oil gave back part of the prior week’s gains. A surprisingly high inventory build led to a decline in of Brent 3.5% and fall in WTI of 1.8%.
Equities
Equity markets stabilise in a shortened week. The VIX (options implied volatility of the S&P 500) stabilised albeit above its long term historical trend with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices in the US finishing the week marginally higher. The MSCI China A-Share has given back of all of last week’s gains today after the release of weaker than expected industrial production. Labor Day and Victory Day respectively shorted the US and Chinese trading weeks. European bourses trended lower despite an upward GDP growth revision indicating that economic conditions are somewhat better than previously assumed. However, the looming threat of US rate rises and global financial market conditions tightening gave European markets little cause for cheer.
Currencies
Central banks continue to drive FX markets. The Kiwi depreciated last week as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts rates. This week, the FX market’s focus will be on the Fed’s rate decision. Consensus is still looking for a rate rise this week, but the futures market indicates that a rate rise is more likely in December. There is also scepticism about December, given that financial market liquidity is usually low in that month. While domestic conditions in the US may be looking healthy, the threat of global conditions unravelling the momentum remains at large. The Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan, two other policy makers of haven currency countries will host their respective monetary policy meetings, revealing their interpretation of recent financial market turmoil. We expect dovish rhetoric to depreciate the JPY and CHF.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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